{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$10.35 vs. cons ~$10.15",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Sales (Revenue)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.72B vs. cons ~$2.68B",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EBITDA As Defined Margin",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~52.7% vs. cons ~52.4%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$39.80-$41.20 (mid ~$40.50) vs. cons ~$39.80 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net Sales Guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$10,400-$10,550M (mid ~$10,475M) vs. cons ~$10,380M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 EBITDA As Defined Guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$5,420-$5,520M (mid ~$5,470M) vs. cons ~$5,420M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Commercial Aftermarket Growth Commentary (Middle East drag)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide/commentary ~high-single to low-double-digit growth maintained vs. cons fear of deceleration to mid-single-digit (Q4/FY2026 exit rate)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "TDG's track record of beat-and-raise plus resilient aftermarket demand should drive an initial positive pop, but the stock has already rallied ~7-8% off its mid-July lows into the print (Stellant withdrawal removed an overhang, Prince & Izant deal well-received), so much of the good news is pre-positioned. If the FY26 raise is proportionally smaller than the Q3 beat (a common TDG pattern - beat magnitude > guidance raise magnitude), the implied Q4 organic growth/margin bridge decelerates, prompting analysts to trim out-quarter and early-FY27 aftermarket normalization estimates even as headline numbers beat, causing gains to fade over the week. Elevated valuation (~39x trailing) leaves little multiple support if any commentary on Middle East-related CAM lag or FY27 aftermarket deceleration surfaces on the call.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}