| TPL |
Report |
Total revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$268M vs. cons ~$255M |
MEDIUM |
| TPL |
Report |
Diluted EPS (split-adj.) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.32 vs. cons ~$2.22 |
MEDIUM |
| TPL |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$205M vs. cons ~$193M |
MEDIUM |
| TPL |
Guide |
Oil realization / price durability (fwd) |
LOWER |
trajectory ~$80/bbl vs. cons ~$86/bbl (Q3'26) |
MEDIUM |
| TPL |
Guide |
Royalty production trajectory |
BETTER |
guide ~38 MBoe/d vs. cons ~37.5 MBoe/d (Q3'26) |
LOW |
| TPL |
Guide |
Data-center/power deal & Orla desal milestone |
UNKNOWN |
pred ~1 new signed deal/desal online vs. cons ~0 signed (2H'26) |
LOW |
| TPL |
Guide |
Capital return (special dividend/buyback) |
UNKNOWN |
pred special div possible + $0.60 regular vs. cons $0.60 regular (Q3'26) |
LOW |
| TPL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
LOW |
| TPL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.0% (FADE) |
Record Q2 is backward-looking and largely priced (peers XOM/CVX/MPC/FANG already printed blowouts; TPL is unhedged so upside was telegraphed). The forward driver is negative: Brent fell >5% on Aug 4 on Hormuz-reopening progress, so analysts cut Q3/Q4 oil-realization assumptions even after a Q2 beat — implicit out-period cuts pull estimates down. Stock has already round-tripped most of the war premium (~$540 peak to ~$396) and sold off ~9% into the print, so a beat gets faded toward 'peak-earnings' framing unless a concrete second data-center/power deal or desal economic read re-rates the forward narrative. |
MEDIUM |