{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$268M vs. cons ~$255M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS (split-adj.)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.32 vs. cons ~$2.22",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$205M vs. cons ~$193M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Oil realization / price durability (fwd)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "trajectory ~$80/bbl vs. cons ~$86/bbl (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Royalty production trajectory",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~38 MBoe/d vs. cons ~37.5 MBoe/d (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Data-center/power deal & Orla desal milestone",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred ~1 new signed deal/desal online vs. cons ~0 signed (2H'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return (special dividend/buyback)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred special div possible + $0.60 regular vs. cons $0.60 regular (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Record Q2 is backward-looking and largely priced (peers XOM/CVX/MPC/FANG already printed blowouts; TPL is unhedged so upside was telegraphed). The forward driver is negative: Brent fell >5% on Aug 4 on Hormuz-reopening progress, so analysts cut Q3/Q4 oil-realization assumptions even after a Q2 beat \u2014 implicit out-period cuts pull estimates down. Stock has already round-tripped most of the war premium (~$540 peak to ~$396) and sold off ~9% into the print, so a beat gets faded toward 'peak-earnings' framing unless a concrete second data-center/power deal or desal economic read re-rates the forward narrative.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}