TPL Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TPL Report Q2 2026 revenue BEAT pred ~$262.0M vs. cons $252.5M MEDIUM
TPL Report Q2 2026 diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.33 vs. cons $2.25 MEDIUM
TPL Report Q2 2026 oil and gas royalty production BEAT pred ~37.6 Mboe/d vs. cons 37.0 Mboe/d MEDIUM
TPL Guide Oil and gas royalty production outlook BETTER guide ~37.5 Mboe/d vs. cons 37.2 Mboe/d (2H 2026) LOW
TPL Guide Water-sales volume outlook BETTER guide ~0.90 MMbbl/d vs. cons 0.87 MMbbl/d (2H 2026) LOW
TPL Guide Phase 2B desalination initial operating throughput LOWER guide ~5.0 Mbbl/d vs. cons 10.0 Mbbl/d (2H 2026) MEDIUM
TPL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.7% LOW
TPL Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A commodity-driven Q2 beat is likely offset by limited quantified Project Kilby economics, slower desalination ramp and lower out-period commodity math; Q3 revenue revisions could move to ~$246M vs. pre-print consensus of $250M, while Q3 EPS could move to ~$2.17 vs. $2.22. LOW