| TPL |
Report |
Oil & gas royalty revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$132M vs. cons $126M |
MEDIUM |
| TPL |
Report |
Water-sales revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$52M vs. cons $52M |
MEDIUM |
| TPL |
Report |
Produced-water royalty revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$36M vs. cons $34M |
MEDIUM |
| TPL |
Guide |
Q3 2026 oil-and-gas royalty production outlook |
BETTER |
guide ~38.0 Mboe/d vs. cons 37.3 Mboe/d (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TPL |
Guide |
Q3 2026 sourced-water sales-volume outlook |
BETTER |
guide ~920 Mbbl/d vs. cons 875 Mbbl/d (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| TPL |
Guide |
Phase 2B desalination operating-throughput commentary |
BETTER |
guide ~7.0 Mbbl/d vs. cons 5.0 Mbbl/d (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| TPL |
Guide |
Project Kilby recurring-water-revenue timing commentary |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$0M vs. cons $0M (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TPL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| TPL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
A royalty and produced-water beat, coupled with ~38.0 Mboe/d Q3 production commentary versus 37.3 Mboe/d expected, should lift out-period royalty and EBITDA estimates; the key risk is limited near-term Project Kilby revenue of ~$0M versus ~$0M expected. |
MEDIUM |