TPL Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TPL Report Royalty Production (BOE/d) IN-LINE pred ~38,200 vs. cons 38,530 MEDIUM
TPL Report Adjusted EBITDA ($M) BEAT pred ~$215M vs. cons $210.6M MEDIUM
TPL Report Water Sales Revenue ($M) MISS pred ~$49M vs. cons $51.6M MEDIUM
TPL Guide Permian Activity Tone (Q2 2026 call) BETTER guide 'meaningful uptick' vs. Q1 'marginal uptick' MEDIUM
TPL Guide Data Center Pipeline (Q2 2026 call) UNCHANGED guide no new deal vs. market hoping for 2nd deal MEDIUM
TPL Guide Desalination Phase 2b (Q2 2026 call) BETTER guide first flow confirmed vs. 'nearly complete' HIGH
TPL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
TPL Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) FADE — EBITDA beat fades as water estimate cuts and no new data center deal remove the catalyst for multiple expansion; sell-side trims water segment MEDIUM