| TRGP |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.56B vs. cons ~$1.50B |
MEDIUM |
| TRGP |
Report |
Permian inlet volumes |
BEAT |
pred ~7,000 MMcf/d vs. cons ~6,850 MMcf/d |
MEDIUM |
| TRGP |
Report |
LPG export volumes |
BEAT |
pred ~465 MBbl/d vs. cons ~445 MBbl/d |
MEDIUM |
| TRGP |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$5.95B (raised, high end/above) vs. cons ~$5.85B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TRGP |
Guide |
FY2026 growth capex |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.5B vs. cons ~$4.5B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| TRGP |
Guide |
Waha marketing/optimization margin durability commentary |
BETTER |
pred ~$150M+ incremental H2 upside vs. cons ~$50M modeled (H2'26) |
LOW |
| TRGP |
Guide |
Capital returns (buyback pace) |
UNKNOWN |
pred ~$100M repurchased vs. cons ~$150M (Q2'26) |
LOW |
| TRGP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| TRGP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+2.0% (STABILIZE) |
A beat-and-raise print into a stock already down ~9% from its late-July peak (~$286 to ~$260) means expectations have partially reset, supporting a positive but not euphoric day-1 pop. Follow-through is capped because the debate shifts to how much of the 2026 Waha marketing/export windfall is repeatable into 2027 as Blackcomb/GCX egress relieves basis; out-period math (implicit fade of optimization margin) offsets the near-term beat, so the residual holds rather than compounds. Elevated 2026-2028 capex is also a FCF overhang limiting sustained multiple expansion. |
LOW |