TTD Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TTD Report Q2 2026 Revenue BEAT pred ~$760M vs. cons $752M MEDIUM
TTD Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$268M vs. cons $262M MEDIUM
TTD Report Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$0.43 vs. cons $0.41 LOW
TTD Guide Q3 2026 Revenue Guide LOWER guide ~$785M vs. cons $796M (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
TTD Guide Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guide LOWER guide ~$300M vs. cons $320M (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
TTD Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin Target UNCHANGED guide ~40% vs. cons ~40% (FY2026) MEDIUM
TTD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.5% MEDIUM
TTD Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) TTD has sold off in the days/weeks following each of the last 4 prints (Aug'25, Nov'25, Feb'26, May'26) as guides continually landed only marginally above the prior quarter's floor while consensus had already crept above that floor into the print, so even a modest Q2 beat vs. cons ($760M/$268M) likely comes with a Q3 guide (~$785M/~$300M) that sits below the ~$796M/~$320M Street was modeling for the back half — an implicit cut to out-period estimates. That combination (in-line-to-slight-beat current quarter, below-consensus forward quarter) has historically triggered analyst model cuts that build over the following days rather than reverse, especially with the Publicis/agency overhang, Nasdaq committee non-compliance cure deadline (9/21/26), and a still-green C-suite (CFO Olmstead's first full quarter) leaving limited credibility buffer for the guide to be taken at face value. MEDIUM