I'll research UBER before writing the preview. Let me gather recent earnings, filings, news, and price data.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and guidance, plus get price data.Let me get the Q1 2026 earnings release (for Q2 guidance) and Q2 2025 release (year-ago comps).I now have what I need. Let me write the preview.
Report date: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 (before U.S. market open) | Event: 2026Q2 Earnings Call Stock: ~$72.01 (Aug 4 close) | YTD: roughly –13% (from ~$82.86 on Jan 2)
Uber goes into this print with fundamentals firing on all cylinders — 20%+ gross bookings growth, expanding margins, and a fast-growing loyalty flywheel — but with the stock stuck in a "great business, contested future" debate. The autonomous-vehicle narrative, not the Q2 numbers, is likely to drive the reaction. Sentiment is genuinely split: bulls point to durable top-line growth and Uber One strength; bears are focused on the Waymo/Tesla threat to Mobility.
| Metric | Q2 2026 Guidance | Q2 2025 Actual | Implied Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Bookings | $56.25B – $57.75B | $46.76B | +20% to +24% reported (+18–22% cc, ~2pt FX tailwind) |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.78 – $0.82 | ~$0.59–$0.60* | +31% to +38% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $2.70B – $2.80B | $2.12B | +27% to +32% |
*Implied from the guided +31–38% growth range; Uber has migrated its headline profit metric from Adjusted EBITDA toward Non-GAAP Operating Income / Non-GAAP EPS (Adjusted EBITDA is being phased out).
Key modeling nuance: Revenue will again grow slower than gross bookings. In Q1 2026, "business model changes" (accounting/VAT reclassifications in certain markets) knocked ~9 points off reported revenue growth — revenue grew just 14% vs. gross bookings up 25%. Don't mistake the revenue/GB divergence for weakness; watch gross bookings, take rates and segment operating income instead.
Uber enters Q2 with three consecutive quarters of 21%+ constant-currency gross bookings growth. Q1 2026 highlights: - Gross bookings +21% cc ($53.7B); Trips +20% (3.6B); MAPCs +17% (199M). - Non-GAAP EPS +44% to $0.72 — profit scaling at more than 2x the top line. - Record $3B returned via buybacks in the quarter (under a $20B authorization first announced in Q2 2025); ~$2.3B free cash flow. - Mobility: GB +20% cc with record segment margins; U.S. Mobility accelerating. - Delivery: GB +23% cc, led by grocery & retail. - Freight: returned to growth for the first time in ~2 years (+6%).
This is the crux of the bear case and the most likely swing factor for the stock: - On July 24, news broke that Uber and Waymo will end their exclusivity in Austin and Atlanta in early 2028, with Waymo launching its own app there in January 2028 (existing Uber deployment runs through ~May 2028). Uber shares fell more than 4% that day (to ~$66), the YTD low. Subsequent reports (FT, CNBC) suggest Waymo may be looking to exit the Uber partnership entirely as the two increasingly compete. - Uber's counter-narrative is a capital-light "hybrid network" with 30+ AV partners (Nuro, Zoox, Pony, WeRide, Waabi, Wayve, Nvidia, Avride, plus a Rivian vehicle commitment). AV Mobility trips grew >10x YoY in Q1; Uber targets being live in up to 15 cities by year-end, launching Uber Autonomous Solutions (fleet management, depots, charging, financing via Santander, insurance via Marsh/Apollo). - Uber also disclosed it holds a ~19.7% Class A stake in Aurora and made a $100M investment in Travis Kalanick's Atoms (which acquired Pronto). It's clearly building optionality across the AV ecosystem.
What to listen for on the call: management's framing of the Waymo relationship post-exclusivity, evidence that AV is additive rather than cannibalistic (in Q1 they argued category position in SF/LA improved despite Waymo scaling), and any hard metrics on AV economics/utilization. Bears will scrutinize any hint that robotaxis are pressuring core Mobility pricing or share.
| Bull Case | Bear Case | |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | 20%+ GB growth, trip- and audience-led, broad-based across Mobility/Delivery/Freight | Growth inevitably decelerates; law of large numbers |
| Margins | Insurance leverage + AI productivity + Uber One = durable margin expansion | Delivery mix and competitive spend could cap upside |
| AV | Owns demand; hybrid model wins in a non-winner-take-all $1T TAM | Waymo/Tesla disintermediate Mobility; loss of exclusivity signals AV partners see Uber as a competitor, not a channel |
| Capital | Record buybacks, strong FCF, $20B authorization | Equity-investment revaluations create GAAP EPS noise (Q1 had a $1.5B pre-tax mark-to-market headwind) |
Expect Uber to likely meet or beat its guided ~+20% gross-bookings and $0.78–$0.82 EPS ranges — its recent pattern has been to deliver "at or above the high end." The financial trajectory (accelerating U.S. Mobility, 50M+ Uber One members, expanding margins, aggressive buybacks) remains among the strongest in large-cap consumer internet. But the report is a referendum on the AV question. With shares down mid-teens YTD and having gapped to lows on the July 24 Waymo news, the market's reaction will hinge less on the beat and more on: (1) whether management can convincingly frame AV as an opportunity rather than a threat, (2) any updated commentary on the Waymo relationship, and (3) the Q3/2026 outlook, especially whether Uber sustains 20%+ growth while guiding to continued margin expansion.
Three questions that will define the reaction: 1. Does U.S. Mobility growth accelerate again, confirming the insurance-savings elasticity thesis? 2. Any change to the AV roadmap (15-city target, partner count) or new commentary on Waymo? 3. Does the Q3 guide keep the "profit growing 2x the top line" story intact?
Note: I did not find published sell-side consensus figures in the sources reviewed, so growth comparisons above are anchored to company guidance and year-ago actuals rather than Street estimates.