Report Date: Wednesday, August 5, 2026, before market open | Call: 2026Q2 Earnings Call
Uber shares have had a rocky several months, sliding from roughly $87 in early January to the low-$70s heading into the print, with a sharp ~4% single-day drop on July 24 tied to Waymo-related headlines. Over the past month, Uber shares have recorded returns of -5.5% versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.5% change. Despite the pullback, sell-side sentiment remains constructive: the analysts' consensus view on UBER stock is bullish, with an overall "Strong Buy" rating, and among 50 analysts covering the stock, 36 suggest a "Strong Buy," four have a "Moderate Buy," nine provide a "Hold" rating, and one recommends a "Strong Sell."
The stock trades in the low $70s as the report approaches, positioning Uber in a critical setup for the print, and as one preview noted, with the broader market closely watching consumer spending patterns and gig economy trends, guidance will be as important as the quarter itself, since any signals about accelerating or decelerating demand in either Mobility or Delivery could override the headline results.
Coming out of Q1, management set Q2 guidance for: - Gross Bookings: $56.25B–$57.75B, representing 18%–22% YoY growth on a constant-currency basis (with a ~2pt FX tailwind to reported growth) - Non-GAAP EPS: $0.78–$0.82 (31%–38% YoY growth) - Adjusted EBITDA: $2.70B–$2.80B
Consensus has settled slightly above the midpoint of guidance: - EPS: ~$0.83–$0.84 consensus (range $0.54–$1.03 across ~21-32 analysts), implying roughly 32% YoY growth from $0.63 a year ago - Revenue: ~$14.2B–$14.3B consensus, implying ~12-13% YoY growth - Gross Bookings: ~$57.2B consensus (Mobility ~$29.0B, Delivery ~$26.9B) - MAPCs: ~206M (vs. 180M a year ago); Trips: ~3.9B
Sell-side previews are largely aligned with or slightly ahead of the Street: BMO's analyst expects Uber to report gross bookings of $57.4 billion for Q2 2026, compared with the Street's estimate of $57.2 billion, revenue of $14.3 billion, and Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $2.77 billion, in line with the Street's consensus. Bank of America is similarly constructive, forecasting gross bookings of $57.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.77 billion, expecting Q2 revenue of about $14.2 billion, in line with consensus, and noting its aggregated credit and debit card data point to potential upside in both the US mobility and delivery businesses.
Notably, one quant-based model is more cautious near-term: Zacks' model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for UBER for the June quarter, and it has an Earnings ESP of -3.04% and a Zacks Rank #3. Uber's beat/miss track record has been strong but not perfect: in the trailing four quarters, this company's earnings surpassed estimates on three occasions and missed the mark in the other quarter, the average beat being 89.6%.
Uber's Q1 print (reported May 6) beat estimates and drove an 8.5% single-day rally: Gross Bookings rose 25% year-over-year to $53.7 billion, revenue increasing 14% to $13.2 billion, and trips growing 20% to 3.6 billion, driven by 17% growth in Monthly Active Platform Consumers, while operating income surged 57% to a record $1.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA increased 33% to $2.5 billion, and adjusted EPS jumped 44% to $0.72, while free cash flow reached $2.3 billion. CFO Balaji Krishnamurthy framed it as strength from multiple angles: "We are off to an exceptional start to 2026, with Gross Bookings growth exceeding 21% for the third consecutive quarter and earnings scaling at more than twice our topline." Uber also returned $3B to shareholders via buybacks in the quarter and Uber One crossed 50 million members, now driving roughly half of total Gross Bookings.
Worth flagging: GAAP EPS was only $0.13 in Q1 versus Non-GAAP EPS of $0.72, due to a $1.5B pre-tax mark-to-market headwind on equity investments (e.g., stakes in Aurora and other AV partners). This non-cash volatility is why full-year GAAP/consensus EPS comps can look distorted (full-year 2026 EPS estimates of ~$2.94–$2.97 vs. $5.30 in FY25) even as the underlying Non-GAAP operating story keeps improving — investors should watch for another swing here given Uber's growing basket of AV equity stakes.
This has been the dominant stock driver over the past month. Uber and Waymo will end their exclusivity arrangement in Atlanta and Austin, Texas, in early 2028, and more broadly "the US AV supply uncertainty (Waymo partnership news, Lucid's declining cash position) has been the top near-term stock driver, and US supply commentary may be the most important aspect of the Q2 call." Sell-side reaction has actually turned somewhat favorable on the split: "We believe shedding Waymo is likely good for UBER in the long run given it now has more flexibility to scale in the US with many partners," and Jefferies noted Uber has built a network of more than 20 autonomous vehicle partnerships over the past two and a half years, including more than 10 in the United States, reducing reliance on any single technology provider, arguing "UBER is well-positioned to win in AVs without Waymo." Management will likely reiterate its diversified strategy — global partnerships, large user base and fleet management capabilities position it to help autonomous vehicle developers scale while maintaining an asset-light model — and provide updates on its 15-city AV deployment target, Uber Autonomous Solutions, and new partners (Nuro, Zoox, NVIDIA, Waabi, Wayve, Rivian, Autobrains/Munich). Expect questions on whether AV competition (Waymo, Tesla robotaxi) is starting to pressure US Mobility trip growth in cities like SF and LA, an issue bulls and bears are actively debating: bears express concern about secular risks to the Mobility business from autonomous driving competition, particularly from Waymo and Tesla, while bulls highlight the company's healthy top-line growth trajectory, including strength in the Uber One membership business.
There's also a live regulatory/political subplot: Uber has been lobbying against a Washington D.C. bill that would allow fully-driverless AV deployment, arguing it would create a Waymo monopoly, while siding with labor unions concerned about driver displacement — a notable reversal given Uber's historically adversarial relationship with organized labor.
Uber's largest-ever deal will be a major topic. Uber agreed to acquire Delivery Hero in a deal that values the Berlin-headquartered food delivery company at $14.8 billion, with the transaction expected to be accretive to Non-GAAP EPS upon close, with high-single-digit percentage accretion by year three. As a result of the deal, Uber's combined mobility and delivery footprint will grow to 99 markets from 79. Investors will want detail on financing (partly via a bridge loan), integration timeline, and regulatory approval risk, since the purchase will make Uber's delivery platform one of the largest in the world, at least the largest outside of China, and will likely face regulatory scrutiny. BofA flagged it also expects discussion around the rationale for its planned Delivery Hero deal, US mobility demand, and cross-platform synergies.
On the Q1 call, CFO Krishnamurthy detailed meaningful insurance cost leverage feeding into pricing and trip growth, particularly in California: management expects continued acceleration in US Mobility through the year as savings get passed through to riders, with LA and SF trip trends already outperforming.
Membership scale (50M+ members, ~50% of Gross Bookings, spending "3x more" than non-members) remains a core bull pillar, alongside newer cross-platform pushes like Uber Reserve, hotel bookings (Expedia partnership), and grocery/retail delivery expansion.
Uber has been leaning into AI on two fronts simultaneously: "Uber cut 10% of its customer service jobs, leveraging artificial intelligence adoption to execute the reduction," while on the Q1 call management acknowledged stepping up AI infrastructure spend beyond original budget, offset by slower headcount growth — a dynamic likely to resurface as investors probe margin trajectory for the back half of the year.
Freight returned to growth in Q1 after nearly two years of declines — watch for confirmation this trend is holding, especially amid the Aurora self-driving truck partnership.
Uber heads into Q2 earnings with strong underlying momentum (accelerating Mobility, robust Delivery growth, record Uber One engagement, expanding margins) but against a backdrop of elevated stock volatility driven almost entirely by the unraveling Waymo relationship, AV competitive anxiety, and integration/regulatory questions around the transformative Delivery Hero acquisition. The quarter itself is likely to look solid on fundamentals — consensus implies ~13% revenue growth and ~32% EPS growth — but the stock's reaction will hinge heavily on management's commentary about US AV competitive dynamics and the durability of growth into the second half of 2026.