| VST |
Report |
Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.65B vs. cons ~$1.60B |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.55 vs. cons $2.43 |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Report |
Retail segment Adj. EBITDA (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$790M vs. cons ~$760M |
LOW |
| VST |
Guide |
FY2026 Ongoing Adj. EBITDA guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide reaffirm ~$7.2B midpoint ($6.8-7.6B) vs. cons ~$7.2B (FY2026, ex-Cogentrix) |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Guide |
FY2026 Adj. FCFbG guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.325B midpoint ($3.925-4.725B) vs. cons ~$4.3B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Guide |
2027 Adj. EBITDA midpoint opportunity |
BETTER |
guide ~$7.6-7.8B vs. cons ~$7.6B (FY2027), lifted by PJM 10,924 MW cleared at $325/MW-day |
LOW |
| VST |
Guide |
Cogentrix close & pro-forma guidance refresh |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~+$0.75B EBITDA add (5,500 MW, 2H'26 close) vs. cons $0 in-model (FY2027 pro-forma) |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Guide |
Buyback pace / remaining authorization |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.475B remaining, accelerated into weakness vs. cons ~$600M YTD returned (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+3.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+2.0% (STABILIZE) |
Deeply oversold into the print (down ~17% from the 7/23 high, ~-10% in sympathy with NRG's crush), so a Q2 EBITDA/EPS beat plus a guidance reaffirm, accelerated buybacks and PJM $325/MW-day tailwind drives a relief bounce (day-1 residual ~+3% on beta ~1.2). But follow-through is capped: the beat is largely hedge/weather timing (98% hedged for '26) so out-period estimates barely move, and Cogentrix pro-forma raise likely deferred until close — leaving no fresh upward revision fuel. PJM clear and PTC floor prevent a downward out-period cut, so the move stabilizes/holds rather than fades hard or extends, netting ~+2% cumulative unless a new large-load/nuclear contract is signed. |
LOW |