{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.65B vs. cons ~$1.60B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.55 vs. cons $2.43",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Retail segment Adj. EBITDA (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$790M vs. cons ~$760M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Ongoing Adj. EBITDA guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide reaffirm ~$7.2B midpoint ($6.8-7.6B) vs. cons ~$7.2B (FY2026, ex-Cogentrix)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adj. FCFbG guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.325B midpoint ($3.925-4.725B) vs. cons ~$4.3B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2027 Adj. EBITDA midpoint opportunity",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.6-7.8B vs. cons ~$7.6B (FY2027), lifted by PJM 10,924 MW cleared at $325/MW-day",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Cogentrix close & pro-forma guidance refresh",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~+$0.75B EBITDA add (5,500 MW, 2H'26 close) vs. cons $0 in-model (FY2027 pro-forma)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Buyback pace / remaining authorization",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.475B remaining, accelerated into weakness vs. cons ~$600M YTD returned (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Deeply oversold into the print (down ~17% from the 7/23 high, ~-10% in sympathy with NRG's crush), so a Q2 EBITDA/EPS beat plus a guidance reaffirm, accelerated buybacks and PJM $325/MW-day tailwind drives a relief bounce (day-1 residual ~+3% on beta ~1.2). But follow-through is capped: the beat is largely hedge/weather timing (98% hedged for '26) so out-period estimates barely move, and Cogentrix pro-forma raise likely deferred until close \u2014 leaving no fresh upward revision fuel. PJM clear and PTC floor prevent a downward out-period cut, so the move stabilizes/holds rather than fades hard or extends, netting ~+2% cumulative unless a new large-load/nuclear contract is signed.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}