| VST |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA (Ongoing Operations, Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.85B vs. cons ~$1.79B |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Report |
Diluted EPS (GAAP, Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.65 vs. cons ~$2.43 |
LOW |
| VST |
Report |
Total Revenue (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.65B vs. cons ~$5.43B |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance (reaffirm vs. raise) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$7.2B midpoint (range $6.8B-$7.6B reaffirmed) vs. cons ~$7.2B midpoint (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| VST |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted FCF before Growth guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.33B midpoint (range $3.925B-$4.725B reaffirmed) vs. cons ~$4.3B midpoint (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| VST |
Guide |
2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range (ex-Cogentrix/Meta) |
BETTER |
guide ~$7.7B midpoint (modest raise reflecting $325/MW-day PJM auction clear) vs. cons/prior ~$7.6B midpoint (2027) |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Guide |
Cogentrix acquisition closing timeline / guidance inclusion |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~Q4 2026 close (still excluded from guidance) vs. cons ~Q3/Q4 2026 close (2026) |
LOW |
| VST |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.8% (FADE) |
A likely Q2 beat (hot summer ERCOT demand, PJM capacity tailwinds, fully-hedged book) should spark an initial relief rally given the stock is already ~34% off highs and peers (NRG -15%, TLN -3%, CEG -1.5%) traded down hard into their own Q2 prints this week. But management is expected to reaffirm rather than raise full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA/FCF guidance (Cogentrix/Meta PPA upside still excluded pending deal close), which caps the magnitude of forward estimate revisions even after a quarterly beat — the classic 'beat but no raise' setup that lets sell-side models trim implied 2H26/2027 assumptions once the initial pop fades. Layered on top is the same-day FERC filing on large-load curtailment rules and the looming September PJM backstop reliability auction, both of which keep a regulatory/political overhang on the multiple and have already proven capable of overriding fundamentals in this tape (Q1's clean beat still closed down 2.7%). Net effect: a modest bounce on day 1 that fades over the week as the guidance-reaffirm-not-raise dynamic and PJM policy headlines reassert themselves. |
MEDIUM |