{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (Ongoing Operations, Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.85B vs. cons ~$1.79B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS (GAAP, Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.65 vs. cons ~$2.43",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.65B vs. cons ~$5.43B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance (reaffirm vs. raise)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.2B midpoint (range $6.8B-$7.6B reaffirmed) vs. cons ~$7.2B midpoint (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted FCF before Growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.33B midpoint (range $3.925B-$4.725B reaffirmed) vs. cons ~$4.3B midpoint (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range (ex-Cogentrix/Meta)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.7B midpoint (modest raise reflecting $325/MW-day PJM auction clear) vs. cons/prior ~$7.6B midpoint (2027)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Cogentrix acquisition closing timeline / guidance inclusion",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~Q4 2026 close (still excluded from guidance) vs. cons ~Q3/Q4 2026 close (2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A likely Q2 beat (hot summer ERCOT demand, PJM capacity tailwinds, fully-hedged book) should spark an initial relief rally given the stock is already ~34% off highs and peers (NRG -15%, TLN -3%, CEG -1.5%) traded down hard into their own Q2 prints this week. But management is expected to reaffirm rather than raise full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA/FCF guidance (Cogentrix/Meta PPA upside still excluded pending deal close), which caps the magnitude of forward estimate revisions even after a quarterly beat \u2014 the classic 'beat but no raise' setup that lets sell-side models trim implied 2H26/2027 assumptions once the initial pop fades. Layered on top is the same-day FERC filing on large-load curtailment rules and the looming September PJM backstop reliability auction, both of which keep a regulatory/political overhang on the multiple and have already proven capable of overriding fundamentals in this tape (Q1's clean beat still closed down 2.7%). Net effect: a modest bounce on day 1 that fades over the week as the guidance-reaffirm-not-raise dynamic and PJM policy headlines reassert themselves.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}