VST Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-07

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
VST Report Q2 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$1.62B vs. cons $1.55B MEDIUM
VST Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.30 vs. cons $2.21 LOW
VST Report Q2 2026 Revenue MISS pred ~$5.80B vs. cons $5.88B LOW
VST Guide Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA UNCHANGED guide ~$7.20B vs. cons $7.25B (FY2026 midpoint) HIGH
VST Guide Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCF before Growth UNCHANGED guide ~$4.33B vs. cons $4.35B (FY2026 midpoint) HIGH
VST Guide Pro Forma Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA Including Cogentrix and Meta LOWER guide ~$8.20B vs. cons $8.35B (FY2027 framework) LOW
VST Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
VST Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.4% (FADE) A Q2 EBITDA beat and the stock's pre-report pullback support an initial rebound, but an FY2027 framework of ~$8.20B vs. cons $8.35B implies modest out-period estimate cuts; absent a new large-load contract or imminent Cogentrix close, revisions should pull the five-day residual below the day-one gain. LOW