VST Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-07

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
VST Report Adj. EBITDA (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1,750M vs. cons $1,638M MEDIUM
VST Report EBITDA - Texas/ERCOT (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$240M vs. cons $303M MEDIUM
VST Report EBITDA - East/PJM (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$720M vs. cons $618M MEDIUM
VST Guide Adj. EBITDA (FY 2026) BETTER guide ~$7.5B mid vs. cons $7,385M MEDIUM
VST Guide Adj. EBITDA (FY 2027) UNCHANGED guide maintained vs. cons $8,320M MEDIUM
VST Guide Nuclear contracting tone (qualitative) BETTER progress update or new deal signal vs. no update LOW
VST Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +5.0% MEDIUM
VST Return 5-day cumulative residual +7.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH - estimate revisions follow the FY raise; back-half consensus moves up, pulling the stock higher over 5 days MEDIUM