| VST |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
MISS |
pred ~$1.610B vs. cons $1.638B |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Report |
Capacity revenue |
MISS |
pred ~$390M vs. cons $402M |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Report |
Diluted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$1.480 vs. cons $1.513 |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Guide |
FY26 Adjusted EBITDA |
UNCHANGED |
guide $6.8B-$7.6B vs. cons $7.385B |
MEDIUM |
| VST |
Guide |
FY26 Adjusted FCFbG |
UNCHANGED |
guide $3.925B-$4.725B vs. cons UNVERIFIED |
LOW |
| VST |
Guide |
Cogentrix / contracting commentary |
UNCHANGED |
maintain H2 close target and no incremental formal update before close vs. cons UNVERIFIED |
LOW |
| VST |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| VST |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
FOLLOW-THROUGH - estimate risk persists after a miss-plus-maintain package |
LOW |