| WBD |
Report |
Global streaming (HBO Max) subscribers |
BEAT |
pred ~147M vs. cons ~145M |
MEDIUM |
| WBD |
Report |
Streaming Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$560M vs. cons ~$490M |
MEDIUM |
| WBD |
Report |
Total Adjusted EBITDA (Studios tough comp + GLN decline) |
MISS |
pred ~$1.95B vs. cons ~$2.05B |
MEDIUM |
| WBD |
Guide |
HBO Max global subscribers reaffirm (FY2026 year-end) |
UNCHANGED |
guide >150M vs. cons ~150M (FY2026 YE) |
MEDIUM |
| WBD |
Guide |
WB Studios annual Adjusted EBITDA target (FY2026) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.0B vs. cons ~$2.9B (FY2026) |
LOW |
| WBD |
Guide |
Free cash flow / transaction-cost drag (FY2026) |
LOWER |
guide ~$1.5B vs. cons ~$2.0B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| WBD |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+0.5% |
— |
LOW |
| WBD |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.5% (STABILIZE) |
WBD trades as a merger-arb name (~$26 vs. $31 offer, ~50/50 implied odds), so the print is secondary to deal-odds headlines (March 2027 trial, Newsom/Bonta settlement push, $7B breakup-fee floor). A clean streaming beat modestly firms the standalone-break floor and drives a small day-1 pop, but total EBITDA misses on the brutal Studios comp and ugly FCF, so out-period standalone estimates get trimmed even after the beat. Net revisions roughly neutral; any pop fades and the stock re-anchors to the arb spread — hence stabilize rather than follow-through. |
LOW |