{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Global streaming (HBO Max) subscribers",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~147M vs. cons ~145M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Streaming Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$560M vs. cons ~$490M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Adjusted EBITDA (Studios tough comp + GLN decline)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.95B vs. cons ~$2.05B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "HBO Max global subscribers reaffirm (FY2026 year-end)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide >150M vs. cons ~150M (FY2026 YE)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "WB Studios annual Adjusted EBITDA target (FY2026)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.0B vs. cons ~$2.9B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Free cash flow / transaction-cost drag (FY2026)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.5B vs. cons ~$2.0B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "WBD trades as a merger-arb name (~$26 vs. $31 offer, ~50/50 implied odds), so the print is secondary to deal-odds headlines (March 2027 trial, Newsom/Bonta settlement push, $7B breakup-fee floor). A clean streaming beat modestly firms the standalone-break floor and drives a small day-1 pop, but total EBITDA misses on the brutal Studios comp and ugly FCF, so out-period standalone estimates get trimmed even after the beat. Net revisions roughly neutral; any pop fades and the stock re-anchors to the arb spread \u2014 hence stabilize rather than follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}