WDC Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
WDC Report Q4 FY26 Revenue (non-GAAP) BEAT pred ~$3.78B vs. cons ~$3.69B HIGH
WDC Report Q4 FY26 Diluted EPS (non-GAAP) BEAT pred ~$3.55 vs. cons ~$3.32 HIGH
WDC Report Q4 FY26 Gross Margin (non-GAAP, %) BEAT pred ~53.0% vs. cons/guide-high ~52.0% MEDIUM
WDC Guide Q1 FY27 Revenue Guidance BETTER guide ~$4.00B vs. cons ~$3.85B (Q1 FY2027, quarter ending ~Sept 2026) MEDIUM
WDC Guide Q1 FY27 EPS Guidance BETTER guide ~$3.70 vs. cons ~$3.55 (Q1 FY2027) MEDIUM
WDC Guide Nearline Pricing/LTA Trajectory Commentary BETTER guide ~9-10% YoY pricing growth vs. cons ~6-7% embedded (2H CY2026 into CY2027 LTAs) LOW
WDC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% LOW
WDC Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Q4 beat is largely pre-baked given WDC's 4-quarter streak of double-digit beats and a stock that already ran +18% into the print; the real swing factor is the Q1 FY27/out-year guide. Given Seagate's read-through (nearline sold out into 2028, but STX still sold off -3.7% on its own beat-and-raise) and the deceleration math embedded in sequential revenue/EPS growth rates (Q4 guide already implies growth cooling from Q3's 45% to ~40%), any incremental guide that doesn't clear the sky-high whisper bar likely triggers sell-side model updates that trim out-quarter estimates even after a current-quarter beat. Combined with elevated valuation/positioning (5x+ TTM run, wide $500-$1050 PT dispersion) and lingering China/CXMT overhang, this points to continuation of an initial negative-to-mixed reaction over the following days rather than a reversal. MEDIUM