WYNN Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
WYNN Report Consolidated Adjusted Property EBITDAR BEAT pred ~$575M vs. cons ~$565M MEDIUM
WYNN Report Macau Adjusted Property EBITDAR (Wynn Palace + Wynn Macau) BEAT pred ~$272M vs. cons ~$258M MEDIUM
WYNN Report Las Vegas Adjusted Property EBITDAR MISS pred ~$226M vs. cons ~$234M MEDIUM
WYNN Guide Wynn Al Marjan Island (UAE) opening timeline LOWER guide ~late-2027/early-2028 open vs. cons ~2027 (opening timeline) MEDIUM
WYNN Guide Macau QTD/July EBITDAR run-rate BETTER guide ~$3.5M/day vs. cons ~$3.3M/day (July QTD) LOW
WYNN Guide FY2026 expansionary capex (Enclave/Macau + Vegas remodel) UNCHANGED guide ~$400-450M vs. cons ~$425M (FY2026) LOW
WYNN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% LOW
WYNN Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) Oversold positioning (~-20% YTD, near 52-week lows) plus a Macau-driven EBITDAR beat likely sparks a relief pop day 1, but the binding variable is the UAE timeline. A quantified Al Marjan slip toward late-2027/2028 pulls out-period (2027-28) EBITDAR contribution estimates down even as Q2 prints a beat, while tough Vegas/Boston comps and Encore Tower remodel disruption cap upside. Net: initial gain fades as sell-side trims the out-period, leaving a muted 5-day residual. LOW