ZBRA Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ZBRA Report Q2 2026 Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$1.505B vs. cons $1.50B MEDIUM
ZBRA Report Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS MISS pred ~$4.28 vs. cons $4.36 MEDIUM
ZBRA Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin MISS pred ~20.7% vs. cons 21.2% MEDIUM
ZBRA Guide FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance LOWER guide ~$18.10-$18.40 (midpoint $18.25) vs. cons $18.55 (FY2026) MEDIUM
ZBRA Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin Guidance LOWER guide ~21.5%-21.8% vs. cons 22.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ZBRA Guide H2 2026 Memory/DRAM Cost & Supply Commentary LOWER guide ~implies incremental ~1-1.5pt unmitigated margin drag into H2 vs. cons assumption of full offset (H2 2026) LOW
ZBRA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.5% MEDIUM
ZBRA Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.5% (FADE) Stock priced in a lot of good news (17-18% YTD, near 52-week highs, sell-side targets marching to $330+) heading into a print where consensus sits at the top of management's own Q2 guide. Since the May Q1 call, spot DRAM/NAND contract prices surged ~60% in Q2 - materially worse than the 2pt headwind management said it could fully offset via pricing/supplier co-planning - creating real risk that the EBITDA margin/EPS beat/mitigation narrative cracks this quarter. Even if headline EPS is roughly in line, the read-through to H2 (where management previously assured 'no indication our second-half allocation would be any less than first half') is the more important driver: any signal that memory cost inflation is outrunning mitigation forces sell-side to trim FY26/FY27 EPS and margin estimates in the days after the print, producing a fade rather than follow-through, especially given how extended the stock already is into the print (elevated bar + rich valuation = asymmetric downside on anything short of a clean beat-and-raise). MEDIUM