Breakthrough Clinical Results
Novo Nordisk announced that the FDA accepted its New Drug Application (NDA) for a 25 mg oral formulation of Wegovy (semaglutide) for chronic weight management in adults with obesity or overweight. If approved, it would be the first oral GLP-1 treatment for obesity. The NDA is based on the OASIS 4 phase 3 trial, which evaluated the efficacy and safety of oral semaglutide 25 mg versus placebo in adults with obesity or overweight and comorbidities. The FDA action date is expected in Q4 2025. Wegovy is currently approved as an injection for weight loss and cardiovascular risk reduction in adults and children with obesity or overweight and related medical problems.
Key Highlights
- FDA accepted Novo Nordisk's NDA for oral semaglutide 25mg.
- If approved, it will be the first oral GLP-1 treatment for obesity.
- The NDA is based on results from the Phase 3 OASIS 4 trial.
- FDA action date is expected in Q4 2025.
Incidence and Prevalence
Global Obesity Trends
The prevalence of overweight and obesity is a growing global health concern, affecting both adults and children. Here's a summary of the latest estimates based on the provided PubMed articles:
Adults:
- 2021: An estimated 1.00 billion adult males and 1.11 billion adult females globally were classified as having overweight or obesity. The highest age-standardized prevalence was observed in Oceania and North Africa and the Middle East, with many countries reporting prevalence exceeding 80%.
- 2021 (USA): The prevalence of obesity in US adults was 40.3%, with severe obesity at 9.4%. Severe obesity was more prevalent in women than men across all age groups. Obesity was more common in adults aged 40-59 compared to those aged 20-39 and 60+. Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher had lower obesity prevalence than those with less education.
- 2050 Projection: If current trends continue, the number of adults with overweight or obesity is projected to reach 3.80 billion, representing over half of the anticipated global adult population. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see a 254.8% increase, with Nigeria potentially having the fourth largest population of individuals with overweight or obesity (141 million).
- Regional Disparities: While China, India, and the USA will continue to have large numbers of individuals with overweight or obesity, the most rapid rise in obesity prevalence has been in North Africa and the Middle East.
Children and Adolescents:
- 1990-2021: The combined prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents doubled, while obesity alone tripled. In 2021, 93.1 million individuals aged 5-14 and 80.6 million aged 15-24 had obesity. The highest prevalence in 2021 was in North Africa and the Middle East, with the largest increases since 1990 seen in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania.
- 2023 Estimate: A meta-analysis of studies from 2000-2023 found an overall obesity prevalence of 8.5% in children and adolescents, with significant variation across countries (0.4% in Vanuatu to 28.4% in Puerto Rico). Higher prevalence was linked to higher Human Development Index scores and high-income countries.
- 2050 Projection: Global increases in overweight are expected to stabilize, but the absolute number of children and adolescents with obesity is projected to increase substantially, particularly between 2022 and 2030. By 2050, the highest prevalence is expected to remain in North Africa and the Middle East, with the largest increases in Southeast Asia, East Asia, Oceania, and South Asia. Globally, 15.6% of those aged 5-14 and 14.2% of those aged 15-24 are projected to have obesity.
- Obesity Predominance: By 2050, several regions are projected to transition to obesity predominance (where obesity is more prevalent than overweight), including North Africa, the Middle East, Tropical Latin America, parts of East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Australasia, and high-income North America.
Key Observations:
- Obesity is increasing across all age groups and regions globally, posing a significant public health challenge.
- Interventions are needed at multiple levels, including policy changes, clinical innovations, and population-level prevention strategies.
- Addressing the structural drivers of obesity is crucial for long-term success.
- Disparities exist based on socioeconomic status, race/ethnicity, and geographic location, requiring targeted interventions.
It's important to note that these are estimates and projections, and the actual figures may vary. Continued monitoring and research are essential to track the evolving obesity epidemic and inform effective interventions.
Risk Factors and Comorbidities
Obesity is a complex, multifactorial condition influenced by a combination of genetic, socioeconomic, cultural, and lifestyle factors. Identifying the top three risk factors and comorbidities can be challenging due to their interconnected nature and varying prevalence across studies. However, based on the provided medical literature, the following emerge as prominent factors:
1. Genetic Predisposition:
- Multiple studies highlight the significant role of genetics in obesity. While not a single gene, numerous genetic variants contribute to an individual's susceptibility to weight gain and obesity. Family history of obesity is a strong indicator of genetic predisposition. Some specific genetic syndromes, though rare, directly cause obesity, such as Prader-Willi syndrome, Bardet-Biedl syndrome, and Alström syndrome. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common genetic variants associated with increased body mass index (BMI), further supporting the genetic component.
- For example, one study mentions that in children, obesity cases can be categorized as syndromic (e.g., Prader-Willi syndrome) or non-syndromic, with the latter further divided into monogenic and polygenic forms. The study emphasizes that advances in genetics and genomics are crucial for understanding childhood obesity and developing better clinical tools and therapies.
2. Unhealthy Lifestyle:
- Dietary habits, physical inactivity, and sedentary behaviors are consistently identified as major risk factors for obesity. Consumption of energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods, coupled with insufficient physical activity, creates a positive energy balance, leading to weight gain. Urban development and modern lifestyles often promote these unhealthy habits.
- One study mentions that physical activity, diet, and smoking were the top three lifestyle factors included in lifestyle scores/indices. Compared to participants with the least-healthy lifestyles, those with the healthiest lifestyles had a 43% lower metabolic syndrome risk.
- Another study emphasizes that in the past two decades, a high prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease, such as obesity, physical inactivity, and poor diet, has been observed among young individuals living in developed countries.
3. Metabolic Syndrome and Related Comorbidities:
- Obesity is a key component of metabolic syndrome, a cluster of conditions that includes hypertension, dyslipidemia (abnormal blood lipid levels), and insulin resistance or type 2 diabetes. These conditions often occur together and significantly increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. Obesity itself can directly contribute to the development of these comorbidities through various mechanisms, including chronic inflammation, hormonal imbalances, and altered metabolic pathways.
- One study found that the most prevalent chronic comorbidities in patients with severe/fatal COVID-19 were obesity (42%) and hypertension (40%), followed by diabetes (17%), cardiovascular disease (13%), and others.
- Another study mentions that obesity is a major risk factor for metabolic diseases, and the metabolic risk of obesity largely depends on body weight distribution, with visceral adipose tissues being closely associated with obesity comorbidities, including type 2 diabetes, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, cardiovascular disease, and certain types of cancer.
- One study states that obesity is a major risk factor for the development of diabetes. Both obesity and diabetes rates have continued to increase in tandem and pose increased mortality for patients and increased health care costs for the community.
- Another study mentions that hypertension and type 2 diabetes are common comorbidities, with hypertension being twice as frequent in patients with diabetes. Moreover, patients with hypertension often exhibit insulin resistance and are at greater risk of developing diabetes.
It's important to note that these factors are interconnected. For example, genetic predisposition can influence an individual's response to certain diets or their propensity for physical activity, while unhealthy lifestyles can exacerbate the effects of genetic risk. Similarly, obesity can lead to metabolic syndrome, which further increases the risk of other comorbidities. Addressing these factors comprehensively is crucial for effective obesity prevention and management.
Drug used in other indications
Semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA), is being investigated for several indications beyond obesity and weight management. These include:
- Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM): Semaglutide is approved for T2DM treatment, with trials exploring different doses, formulations (oral and subcutaneous), and combinations with other antidiabetic agents. Studies like SUSTAIN, PIONEER, and SURE have examined its efficacy in improving glycemic control (HbA1c reduction, fasting blood glucose) and promoting weight loss in T2DM patients. Intervention models include comparing semaglutide to placebo, other GLP-1RAs (liraglutide, dulaglutide, exenatide), and other antidiabetic drug classes (sitagliptin, empagliflozin, canagliflozin, insulin glargine). Trials also explore semaglutide as monotherapy or add-on therapy to existing medications like metformin.
- Cardiovascular Outcomes: Several trials have investigated semaglutide's impact on cardiovascular events in individuals with T2DM and/or obesity. SUSTAIN 6, PIONEER 6, SELECT, and STEP HFpEF are examples of trials assessing major adverse cardiovascular events, heart failure outcomes, and cardiometabolic risk factors. Intervention models typically involve comparing semaglutide to placebo or standard care, often in populations with established cardiovascular disease or high risk.
- Diabetic Retinopathy: Research is ongoing to evaluate semaglutide's effects on diabetic retinopathy, a common complication of T2DM. Intervention models would likely compare semaglutide to placebo or standard treatments for retinopathy, assessing changes in retinal thickness or progression of the disease.
- Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD): Semaglutide is being studied for its potential benefits in patients with CKD, particularly those with T2DM. Trials may investigate its impact on renal function decline, albuminuria, and cardiovascular outcomes in this population. Intervention models could involve comparing semaglutide to placebo or standard CKD therapies.
- Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH): Studies are exploring semaglutide's efficacy in treating NASH, a liver disease often associated with obesity and T2DM. Intervention models would likely compare semaglutide to placebo or other NASH treatments, assessing changes in liver enzymes, liver fat content, and disease progression.
- Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS): Research is investigating semaglutide's potential benefits in women with PCOS, a hormonal disorder often linked to obesity and insulin resistance. Trials may examine its impact on weight loss, hormonal imbalances, and metabolic parameters. Intervention models would likely compare semaglutide to placebo or other PCOS treatments.
In addition to these specific indications, semaglutide's potential role in other conditions related to obesity or metabolic dysfunction is also being explored. These include obstructive sleep apnea and other weight-related comorbidities. Intervention models for these trials would vary depending on the specific condition being studied, but would generally involve comparing semaglutide to placebo or existing treatments, assessing relevant clinical outcomes.