- But other key indicators have been far less robust in 2025. If Trump is right, and an unprecedented economic boom is about to take hold, the foundations appear fragile. The cost of living and its sharp rise, for many Americans, in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic was central to Trumps fight for re-election in 2024.
The rate increase will bump the average Social Security retirement benefit from $1,873 per month (as of September 2024) to $1,919 in 2025. (Although readers should note that average Social Security benefits may also fluctuate due to a variety of external circumstances.)
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These include large tariff increases on imports from China and targeted increases on some other trade partners or product groups, as well as a sharp decline in net migration, which has been an important driver of the easing of the labor market in recent years. As a result of these shifts in aggregate demand and supply, we think the Feds preferred measure of core PCE inflation will get stuck at close to 2.5% year over year through 2025 and 2026 (Chart 1).
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- While the number of Layer 2 networks expanded throughout the year with notable 2025 entrants including Unichain and Celo none were able to surpass Base in user activity. This dynamic shifted in Q4, when Polygon experienced a sharp acceleration in adoption. Daily active users started surpassing Base from November on the back of network upgrades, institutional adoption and prediction market taking off on its platform. Its latest tech upgrade, Madhugiri boosted TPS by more than 40% and increased block gas limit by 33.33% while ensuring compatibility with Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade.
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