{ From user Max Henrion, Model Gcc at Mon 17-Mar-08 11:43 PM} Softwareversion 4.1.0 { System Variables with non-default values: } Time := Sequence( 1975, 2100, 5 ) Numberwidth := 2 Samplesize := 50 Distribsize := 21 Typechecking := 1 Checking := 1 Graphwindows := 10 Randomseed := 1997 Showhier := 1 Saveoptions := 2 Savevalues := 0 Distresol := 1 Cdfresol := 1 Randomtype := 2 Allwarnings := 0 Attribute Reference Attribute The Attribute Date_bough Askattribute Reference,Variable,Yes Model Gcc Title: Global~ climate~ change Description: A model to explore effects of global climate change due t~~ o emissions of radiatively important trace substances (RITS), such as~~ CO2, other greenhouse gases, and aerosols.~ This model is under continuing development. Believe the structure, n~~ ot the numbers! Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi~ Department of Engineering and Public Policy~ Carnegie Mellon University. Date: Wed, Oct 30, 1991 1:51 PM Saveauthor: Max Henrion Savedate: Mon 17-Mar-08 11:43 PM Defaultsize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,7,44,428,434,17 Diagramcolor: 58981,65535,52427 Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 14 Fileinfo: 0,Model Gcc,2,2,0,0,C:\Documents and Settings\Max Henrion\M~~ y Documents\Ana intro Webinar\Ana demos\ICAM_3-1.ANA Pagesetup: (01000050004800480000000002DA0228FFE1FFE202F902465000052803~~ FC00010050004800480000000002DA022800000000006400000000000000000000000~~ 1270F0001000100000000000000000000000000120000026400000318000000002272~~ 00010001000300020000000000000000FE1C01000000) Module The_integrated_clima Title: The Integrated Climate Assessment Model (ICAM) Description: The general relationships pertinent to climate change are~~ displayed in the connected diagram at the top. Author: Hadi Date: Wed, Apr 30, 1997 3:24 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 208,288,0 Nodesize: 188,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,1, Diagstate: 1,6,27,428,430,17 Nodecolor: 1,-13109,-26215 Diagramcolor: 1,-31129,-26215 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 14 Module Emissions Title: Energy & Emissions Description: This is the sub-model where the emissions of various rits~~ from natural and anthroogenic sources are calculated. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Wed, Oct 30, 1991 3:26 PM Defaultsize: 44,20 Nodelocation: 80,312,0 Nodesize: 60,36 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Diagstate: 1,117,255,359,299,17 Nodecolor: 52428,52428,52428 Diagramcolor: 55705,55705,55705 Fontstyle: Arial, 9 Module F_energy_mod Title: Energy Model Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 9 Sep, 1994 10:14 Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 112,40 Nodesize: 60,32 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1 Diagstate: 1,41,59,456,319,17 Nodecolor: -13512,-11464,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Module Gas_produc2 Title: Gas Production & Pricing Description: The natural gas supply model. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 13 Sep, 1994 08:45 Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 224,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,52,93,398,227,17 Module Gas_pricin Title: Gas Pricing & Discovery Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Dec 8, 1994 17:21 Defaultsize: 44,20 Nodelocation: 264,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,357,51,403,255,17 Chance Dp_gas Title: Change in Gas Prices Definition: Dynamic(scen_fill,((P_gas-P_gas[Time-1])/P_gas[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 288,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,15,334,632,142,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective P_gas Title: Gas Prices Through Time Units: $/GJ Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill+Initial_gas_price),Ipcc_gas_price_B2+(I~~ f (((What_is_the_time_hor*Gas_produc1)>(Realized_g-Cumulative1)) And ~~ (Gas_produc1>0)) Then (P_gas[Time-1]*What_is_the_level_of) Else (P_ga~~ s[Time-1]*Gas_prices_fall))) Nodelocation: 288,176 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,216,226 Valuestate: 1,133,67,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Discovery_gas Title: Price hike may lead to new gas discoveries Definition: Dynamic(0,0,(If (Scenario_fossil_fuel='NO') Then 0 Else (I~~ f (Dp_gas[Time-2]>=(What_is_the_level_of-1)) Then new_discovery Else ~~ 0))) Nodelocation: 88,32 Nodesize: 52,24 Windstate: 1,241,365 Valuestate: 1,40,145,686,232,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Gas_prices_fall Title: Gas prices drop with new discovery Definition: Dynamic(1,(If (Discovery_gas>0) Then (1/What_is_the_level_~~ of) Else 1)) Nodelocation: 88,176 Nodesize: 52,24 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Cum_gas_discovery Title: Cumulative Gas Discoveries Definition: dynamic(scen_fill,if discovery_gas > 0 then Cumulative1+Cu~~ m_gas_discovery[time-1] else Cum_gas_discovery[time-1]) Nodelocation: 192,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,1,MIDM Nodecolor: 1,-1,-1 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Initial_gas_price Title: Initial gas price Units: $/GJ Definition: Normal( 2, 1m ) Nodelocation: 328,128 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Ipcc_gas_price_b2 Title: IPCC Gas Price Adder B2 Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then 0.05 Else (If (Choose~~ _an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then 0.05 Else 0)) Nodelocation: 320,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Gas_pricin Module Gas_production Title: Gas Production Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 104,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,52,184,472,326,17 Chance Realized_g Title: Realized Gas Resrves Units: EJ Definition: cum_gas_discovery+~ (Evaluate_p((Gas_reserves), UF_Fuel)) Nodelocation: 200,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,120,92,416,303,1,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Objective Gas_produc1 Title: Gas Production through Time Units: EJ/yr Definition: Dynamic(((45.66*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((54*U_fuelq)+Scen_fil~~ l),((60*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((79.5*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),(If (Are_gas_r~~ e[Time-1]=1) Then 0 Else Slice(Q_fuels_2[Time-1],Fuels,1))) Nodelocation: 288,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,236,179 Valuestate: 1,15,43,632,434,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0 Chance Cumulative1 Title: Cumulative Gas Production Units: EJ Definition: Dynamic(0,(Cumulative1[Time-1]+(5*Gas_produc1))) Nodelocation: 368,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,110,51,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0 Chance Are_gas_re Title: Are Gas Reserves Exhausted? Definition: Dynamic(0,(Ifonly (Cumulative1>Realized_g) Then 1 Else 0))~~ Nodelocation: 200,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,561,487,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Gas_reserves Title: Gas Reserves Description: This is the possible range of gas reserve values. Definition: Triangular( 7500, 15K, 18K ) Nodelocation: 64,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,156,185 Valuestate: 1,72,82,771,528,1,PDFP Nodecolor: 1,-1,-1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:8000~ Xmaximum:18K~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:400u~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance Growth_of_ Title: Growth of gas Production Since 1975 Definition: Dynamic(1, (Gas_produc1/Gas_produc)) Nodelocation: 376,248 Nodesize: 52,24 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Gas_produc Title: Gas Production in 1975 Definition: Dynamic(Gas_produc1,Gas_produc[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 208,248 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,325,176 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Gas_production Close Gas_produc2 Module Coal_produ Title: Coal Production & Pricing Description: The coal supply model. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 13 Sep, 1994 08:45 Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 224,240 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,40,40,393,222,17 Module Coal_pricing Title: Coal Pricing Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Tue, Dec 6, 1994 7:19 Defaultsize: 44,20 Nodelocation: 264,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,61,53,480,376,17 Objective Dp_coal Title: Change in Coal Price Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),((P_coal-P_coal[Time-1])/P_coal[Time-1~~ ])) Nodelocation: 360,272,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance P_coal Title: Coal Price Through Time Units: $/GJ Definition: Dynamic(((Scen_fill+Initial_coal_price)+Rent_extra),(Rent_~~ extra+Ipcc_coal_adder_b2+(If (((4*What_is_the_time_hor)*Coal_produ1)>~~ (Realized_c-Cumulative4)) Then (P_coal[Time-1]*What_is_the_level_of) ~~ Else P_coal[Time-1]))) Nodelocation: 200,272,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,334,274 Valuestate: 1,192,80,526,379,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance What_level_of_rent_1 Title: What Level of Rent is Captured by Coal Producers? Description: There is rent to be captured by coal producers as the pr~~ ice of gas and oil rise, due to resource limitations.~ Coal_rent_sens*~ Evaluate_p(Uniform( 0, 0.02 ), UF_Fuel) Definition: Coal_rent_sens*~ Evaluate_p(rent_scenario, UF_Fuel) Nodelocation: 104,160,1 Nodesize: 52,28 Aliases: Alias What_level_of_rent_i Chance Rent_extra Title: Rent Extracted Description: Coal prices can rise not because of resource restrictions~~ , but due to higher price of competitors. Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,(Total_pric*What_level_of_rent_1)) Nodelocation: 200,192,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,149,328 Valuestate: 1,136,146,632,434,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Next_cheap Title: Next cheapest Fossil Description: This module calculates the price of the next cheapest fos~~ sil alternative. Definition: (If (P_Oil0) Th~~ en (Next_cheap-P_coal[Time-1]) Else 0)) Nodelocation: 288,160,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,632,142,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Initial_coal_price Title: Initial coal price Units: $/GJ Definition: normal(1.7, 1m) Nodelocation: 88,272,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Rent_scenario Title: Rent Scenario Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then Rent_a2 Else (If (Cho~~ ose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then Rent_b2 Else Base_rent)) Nodelocation: 104,104,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM Module Modifications_to_ic1 Title: Modifications to ICAM to Simulate IPCC Scenarios Author: Default Date: Thu, Nov 04, 1999 3:40 PM Nodelocation: 160,40,1 Nodesize: 64,28 Chance Base_rent Title: Base Rent Definition: Uniform( 0, 0.02 ) Nodelocation: 48,16,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Rent_a2 Title: Rent A2 Definition: 0.003 Nodelocation: 136,16,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Rent_b2 Title: Rent b2 Definition: 0.5 Nodelocation: 200,48,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Ipcc_coal_adder_b2 Title: IPCC Coal Adder B2 Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then 0.025 Else (If (Choos~~ e_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then 0.05 Else 0)) Nodelocation: 48,24,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Modifications_to_ic1 Close Coal_pricing Module Coal_production Title: Coal Production Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 120,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,104,114,481,364,17 Chance Realized_c Title: Realized Coal Reserves Units: EJ Definition: (Evaluate_p((Coal_reserves), UF_Fuel)) Nodelocation: 192,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM Objective Coal_produ1 Title: Coal Production Through Time Units: Ej/yr Definition: Dynamic(((72*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((78*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),~~ ((90*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((98*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),Slice(Q_fuels_2[Tim~~ e-1],Fuels,3)) Nodelocation: 296,200 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,248,258 Valuestate: 1,395,319,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Cumulative4 Title: Cumulative Coal Production Units: Ej Description: Dynamic(0*carbon_tax,(Cum_coalq[Time-1]+5*coalq_t)) Definition: Dynamic(0,(Cumulative4[Time-1]+(5*Coal_produ1))) Nodelocation: 360,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Are_coal_r Title: Are Coal Reserves Exhausted? Definition: Dynamic(0,(Ifonly (Cumulative4>Realized_c) Then 1 Else 0))~~ Nodelocation: 192,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Coal_reserves Title: Coal Reserves Definition: Triangular( 300K, 700k, 1400k ) Nodelocation: 56,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodecolor: 1,-1,-1 Chance Coal_produ2 Title: Coal Production in 1975 Definition: Dynamic(Coal_produ1,Coal_produ2[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 192,264 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Growth_in_1 Title: Growth in Coal Production Definition: Dynamic(1,(Coal_produ1/Coal_produ2)) Nodelocation: 384,264 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Coal_production Close Coal_produ Module Non_fossil Title: Non-Fossil Production & Pricing Description: The non-fossil supply model. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 13 Sep, 1994 08:45 Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 80,144 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,83,64,476,356,17 Objective Non_fossil2 Title: Non-fossil Production Through Time Units: EJ/yr Definition: Dynamic(((14.1*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((23.15*U_fuelq)+Scen_f~~ ill),((37.4*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((15*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),Slice(Q_fuel~~ s_2[Time-1],Fuels,4)) Nodelocation: 336,240 Nodesize: 52,24 Windstate: 1,112,93 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0 Chance Cumulative3 Title: Cumulative Non-fossil Production Units: EJ Description: Dynamic(0,(Cum_coalq[Time-1]+5*coalq_t)) Definition: Dynamic(100+scen_fill,(Cumulative3[Time-1]+(5*Non_fossil2)~~ )) Nodelocation: 336,312 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective P_non_fossil Title: Non-fossil Price Through Time Units: $/GJ Description: Dynamic(Non_fossil_prices_wo,(If ((Choose_control_strat=S~~ lice(Objective1,Objective1,99)) And (Time>2015)) Then Non_fossil_pric~~ es_wi Else Non_fossil_prices_wo)) Definition: Non_fossil_prices_wo Nodelocation: 336,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,55,62,644,564,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:40~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Dp_non_fossil Title: Change in Price of Non-fossil Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),((P_non_fossil-P_non_fossil[Time-1])/P~~ _non_fossil[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 336,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Backstop_p Title: Backstop Price for Non-fossil Units: $/GJ Definition: ((Bs_p_sens*Evaluate_p(Normal(16.38,2)*Produce_and_learn,U~~ f_fuel))+(Scen_fill)) Nodelocation: 72,96 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Rate_of_bs Title: Rate of Backstop Price Decline Description: Evaluate_p(uniform(0.85,.99), UF_Fuel) Definition: Evaluate_p(uniform(0.85,.99), UF_Fuel) Nodelocation: 208,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Bs_p_unc Title: Uncertainty in Back Stop Price Pressure Description: This is where a scalar multiplier is used to change the e~~ xternality price charged for renewable and non-fossil energy sources.~~ Definition: Ipcc_price_sce1 Nodelocation: 208,240 Nodesize: 52,24 Chance Congestion_penalty Title: Congestion Leads to Externality Costs Definition: dynamic(scen_fill, scen_fill, scen_fill, scen_fill, scen_f~~ ill, ~ BS_P_Unc*(3.33E-3*Non_fossil2[time-1] +~ 3.33E-6*Non_fossil2[time-1]^2 +~ 3.33E-9*Non_fossil2[time-1]^3 )) Nodelocation: 208,168 Nodesize: 56,28 Aliases: Alias What_is_the_level_o2 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Module Emf_accelerated_tech Title: EMF Accelerated Technology Assumptions Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Feb 1, 1996 1:56 PM Nodelocation: 336,160 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,212,78,466,232,17 Variable Emf_q_bm Title: EMF Quantity of Cheap Biomass Units: EJ Definition: array(non_fossil_index, [80, 320, 0]) Nodelocation: 72,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable Emf_p_bm Title: EMF Price of Cheap Biomass Definition: array(non_fossil_index, [1.4, 2.8, 0]) Nodelocation: 72,72 Nodesize: 52,20 Index Non_fossil_index Title: Non-fossil Index Definition: ['Low Priced','Mid Priced','High Priced'] Nodelocation: 48,136 Nodesize: 44,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Low Priced','Mid Priced','High Priced']}~~ Variable Non_fossil_q Title: Non-fossil Q Definition: Table(Non_fossil_index)(~ if Non_fossil2 > slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 1) then slice(emf_~~ q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 1)~ else non_fossil2,~ if (non_fossil2 - slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 1)) > ~ slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 2) then slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_~~ index, 2) ~ else ~ if (non_fossil2 - slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 1)) < 0 then 0~ else (non_fossil2 - slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 1)), ~ if Non_fossil2 - (~ slice(emf_q_bm,Non_fossil_index, 1)+~ slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 2)~ ) > 0 then Non_fossil2 - (~ slice(emf_q_bm,Non_fossil_index, 1)+~ slice(emf_q_bm, Non_fossil_index, 2)~ ) else 0~ ) Nodelocation: 192,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,102,204 Defnstate: 1,120,130,586,309,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,92,83,672,511,0,SAMP Reformval: [Time,Non_fossil_index] Variable Non_fossil_p Title: Non-fossil P Definition: Table(Non_fossil_index)(~ Slice(Emf_p_bm,Non_fossil_index,1),Slice(Emf_p_bm,Non_fossil_index,2)~~ ,Non_fossil_prices_wo) Nodelocation: 192,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Non_fossil_prices_wi Title: Price with EMF Definition: dynamic(sum((non_fossil_q*non_fossil_p), Non_fossil_index)~~ /non_fossil2,~ sum((non_fossil_q*non_fossil_p), Non_fossil_index)/non_fossil2) Nodelocation: 304,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,72,88,824,513,0,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Close Emf_accelerated_tech Chance Non_fossil_prices_wo Title: Non Fossil Prices~ Without Biomass Definition: Dynamic((2.2*Backstop_p),(Congestion_penalty+(If (Non_foss~~ il_prices_wo[Time-1]<=Backstop_p) Then Backstop_p Else (Non_fossil_pr~~ ices_wo[Time-1]*Rate_of_bs)))) Nodelocation: 208,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,180,86,526,411,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Produce_and_learn Title: Production Lowers Prices Definition: if Scenario_scale_econo = 'YES' then ((Cumulative3/100)^le~~ arning_index)/(Cumulative3/100)~ else 1 Nodelocation: 72,312 Nodesize: 52,24 Valuestate: 1,323,78,463,444,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Ipcc_price_sce1 Title: IPCC Price Scenario I Description: if Scenario ='A1' then 0 ~ if Scenario ='A2' then 0.5 ~ else 0.1 Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then 0 Else (If (Choose_an~~ _ipcc_scena='A2') Then 0.5 Else 0.1)) Nodelocation: 136,256 Nodesize: 52,20 Close Non_fossil Module Oil_produc Title: Oil Production & Pricing Units: $/GJ Description: The oil supply model. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 13 Sep, 1994 08:45 Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 368,144 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,153,40,370,167,17 Module Oil_pricin Title: Oil Pricing & Discovery Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Dec 8, 1994 17:21 Defaultsize: 44,20 Nodelocation: 248,64 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,341,192,409,243,17 Chance Dp_oil Title: Change in Oil Price Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),((P_oil-P_oil[Time-1])/P_oil[Time-1]))~~ Nodelocation: 256,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,10,122,632,142,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective P_oil Title: Oil Price Through Time Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill+Initial_oil_price),Ipcc_oil_price_b2+(I~~ f (((What_is_the_time_hor*Oil_produc1)>(Realized_o-Cumulative2)) And ~~ (Oil_produc1>0)) Then (P_oil[Time-1]*What_is_the_level_of) Else (P_oi~~ l[Time-1]*Oil_prices_fall))) Nodelocation: 256,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,72,83 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Discovery_oil Title: Discovery of Oil Definition: Dynamic(0,0,(If (Scenario_fossil_fuel='NO') Then 0 Else (I~~ f (Dp_oil[Time-2]>=(What_is_the_level_of-1)) Then New_discovery Else ~~ 0))) Nodelocation: 104,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Oil_prices_fall Title: Oil Prices Fall With Discovery Definition: Dynamic(1,(If (Discovery_oil>0) Then (1/What_is_the_level_~~ of) Else 1)) Nodelocation: 104,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Cum_oil_discovery Title: Cumulative Oil Discoveries Definition: dynamic(scen_fill,if discovery_oil > 0 then Cumulative2+Cu~~ m_oil_discovery[time-1] else ~ Cum_oil_discovery[time-1]) Nodelocation: 184,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,MIDM Nodecolor: 1,-1,-1 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Initial_oil_price Title: Initial oil price Units: $/GJ Definition: Normal( 2, 1m ) Nodelocation: 328,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Ipcc_oil_price_b2 Title: IPCC Oil Price Adder B2 Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then 0.05 Else (If (Choose~~ _an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then 0.05 Else 0)) Nodelocation: 328,88 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Oil_pricin Module Oil_production Title: Oil Production Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM Nodelocation: 104,64 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,334,101,449,243,17 Chance Realized_o Title: Realized Oil Reserves Units: EJ Definition: Cum_oil_discovery+~ (Evaluate_p((oil_reserves), UF_Fuel)) Nodelocation: 192,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,1,42,636,434,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective Oil_produc1 Title: Oil Production Through Time Units: EJ/yr Definition: Dynamic(((121*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((126*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill~~ ),((116*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),((131*U_fuelq)+Scen_fill),(If (Are_oil_re~~ [Time-1]=1) Then 0 Else Slice(Q_fuels_2[Time-1],Fuels,2))) Nodelocation: 264,200 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,83,156 Valuestate: 1,290,283,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Cumulative2 Title: Cumulative Oil Production Units: EJ Definition: Dynamic(0,(Cumulative2[Time-1]+(5*Oil_produc1))) Nodelocation: 344,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,678,483,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Are_oil_re Title: Are Oil Reserves Exhausted? Definition: Dynamic(0,(Ifonly (Cumulative2>Realized_o) Then 1 Else 0))~~ Nodelocation: 192,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,369,450,0,MIDM Chance Oil_reserves Title: Oil Reserves Definition: Triangular( 7500, 15K, 18K ) Nodelocation: 64,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 1,-1,-1 Close Oil_production Close Oil_produc Module Demand_con Title: Demand Conservation & Substitution Description: In this module a number of important issues are calculate~~ d. Historic consumption data are used to calibrate the pre 1990 data~~ . The increasing price of energy is thought to impose a drag on econ~~ omic growth. This feedback on the economy is calculated here. Growt~~ h is demand for energy is determined by economic growth and the auton~~ omous energy efficiency index. Energy use is calculated assuming gl~~ obal markets for all fuels. Shares for each region are determined by~~ relative rates of economic growth and AEEI. As the price of fuels c~~ hange, the demand adjusts through conservation and fuel switching. A~~ long-run interfuel substitution model is adopted here with 1/4 respo~~ nse in each five year time period following price changes with the fu~~ ll long-run response being felt in 20 years. If the price of non-fos~~ sil fuels is lower than the fossil alternatives, the inter-fuel subst~~ itutions are switched to non-fossil. A small price hurdle is built i~~ n so that aversion to non-fossil as a new technology can be adequatel~~ y represented. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 14 Sep, 1994 09:28 Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 224,144 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,104,118,469,247,17 Index Fuels Title: Fuels Definition: ['Gas','Oil','Coal','Other'] Nodelocation: 160,312 Nodesize: 52,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Gas','Oil','Coal','Other']} Index Fuels1 Title: Fuels1 Definition: ['Gas', 'Oil','Coal','Other'] Nodelocation: 56,312 Nodesize: 52,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Gas','Oil','Coal','Other']} Module Parameters_affecting Title: Parameters Affecting Energy Prices Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 16 Sep, 1994 10:36 Nodelocation: 160,112 Nodesize: 60,36 Diagstate: 1,145,122,483,483,1 Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-8737 Chance What_is_the_time_hor Title: What is the Time Horizon for Scarcity Price Hikes? Description: This defines the time horizon at which scarcity is recogn~~ ized. For example, if the value here is 15, when the reserve to prod~~ uction ratio for a fuel falls below 15, the price is hiked. Definition: Evaluate_p(timing_scenario, UF_Fuel) Nodelocation: 240,272 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,STAT Aliases: Alias Scarcity_horizon Chance What_is_the_level_of Title: What is the Level of Scarcity Price Hike? Description: Once the scarcity has been recognized, this is the rate a~~ t which the price is hiked in each time period. Definition: Dynamic(Pricing_scenario, Pricing_scenario) Nodelocation: 232,104 Nodesize: 52,24 Windstate: 1,103,167 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,1,PDFP Aliases: Alias What_is_the_level_o1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1.2~ Xmaximum:1.8~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Variable Reg_fuel_subs Title: Regional Fuel Price Subsidies in 1990 Units: $/GJ Definition: Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,1.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,1,1,1.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0.2,1,1,0,0,0.5,1,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0.5,0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 368,168 Nodesize: 44,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Reformdef: [Fuels,Regions_12] Chance Base_price_hike Title: Base Price Hike Definition: dynamic(normal(1.5, 0.15), normal(1.5, 0.15)) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,1,PDFP Chance A2_price_hike Title: A2 Price HIke Definition: dynamic(Normal( 1.25, 0.1 ), Normal( 1.25, 0.1 )) Nodelocation: 48,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Pricing_scenario Title: Pricing Scenario Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then A2_price_hike Else (I~~ f (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then B1_price_hike Else (If (Choose_an_~~ ipcc_scena='B2') Then B2_price_hike Else Base_price_hike))) Nodelocation: 128,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,289,226 Chance Base_timing Title: Base Timing Definition: dynamic(Lognormal(15, 1.25), Lognormal(15, 1.25)) Nodelocation: 48,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance A2_timing Title: A2 Timing Definition: dynamic(Lognormal( 35, 1.25 ), Lognormal( 35, 1.25 )) Nodelocation: 48,232 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Timing_scenario Title: Timing Scenario Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then A2_timing Else (If (C~~ hoose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then A2_timing Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_sce~~ na='B2') Then A2_timing Else A2_timing))) Nodelocation: 136,272 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,298,77 Chance B2_price_hike Title: B2 Price HIke Definition: dynamic(Normal( 1.25, 0.1 ), Normal( 1.25, 0.1 )) Nodelocation: 48,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance B2_timing Title: B2 Timing Definition: dynamic(Lognormal( 35, 1.25 ), Lognormal( 35, 1.25 )) Nodelocation: 48,272 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance B1_price_hike Title: B1 Price HIke Definition: dynamic(Normal( 1.005, 0.001 ), Normal( 1.005, 0.001 )) Nodelocation: 48,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance New_discovery Title: New Disoveries Definition: dynamic(lognormal(0.5,2), lognormal(0.5,2)) Nodelocation: 48,336 Nodesize: 40,16 Valuestate: 1,8,44,1006,714,1,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Close Parameters_affecting Module Processes_affecting_ Title: Processes Affecting Energy Demand Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM Nodelocation: 328,112 Nodesize: 60,36 Diagstate: 1,464,192,466,371,17 Module Energy_exp Title: Energy Expenditure Impacts on Economy Description: The increasing price of energy is thought to impose a dra~~ g on economic growth. This feedback on the economy is calculated her~~ e. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 16 Sep, 1994 12:19 Defaultsize: 44,20 Nodelocation: 360,200 Nodesize: 56,36 Diagstate: 1,39,50,462,295,17 Chance Agg_fuel_expenditure Title: Aggregate Regional Energy Expenditures Definition: Dynamic((Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*P_fuels),Fuels)*1G),(Sum(~~ (Fuel_use_by_region*P_fuels),Fuels)*1G)) Nodelocation: 184,208 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Fuel_s_sha Title: Fuel's Share of GNP Definition: Dynamic((Agg_fuel_expenditure/Economic_activity_by),(Agg_f~~ uel_expenditure/Economic_activity_by)) Nodelocation: 328,208 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Fuel_price Title: Fuel Price Difference Units: $/GJ Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill*Un_filler),(P_fuels-Slice(P_fuels,Inter~~ vention,1))) Nodelocation: 176,88 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,677,510,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Fuel_quant Title: Fuel Quantity Difference Units: EJ Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill*Un_filler),((-Fuel_use_by_region)+Slice~~ (Fuel_use_by_region,Intervention,1))) Nodelocation: 176,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,45,45,667,429,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective Dead_weight_energy Title: Dead Weight Loss Due to Energy Expenditures Definition: dynamic(~ Energy_ex_sens*1G*sum(Fuel_price*Fuel_quant,fuels)/2 + Rent_correctio~~ n, Energy_ex_sens*1G*sum(Fuel_price*Fuel_quant,fuels)/2 + Rent_correc~~ tion) Nodelocation: 344,88 Nodesize: 44,28 Windstate: 1,40,50 Valuestate: 1,59,39,604,556,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-40G~ Ymaximum:0~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Rent_in_coal Title: Rent in Coal Production Definition: Dynamic(((Rent_extra*Slice(Fuel_use_by_region,Fuels,3))*1G~~ ),((Rent_extra*Slice(Fuel_use_by_region,Fuels,3))*1G)) Nodelocation: 72,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,232,242 Valuestate: 1,56,66,607,430,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Rent_correction Title: Dead Wt Loss Rent Correction Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill*Un_filler),(Rent_in_coal-Slice(Rent_in~~ _coal,Intervention,1))) Nodelocation: 176,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,4,43,676,420,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Energy_exp Objective Q_fuels_2 Title: Total Fuel Demands Definition: Dynamic(Sum(Fuel_use_by_region,Regions_12),Sum(Fuel_use_by~~ _region,Regions_12)) Nodelocation: 320,288 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,598,25,416,303,1,STAT Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Module Drivers_of_growth_in Title: Economic & Technological Drivers of Energy Demand Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM Nodelocation: 360,104 Nodesize: 56,36 Diagstate: 1,120,63,477,219,17 Chance Pot_gr_reg_e_demand Title: Potential Growth in Regional Energy Demand Description: The growth in energy demand is determined by aeei and eco~~ nomic growth.~ Dynamic(1,1,1,~ if Un_gnp_gro1[Time-1] < 0 ~ then ((1+Un_gnp_gro1[Time-1]/3)/((1+(Rate_of_change_in_e1/100))^5)) e~~ lse~ ((1+Un_gnp_gro1[Time-1])/((1+(Rate_of_change_in_e1/100))^5))) Definition: Dynamic(1,1,1,(If (Gnp_through_time[Time-1]<0) Then ((1+(G~~ np_through_time[Time-1]/3))/((1+(Rate_of_change_in_e1/100))^5)) Else ~~ ((1+Gnp_through_time[Time-1])/((1+(Rate_of_change_in_e1/100))^5)))) Nodelocation: 216,88 Nodesize: 56,24 Windstate: 1,125,98 Valuestate: 1,56,65,596,510,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0.5~ Ymaximum:1.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:7~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Potential_regional_e Title: Potential Regional Energy Demand Description: This is the baseline energy quantities by region. Definition: Dynamic(F_e75,F_e80,F_e85,F_e90,(Fuel_use_by_region[Time-1~~ ]*Pot_gr_reg_e_demand)) Nodelocation: 304,136 Nodesize: 56,24 Windstate: 1,72,82 Valuestate: 1,43,142,440,395,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Module Rate_of_change_in_en Title: Rate of Change in Energy Efficiency Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Aug 4, 1995 10:19 PM Nodelocation: 104,32 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,102,87,462,277,1 Chance Rate_of_change_in_e1 Title: Rate of Change in Energy Efficiency Units: %/yr Description: Rate of change in the aggregate energy intensity of the ~~ economy Definition: dynamic(Effic_sens*realized_alpha, Effic_sens*realized_alp~~ ha) Nodelocation: 168,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,216,226 Defnstate: 1,81,212,719,308,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,109,79,612,506,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:0~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-2~ Ymaximum:8~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformdef: [Time,Time] Reformval: [Time,No_yes_index] Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0 Chance Efficiency Title: Efficiency of Energy Technologies Description: The AEEI is model is uncertain. Received wisdom is that ~~ it is somehow fixed. Our work suggests it is induced. Here the AEEI~~ _SWitch allows selection of one or other model. Definition: Dynamic((If (Scenario_itc='NO') Then Emf_aeei Else alpha),~~ (If (Scenario_itc='NO') Then Emf_aeei Else alpha)) Nodelocation: 168,104 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,254,302 Valuestate: 1,52,67,782,546,0,MIDM Reformval: [Regions_12,Time] Chance Uncertain_aeei Title: Uncertainty in Energy Efficiency Definition: Evaluate_p(Normal(1,.1), UF_Econ) Nodelocation: 56,24 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Emf_aeei Title: EMF AEEI Description: Arnuf Grtubler of IIASA suggests the AEEI is a simple fun~~ ction of percapita growth. EMF-14 page 10. The coefficient used is ~~ .32. Here the AEEI is calculated according to the EMF model. Definition: Dynamic(((Growthsen*Tech_eff_index)*Uncertain_aeei),((Grow~~ thsen*Tech_eff_index)*Uncertain_aeei)) Nodelocation: 56,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Module Induced_technical_c2 Title: Induced~ Technical~ Change Description: dynamic( ~ Un_scen, Un_scen, Un_scen, UN_scen, ~ if Dp_en_regional[time-1] <= 0 then 0~ else~ t_1*Dp_en_regional[time-1]) Author: Hadi Date: Sun, Jun 23, 1996 16:38 Nodelocation: 280,64 Nodesize: 48,28 Diagstate: 1,63,76,479,408,17 Alias Regional__gdp_pc1 Title: Regional ~ GDP-pc Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 144,96 Nodesize: 40,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Original: Regional__gdp_pc Chance Compare_a Title: Compare A Definition: [New_alpha,Alpha] Indexvals: ['New~ Alpha','Alpha'] Nodelocation: 376,128 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,39,42,792,554,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Self] Module Alpha__2 Title: Alpha ±2 Author: Hadi Date: Thu, Jun 5, 1997 12:57 PM Nodelocation: 96,40 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,56,66,472,308,17 Chance Kappa Title: Kappa Description: This is the intercept Definition: -1.65 {se 0.02} Nodelocation: 376,264 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Rho1 Title: Rho1 Description: This is the coefficient for the first lagged price change~~ ln(1+ ln ±P) Definition: 6.3 {se 0.14} Nodelocation: 56,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Rho2 Title: Rho2 Description: This is the coefficient for the second lagged price chang~~ e ln(1+ ln ±P) Definition: 5.1 {se .0.47} Nodelocation: 56,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Rho3 Title: Rho3 Description: This is the coefficient for the third lagged price change~~ ln(1+ ln ±P) Definition: 1.8 {se 0.29} Nodelocation: 56,160 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Pt4 Title: pt 1 Definition: dynamic( ~ Un_scen+.144, Un_scen+1.5, Un_scen+1.25, Un_scen+1, ~ if Dp_en_regional[time-1] <= 0 then 0~ else~ Rho1*ln(1+(ln(1+Dp_en_regional[time-1]))) ) Nodelocation: 248,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,60,52,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Chance Pt5 Title: pt 2 Definition: dynamic( ~ Un_scen, Un_scen, Un_scen, UN_scen, ~ if Dp_en_regional[time-2] <= 0 then 0~ else~ Rho2*ln(1+(ln(1+Dp_en_regional[time-2]))) ) Nodelocation: 248,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,62,338,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Chance Pt6 Title: pt 3 Definition: dynamic( ~ Un_scen, Un_scen, Un_scen, UN_scen, ~ if Dp_en_regional[time-3] <= 0 then 0~ else~ Rho3*ln(1+(ln(1+Dp_en_regional[time-3]))) ) Nodelocation: 248,160 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,477,53,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Chance New_alpha Title: New~ Alpha Definition: ((Pt4+Pt5)+Pt6) Nodelocation: 376,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,77,82,583,447,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance New_kappa Title: New Kappa Description: This is a conjecture. As an economy grows, there is a ph~~ ase over which the energy intensity increases, then falls as industry~~ takes over from agriculture and infrastructure is developed. Then w~~ ith the advent of a post-industrial economy the economy continues to ~~ grow while energy intensity falls. Definition: ifall Status_of_economy <= 0 or Status_of_economy >= 1.5 t~~ hen 0 else~ ifall status_of_economy <= .75 then -Status_of_economy else Status_of~~ _economy -1.5 Nodelocation: 376,208 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,324,146,414,383,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:30K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:7~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Status_of_economy Title: Status of economy Definition: Logten((Regional__gdp_pc/Diff_develop_path)) Nodelocation: 248,208 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,176,76,416,303,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:7~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Constant Diff_develop_path Title: Differential Development Paths Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 1000,500,700,100,100,750,300,200,200,1000,900,500) Nodelocation: 56,208 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,97,225,416,303,0,MIDM Chance New_alpha2 Title: New~ Alpha Definition: (((New_kappa+Pt4)+Pt5)+Pt6) Nodelocation: 376,160 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,77,82,583,447,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Alpha__2 Module Alpha__4__income_yea Title: Alpha ±4~ +income+year Author: Hadi Date: Thu, Jun 5, 1997 12:57 PM Nodelocation: 216,40 Nodesize: 52,24 Module Log_income Title: Log Income Author: Hadi Date: Thu, Jun 5, 1997 12:57 PM Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Year2 Title: Year Definition: normal(-.0037, 0.001) Nodelocation: 48,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Log_of_income Title: Log of income Definition: Normal(1.7930, 06830) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T_1 Title: T-1 Definition: normal(5.4080, .1552) Nodelocation: 48,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T_2 Title: T-2 Definition: normal(4.9423, 0.7822) Nodelocation: 48,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T_3 Title: T-3 Definition: Normal(1.9038, 0.2862) Nodelocation: 48,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Yy Title: yy Definition: Year2*time Nodelocation: 168,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,1,MIDM Chance Ll Title: ll Definition: if ln(Regional__gdp_pc/1000) < 0 then 0 else Log_of_incom~~ e*ln(Regional__gdp_pc/1000) Nodelocation: 168,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,184,194,440,357,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Tt1 Title: tt1 Definition: dynamic( ~ Un_scen+.144, Un_scen+1.5, Un_scen+1.25, Un_scen+1, ~ if Dp_en_regional[time-1] <= 0 then 0~ else~ t_1*Dp_en_regional[time-1]) Nodelocation: 168,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Tt2 Title: tt2 Definition: dynamic( ~ Un_scen, Un_scen, Un_scen, UN_scen, ~ if Dp_en_regional[time-2] <= 0 then 0~ else~ t_2*Dp_en_regional[time-2]) Nodelocation: 168,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Tt3 Title: tt3 Definition: dynamic( ~ Un_scen, Un_scen, Un_scen, UN_scen, ~ if Dp_en_regional[time-3] <= 0 then 0~ else~ t_3*Dp_en_regional[time-3]) Nodelocation: 168,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Lnincome___year_alph Title: LNIncome & Year ALPHA Definition: {Yy+Ll+}Tt1+Tt2+Tt3 Nodelocation: 304,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,197,66,582,446,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-10~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Log_income Module Income1 Title: Income Author: Hadi Date: Thu, Jun 5, 1997 12:57 PM Nodelocation: 152,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Year3 Title: Year Definition: Normal( -.0024, 0.0003 ) Nodelocation: 48,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Income Title: INCOME Definition: Normal( 0.1495, 0.04 ) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T_4 Title: T-1 Definition: Normal( 5.22, 0.165 ) Nodelocation: 48,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T_5 Title: T-2 Definition: Normal( 4.49, 0.797 ) Nodelocation: 48,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T_6 Title: T-3 Definition: Normal( 1.64, 0.31 ) Nodelocation: 48,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Yy1 Title: yy Definition: {(Year3*Time)}0 Nodelocation: 168,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Ll1 Title: ll Definition: {Log_of_income1*(Regional__gdp_pc/1000)}0 Nodelocation: 168,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,184,194,440,357,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Tt4 Title: tt1 Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,(If (Dp_en_regiona~~ l[Time-1]<=0) Then 0 Else (T_4*Dp_en_regional[Time-1]))) Nodelocation: 168,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Tt5 Title: tt2 Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,(If (Dp_en_regiona~~ l[Time-2]<=0) Then 0 Else (T_5*Dp_en_regional[Time-2]))) Nodelocation: 168,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Tt6 Title: tt3 Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,(If (Dp_en_regiona~~ l[Time-3]<=0) Then 0 Else (T_6*Dp_en_regional[Time-3]))) Nodelocation: 168,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Income___year_alpha Title: INCOME & YEAR ALPHA Definition: ((((Yy1+Ll1)+Tt4)+Tt5)+Tt6) Nodelocation: 304,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,90,76,582,446,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-10~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Income1 Close Alpha__4__income_yea Chance Intercept3 Title: Intercept Definition: {Normal( -2.365, .0055 )}0 Nodelocation: 96,264 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T_7 Title: T-1 Definition: Normal( 5.7376, 0.0836 ) Nodelocation: 96,304 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T_8 Title: T-2 Definition: Normal( 5.5684, 0.7436 ) Nodelocation: 96,344 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T_9 Title: T-3 Definition: Normal( 2.2441, 0.2528 ) Nodelocation: 96,384 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Tt7 Title: tt1 Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,(If (Dp_en_regional[Time-1]<=0) Then 0 Els~~ e (T_7*Dp_en_regional[Time-1]))) Nodelocation: 216,304 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Tt8 Title: tt2 Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,Un_scen, (If (Dp_en_regional[Time-2]<=0) T~~ hen 0 Else (T_8*Dp_en_regional[Time-2]))) Nodelocation: 216,344 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Tt9 Title: tt3 Definition: Dynamic(Un_scen,Un_scen,Un_scen,(If (Dp_en_regional[Time-3~~ ]<=0) Then 0 Else (T_9*Dp_en_regional[Time-3]))) Nodelocation: 216,384 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Alpha Title: Alpha Units: %pa ±J/$ Description: Rate of change in energy intensity. Definition: (If (Time=1975) Then Alpha_70 Else (If (Time=1980) Then Al~~ pha_75 Else (If (Time=1985) Then Alpha_80 Else (If (Time>=1985) Then ~~ (((Intercept3+Tt7)+Tt8)+Tt9) Else 0)))) Nodelocation: 376,344 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,197,66,582,446,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-10~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Constant Oil_p_54 Title: Oil P 54 Definition: 2.58 Nodelocation: 88,440 Nodesize: 44,20 Constant Oil_p_59 Title: Oil P 59 Definition: 2.33 Nodelocation: 88,480 Nodesize: 44,20 Constant Oil_p_64 Title: Oil P 64 Definition: 2.14 Nodelocation: 88,520 Nodesize: 44,20 Constant Oil_p_69 Title: Oil P 69 Definition: 1.86 Nodelocation: 88,560 Nodesize: 44,20 Constant Oil_p_74 Title: Oil P 74 Definition: 3.81 Nodelocation: 88,600 Nodesize: 44,20 Constant Oil_p_79 Title: Oil P 79 Definition: 5.11 Nodelocation: 176,440 Nodesize: 44,20 Constant Oil_p_84 Title: Oil P 84 Definition: 5.94 Nodelocation: 176,480 Nodesize: 44,20 Constant Oil_p_89 Title: Oil P 89 Definition: 3.81 Nodelocation: 176,520 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Dp_60 Title: dp 60 Definition: (Oil_p_59-Oil_p_54)/Oil_p_54 Nodelocation: 280,440 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,406,98,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Dp_65 Title: dp 65 Definition: (Oil_p_64-Oil_p_59)/Oil_p_59 Nodelocation: 280,480 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,406,224,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Dp_70 Title: dp 70 Definition: (Oil_p_69-Oil_p_64)/Oil_p_64 Nodelocation: 280,520 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,403,347,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Dp_75 Title: dp 75 Definition: (Oil_p_74-Oil_p_69)/Oil_p_69 Nodelocation: 280,560 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,413,317,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Dp_80 Title: dp 80 Definition: (Oil_p_79-Oil_p_74)/Oil_p_74 Nodelocation: 280,600 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Alpha_70 Title: alpha 70 Definition: ((((Un_scen+Intercept3)+(Dp_60*T_9))+(Dp_65*T_8))+(Dp_70*T~~ _7)) Nodelocation: 376,456 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Alpha_75 Title: alpha 75 Definition: ((((Un_scen+Intercept3)+(Dp_65*T_9))+(Dp_70*T_8))+(Dp_75*T~~ _7)) Nodelocation: 376,496 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Alpha_80 Title: alpha 80 Definition: ((((Un_scen+Intercept3)+(Dp_70*T_9))+(Dp_75*T_8))+(Dp_80*T~~ _7)) Nodelocation: 376,536 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Induced_technical_c2 Chance Reference_alpha Title: Reference Alpha Definition: Max(Efficiency,Regions_12) Nodelocation: 56,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,179,116,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Realized_alpha Title: Realized Alpha Definition: dynamic(~ efficiency+new_kappa, ~ efficiency+tech_diffusion*(reference_alpha - efficiency)+new_kappa) Nodelocation: 168,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,571,530,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-10~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Tech_diffusion Title: Tech Diffusion Definition: If (Scenario_cdm='NO') Then 0.05 Else 0.5 Nodelocation: 288,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,115,229 Chance Tech_eff_index Title: Tech Eff Index Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then 0.4 Else (If (Choose_~~ an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then 0.45 Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Th~~ en 0.56 Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then 0.55 Else 0.32))))~~ Nodelocation: 168,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,245,275 Close Rate_of_change_in_en Close Drivers_of_growth_in Module Historic_t Title: Historic Trends Description: Historic consumption data are used to calibrate the pre 1~~ 990 data. The data we have is from WRI's database and is about regio~~ nal production, not consumption. The economic growth data determines~~ regional demand. We used other knowledge on global fuel trades to a~~ djust the production data to reflect regional consumption levels. Th~~ e data for all historic time periods have been adjusted although only~~ 1990 data are critical to accurate future predictions. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 16 Sep, 1994 12:19 Nodelocation: 224,40 Nodesize: 60,28 Diagstate: 1,223,182,441,209,1 Chance F_e75 Title: Energy Consumption By Region 1975 Units: EJ Description: WRI database on regional production was adjusted to refl~~ ect imports to OECD of oil from L. America and Mid East. Gas and coa~~ l from Africa. Coal and oil from CIS.~ Definition: (U_fuelq*Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(~ 23.5,1.5,5,4,8.5,1.6,0.5,0.2,0.35,0,0.18,0.33,~ 43,6.5,35,15,3,4.5,0.5,3.2,1.4,2,1,6,~ 15,0.33,12,18,7,0.06,1.2,2.9,13,0.5,1,1,~ 3,1,3,1,0.5,0.1,0.1,0.25,0.25,0,0.1,1~ )) Nodelocation: 216,56 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,136,146 Defnstate: 1,24,41,394,285,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Fuels,Regions_12] Reformval: [Fuels,Regions_12] Chance F_e80 Title: Energy Consumption By Region 1980 Units: EJ Description: WRI database on regional production was adjusted to refle~~ ct imports to OECD of oil from L. America and Mid East. Gas and coal~~ from Africa. Gas, coal and oil from CIS. Definition: (U_fuelq*Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(~ 25,2.4,6,8,7.5,1.8,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.25,0.25,0.5,~ 28,7,35,17.3,7,7,6.5,4.3,3.5,3,0.8,7,~ 20,0.6,8,17,9,0.3,2.6,3,14,1,1,2,~ 4,1.2,3.5,1,1,0.15,0.1,0.4,0.3,0,0.1,1~ )) Nodelocation: 344,56 Nodesize: 52,28 Defnstate: 1,429,43,394,284,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,200,54,393,289,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Fuels,Regions_12] Reformval: [Fuels,Regions_12] Chance F_e85 Title: Energy Consumption By Region 1985 Units: EJ Description: WRI database on regional production was adjusted to refle~~ ct imports to OECD of oil from L. America and Mid East. Gas and coal~~ from Africa. Gas, coal and oil from CIS. Definition: (U_fuelq*Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(~ 20,2.8,7.5,12,11,2.7,0.3,1.6,0.56,0.25,0.6,0.75,~ 20,7.8,29,16,8,9,3,5,3.5,4,0.8,8,~ 23,0.9,8,16,11,0.1,4,4.3,20,1.5,2,2.5,~ 4,1.3,3.5,1.2,1,0.2,0.1,1,0.45,0,0.1,1~ )) Nodelocation: 216,128 Nodesize: 52,28 Defnstate: 1,25,356,395,287,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,40,62,400,310,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Fuels,Regions_12] Reformval: [Fuels,Regions_12] Chance F_e90 Title: Energy Consumption By Region 1990 Units: EJ Description: WRI database on regional production was adjusted to refle~~ ct imports to OECD of oil from L. America and Mid East. Gas and coal~~ from Africa. Gas, coal and oil from CIS. ~ Definition: (U_fuelq*Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(~ 21,3.4,9,15,17.5,7.2,0.2,2.9,0.6,1,0.7,1,~ 22,9,32,14,7,11.5,3,8.6,5.9,6,1,11,~ 23.5,1,6,14,9,0.1,4,5.5,25.1,2,2,3,~ 4,1.3,4,1.2,1,0.2,0.1,1.3,0.5,0.1,0.1,1~ )) Nodelocation: 344,128 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,40,50 Defnstate: 1,431,355,394,285,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,439,63,398,317,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Fuels,Regions_12] Reformval: [Fuels,Regions_12] Chance U_fuelq Title: Uncertainty in Initial Fuel Quantities Description: The initial level of fuel use is uncertain. The coeffici~~ ent of variation has been estimated as put at 5%. Marland (1992?).~ Definition: Evaluate_p(Normal(1,0.05)+(scen_fill), UF_Fuel) Nodelocation: 80,88 Nodesize: 52,24 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM Close Historic_t Module Trends_in_fuel_use Title: Trends in Fuel Use Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 224,200 Nodesize: 56,36 Diagstate: 1,83,45,485,445,17 Chance P_fuels1 Title: Fuel Prices (1) Definition: Table(Fuels1)(~ P_gas,P_oil,P_coal,P_non_fossil) Nodelocation: 376,88 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Dp_fuels1_regional Title: Change in Regional Fuel prices (1) Definition: Dynamic(0,~ (P_fuels1_regional-P_fuels1_regional[Time-1])/P_fuels1_regional[Time-~~ 1]) Nodelocation: 240,144 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,152,162,547,410,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Fuels1] Chance Regional_carbon_taxe Title: Regional Carbon Taxes (1) Definition: Dynamic((Carbon_content__1_*Regional_carbon_tax),(Carbon_c~~ ontent__1_*Regional_carbon_tax)) Nodelocation: 104,88 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance P_fuels1_regional Title: Regional Fuel Prices (1) Definition: (P_fuels1+Regional_carbon_taxe+Regional_price_diver) Nodelocation: 240,88 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,171,79,548,491,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:40~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Fuels1] Chance Dq_fuels_regional_x Title: Potential Change in Regional Demands Definition: Dynamic(UN_filler*0,~ (x_adjust*(Sum((F_lr_fuel_su*Dp_fuels1_regional),Fuels1))/4),~ (x_adjust*(Sum((2*F_lr_fuel_su*(Dp_fuels1_regional[Time-1]+Dp_fuels1_~~ regional)),Fuels1))/4),~ (x_adjust*(Sum((F_lr_fuel_su*((Dp_fuels1_regional[Time-2]+2*Dp_fuels1~~ _regional[Time-1])+4*Dp_fuels1_regional)),Fuels1))/7),~ (x_adjust*(Sum((F_lr_fuel_su*(((Dp_fuels1_regional[Time-3]+2*Dp_fuels~~ 1_regional[Time-2])+Dp_fuels1_regional[Time-1])+Dp_fuels1_regional)),~~ Fuels1))/4)) Nodelocation: 240,208 Nodesize: 44,28 Windstate: 1,128,93 Valuestate: 1,136,146,650,422,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective Fuel_use_by_region Title: Fuel Use by Region Units: EJ/Yr Definition: Dynamic(F_e75,F_e80,F_e85,F_e90,~ (Production_limits*Dq_energy_sr*Potential_regional_e*(1+Dq_fuels_regi~~ onal))) Nodelocation: 240,320 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,139,182 Valuestate: 1,79,48,617,506,0,STAT Aliases: Alias Regional__fuel_cons2, Alias Regional__fuel_cons1, Formnode~~ Regional__fuel_cons3 Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Chance Dq_fuels_regional Title: Inertia Limited Change in Demand Definition: dynamic(Dq_fuels_regional_x, ~ if Dq_fuels_regional_x > 1 then 1~ else~ if Dq_fuels_regional_x < -.5 then -.5~ else Dq_fuels_regional_x) Nodelocation: 240,272 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,288,338 Valuestate: 1,234,62,483,439,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.5~ Ymaximum:0.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Production_limits Title: Production Limits Description: if (slice(q_fuels, fuels, 1) = 0 and slice(q_fuels, fuel~~ s, 2)=0) then array(Fuels, [0, 0, 1, 1]) else~ if slice(q_fuels, fuels, 1) = 0 then array(Fuels, [0, 1, 1, 1]) else~~ ~ if slice(q_fuels, fuels, 2) = 0 then array(Fuels, [1, 0, 1, 1]) else~~ ~ array(Fuels, [1, 1, 1, 1]) Definition: (If ((Slice(Q_fuels,Fuels,1)=0) And (Slice(Q_fuels,Fuels,2~~ )=0)) Then Array(Fuels,[0,0,1,1]) Else (If (Slice(Q_fuels,Fuels,1)=0)~~ Then Array(Fuels,[0,1,1,1]) Else (If (Slice(Q_fuels,Fuels,2)=0) Then~~ Array(Fuels,[1,0,1,1]) Else Array(Fuels,[1,1,1,1])))) Nodelocation: 112,320 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,654,308,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Fuels] Chance X_adjust Title: Incomplete Adjustment Description: This is a subjective assessment and should be taken with ~~ a grain of salt.~ If (Induced_technical_ch='NO') Then 0.8 else 0.40 Definition: If (Scenario_itc='NO') Then 0.6 else 0.30 Nodelocation: 120,208 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,276,150 Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-15291 Chance Regional_price_diver Title: Regional Price Diversity Definition: Table(Time,Fuels1,Regions_12)(~ 1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 2,2,2,2,2,0,2,2,2,2,2,0,~ 0,0,0,-0.5,-0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,-0.5,-0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0.5,0,0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,-0.5,-0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0.25,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,-0.5,-0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,2,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 240,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,88,98,724,351,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,105,130,583,425,1,MIDM Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Fuels1] Chance Oil_expenditures Title: Oil Expenditures Units: % Definition: 100*1G*(slice(Fuel_use_by_region, fuels, 2)*slice(P_fuels1~~ _regional, fuels1, 2))/Economic_activity_by Nodelocation: 376,320 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,59,62,662,516,0,MIDM Reformval: [Regions_12,Time] Numberformat: 1,F,4,1,0,0 Chance Regional_e_shares Title: Regional Shares of Global Markets Definition: if fuel_use_by_region <= 0 then 0 else~ if q_fuels_2 <= 0 then 1 else~ Fuel_use_by_region/Q_fuels_2 Nodelocation: 376,376 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,0,-23,1024,667,1,STAT Close Trends_in_fuel_use Module Short_term_energy_bu Title: Short Term Energy Budget Adjustment Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM Nodelocation: 88,104 Nodesize: 56,36 Diagstate: 1,222,208,471,276,17 Chance Dq_energy_sr Title: Energy Budget Adjustment Definition: dynamic(1, 1+Dp_en_regional[time-1]*Sr_energy_e~ {,~ 1+(Dp_en_regional[time-1]+Dp_en_regional[time-2])/2*Sr_energy_e,~ 1+(2*Dp_en_regional[time-1]+Dp_en_regional[time-2]+Dp_en_regional[tim~~ e-3])/4*Sr_energy_e}) Nodelocation: 200,208 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,720,414,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Regional_fuel_prices Title: Regional Fuel Prices Units: $/GJ Description: Regional fuel price subsidies are taken away between 1990~~ and 1995. Definition: dynamic(Fuel_specific_taxes+P_fuels+Reg_fuel_subs, ~ if time < 1990 then Fuel_specific_taxes+P_fuels+Reg_fuel_subs ~ else~ if time < 1995 then Fuel_specific_taxes+P_fuels+Reg_fuel_subs/2~ else~ Fuel_specific_taxes+P_fuels) Nodelocation: 200,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,58,84,627,453,0,MEAN Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Sr_energy_e Title: Price Elasticity of Energy Demand Definition: -.15 Nodelocation: 296,136 Nodesize: 40,28 Valuestate: 1,184,194,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-8737 Chance P_en_regional Title: Regional Energy Prices Definition: (Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*Regional_fuel_prices),Fuels)/Sum(~~ Fuel_use_by_region,Fuels)) Nodelocation: 200,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,216,226,587,256,0,MEAN Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Dp_en_regional Title: Change in Regional Energy Prices Definition: dynamic(un_filler*0, (P_en_regional - P_en_regional[time-1~~ ])/P_en_regional[time-1]) Nodelocation: 200,144 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,109,79,612,506,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:0~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.25~ Ymaximum:0.75~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Dp_en_regional1 Title: Change in Regional Energy Prices Units: %pa Definition: dynamic(un_filler*0, 20*(P_en_regional - P_en_regional[tim~~ e-1])/P_en_regional[time-1]) Nodelocation: 80,144 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,109,79,612,506,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:0~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-2~ Ymaximum:6~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,No_yes_index] Close Short_term_energy_bu Module Long_run_interfuel_s Title: Long Run Interfuel Substitution Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Aug 30, 1996 2:49 PM Nodelocation: 80,264 Nodesize: 52,36 Diagstate: 1,63,70,480,376,17 Chance F_lr_fuel_su Title: LR_Fuel Substitution Description: The off diagonal elements in the matrix are calculated as~~ symmetric equal share of the diagonals adding up to -1 per row, as i~~ n the Jorgenson paper. Definition: Dynamic(Table(Fuels,Fuels1)(~ F_gas_el,Oil_f,Coal_f,Renewable_off,~ Gas_coal,F_oil_el,Coal_f,Renewable_off,~ Gas_coal,Oil_f,F_coal_el,Renewable_off,~ Gas_nf,Oil_nf,Coal_nf,F_renewable_el~ ),Table(Fuels,Fuels1)(~ F_gas_el,Oil_f,Coal_f,Renewable_off,~ Gas_coal,F_oil_el,Coal_f,Renewable_off,~ Gas_coal,Oil_f,F_coal_el,Renewable_off,~ Gas_nf,Oil_nf,Coal_nf,F_renewable_el~ )) Nodelocation: 216,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,206,192 Defnstate: 1,55,189,723,338,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,221,186,416,303,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Fuels,Fuels1] Reformval: [Fuels,Fuels1] Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0 Chance F_gas_el Title: Gas Elasticity Description: This is the long run elasticity for gas consumption. It ~~ is derived from Jorgensen's work. The distribution is based on the r~~ egional variability found by Jorgensen in the US for 1953-1988. Definition: Fuel_sub_sens*~ Evaluate_p(Normal(-1.4,0.1), UF_Fuel) Nodelocation: 160,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,1,PDFP Chance F_oil_el Title: Oil Elasticity Description: This is the long run elasticity for oil consumption Definition: Fuel_sub_sens*~ Evaluate_p(Normal(-1.6,0.2), UF_Fuel) Nodelocation: 280,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance F_coal_el Title: Coal Elasticity Description: Fuel_sub_sens*~ if scenario='B2' then Evaluate_p(b2_lrc, UF_Fuel) else Evaluate_p(bas~~ e_lrc, UF_Fuel) Definition: (Fuel_sub_sens*(If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then Evalua~~ te_p(B2_lrc,Uf_fuel) Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then Evalua~~ te_p(B2_lrc,Uf_fuel) Else Evaluate_p(Base_lrc,Uf_fuel)))) Nodelocation: 160,216 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,58,309 Valuestate: 1,248,258,416,303,0,MIDM Chance F_renewable_el Title: Renewable Elasticity Description: This is the long run elasticity for non-fossil consumptio~~ n.~ Dynamic((scen_fill),(Fuel_sub_sens*(If (Time>=2000) Then ((Uncertaint~~ y_in_non_f*0.1) -1.2) Else ((Uncertainty_in_non_f*0.05)-2)))) Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),(Fuel_sub_sens*(If (Time>=2000) Then (~~ (Uncertainty_in_non_f*0.1) -2) Else ((Uncertainty_in_non_f*0.05)-2)))~~ ) Nodelocation: 280,216 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,120,130 Valuestate: 1,121,130,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Gas_coal Title: Gas-fossil~ off diagonal Description: if Scenario='B2' then b2_gfo else base_gfo Definition: base_gfo Nodelocation: 160,64 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Gas_nf Title: Gas Non-fossil~ off diagonal Definition: dynamic(0, If (Time>=2000) Then (-((1+F_gas_el))/3) Else 0~~ ) Nodelocation: 160,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Oil_nf Title: Oil Non-fossil~ off diagonal Definition: dynamic(0, If (Time>=2000) Then (-((1+F_oil_el))/3) Else 0~~ ) Nodelocation: 280,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Oil_f Title: Oil-fossil~ off diagonal Description: if Scenario='B2' then b2_ofo else base_ofo Definition: base_ofo Nodelocation: 280,64 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Coal_f Title: Coal-fossil~ off diagonal Definition: dynamic(-(1+F_coal_el)/2, ~ If (Time>=2000) Then -(1+F_coal_el)/3 Else -(1+F_coal_el)/2) Nodelocation: 160,256 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Coal_nf Title: Coal Non-fossil~ off diagonal Description: Ifonly (Time>2020) and Other_f = 3 ~ Then (-((1+F_coal_el))) Else ~ Ifonly (Time>2020) and ((Other_f = 2) or (Other_f=1)) ~ Then (-((1+F_coal_el))/2) Else ~ (-((1+F_coal_el))/3) Definition: dynamic(0, If (Time>=2000) Then (-((1+F_coal_el))/3) Else ~~ 0) Nodelocation: 160,296 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Renewable_off Title: Renewable off diagonal Description: {dynamic(0, if (time >= 2000) then -(1+F_renewable_el)/3 ~~ else 0)} Definition: base_rfo Nodelocation: 280,256 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Uncertainty_in_non_f Title: Uncertainty in Non-fossil Definition: Evaluate_p(Normal(0,1), UF_Fuel) Nodelocation: 392,216 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Base_lrc Title: Base LRC Definition: Normal(-1.7,0.2) Nodelocation: 56,168 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance B2_lrc Title: B2 LRC Definition: Normal( -2.8, 0.2 ) Nodelocation: 56,200 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Base_gfo Title: Base GFO Definition: dynamic(-(1+F_gas_el)/2, ~ If (Time>=2000) Then -(1+F_gas_el)/3 Else -(1+F_gas_el)/2) Nodelocation: 56,56 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance B2_gfo Title: B2 GFO Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 56,88 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Base_ofo Title: Base OFO Definition: dynamic(-(1+F_oil_el)/2, ~ If (Time>=2000) Then -(1+F_oil_el)/3 Else -(1+F_oil_el)/2) Nodelocation: 384,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance B2_ofo Title: B2 OFO Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 384,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Base_rfo Title: Base RFO Definition: dynamic(0, if (time >= 2000) then -(1+F_renewable_el)/3 el~~ se 0) Nodelocation: 392,272 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance B2_rfo Title: B2 RFO Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 392,304 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Long_run_interfuel_s Close Processes_affecting_ Variable Fuels_0 Title: Fuels_0 Definition: array(fuels, [0, 0, 0, 0]) Nodelocation: 280,312 Nodesize: 52,20 Close Demand_con Variable Fossil_supply_lag Title: Fossil supply lag Units: periods Description: This is the periods by which new discovery lags price hik~~ es in the oil and gas industry. Definition: 2 Nodelocation: 80,240 Nodesize: 52,20 Close F_energy_mod Objective Q_fuels Title: Global Fuel Use Units: EJ/Year Description: Time trend of global fuel use in EJ per year. Definition: Dynamic(Table(Fuels)(~ Gas_produc1,Oil_produc1,Coal_produ1,Non_fossil2),Table(Fuels)(~ Gas_produc1,Oil_produc1,Coal_produ1,Non_fossil2)) Nodelocation: 112,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,200,210 Defnstate: 1,185,194,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,135,123,644,418,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Fuel_use1, Alias Fuel_use Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:0~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:300~ Zminimum:0.4~ Zmaximum:0.85~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Fuels] Numberformat: 1,D,4,2,0,0 Objective P_fuels Title: Fuel Prices Units: $/GJ Description: Time trend of global fuel prices in $/GJ. Definition: Dynamic(Array(Fuels,[P_gas,P_oil,P_coal,P_non_fossil]),Arr~~ ay(Fuels,[P_gas,P_oil,P_coal,P_non_fossil])) Nodelocation: 112,120 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,61,58,633,517,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Fuel_prices Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:40~ Zminimum:0.1~ Zmaximum:0.9~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.1,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.9]~ Reformval: [Time,Fuels] Module Emissions_ Title: Emissions~ Model Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 16 Sep, 1994 14:35 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 280,40 Nodesize: 60,32 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1 Diagstate: 1,231,68,517,272,1 Nodecolor: -13512,-11464,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Module Natural_ch4 Title: CH4 Description: The sub-model where the emissions of methane are calcula~~ ted. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Nov 1, 1991 10:56 AM Defaultsize: 44,12 Nodelocation: 232,216 Nodesize: 60,12 Diagstate: 1,395,391,390,144,1 Fontstyle: Arial, 10 Objective Net_ch4 Title: Net~ CH4 Units: tons/year Description: It is assumed that the natural sources are in rough balan~~ ce with pre-industrial sinks. Hence, they are only symbolically added~~ in here. Definition: 0.5*Ch4_ne+Ch4_ae Nodelocation: 184,64 Nodesize: 32,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,86,52,676,542,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:300M~ Ymaximum:500M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Module Anthropogenic_ch4_so Title: Anthropogenic CH4 sources Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Apr 2, 1998 5:12 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 280,32 Nodesize: 60,20 Diagstate: 1,234,37,438,454,17 Chance Ch4_ae Title: Anthro. Sources Units: tons/year Definition: Dynamic(~ (Ch4_ae_lfil+Ch4_ae_burn+Ch4_ne_coal+Ch4_ne_moo+Ch4_ne_AnW+Ch4_ne_ric~~ e+Ch4_ne_DomW),~ (Ch4_ae_lfil+Ch4_ae_burn+Ch4_ne_coal+Ch4_ne_moo+Ch4_ne_AnW+Ch4_ne_ric~~ e+Ch4_ne_DomW)) Nodelocation: 360,184 Nodesize: 56,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,120,130 Valuestate: 1,96,60,593,517,0,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:200M~ Ymaximum:600M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Variable Ch4_ae_burn Title: BIOMASS Units: tons/year Definition: Dynamic((Initial_biomass_ch4+Scen_fill),((Ch4_Control*Biom~~ ass_ch4_growth)*Initial_biomass_ch4)) Nodelocation: 192,256 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,144,47,548,467,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:20M~ Ymaximum:60M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Ch4_ae_lfil Title: LANDFILLS Units: tons/year Definition: Dynamic((Initial_landfills_ch+Scen_fill),(((Ch4_Control*Po~~ p_g_75_t)*Initial_landfills_ch)+Scen_fill)) Nodelocation: 192,224 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,98,53,649,450,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Ch4_ne_coal Title: Coal Gas and Oil Emissions Units: tons/year Definition: Dynamic((Initial_coal_ch4+Scen_fill),((Initial_coal_ch4*Gr~~ owth_in_1[Time-1])*Ch4_Control)) Nodelocation: 192,88 Nodesize: 48,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,40,50,824,578,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Ch4_ne_moo Title: Enteric Fermentation Units: tons/year Description: ~ Definition: Dynamic(Initial_ef_ch4,(Pop_g_75_t*Initial_ef_ch4)) Nodelocation: 192,328 Nodesize: 52,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,122,74,416,303,1,MIDM Variable Ch4_ne_rice Title: RICE Units: tons/year Description: It is tempting to think of increasing CH4 emissions from ~~ increased demand for rice. This model is rejected here. The followi~~ ng reasons have motivated the use of a constant emission profile:~ ¥ there is little additional land available for wet paddy rice produc~~ tion;~ ¥ the production of paddy rice can increase if the crop rotation is a~~ ccelerated; if this is done rice prodcution goes up and methane emiss~~ ions decline! The fly in the ointment however is that with higher in~~ comes, there may well be demand for high value rices such as "Basmati~~ " rice. In such a case, the crop rotation is actually longer and emi~~ ssion increase. For now, the simple keep the emissios constant model~~ is used. Definition: dynamic(Initial_rice_ch4, Initial_rice_ch4) Nodelocation: 192,288 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,1,MEAN Chance Initial_biomass_ch4 Title: BIOMASS PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from biomass. Data from Table A1~~ .3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC Sc~~ ientific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([20 25 30 55 80]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 64,256 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,0,STAT Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance Initial_landfills_ch Title: LANDFILL PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from landfills. Data from Table ~~ A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC ~~ Scientific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([20 22 25 30 70]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 64,224 Nodesize: 52,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,0,STAT Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance Initial_coal_ch4 Title: Coal Gas and Oil Industries PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from the fossil energy industry.~~ Data from Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary re~~ port to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([70 80 100 110 115 120]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 64,88 Nodesize: 48,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,333,62,416,303,0,STAT Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance Initial_ef_ch4 Title: Enteric Fermentation PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from enteric fermentation. Data ~~ from Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report t~~ o the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([65 75 82.5 100]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 64,328 Nodesize: 56,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,370,171,416,303,0,STAT Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance Initial_rice_ch4 Title: RICE PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from rice paddies. Data from Tab~~ le A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to the IP~~ CC Scientific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([20 25 30 60 150]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 64,288 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,1,PDFP Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Variable Ch4_ne_anw Title: Animal Waste Units: tons/year Description: ~ Definition: Dynamic(Initial_waste_ch1,((Ch4_Control*Pop_g_75_t)*Initia~~ l_waste_ch1)) Nodelocation: 192,136 Nodesize: 48,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,122,74,416,303,1,MIDM Chance Initial_waste_ch1 Title: Animal Waste PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from decomposition of animal was~~ te. Data from Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary~~ report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([20 30]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 64,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,370,171,416,303,0,STAT Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Variable Ch4_ne_domw Title: Domestic Sewage Units: tons/year Description: ~ Definition: Dynamic((Initial_sewage_ch4+Scen_fill),(((Ch4_Control*Pop_~~ g_75_t)*Initial_sewage_ch4)+Scen_fill)) Nodelocation: 192,184 Nodesize: 44,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,122,74,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Initial_sewage_ch4 Title: Domestic Sewage PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from sewage treatment. Data from~~ Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to th~~ e IPCC Scientific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([20 30]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 64,184 Nodesize: 48,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,370,171,416,303,0,STAT Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Variable Reg_ch4_capture Title: Regional Methane Capture for Use Description: In each region a fraction of CH4 emissions is captured fo~~ r use. This fraction is a function of the carbon tax. Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+1, ~ (if Reference_tax[time-1]>200 then 0.3 else ~ 0.975-Reference_tax[time-1]/230)) Nodelocation: 64,32 Nodesize: 56,24 Windstate: 1,194,272 Valuestate: 1,111,110,744,390,0,STAT Variable Change_in__methane_c Title: Change in Methane Capture Description: In each region a fraction of CH4 emissions is captured fo~~ r use. This fraction is a function of the carbon tax. Here, the regi~~ onal share of CH4 use in the commercial markets is used to aggregate ~~ the regional capture figures into a global capture figure. Definition: Sum((Slice(Regional_e_shares,Fuels,1)*Reg_ch4_capture),Reg~~ ions_12) Nodelocation: 176,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,313,92 Valuestate: 1,56,66,529,434,0,STAT Variable Ch4_control Title: Ch4 control Description: In each region a fraction of CH4 emissions is captured fo~~ r use. This fraction is a function of the carbon tax. Here, the regi~~ onal share of CH4 use in the commercial markets is used to aggregate ~~ the regional capture figures into a global capture figure. Definition: dynamic(Change_in__methane_c, ~ Change_in__methane_c * Ch4_control[time-1]) Nodelocation: 280,32 Nodesize: 40,20 Windstate: 1,322,255 Valuestate: 1,56,66,529,434,0,STAT Close Anthropogenic_ch4_so Module Natural_ch4_sources Title: Natural~ CH4 sources Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Apr 2, 1998 5:12 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 80,32 Nodesize: 60,20 Diagstate: 1,-10,411,466,237,17 Chance Ch4_ne Title: Natural Sources Units: tons/year Description: Natural emissions of methane from all sources. Definition: dynamic(Ch4_ne_wetld+Ch4_ne_term+Ch4_ne_ocen+Ch4_ne_fresh+~~ Ch4_ne_hydd,~ Ch4_ne_wetld+Ch4_ne_term+Ch4_ne_ocen+Ch4_ne_fresh+Ch4_ne_hydd) Nodelocation: 330,88 Nodesize: 52,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,STAT Variable Ch4_ne_wetld Title: WETLANDS Units: tons/year Definition: dynamic(Initial_wetland_ch4,Ch4_ne_wetld[time-1]) Nodelocation: 178,24 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,MIDM Variable Ch4_ne_term Title: TERMITES Units: tons/year Definition: dynamic(Initial_termite_ch4,Ch4_ne_term[time-1]) Nodelocation: 178,56 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,200,210,429,369,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:10M~ Xmaximum:50M~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100n~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Variable Ch4_ne_ocen Title: OCEANS Units: tons/year Definition: dynamic(Initial_oceans_ch4,Ch4_ne_ocen[time-1]) Nodelocation: 178,88 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Variable Ch4_ne_fresh Title: FRESH WATER Units: tons/year Definition: dynamic(Initial_fresh_ch4,Ch4_ne_fresh[time-1]) Nodelocation: 178,120 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Variable Ch4_ne_hydd Title: CLATHRATES Units: tons/year Definition: dynamic(Initial_hydrate_ch4,Ch4_ne_hydd[time-1]) Nodelocation: 178,152 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,152,162,824,578,1,MIDM Chance Initial_wetland_ch4 Title: WETLAND PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from natural wet lands. Data fro~~ m Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to t~~ he IPCC Scientific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([100 102 103 105 200]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 50,24 Nodesize: 52,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,STAT Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance Initial_termite_ch4 Title: TERMITE PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from termites. Data from Table A~~ 1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([10 11 14 20 25 50]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 50,56 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,206,139,558,450,1,CDFP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:10M~ Xmaximum:50M~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance Initial_oceans_ch4 Title: OCEAN PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from oceans. Data from Table A1.~~ 3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC Sci~~ entific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([5 6.5 9 12 20]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 50,88 Nodesize: 48,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,0,STAT Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance Initial_fresh_ch4 Title: FR. WATER PDF Units: tons/year Description: Annual methane emissions from bodies of fresh water. Data~~ from Table A1.3 of the Climate Change1992: the supplementary report ~~ to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Definition: Fractiles([1 1.1 1.9 4 25]) * 10^6 Nodelocation: 48,120 Nodesize: 50,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,0,STAT Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance Initial_hydrate_ch4 Title: CLATHRATE PDF Units: tons/year Description: Emissions per year of methane from clathrate decompositio~~ n. Data from Table 1.2 page 20 of IPPC (Cambridge 1990). Definition: Fractiles([0 0.01 0.02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09 100]) *~~ 10^6 Nodelocation: 50,152 Nodesize: 56,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,184,194,416,303,0,STAT Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Close Natural_ch4_sources Close Natural_ch4 Module N2o Title: N2O Description: NitrousOxide emissions are calculated in this module. Author: hd10 Date: Thu, Feb 13, 1992 11:24 AM Nodelocation: 232,104 Nodesize: 60,12 Diagstate: 1,75,47,458,272,1 Fontstyle: Arial, 9 Objective Net_n2o Title: Net~ N2O Units: tons/year Description: Matching sources and sinks of emissions, while assuming i~~ ndependence of paramters does not lead to a result compatible with th~~ e observed rate of release of N2O into the atmosphere. I have constr~~ ucted the ifonly statements to limit the emissions to the range sugge~~ sted in the IPCC report. Definition: Dynamic(Evaluate_p(Sum_n2o,Uf_ghg),Evaluate_p(Sum_n2o,Uf_g~~ hg)) Nodelocation: 224,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,196,68,542,569,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective Sum_n2o Title: Sum~ N2O Units: tons/year Description: The natural sources are assumed to be in balance with na~~ tural sinks. Hence they are not included in the calculation of changi~~ ng N20 concentrations in the atmosphere. Definition: Dynamic(~ Sum_anthropogenic_n2+Sum_natural_N2O/100, Sum_anthropogenic_n2+Sum_na~~ tural_N2O/100) Nodelocation: 224,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,323,244 Valuestate: 1,257,95,506,510,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Module Natural_n2o_sources Title: Natural N2O Sources Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Apr 9, 1998 1:53 PM Nodelocation: 88,80 Nodesize: 64,32 Diagstate: 1,208,206,444,331,17 Chance Initial_oceans_n2o Title: Initial Oceans N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(1.4,2.6)*10^6 Nodelocation: 88,32 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance N2o_oceans Title: N2O Oceans Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(Initial_oceans_n2o, N2O_Oceans[time - 1] ) Nodelocation: 248,32 Nodesize: 64,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,1,MIDM Chance Initial_soils_low_la Title: Initial Tropical Soils N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. But the sum of emissions does not match tho~~ se in the IPCC report. Hence the two items for which no emission lev~~ els were given were each assigned an emission level of 1TgN so that t~~ he total emissions of N2O would match that from the IPCC. Definition: Uniform(1.1 ,1.1)*10^6 Nodelocation: 88,72 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance Initial_soil_hi_lat Title: Initial Wet Forests N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(2.2,3.7)*10^6 Nodelocation: 88,112 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance N2o_tropicalsoils Title: N2O Tropical Soils Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soils_low_la,N2o_tropicalsoils[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 248,72 Nodesize: 64,20 Chance N2o_wetforests Title: N20 Wet Forests Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soil_hi_lat,N2o_wetforests[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 248,112 Nodesize: 64,20 Chance Initial_soil_hi_lat1 Title: Initial Dry Savannas N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(0.5,2.0)*10^6 Nodelocation: 88,152 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance N2o_drysavannas Title: N20 Dry Savannas Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soil_hi_lat1,N2o_drysavannas[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 248,152 Nodesize: 64,20 Chance Initial_soil_hi_lat2 Title: Initial Temperate Soils N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(0,0)*10^6 Nodelocation: 88,192 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance N2o_temperatesoils Title: N20 Temperate Soils Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soil_hi_lat2,N2o_temperatesoils[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 248,192 Nodesize: 64,20 Chance Initial_soil_hi_lat3 Title: Initial Forests N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(0.05,2.0)*10^6 Nodelocation: 88,232 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance N2o_forests Title: N20 Forests Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soil_hi_lat3,N2o_forests[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 248,232 Nodesize: 64,20 Chance Initial_soil_hi_lat4 Title: Initial Grasslands N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. But the sum of emissions does not match tho~~ se in the IPCC report. Hence the two items for which no emission lev~~ els were given were each assigned an emission level of 1TgN so that t~~ he total emissions of N2O would match that from the IPCC. Definition: Uniform(1.1 ,1.1)*10^6 Nodelocation: 88,272 Nodesize: 60,20 Windstate: 1,261,189 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Chance N2o_grasslands Title: N20 Grasslands Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(Initial_soil_hi_lat4,N2o_grasslands[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 248,272 Nodesize: 64,20 Objective Sum_natural_n2o Title: Sum Natural~ N2O Units: tons/year Definition: dynamic(N2o_oceans+N2o_tropicalsoils+N2o_wetforests+N2o_dr~~ ysavannas+N2o_temperatesoils+N2o_forests+N2o_grasslands, N2o_oceans+N~~ 2o_tropicalsoils+N2o_wetforests+N2o_drysavannas+N2o_temperatesoils+N2~~ o_forests+N2o_grasslands) Nodelocation: 376,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Natural_n2o_sources Module Anthropogenic_n20_so Title: Anthropogenic N20 Sources Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Apr 9, 1998 1:53 PM Nodelocation: 352,80 Nodesize: 64,32 Diagstate: 1,181,80,443,542,17 Chance Regional_n2o_control Title: Regional N2O Control Description: This factor modifies emissions from N2O sources through t~~ ime. Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+1, ~ (if Reference_tax[time-1]>200 then 0.3 else ~ 0.9-Reference_tax[time-1]/230)) Nodelocation: 64,32 Nodesize: 56,20 Windstate: 1,213,328 Valuestate: 1,111,110,416,303,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -13107,-1,-26215 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Initial_cultivatedso Title: Initial Cultivated Soils N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(0.03, 3.0)*10^6 Nodelocation: 64,352 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC ~~ Scientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. V~~ arney, Cambridge University Press Variable N2o_cultivatedsoils Title: N20 Cultivated Soils Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(Initial_cultivatedso,((Change_in_nitrogen_e*Pop_g_~~ 75_t)*Initial_cultivatedso)) Nodelocation: 224,352 Nodesize: 64,20 Windstate: 1,190,175 Valuestate: 1,136,146,593,433,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Initial_biomassburn Title: Initial Biomass Burning N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(0.2, 1.0)*10^6 Nodelocation: 64,432 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Variable N2o_biomassburning Title: N20 Biomass Burning Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future ~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(Initial_biomassburn,~ N2o_biomassburning[time-1]*Change_in_biomass_bu) Nodelocation: 224,432 Nodesize: 64,20 Windstate: 1,109,98 Valuestate: 1,264,241,545,464,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Initial_stationaryco Title: Initial Stationary Combustion N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(0.1, 0.3)*10^6 Nodelocation: 64,160 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Variable N2o_stationarycombus Title: N20 Stationary Combustion Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(scen_fill+Initial_stationaryco,((Change_in_station~~ ary*Initial_stationaryco)*slice(N2O_control, fuels, 3))) Nodelocation: 224,160 Nodesize: 64,20 Windstate: 1,465,301 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Initial_mobilecombus Title: Initial Mobile Combustion N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(0.2, 0.6)*10^6 Nodelocation: 64,208 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Variable N2o_mobilecombust Title: N20 Mobile Combustion Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(scen_fill+Initial_mobilecombus,((Change_in_transpo~~ rta*Initial_mobilecombus)*slice(N2O_control, fuels, 2))) Nodelocation: 224,208 Nodesize: 64,20 Windstate: 1,382,444 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Initial_adipicacid Title: Initial Adipic Acid Production N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(0.4, 0.6)*10^6 Nodelocation: 64,256 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Variable N2o_adipicacid Title: N20 Adipic Acid Production Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic(scen_fill+Initial_adipicacid,((Pop_g_75_t*Initial_~~ adipicacid)*slice(N2O_control, fuels, 3))) Nodelocation: 224,256 Nodesize: 64,20 Windstate: 1,381,445 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Initial_nitricacid Title: Initial Nitric Acid Production N2O Units: tons/year Description: Range of Nitrous Oxide emissions as published in Climate ~~ Change 1992; Table A1.5. Definition: Uniform(0.1, 0.3)*10^6 Nodelocation: 64,304 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,CONF Reference: Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report of the IPCC S~~ cientific Assessment, Eds. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Collander, and S.K. Va~~ rney, Cambridge University Press Variable N2o_nitricacid Title: N20 Nitric Acid Production Units: tons/year Description: Dynamic function linking initial N2O emisisons to future~~ N2O emissions Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill+Initial_nitricacid+Scen_fill),((Pop_g_7~~ 5_t*Initial_nitricacid)*slice(N2O_control, fuels, 3))) Nodelocation: 224,304 Nodesize: 64,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective Sum_anthropogenic_n2 Title: Sum Anthropogenic N2O Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+~ (N2o_cultivatedsoils+N2o_biomassburning+N2o_stationarycombus+N2o_mobi~~ lecombust+N2o_adipicacid+N2o_nitricacid),~ (N2o_cultivatedsoils+N2o_biomassburning+N2o_stationarycombus+N2o_mobi~~ lecombust+N2o_adipicacid+N2o_nitricacid)) Nodelocation: 368,296 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,104,114,525,380,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Change_in_n2o_contro Title: Change in N2O Control Definition: sum((regional_n2O_control*Regional_E_shares), regions_12) Nodelocation: 128,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Time,Fuels] Variable N2o_control Title: N2O Control Definition: Dynamic(Change_in_n2o_contro,~ Change_in_n2o_contro*N2o_control[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 128,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Time,Fuels] Chance Change_in_nitrogen_e Title: Change in Nitrogen Efficiency in agriculture Definition: Dynamic(1,(Change_in_nitrogen_e[Time-1]*Normal(0.9,0.1))) Nodelocation: 88,384 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,1,STAT Nodecolor: -13107,-1,-26215 Chance Change_in_biomass_bu Title: Change in Biomass Burning Practice Definition: Dynamic(normal(0.95,0.1), Change_in_biomass_bu[time-1]*nor~~ mal(0.95,0.1)) Nodelocation: 96,464 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,56,66,435,414,1,SAMP Nodecolor: -13107,-1,-26215 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0.8~ Ymaximum:1.2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Run] Close Anthropogenic_n20_so Close N2o Module Carbon Title: Fossil Carbon Description: This is the carbon emissions module. Fossil emissions, t~~ he biospheric sink and land use emissiosn are all gathered here. The~~ node "C emissions" is where all of these come together and are passe~~ d onto the MR-H reduced form ocean uptake model. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Nov 6, 1994 5:30 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 416,88 Nodesize: 44,28 Diagstate: 1,144,98,406,144,1 Module Emissions3 Title: Carbon Emissions~ Management Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Nov 15, 1996 21:34 Nodelocation: 96,48 Nodesize: 60,24 Diagstate: 1,119,274,449,276,17 Objective Un_carbon Title: Regional Carbon Emissions Units: GT/yr Description: I copied over the Regional sulfur emissions and hopefully~~ this will work for carbon. Definition: Dynamic(Sum(((Fuel_use_by_region*Carbon_content3)*(1-Co2_c~~ m)),Fuels),Sum(((Fuel_use_by_region*Carbon_content3)*(1-Co2_cm)),Fuel~~ s)) Nodelocation: 200,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,256,201 Valuestate: 1,181,89,492,471,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Regional_carbon_emi1, Alias Regional_carbon_emis, Formnode~~ Regional_carbon_emi2 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.1,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.9,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Module Carbon_management_by Title: Carbon Management by Fuel Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 14 May, 1998 15:04 Nodelocation: 64,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Diagstate: 1,44,135,462,321,17 Objective Co2_cm Title: CO2 Sequestration Description: Evidence now abounds that at a shadow price of less than ~~ $100, it is possible to sequester carbon at source. For now, I will ~~ impose this on coal use, which is more centralized, and keep it at th~~ e fixed $100/TC value. Definition: ((Inertia_limited_carb*Cm_limit)*Carbon_cm) Nodelocation: 304,160 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,216,226 Valuestate: 1,189,83,529,519,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Co2_sequestration Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Carbon_cm Title: Fossil Carbon is Sequestered Description: I have made a simple assumption here that gas and oil CO2~~ will be more difficult to sequester than coal, because coal is usual~~ ly consumed in a more centralized pattern. Definition: Table(Fuels)(~ Cm_gas_oil,Cm_gas_oil,Cm_coal,0) Nodelocation: 304,104 Nodesize: 48,20 Defnstate: 1,219,291,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Cm_time Title: No CM backsliding Description: The supposition is that carbon management is expensive in~~ capital and expenses, nevertheless if the carbon price falls we do n~~ ot backslide on controls. Definition: dynamic(Mc_cm, ~ if mc_cm > 1 then 1 else ~ if mc_cm> cm_time[time-1] then mc_cm else cm_time[time-1]) Nodelocation: 64,200 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,409,41,352,563,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Cm_gas_oil Title: Control of Gas and Oil Emissions Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+0.5, ~ if Cm_gas_oil[time-1] = 1 then 1 else~ if carbon_tax[time-1] > max_cm_cost then 1 else 0.5) Nodelocation: 248,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,303,210 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Cm_coal Title: Control of Coal Emissions Definition: scen_fill+1 Nodelocation: 344,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Chance Cm_dt Title: Rate of Change in Carbon Management Definition: Dynamic(unc_un_scen, ~ if cm_time[time-1] > 0 then~ Cm_time/Cm_time[time-1] else 0) Nodelocation: 64,120 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,409,41,414,551,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.01~ Ymaximum:0.01~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Numberformat: 1,D,4,2,0,0 Chance Inertia_limited_carb Title: Inertia Limited Carbon Management Definition: Dynamic(Unc_un_scen,(If ((Cm_time[Time-1]=0) And (Cm_time>~~ 0)) Then 5m Else (If (Cm_dt>Cmdt_max) Then (Cmdt_max*Inertia_limited_~~ carb[Time-1]) Else (If ((Cmdt_max*Inertia_limited_carb[Time-1])>Cm_ti~~ me) Then Cm_time Else (Cmdt_max*Inertia_limited_carb[Time-1]))))) Nodelocation: 168,160 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,336,46,417,505,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Constant Cm_limit Title: CM Diffusion Limit Definition: 0.99 Nodelocation: 304,224 Nodesize: 44,20 Constant Cmdt_max Title: CM Expansion Rate Limit Definition: 9^0.5 Nodelocation: 168,224 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,0,MIDM Close Carbon_management_by Chance Transportation_fuel Title: Transportation Fuel Units: Ej?yr Description: This is a rough indication of transportation fuel. Definition: Oil_produc1 Nodelocation: 72,88 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,218,228 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Change_in_transporta Title: Change in Transportation Combustion Definition: Transportation_fuel/mobile1975 Nodelocation: 208,88 Nodesize: 44,24 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Stationary_fuel Title: Stationary Fuel Units: Ej?yr Description: This is a rough indication of transportation fuel. Definition: gas_produc1+coal_produ1 Nodelocation: 80,160 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Change_in_stationary Title: Change in Stationary Combustion Definition: Stationary_fuel/Stationary_1975 Nodelocation: 216,160 Nodesize: 44,24 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Stationary_1975 Title: Stationary 1975 Units: EJ/Yr Definition: dynamic(stationary_fuel, Stationary_1975[time-1]) Nodelocation: 144,200 Nodesize: 40,12 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Mobile1975 Title: Mobile1975 Units: EJ/Yr Definition: Dynamic(Transportation_fuel,Mobile1975[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 136,112 Nodesize: 36,12 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Emissions3 Module Cost_of_abatement Title: Cost of Abatement Author: Hadi Date: Fri, Nov 15, 1996 21:34 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 288,48 Nodesize: 60,24 Diagstate: 1,250,39,444,370,17 Objective Abatement_expediture Title: Abatement Expeditures Units: $/Y Definition: Cost_of_abatment_wit Nodelocation: 200,224 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,80,62,623,518,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Carbon_abated Title: carbon abated Units: TC/Y Description: This is the level of emissions reductions due to the poli~~ cy interventions Definition: ((Slice(Un_carbon,Intervention,1)-Un_carbon)*1G) Nodelocation: 320,16 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,61,156,638,497,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-5G~ Ymaximum:5G~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Learning_index Title: Learning Index Description: Triangular( 0.75, 0.85, 0.95 ) Definition: Ipcc_price_sce2 Nodelocation: 72,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,MIDM Objective Cost_of_abatment_wit Title: Cost of Abatment With or w/o Learning Definition: dynamic(Marginal_cost, Marginal_cost+Ld*Cost_of_abatment_w~~ it[time-1]) Nodelocation: 200,144 Nodesize: 44,28 Valuestate: 1,126,121,544,523,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100G~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Marginal_abatement Title: Marginal Abatement Definition: dynamic(Carbon_abated, ~ Carbon_abated - Carbon_abated[time-1]) Nodelocation: 320,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,651,432,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Marginal_cost Title: Marginal Cost Definition: carbon_tax*Marginal_abatement Nodelocation: 320,128 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,187,206,460,335,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Ld Title: Are there Economics of Learning? Definition: if Scenario_scale_econo = 'YES' then Learning_index else 1~~ Nodelocation: 72,112 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM Module Carbon_management_ec Title: Carbon Management Economics Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 14 May, 1998 15:04 Nodelocation: 72,192 Nodesize: 44,24 Diagstate: 1,284,210,435,220,17 Objective Mc_cm Title: Fractional Carbon Management Description: Current assessments suggest that the least expensive CM t~~ echnologies start at about $31/TCO2, and rise to 90 at their extreme ~~ Herzog et al. (1997). In $ per Tonne of Caron these figures are 44/12~~ higher. The opportunities for CM do not start at $110/TC however, t~~ here are some low hanging fruit which should be included. If availab~~ le regionally. An example is coal-bed methane. Japan does not have a~~ ny of this, but China does. So, there is a regional multiplier indic~~ ating availability of these CM management options at lower control co~~ sts. Definition: dynamic(unc_UN_scen, if Regional_carbon_tax[time-1] < min_~~ cm_cost then ~ Regional_carbon_tax[time-1] / (min_cm_cost*10) else~ if Regional_carbon_tax[time-1] > max_cm_cost then 1 else~ 0.1+(Regional_carbon_tax[time-1]-min_cm_cost)/(max_cm_cost-min_cm_cos~~ t)) Nodelocation: 216,168 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,102,243 Valuestate: 1,72,82,612,499,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Reference: Herzog et al. (1997) Chance Mc_cm1 Title: Marginal Cost of Carbon Management Description: Current assessments suggest that the least expensive CM t~~ echnologies start at about $30/TCO2, and rise to 90 at their extreme ~~ Herzog et al. (1997). The equivalent numbers per ton of Carbon is Definition: sample(Uniform( 110, 330 )) Nodelocation: 216,88 Nodesize: 44,24 Reference: Herzog et al. (1997) Chance Max_cm_cost Title: Max cost Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+max(Mc_cm1, run),~ if ld_counter > 0 then~ ld^(1/ld_counter)*max_cm_cost[time-1] else~ max_cm_cost[time-1]) Nodelocation: 320,88 Nodesize: 32,12 Windstate: 1,120,130 Valuestate: 1,120,130,513,533,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:114.4~ Ymaximum:114.4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Min_cm_cost Title: Min cost Definition: dynamic(min(Mc_cm1, run),~ if ld_counter > 0 then~ ld^(1/ld_counter)*min_cm_cost[time-1] else~ min_cm_cost[time-1]) Nodelocation: 112,88 Nodesize: 36,12 Valuestate: 1,266,222,416,303,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:200~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Ld_counter Title: Cumulative CM Experience Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+0, ~ If LD_counter[time-1] >= 1 then LD_counter[time-1]+ 1 else~ if Regional_carbon_tax[Time-1]>=15 Then 1 else 0) Nodelocation: 216,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:200~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Carbon_management_ec Chance Ipcc_price_sce2 Title: IPCC Price Scenario II Description: Degree prices fall with experience measured as a doubling~~ of installed capacity. Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then Triangular(0.7,0.8,0.~~ 9) Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then Triangular(0.7,0.8,0.9) ~~ Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then Triangular(0.7,0.8,0.9) Els~~ e Triangular(0.75,0.85,0.95)))) Nodelocation: 192,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Objective Av_cost_of_c_seq Title: Average Cost of Carbon Sequestration Units: $/tC Definition: if carbon_abated < 0 then 0 else~ if Abatement_expediture <=0 then 0 else~ Abatement_expediture/Carbon_abated Nodelocation: 320,224 Nodesize: 40,24 Windstate: 1,99,277 Valuestate: 1,56,66,455,405,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close Cost_of_abatement Close Carbon Objective Global_carbon_emissi Title: Global Carbon Emissions Units: PgC/yr Description: The landuse change and fossil fuel emissions are added up~~ here. Definition: Dynamic((Sum(Un_carbon,Regions_12)+Co2_land_use),(Sum(Un_c~~ arbon,Regions_12)+Co2_land_use)) Nodelocation: 416,160 Nodesize: 48,16 Windstate: 1,274,291 Valuestate: 1,231,89,578,517,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Global_carbon_emiss1, Formnode Global_carbon_emiss2 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:4~ Ymaximum:20~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:8~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.1,0.5,0.9]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,F,4,0,0,0 Module So2 Title: SO2 Description: Sulfate, oragnic carbon, and elemental carbon emissions a~~ re calculated in this module. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Nov 6, 1994 5:30 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 232,72 Nodesize: 60,12 Diagstate: 1,41,201,518,317,17 Module Sulfur_dio Title: Sulfur Dioxide Control Description: Sulfur controls are a function of income, and technologic~~ al development. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Mar 10, 1994 3:33 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 272,40,0 Nodesize: 44,24 Diagstate: 1,153,92,588,353,21 Function F_s_growth(x0, g, max, time) Title: S_growth Description: This feeds into the diffusion of controls for sulfur. Definition: max/(1+(max/x0-1)*exp(-g*time)) Nodelocation: 336,288,0 Nodesize: 40,20 Windstate: 1,459,197 Paramnames: x0,g,max,time Chance F_growth Title: Growth in~ S Controls Description: Time dynamics of the improvement in sulfur controls. Definition: Dynamic(Initial_contrate_so2,(If ((Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1~~ ]/F_threshold)>0.3) Then 0.3 Else (If ((Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1]/F_th~~ reshold) 2015 then 1 else 1 Nodelocation: 56,224,0 Nodesize: 40,20 Valuestate: 1,126,98,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Intial_st_u Title: Intial State Uncertainties Description: This uncertain node has been added in order to cure a rec~~ urring problem of rectangularized arrays in DEMOS. There is no basis~~ for values chosen other than to fix a bug. Definition: (Evaluate_p((normal(1,1m)), UF_Aerosol)) Nodelocation: 144,48,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance S_control Title: S Control Scenario Modifier Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then S_control__ipcc_a1 El~~ se (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then S_control__ipcc_a2 Else (If (~~ Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then S_control__ipcc_b1 Else (If (Choose_a~~ n_ipcc_scena='B2') Then S_control__ipcc_b2 Else S_control__base)))) Nodelocation: 368,112,0 Nodesize: 44,24 Objective Sulfur_control2 Title: Sulfur Control With Economic and Social Rules Definition: dynamic(f_control_s,~ if sulfur_control2[time-1] > F_control_s then sulfur_control2[time-1]~~ else if Are_so2_emission_tol = 'Yes' then F_control_s else ~ 0.5*(1-sulfur_control2[time-1])+sulfur_control2[time-1]) Nodelocation: 512,160,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,392,319 Valuestate: 1,0,0,1024,667,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Module Modifications_to_ica Title: Modifications to ICAM to accomodate IPCC Scenarios Author: Default Date: Thu, Nov 04, 1999 3:40 PM Nodelocation: 360,40,1 Nodesize: 60,28 Chance S_control__ipcc_a1 Title: S Control ~ IPCC A1 Definition: Table(Time)(~ 1.3,1.4,1.4,1.5,1.3,1.2,1.1,1,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.925,0.92~~ 5,0.925,0.925,0.925,0.925,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95) Nodelocation: 128,24,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,395,359 Defnstate: 1,40,50,403,423,0,MIDM Chance S_control__base Title: S Control ~ Base Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 208,24,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance S_control__ipcc_a2 Title: S Control ~ IPCC A2 Definition: Table(Time)(~ 1.3,1.4,1.4,1.5,1.3,1.2,1.05,0.95,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.86,~~ 0.8675,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97) Nodelocation: 144,32,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,366,82,445,508,0,MIDM Chance S_control__ipcc_b1 Title: S Control ~ IPCC B1 Definition: Table(Time)(~ 1.5,1.5,1.5,1.5,1.3,1.2,1.05,0.95,0.85,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.822,~~ 0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.875) Nodelocation: 48,24,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,366,82,174,531,0,MIDM Chance S_control__ipcc_b2 Title: S Control ~ IPCC B2 Definition: Table(Time)(~ 1.5,1.5,1.5,1.5,1.3,1,0.75,0.62,0.55,0.525,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.~~ 615,0.615,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.7) Nodelocation: 72,48,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,394,73,174,531,0,MIDM Close Modifications_to_ica Close Sulfur_dio Objective Reg_s Title: Regional Sulfur Emissions Units: TgS/y Description: These are the emissions of sulfur for the different UN re~~ gions, based on the fuel model. Sulfur controls and Carbon control b~~ oth remove sulfur emissions. Definition: Dynamic(~ (Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*Fuel_sulfu),Fuels)*~ (1-sulfur_control2)*~ (1-cm_time)),~ (Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*Fuel_sulfu),Fuels)*~ (1-sulfur_control2)*~ (1-cm_time))) Nodelocation: 200,112,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,46,195 Valuestate: 1,56,56,635,544,1,SAMP Nodecolor: -1,-4,19661 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:1~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:80K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Fuel_sulfu Title: Fuel Sulfur Content Units: kg/GJ Description: For a global measure, we assumed that If oil has a sulfur~~ content of .5% by mass 0.111, coal at 2.5% by mass 0.853 g/GJ. This~~ feeds into the amount of sulfur emitted, given the fuel mix from the~~ fuels module. In order to get the regional emissions more accurate,~~ we modified the sulfure contents by region. For example, the sulfur ~~ content of coal in the US was increased while that in Japan was decre~~ ased. Definition: Table(Fuels,Regions_12)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0.2,0.111,0.111,0.111,0.111,0.2,0.111,0.111,0.111,0.111,0.111,0.05,~ 1.2,0.853,0.853,0.853,0.853,0.853,0.853,0.3,0.853,0.853,0.853,0.4,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 64,112,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,233,242 Defnstate: 1,249,200,476,352,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Fuels,Regions_12] Module So2_atmospheric_life Title: SO2 Atmospheric~ Lifetime Description: Sulfur emissions are mostly in the form of SO2, or are ox~~ idized to SO2 soon after release. ~ ¥ The relative concentration of SO2 and SO4 depends on the height at ~~ which SO2 is released. For that reason, I develop a module of sulfur~~ release points and its evolution through time. ~ ¥ The key insight here is the relative release from households and la~~ rge point sources. I am assuming local sources will diminish while p~~ oint source fractions rise. ~ ¥ The issue of SO2 control from these sources is addresssed in anothe~~ r part of ICAM. Author: Hadi Date: Wed, Oct 16, 1996 12:39 Nodelocation: 400,40,0 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,80,249,480,299,17 Chance Sulfate_fr Title: Sulfate~ Fraction Description: Charlson argues that 40% of SO2 is converted to sulfate. ~~ I think he means this for emissions in the US and an assumed SO2 lif~~ etime of 25 hours. ~ ~ Therefore, I have normalized his estimate for our stack height factor~~ (0.89). This modified figure for 1990 is now in better corresponden~~ ce with those published by Seinfeld and Rhode. Definition: Evaluate_p((0.4/0.89*Normal(1,.2)), UF_Aerosol)* sulfate_c~~ onversion Nodelocation: 232,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Windstate: 1,237,208 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Reference: Charlson, R. J., J. Langer, H. Rodhe, et al. (1991). "Pertu~~ rbation of the northern hemisphere radiative balance by backscatterin~~ g from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols." Tellus 43AB: 152-63.~ ~ Charlson, R. J., S. E. Schwartz, J. M. Hales, et al. (1992). "Climate~~ Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols." Science 255(5043): 423-30.~ Constant Tall_stack_fraction_ Title: Tall Stack Fraction 1975 Description: This is the ratio of So2 emissions from taller sources in~~ 1975. Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.5,0.15,0.4,0.25,0.2,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.5,0.5) Nodelocation: 72,40 Nodesize: 60,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Defnstate: 1,172,85,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Tall_fraction_throug Title: Tall Fraction Through Time Definition: dynamic( Tall_stack_fraction_, Tall_stack_fraction_,~ Tall_stack_fraction_,~ F_s_growth(Tall_stack_fraction_, Rate_of_change, .95, (Time-1985))) Nodelocation: 232,64 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,121,63,575,518,0,MIDM Reformval: [Regions_12,Time] Chance Rate_of_change Title: Rate of change of Chimney Height Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.1,0.05,0.1,0.075,0.075,0.05,0.05,0.075,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1) Nodelocation: 376,32 Nodesize: 64,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Defnstate: 1,72,134,207,293,0,MIDM Chance So2_lifetime Title: SO2 Lifetime Units: hours Description: This parameter reflects the mixture of two lifeTimes New ~~ Roman for SO2, one at elevation, the other close to the ground. I am~~ assuming the ¥ SO2 released close to the ground has a lifetime of 12~~ hours, and ¥ SO2 which released at height 48 hours. Definition: 1/((1-Tall_fraction_throug)/12 + (Tall_fraction_throug/48)~~ ) Nodelocation: 232,120 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Windstate: 1,168,178 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Reference: Senifeld and Pandis (1998) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physic~~ s, John Wiley and Sons, NY. Chance Sulfate_conversion Title: sulfate conversion Definition: So2_lifetime/25 Nodelocation: 232,176 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,104,67,513,349,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Tau_so2 Title: SO2 Life Units: 1/Yr Description: This is the fraction of a year for which SO2 stays in th~~ e atmosphere. Definition: so2_lifetime/8766 Nodelocation: 368,120 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,47,180,591,442,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close So2_atmospheric_life Decision Are_so2_emission_tol Title: Are SO2 Emission Tolerable? Definition: dynamic(UN_scen, if areal_s[time-1] > 5.5u then 'No' else ~~ 'Yes') Nodelocation: 352,112,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Windstate: 1,385,258 Valuestate: 1,289,133,622,430,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Areal_s Title: Sulfur Emissions per Area Units: tg/sq km Definition: Reg_s/total_regional_areas Nodelocation: 272,192,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,299,78,525,493,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close So2 Module Regional_aerosols Title: Regional Aerosols Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Nov 1, 1994 9:41 AM Nodelocation: 72,72 Nodesize: 56,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,150,226,473,301,1 Chance Corr_oc Title: Corrected OC emissions Description: BC is emitted along with OC, and affects the forcing. The~~ amount (ratio) of BC is a function of the type of burning that goes ~~ on. Definition: {Dynamic(Table(Regions)(~ (((Oecd_bioma*Unc_bc_bio)+(Oecd_savan*Unc_bc_sav))+(Oecd_deforest*Unc~~ _bc_for)),(((Cis___cmea*Unc_bc_bio)+(Cis_savan*Unc_bc_sav))+(Cis_defo~~ rest*Unc_bc_for)),(((China___cp*Unc_bc_bio)+(China_savan*Unc_bc_sav))~~ +(China_deforest*Unc_bc_for)),(((Mid_east_b*Unc_bc_bio)+(Mid_savan*Un~~ c_bc_sav))+(Mid_deforest*Unc_bc_for)),(((Africa_bio*Unc_bc_bio)+(Afri~~ ca_savan*Unc_bc_sav))+(Africa_deforest*Unc_bc_for)),(((Latin_amer*Unc~~ _bc_bio)+(La_savan*Unc_bc_sav))+(La_deforest*Unc_bc_for)),(((Se_asia_~~ bi*Unc_bc_bio)+(Se_savan*Unc_bc_sav))+(Se_deforest*Unc_bc_for))),Tabl~~ e(Regions)(~ (((Oecd_bioma*Unc_bc_bio)+(Oecd_savan*Unc_bc_sav))+(Oecd_deforest*Unc~~ _bc_for)),(((Cis___cmea*Unc_bc_bio)+(Cis_savan*Unc_bc_sav))+(Cis_defo~~ rest*Unc_bc_for)),(((China___cp*Unc_bc_bio)+(China_savan*Unc_bc_sav))~~ +(China_deforest*Unc_bc_for)),(((Mid_east_b*Unc_bc_bio)+(Mid_savan*Un~~ c_bc_sav))+(Mid_deforest*Unc_bc_for)),(((Africa_bio*Unc_bc_bio)+(Afri~~ ca_savan*Unc_bc_sav))+(Africa_deforest*Unc_bc_for)),(((Latin_amer*Unc~~ _bc_bio)+(La_savan*Unc_bc_sav))+(La_deforest*Unc_bc_for)),(((Se_asia_~~ bi*Unc_bc_bio)+(Se_savan*Unc_bc_sav))+(Se_deforest*Unc_bc_for))))}0 Nodelocation: 112,40 Nodesize: 44,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Windstate: 1,218,169 Defnstate: 1,59,96,639,308,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,298,236,478,351,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Corr_s Title: Corrected Sulfate emissions Units: TgS/yr Description: The regional black carbon emissions are have been estimat~~ ed as a function of income. Here their impact on sulfate albedo is s~~ ubtracted according to their mass fraction. Definition: Dynamic(((Reg_s*Sulfate_fr)*(1-((Dynamic_bc*0.4)*Sulfur_un~~ c))),((Reg_s*Sulfate_fr)*(1-((Dynamic_bc*0.4)*Sulfur_unc)))) Nodelocation: 112,160 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,139,87 Defnstate: 1,40,50,738,294,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,92,92,608,438,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Lat_oc Title: OC in 6 Regions Description: This is step one in converting to emissions from UN regio~~ ns to latitude bands. Definition: Dynamic(Sum((Corr_oc*A12_to_6),Regions_12),Sum((Corr_oc*A1~~ 2_to_6),Regions_12)) Nodelocation: 248,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,89,121 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Latitudes] Chance Regional_s_6 Title: S in 6 Regions Units: TgS/yr Description: This is step one in converting to emissions from UN regio~~ ns to correspond with the climate model specification. Definition: Dynamic(Sum((Corr_s*A12_to_6),Regions_12),Sum((Corr_s*A12_~~ to_6),Regions_12)) Nodelocation: 248,136 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,99,73 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_6] Chance Lat_oc_uncertainty Title: OC Uncertainty Units: TgOC/yr Description: This is the summation along the regional index to give th~~ e latitudinal emissions. Definition: dynamic(Evaluate_p(lat_oc , Uf_aer_m), Evaluate_p(lat_oc ,~~ Uf_aer_m))~ Nodelocation: 360,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,149,43,632,225,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Latitudes] Chance Lat_s_uncertainty Title: S Uncertainty Units: TgS/yr Description: This is the summation along the regional index to give th~~ e latitudinal emissions. Definition: Dynamic(Evaluate_p(Regional_s_6,Uf_aer_m),Evaluate_p(Regio~~ nal_s_6,Uf_aer_m)) Nodelocation: 360,136 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,272,334 Valuestate: 1,83,40,626,438,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_6] Chance Sulfur_unc Title: Sulfur Correction Uncertainty Definition: evaluate_p(Normal(1,0.2), Uf_aer_m) Nodelocation: 72,232 Nodesize: 44,24 Constant A12_to_6 Title: 12 Region to 6 Region Emission Matrix Description: This is the matrix that converts from UN Regions to Latit~~ udinal Bands. Definition: Table(Regions_12,Regions_6)(~ 0,0,0,0,1,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0.5,0.5,~ 1,0,0,0,0,0,~ 1,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,1,0,0,0,~ 0,1,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,1,~ 0,1,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,1,0,0,~ 0,0,0,1,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,1,~ 0,0,0,1,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 112,96 Nodesize: 52,24 Defnstate: 1,46,100,741,318,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,75,167,719,412,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Regions_6,Regions_12] Reformval: [Regions_6,Regions_12] Chance A12_region_sulfate_b Title: 12 Region sulfate burden Units: gS/m^2 Definition: (1T/Reg_12_areas)*Reg_s*Sulfate_fr Nodelocation: 248,240 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,274,216 Valuestate: 1,147,83,623,512,0,MIDM Reformval: [Regions_12,Time] Chance A12_regions_with_bc Title: 12 Regions with BC Definition: 1t*Corr_s/reg_12_areas Nodelocation: 248,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Compare_with_and_wit Title: compare with and without BC Definition: [A12_region_sulfate_b, A12_regions_with_bc] Indexvals: ['12 Region sulfate burden','12 Regions with BC'] Nodelocation: 360,216 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,660,487,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Self] Close Regional_aerosols Module Organic_ca Title: Organic Carbon Description: Organic carbon emissions module Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Oct 1, 1994 3:15 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 232,160 Nodesize: 44,28 Diagstate: 1,322,47,445,344,1 Chance Co2_land_use Title: LandUse CO2 Units: GT/year Description: See "Initial Landuse CO2" for description. Definition: Init_co2_ne/1000 Nodelocation: 360,32 Nodesize: 44,16 Windstate: 1,233,82 Valuestate: 1,78,160,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -13109,-19664,1 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Init_co2_ne Title: Initial Landuse CO2 Units: Tons C (PgC) Description: From IPCC and cases presented by Andrasko et al in Global~~ Biomass Burning (1991), where the different cases shown on page 452 ~~ are the bounding cases, and the max carbon tax effect is seen to be t~~ he difference between the "combined sensitivity" and the reference ca~~ se, the effects starting in the year 2000. The growth of deforestatio~~ n is tempered and then reversed by the lack of virgin land.~ ~ 1975 to 1990 data are from the IPCC emissions database.~ Dynamic(~ ((landuse_unc*0.2G+1.2G)+(scen_fill)), ~ ((landuse_unc*0.2G+1.3G)+(scen_fill)), ~ ((landuse_unc*0.2G+1.5G)+(scen_fill)), ~ ((landuse_unc*0.2G+1.6G)+(scen_fill)),~ (If (Time<2000) Then (landuse_unc*0.9G+0.8G) Else (If (Time<2010) The~~ n ((-0.3G+scen_fill)+(landuse_unc*1.15G+0.75G)) Else (If (Time<2020) ~~ Then ~ ((-0.3G+scen_fill)+(landuse_unc*1.5G+0.7G)) Else (If (Time<2040) Then~~ ~ ((-0.3G+scen_fill)+(landuse_unc*1.6G+0.6G)) Else (If (Time<2060) Then~~ ~ ((-0.2G+scen_fill)+(landuse_unc*1.8G+0.4G)) Else (If (Time<2080) Then~~ ((-0.15G+scen_fill)+(landuse_unc*1.2G+0.3G)) Else ((-0.1G+scen_fill)~~ +(landuse_unc*1.1G+0.2G))))))))) Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then A1_landuse_emissions ~~ Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then A2_landuse_emissions Else (~~ If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') Then B1_landuse_emissions Else (If (Ch~~ oose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then B2_landuse_emissions Else 0)))) Nodelocation: 216,32 Nodesize: 52,16 Windstate: 1,81,47 Valuestate: 1,5,41,630,437,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -13109,-19664,1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-2000~ Ymaximum:2000~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Landuse_unc Title: Landuse CO2 Uncertainty Definition: Triangular(0, 0.5, 1) Nodelocation: 96,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Nodecolor: -13109,-19664,1 Chance A2_landuse_emissions Title: A2 Global Landuse Emissions Definition: Table(Time)(~ 1200,1200,1200,1200,1200,1000,1100,1100,1200,1300,1300,1300,1200,1100~~ ,1000,850,750,650,550,550,550,600,675,750,850,800) Nodelocation: 216,88 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,72,82,420,475,0,MIDM Module Old_landuse_model Title: OLD Landuse Model Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Wed, Jul 29, 1998 8:45 AM Nodelocation: 224,256 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,411,244,460,274,17 Chance Total_oc Title: Total OC emissions Units: Tg Definition: dynamic((Total_biom+Total_defo+Total_sava),(Total_biom+Tot~~ al_defo+Total_sava)) Nodelocation: 288,128 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,116,97,416,303,0,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Oc_w_bc Title: Tot OC emis, BC corrected Units: Tg OC (eq) Definition: dynamic(~ (Total_biom*(1-(0.16*Unc_BC_OC)))+~ (Total_defo*(1-(0.12*Unc_BC_OC)))+~ (Total_sava*(1-(0.20*Unc_BC_OC))),~ (Total_biom*(1-(0.16*Unc_BC_OC)))+~ (Total_defo*(1-(0.12*Unc_BC_OC)))+~ (Total_sava*(1-(0.20*Unc_BC_OC)))~ ) Nodelocation: 288,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,305,330,488,296,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance A975_oc Title: 1975 OC Definition: dynamic( Total_oc, A975_oc[time-1] ) Nodelocation: 176,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,179,55 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,0,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Biomass_ch4_growth Title: Biomass Methane Multiplier Description: This is what converts the increased biomass burning to me~~ thame emissions. See BIOMASS for more description. Definition: dynamic(Total_oc/ A975_oc,Total_oc/ A975_oc) Nodelocation: 288,192 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Unc_bc_oc Title: Uncertainty in BC Correction factor for OC Emissions Definition: Normal(1, 0.2) Nodelocation: 192,40 Nodesize: 44,28 Close Old_landuse_model Module Biomass_bu Title: Biomass burning Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Oct 2, 1994 1:31 PM Nodelocation: 64,192 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,143,42,467,401,1 Chance Oecd_bioma Title: OECD biomass Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial is 4.8 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,1),(If (Slice(Dynamic_~~ oc,Regions_12,1)>(10*Slice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,1))) Then (10*Sl~~ ice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,1)) Else Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,1)~~ )) Nodelocation: 224,56 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,275,42 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Cis___cmea Title: CIS & CMEA biomass Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial is 2.5 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,4),(If (Slice(Dynamic_~~ oc,Regions_12,4)>(10*Slice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,4))) Then (10*Sl~~ ice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,4)) Else Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,4)~~ )) Nodelocation: 224,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,305,163 Chance China___cp Title: China & CP Asia biomass Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial is 10 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,9),(If (Slice(Dynamic_~~ oc,Regions_12,9)>(10*Slice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,9))) Then (10*Sl~~ ice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,9)) Else Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,9)~~ )) Nodelocation: 224,136 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,263,251 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Mid_east_b Title: Mid East biomass Units: Tg/OC/yr Description: Initial is 0.8 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,6),(If (Slice(Dynamic_~~ oc,Regions_12,6)>(10*Slice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,6))) Then (10*Sl~~ ice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,6)) Else Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,6)~~ )) Nodelocation: 224,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,212,271 Valuestate: 1,248,258,416,303,1,MIDM Chance Africa_bio Title: Africa biomass Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial is 3.7 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,7),(If (Slice(Dynamic_~~ oc,Regions_12,7)>(10*Slice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,7))) Then (10*Sl~~ ice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,7)) Else Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,7)~~ )) Nodelocation: 224,216 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,320,185 Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,1,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Latin_amer Title: Latin America biomass Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial is 3.4 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,2),(If (Slice(Dynamic_~~ oc,Regions_12,2)>(10*Slice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,2))) Then (10*Sl~~ ice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,2)) Else Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,2)~~ )) Nodelocation: 224,256 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,265,197 Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,1,CONF Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Se_asia_bi Title: SE Asia biomass Units: Tg OC/yr Description: The initial biomass burning for Southeast Asia~ The initial is 5.9 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,8),(If (Slice(Dynamic_~~ oc,Regions_12,8)>(10*Slice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,8))) Then (10*Sl~~ ice(Initial_bio_oc,Regions_12,8)) Else Slice(Dynamic_oc,Regions_12,8)~~ )) Nodelocation: 224,296 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,208,65 Valuestate: 1,-6,73,632,193,0,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Total_biom Title: Total biomass Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Total emissions of OC from the burning of biomass for fue~~ l. This grows more uncertain through time. The implementation of a ca~~ rbon tax gives rise to an increase in the use of biomass as a fuel, p~~ roportional to the size of the carbon tax. Definition: Dynamic(((((((Oecd_bioma+Cis___cmea)+China___cp)+Mid_east_~~ b)+Africa_bio)+Latin_amer)+Se_asia_bi),((((((Oecd_bioma+Cis___cmea)+C~~ hina___cp)+Mid_east_b)+Africa_bio)+Latin_amer)+Se_asia_bi)) Nodelocation: 344,280 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,240,48 Valuestate: 1,141,58,652,393,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:0~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Bio_uncer Title: Biomass uncertainty Description: This is the uncertainty of the biomass burning emissions ~~ of OC. ~ The uncertainty grows thru time. Definition: Dynamic((If (Unbounded_3<0) Then (0*Intervention) Else (Un~~ bounded_3+Scen_fill)),(If (Unbounded_3<0) Then Scen_fill Else (Unboun~~ ded_3+Scen_fill))) Nodelocation: 56,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,194,109,461,491,1,STAT Graphsetup: Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:3~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Un_biomass Title: UN Biomass Description: This is the biomass burning by UN regions Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ (0.6*Oecd_bioma),Latin_amer,(0.3*Oecd_bioma),(0.7*Cis___cmea),(0.3*Ci~~ s___cmea),Mid_east_b,Africa_bio,(0.8*Se_asia_bi),China___cp,(0.2*Se_a~~ sia_bi),(0.05*Oecd_bioma),(0.05*Oecd_bioma)) Nodelocation: 384,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,242,188 Defnstate: 1,279,296,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,153,96,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Initial_bio_oc Title: Initial Biomass Emissions Units: Tg OC/yr Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 3.3,2,1,1.3,0.9,0.5,2,2.9,2.9,0.2,0.2,0.2) Nodelocation: 56,296 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Dynamic_oc Title: Dynamic OC Emissions Description: Dynamic((Bio_uncer*(Initial_bio_oc+(((1.9*(10^-6))*Pop_19~~ 75)*(1/Gdp_per_capita_1975)))),(Bio_uncer*(Initial_bio_oc+(((1.9*(10^~~ -6))*Pop_1980)*(1/Gdp_per_capita_1980)))),(Bio_uncer*(Initial_bio_oc+~~ (((1.9*(10^-6))*Pop_1985)*(1/Gdp_per_capita_1985)))),(If (Time<2000) ~~ Then (Bio_uncer*(Initial_bio_oc+(((1.9*(10^-6))*Regional_populations[~~ Time-1])*(1/Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1])))) Else (Bio_uncer*(Initial_bio~~ _oc+(((1.9*(10^-6))*Regional_populations[Time-1])*((1+(Carbon_tax[Tim~~ e-1]/500))/Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1])))))) Definition: Bio_uncer*(Initial_bio_oc) Nodelocation: 56,208 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,40,50 Valuestate: 1,63,43,655,422,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Unbounded_3 Title: Unbounded Biomass Uncertainty Definition: Dynamic(Evaluate_p(Unc_bb_oc,Uf_aer_m),Evaluate_p(Unc_bb_o~~ c,Uf_aer_m)) Nodelocation: 56,88 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,1,MIDM Chance Unc_bb_oc Title: Unbounded Uncertainty in Emissions Definition: Dynamic(~ Uniform( .6, 1.4 ),~ Ifonly time<2000 then~ Uniform( .6, 1.4 ) ~ else 1+Uniform (-0.5*(exp((time-2000)/100)), 0.5*exp((time-2000)/100)~~ )) Nodelocation: 56,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,399,267,416,303,1,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Close Biomass_bu Module Deforestat Title: Deforestation Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Oct 2, 1994 1:31 PM Nodelocation: 64,240 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,103,48,409,329,1 Chance Oecd_deforest Title: OECD deforestation Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial value of 1.6TgOC/yr.~ For OECD (including Australia), deforestation includes antropogenical~~ ly- started forest fires. A portion (25%, mostly Australia) follows t~~ he global trend of deforestation, while others (forest fires in the U~~ .S., for example) remain constant, growing more uncertain thru time.~ Note: a carbon tax has the effect of both increasing biomass burning ~~ as a fuel and describing a policy whereby people set forests aside as~~ pools for carbon Definition: Dynamic(((Defor_uncer*1.2)+((((0.25*0.117)*Co2_land_use)*1~~ G)/80M)),((Defor_uncer*1.2)+((((0.25*0.117)*Co2_land_use)*1G)/80M)))~~ Nodelocation: 168,40 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,303,101 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Cis_deforest Title: CIS & CMEA deforestation Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial value is 0.8, growing more uncertain thru time. Definition: Dynamic(~ Defor_uncer*0.8,~ Defor_uncer*0.8) Nodelocation: 168,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,364,341 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance China_deforest Title: China & CP Asia deforestation Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial value is 1.8. This follows the world trend of def~~ orestation. Definition: Dynamic((((0.131*Co2_land_use)*1G)/80M),(((0.131*Co2_land_~~ use)*1G)/80M)) Nodelocation: 168,120 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Mid_deforest Title: Mid East deforestation Units: Tg/OC/yr Description: This small value grows more uncertain thru time. Definition: Dynamic(~ Defor_uncer*0.1,~ Defor_uncer*0.1) Nodelocation: 168,160 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,CONF Chance Africa_deforest Title: Africa deforestation Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial value is 3.5. This value follows the global trend~~ for deforestation. Definition: Dynamic((((0.255*Co2_land_use)*1G)/80M),(((0.255*Co2_land_~~ use)*1G)/80M)) Nodelocation: 168,200 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,204,42 Valuestate: 1,49,61,625,437,1,CONF Chance La_deforest Title: Latin America deforestation Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial value is 5.3. This follows the global trend for d~~ eforestation. Definition: Dynamic((((0.387*Co2_land_use)*1G)/80M),(((0.387*Co2_land_~~ use)*1G)/80M)) Nodelocation: 168,240 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,224,243 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Se_deforest Title: SE Asia deforestation Units: Tg OC/yr Description: The initial emissions from forest burning for Southeast A~~ sia~ The initial value is 0.6~ This follows the global trend for deforestation. Definition: Dynamic((((0.044*Co2_land_use)*1G)/80M),(((0.044*Co2_land_~~ use)*1G)/80M)) Nodelocation: 168,280 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,182,85 Chance Total_defo Title: Total deforestation Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Total deforestation emissions of organic carbon.~ See initial land use CO2 and regions for description. Definition: dynamic(~ ((((((Oecd_deforest+Cis_deforest)+China_deforest)+Mid_deforest)+Afric~~ a_deforest)+La_deforest)+Se_deforest),~ ((((((Oecd_deforest+Cis_deforest)+China_deforest)+Mid_deforest)+Afric~~ a_deforest)+La_deforest)+Se_deforest)) Nodelocation: 312,176 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,202,78 Valuestate: 1,209,104,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Defor_uncer Title: Deforestation uncertainty Description: This is the uncertainty of the deforestation emissions of~~ OC that are not tied to land use change. ~ The uncertainty grows thru time. Definition: Dynamic(Ifonly Deforestat_u < 0 then 0 else Deforestat_u, ~~ Ifonly Deforestat_u < 0 then 0 else Deforestat_u) Nodelocation: 64,152 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,152,162,618,355,1,STAT Graphsetup: Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:3~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Deforestat_u Title: Deforestation Uncertainty Definition: Dynamic(Evaluate_p(Deforestat1,Uf_aer_m),Evaluate_p(Defore~~ stat1,Uf_aer_m)) Nodelocation: 64,88 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,1,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Deforestat1 Title: Deforestation Uncertainty Definition: Dynamic((Ifonly (Time<2000) Then Uniform(0.7,1.3) Else (1+~~ Uniform((-0.3*Exp(((Time-2000)/100))),(0.3*Exp(((Time-2000)/100))))))~~ ,(Ifonly (Time<2000) Then Uniform(0.7,1.3) Else (1+Uniform((-0.3*Exp(~~ ((Time-2000)/100))),(0.3*Exp(((Time-2000)/100))))))) Nodelocation: 64,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,0,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Close Deforestat Module Savanah_bu Title: Savanah burning Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Oct 2, 1994 1:31 PM Nodelocation: 64,288 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,153,57,456,320,1 Chance Total_sava Title: Total savanah burning Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Savanna burning does not contribute net CO2 to the atmosp~~ here. However, it does contribute smoke aerosols. Recently, it has be~~ en thought that the rate of savanna burning is significantly greater ~~ than deforestation. ~ As modeled here, there is a drop in 2050 when open forests are expect~~ ed to have been cleared (Andrasko et al, 1991). The effect of a carbo~~ n tax are unknown and thus not modeled. For example, more people may ~~ lead to more burning to maintain more rangeland, or conversely to mor~~ e land put into permenant ag. Definition: dynamic(~ ((((((Oecd_savan+Cis_savan)+China_savan)+Mid_savan)+Africa_savan)+La_~~ savan)+Se_savan),~ ((((((Oecd_savan+Cis_savan)+China_savan)+Mid_savan)+Africa_savan)+La_~~ savan)+Se_savan)) Nodelocation: 368,168 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,1,MIDM Chance Bounded_sa Title: Bounded Savanna uncertainty Description: This is the uncertainty of the savanna burning emissions ~~ of OC. ~ The uncertainty grows thru time. Different regions have their own rel~~ ative uncertainty in the present modeled throughout the simulation as~~ a uniform distribution. Definition: Dynamic((Ifonly (Switched_u<0) Then 0 Else Switched_u),(If~~ only (Switched_u<0) Then 0 Else Switched_u)) Nodelocation: 88,208 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,48,84,621,388,0,STAT Graphsetup: Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:3~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Module Oecd Title: OECD Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Dec 16, 1994 23:05 Nodelocation: 256,40 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,104,114,416,243,1 Chance Oecd_savan Title: OECD savannah burning Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Includes Australia~ Initial value is 3.6 Definition: Dynamic((Bounded_sa*Oecd_savan1),(Ifonly (Time<2000) Then ~~ (Bounded_sa*Oecd_savan1) Else (Ifonly (Time<2050) Then (Bounded_sa*Oe~~ cd_savan2) Else (Bounded_sa*Oecd_savan3)))) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,160,170 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Oecd_savan1 Title: OECD Savanah Uncertainty 1 Definition: uniform (3.3,3.9) Nodelocation: 160,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Oecd_savan2 Title: OECD Savanah Uncertainty 2 Definition: uniform (3.0,3.6) Nodelocation: 160,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Oecd_savan3 Title: OECD Savanah Uncertainty 3 Definition: uniform (2,2.8) Nodelocation: 160,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Oecd Module Ee___fsu Title: EE & FSU Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Dec 16, 1994 23:05 Nodelocation: 256,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Cis_savan Title: CIS & CMEA savannah burning Units: Tg OC/yr Definition: dynamic(0,0) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,24 Close Ee___fsu Module China___se Title: China & SE Asia Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Dec 16, 1994 23:05 Nodelocation: 256,120 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance China_savan Title: China & CP Asia savannah burning Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial value is 0.2 Definition: Dynamic((Bounded_sa*China_sava1),(Ifonly (Time<2050) Then ~~ (Bounded_sa*China_sava1) Else (Bounded_sa*China_sava2))) Nodelocation: 160,72 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,1,MIDM Chance China_sava1 Title: China Savanah Uncertainty 1 Definition: uniform (0.1,0.3) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance China_sava2 Title: China Savanah Uncertainty 2 Definition: uniform(0,0.2) Nodelocation: 48,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Close China___se Module Mid_east Title: Mid East Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Dec 16, 1994 23:05 Nodelocation: 256,160 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Mid_savan Title: Mid East savannah burning Units: Tg/OC/yr Definition: dynamic(0,0) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,24 Close Mid_east Module Africa Title: Africa Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Dec 16, 1994 23:05 Nodelocation: 256,200 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,184,194,354,170,1 Chance Africa_savan Title: Africa savannah burning Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial value is 21.8 Definition: Dynamic((Bounded_sa*Af_savanah1),(Ifonly (Time<2050) Then ~~ (Bounded_sa*Af_savanah1) Else (Bounded_sa*Af_savanah2))) Nodelocation: 264,72 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,98,77 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Af_savanah1 Title: Af Savanah Uncertainty 1 Definition: uniform (20.8,22.8) Nodelocation: 96,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Af_savanah2 Title: Af Savanah Uncertainty 2 Definition: uniform (18.8,20.8) Nodelocation: 96,128 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Africa Module L_america Title: L America Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Dec 16, 1994 23:05 Nodelocation: 256,240 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance La_savan Title: Latin America savannah burning Units: Tg OC/yr Description: Initial value is 6.9 Definition: Dynamic((Bounded_sa*La_savanah1),(Ifonly (Time<2000) Then ~~ (Bounded_sa*La_savanah1) Else (Ifonly (Time<2020) Then (Bounded_sa*La~~ _savanah2) Else (Ifonly (Time<2050) Then (Bounded_sa*La_savanah3) Els~~ e (Bounded_sa*La_savanah4))))) Nodelocation: 296,40 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,232,242 Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance La_savanah1 Title: LA Savanah Uncertainty 1 Definition: uniform (6.5,7.3) Nodelocation: 160,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance La_savanah2 Title: LA Savanah Uncertainty 2 Definition: uniform (6.8,7.8) Nodelocation: 160,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance La_savanah3 Title: LA Savanah Uncertainty 3 Definition: uniform (6.4,7) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance La_savanah4 Title: LA Savanah Uncertainty 4 Definition: uniform (6,6.6) Nodelocation: 48,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Close L_america Module Se_asia Title: SE Asia Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Dec 16, 1994 23:05 Nodelocation: 256,280 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Se_savan Title: SE Asia savannah burning Units: Tg OC/yr Description: The initial emissions from savanah burning for Southeast ~~ Asia~ Initial value is 0.5 Definition: Dynamic((Bounded_sa*Sea_savana1),(Ifonly (Time<2050) Then ~~ (Bounded_sa*Sea_savana1) Else (Bounded_sa*Sea_savana2))) Nodelocation: 160,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,266,274 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Sea_savana1 Title: SEA Savanahs Uncertainty 1 Definition: uniform (0.2,0.8) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Sea_savana2 Title: SEA Savanahs Uncertainty 2 Definition: uniform (0.2,0.8) Nodelocation: 48,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Se_asia Chance Savanah_bu1 Title: Savanah Burning Amplitude Definition: dynamic((exp((time-2000)/100)), (exp((time-2000)/100))) Nodelocation: 48,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,143,142,558,326,1,MIDM Chance Savanah_un1 Title: Savanah Uncertainty Distribution Definition: uniform(0,1) Nodelocation: 152,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Chance Switched_u Title: Switched Uncertainty in Savahan Burning Definition: Dynamic(Evaluate_p(Uncertain4,Uf_aer_m),Evaluate_p(Uncerta~~ in4,Uf_aer_m)) Nodelocation: 88,152 Nodesize: 44,28 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,1,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Chance Uncertain4 Title: Uncertain in Savanah Burning Definition: Dynamic((If (Time<2000) Then Uniform(0.6,1.4) Else ((1+((S~~ avanah_un1*0.8)*Savanah_bu1))-(0.4*Savanah_bu1))),(If (Time<2000) The~~ n Uniform(0.6,1.4) Else ((1+((Savanah_un1*0.8)*Savanah_bu1))-(0.4*Sav~~ anah_bu1)))) Nodelocation: 88,96 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,1,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Close Savanah_bu Chance B1_landuse_emissions Title: B1 Global Landuse Emissions Definition: Table(Time)(~ 1200,1200,1200,1200,1100,1000,1050,1100,1200,1300,1100,900,650,550,42~~ 5,300,100,-100,-300,-500,-700,-900,-1050,-1200,-1300,-1400) Nodelocation: 128,136 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,59,81,338,488,0,MIDM Chance A1_landuse_emissions Title: A1 Global Landuse Emissions Definition: Table(Time)(~ 1200,1200,1200,1300,1200,1000,1100,1250,1400,1500,1400,1300,1200,900,~~ 600,400,300,150,0,-200,-300,-400,-450,-475,-500,-500) Nodelocation: 128,88 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,72,82,287,487,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,56,66,534,411,1,MIDM Chance B2_landuse_emissions Title: B2 Global Landuse Emissions Definition: Table(Time)(~ 1200,1200,1250,1300,1200,1150,1100,1200,1300,1400,1250,1100,950,750,5~~ 50,350,200,100,0,-150,-300,-400,-325,-250,-200,-150) Nodelocation: 224,136 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,59,81,338,488,0,MIDM Close Organic_ca Module Black_carbon_aerosol Title: Black Carbon Aerosols Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Wed, Aug 12, 1998 5:54 PM Nodelocation: 136,32 Nodesize: 64,16 Diagstate: 1,240,248,384,253,17 Chance Bc_unc Title: BC Uncertainty Description: This is the undertainty in the BC ratio. Definition: scen_fill+evaluate_p(Normal(1,0.2), Uf_aer_m) Nodelocation: 48,160 Nodesize: 44,16 Windstate: 1,94,88 Chance Dynamic_bc Title: Dynamic Black Carbon Emissions Definition: Dynamic((If ((((Gdp_per_capita_1975*(-2.7*(10^-5)))+0.816)~~ *Bc_unc)<0) Then 0 Else (((Gdp_per_capita_1975*(-2.7*(10^-5)))+0.816)~~ *Bc_unc)),(If ((((Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1]*(-2.7*(10^-5)))+0.816)*Bc_~~ unc)<0) Then 0 Else (((Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1]*(-2.7*(10^-5)))+0.816~~ )*Bc_unc))) Nodelocation: 176,176 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,105,97,580,485,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Unc_bc_sav Title: BC Uncertaint for Savanahs Definition: (1-(0.20*Bc_unc)) Nodelocation: 176,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Unc_bc_for Title: BC Uncertainty for Forests Definition: (1-(0.12*Bc_unc)) Nodelocation: 176,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Unc_bc_bio Title: BC Uncertainty for Biomass Definition: (1-(0.16*Bc_unc)) Nodelocation: 176,120 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Unbounded_black_carb Title: Unbounded Black Carbon emissions Units: TgC/y Definition: (0.86-2.72E-5*Regional__gdp_pc)*Reg_s Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,72,82,575,475,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Bounded_bc Title: Bounded BC Units: TgC/y Definition: if Unbounded_black_carb > 0 then Unbounded_black_carb else~~ 0 Nodelocation: 48,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,579,413,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close Black_carbon_aerosol Close Emissions_ Objective C_fuels Title: Fuel Carbon Units: GT/y Description: The carbon intensities are in kg/GJ. The energy is in Ex~~ a Joules, hence the unit of carbon emissions is GT.~ Dynamic(sum(Q_fuels*Carbon_content, fuels), sum(Q_fuels*Carbon_conten~~ t, fuels)) Definition: Dynamic(sum(UN_carbon, regions_12), sum(UN_carbon, regions~~ _12)) Nodelocation: 280,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,104,114 Valuestate: 1,41,39,668,505,1,SAMP Nodecolor: -16385,-16385,-16385 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:4~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:200~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:200~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0 Objective S_fuels Title: Fuel Sulfur Units: TgS/y Definition: Dynamic(Sum(Reg_s,Regions_12),Sum(Reg_s,Regions_12)) Nodelocation: 280,232 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,112,235 Valuestate: 1,86,75,647,517,1,SAMP Nodecolor: -3278,-3278,-3278 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:80K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:50~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 8 Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Numberformat: 1,F,4,2,0,0 Objective Tpe Title: Total Primary Energy Units: EJ/year Description: This is the total primary energy used globally per year i~~ n Exa Joules. Definition: Dynamic(Sum(Q_fuels,Fuels),Sum(Q_fuels,Fuels)) Nodelocation: 112,232 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,96,44,562,526,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Total_primary_energy, Alias Total_primary_energ1, Formnode~~ Total_primary_energ3 Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:6000~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Emissions Module Atmospheric_composi1 Title: Atmospheric Composition & Climate Description: In the submodel a number of calculations are made. These~~ calculations are:~ 1.The emissions of the various RITS are taken from the emissions subm~~ odule integrated over 25 years and converted from tons to ppbv so tha~~ t they can increment the existing atmospheric budget for RITS. ~ 2. Should the option of afforestation be exercised, the carbon emissi~~ ons into the atmosphere are decremented by 2gt/year.~ 3. The atmospheric budget of RITS is decremented by the expected deca~~ y over 25 years.~ 4. The new concentration of RITS is calculated.~ 5. The DRF due to the change of atmospheric RITS since pre-industrial~~ period is calculated.~ 6. The DRF is modified if the stratospheric sulfur option has been a~~ ctivated.~ 7. The appropriate level of uncertainty in climate change is applied ~~ to DRF to arrive at a measure of climate change. This measure is us~~ ed in the impacts model to estimate the losses due to changed climate~~ .~ 8. As a paliative to the some viewers of the model a simple calculati~~ on for globally averaged temperature is also calculated. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Nov 1, 1991 9:57 AM Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 328,312,0 Nodesize: 60,36 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Diagstate: 1,347,278,394,291,1 Nodecolor: 65535,65532,19661 Diagramcolor: 65535,65532,19661 Fontstyle: Arial, 12 Objective Regional__t Title: Regional ±T Units: °C Description: Regional change in temperature. Definition: Dynamic(Regional_t,Regional_t) Nodelocation: 328,200 Nodesize: 36,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,126,145 Valuestate: 1,142,168,611,524,0,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:4~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:0~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:8~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:5~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Module Ghg_impact Title: GHG~ Models Description: N2O and CH4 concentratiosn are calculated here. Author: EPP Date: Fri, Apr 24, 1992 6:42 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 208,48 Nodesize: 56,28 Diagstate: 1,145,87,417,144,1 Nodecolor: -13107,-1,-26215 Module Caron_cycl1 Title: Simple~ Methane~ Model Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Wed, Feb 16, 1994 11:05 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 72,48 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,81,118,576,247,1 Variable S1 Title: Source Definition: dynamic(Net_CH4,net_CH4) Nodelocation: 208,48 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,1,STAT Variable A Title: alpha Definition: 1-(1/tau_ch4) Nodelocation: 136,120 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance B Title: beta Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 184,184 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable C1 Title: Concentration Definition: Dynamic((Atmospheric_stock_in+Scen_fill),((((A^5)*C1[Time-~~ 1])+((B*S1)*(((1-(A^5))/(1-A))-((A/5)*(((1-(6*(A^5)))+(5*(A^6)))/(1-(~~ A^2)))))))+(((B*S1[Time-1])*(A/5))*(((1-(6*(A^5)))+(5*(A^6)))/(1-(A^2~~ )))))) Nodelocation: 288,120 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,200,208,545,305,1,CONF Reformval: [Time,Probindex] Variable Atmospheric_stock_in Title: Atmospheric Stock in 1975 Definition: 4150M Nodelocation: 344,48 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,120,129,416,303,0,MIDM Objective A_ch4 Title: CH4 in PPBV Definition: dynamic(ifonly C1/2.84M < 800 then 800 else C1/2.84M, ~ ifonly C1/2.84M < 800 then 800 else C1/2.84M) Nodelocation: 416,120 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,46,44,782,546,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Al8, Alias Ch4_in_ppbv Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:1000~ Ymaximum:3000~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Tau_ch4 Title: Methane adjustment timescale Units: Years Definition: dynamic(normal(12.2, 3), normal(12.2, 3)) Nodelocation: 72,56 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,STAT Close Caron_cycl1 Module Caron_cycl2 Title: Simple~ N2O~ Model Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Wed, Feb 16, 1994 11:05 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 200,48 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,82,152,439,223,1 Chance N2o_tau Title: N2O lifetime Units: Years Description: The lifetime for N2O is from the IPCC 1995 report. They o~~ ffer no uncertainty in its value! Definition: 120 Nodelocation: 56,40 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,67,168 Reference: IPCC Science 1995 Table 2.2 Variable Decay5yrs Title: RITS fract ~ remaining~ after 5 yrs Description: {The lifetime of RITs {tau} is defined as being A = A0 . ~~ exp{-t/tau}.~ We have used lifeTimes New Roman of (15-30), 10, 150, for the first ~~ three RITs. In order to calculate the decay over 5 years we define t~~ his variable to be exp-{5/tau}.}~ This is the amount of N2O left after 5 years. Definition: Exp((-5/N2o_tau)) Nodelocation: 88,144 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,270,396 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,0,MIDM Constant Conversion_t Title: Conversion~ to PPBv Description: This is a simple conversion table to take tons of emissio~~ n to ppbv. Note that in the case of aerosols the unit of interest is ~~ g/m^2.~ was array(species,[4.695*10^(-7),12.91*10^(-7),4.695*10^(-7),1*10^(-7~~ ),2*10^(-7),1*10^(-7),2*10^(-15)]) Definition: (4.695*(10^-7)) Nodelocation: 192,48 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,184,194,416,303,0,MIDM Variable N2o_in_ppb Title: N2O in PPBV Units: ppbv Description: Hopefully, this is self-explanatory Definition: Dynamic(N2o_in_1975, ((285+((Net_n2o*Conversion_t)*(N2o_ta~~ u-(N2o_tau/Exp((5/N2o_tau))))))+((N2o_in_ppb[Time-1]-275)*Decay5yrs))~~ ) Nodelocation: 208,144 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,294,37 Valuestate: 1,294,128,614,589,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1000~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective A_n2o Title: N2O in PPBV Definition: dynamic(if N2o_in_ppb < 275 then 275 else N2o_in_ppb, if N~~ 2o_in_ppb < 275 then 275 else N2o_in_ppb) Nodelocation: 344,144 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,121,143,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias N2o_in_ppbv Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance N2o_in_1975 Title: N2O in 1975 Definition: ((300.7*Evaluate_p(Normal(1,0.01), uf_ghg))+(scen_fill)) Nodelocation: 312,48 Nodesize: 52,20 Close Caron_cycl2 Module Carbon_cyc Title: Carbon Cycle ~ Model Description: Here is the MR_H model. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, 17 Feb, 1994 8:04 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 328,48 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,239,197,499,272,17 Objective A_co2 Title: Atmospheric CO2 Units: ppbv Description: Hopefully, this is self explanatory Definition: (1000*Atmospheric_co2_con1) Nodelocation: 416,176,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,40,50 Valuestate: 1,62,64,632,434,0,MEAN Aliases: Alias Al7 Nodecolor: -13108,-13108,-13108 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:0~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:300K~ Ymaximum:600K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Index I5 Title: term index Definition: ['first term','second term','third term','fourth term','fi~~ fth term'] Nodelocation: 72,264,0 Nodesize: 48,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['first term','second term','third term','~~ fourth term','fifth term']} Chance A5 Title: Alpha Description: Airborn fraction after one year. Definition: Table(I5)(~ 0.999,(1-(1/313.8)),(1-(1/79.8)),(1-(1/18.8)),(1-(1/1.2))) Nodelocation: 72,152,0 Nodesize: 48,20 Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,0,MIDM Numberformat: 1,F,4,3,0,0 Chance B5 Title: Beta Definition: Table(I5)(~ 0.131,0.201,0.323,0.206,0.088) Nodelocation: 72,200,0 Nodesize: 48,20 Valuestate: 1,423,256,416,303,0,MIDM Numberformat: 1,F,4,3,0,0 Variable Carbon_cyc2 Title: Carbon Cycle Ocean Dynamics Description: 5 year convolution integral of the 1 year MR-H model. Definition: Dynamic(((B5*Carbon_flux_to_atmos)*(((1-(A5^5))/(1-A5))-((~~ A5/5)*(((1-(6*(A5^5)))+(5*(A5^6)))/((1-A5)^2))))),((((B5*Carbon_flux_~~ to_atmos)*(((1-(A5^5))/(1-A5))-((A5/5)*(((1-(6*(A5^5)))+(5*(A5^6)))/(~~ (1-A5)^2)))))+(((B5*Carbon_flux_to_atmos[Time-1])/5)*(A5*(((1-(6*(A5^~~ 5)))+(5*(A5^6)))/((1-A5)^2)))))+(Carbon_cyc2[Time-1]*(A5^5)))) Nodelocation: 184,176,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,321,45 Valuestate: 1,78,37,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,I5] Objective Atmospheric_co2_con1 Title: Atmospheric CO2 Conc. Units: ppm Definition: Dynamic((((Pre_1/2.13))+(scen_fill)),((((Pre_1+Sum(Carbon_~~ cyc2,I5))/2.13))+(scen_fill))) Nodelocation: 304,176,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,136,146 Valuestate: 1,175,71,601,521,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Atmospheric_co2_con2, Alias Atmospheric_co2_conc, Formnode~~ Atmospheric_co2_con3 Nodecolor: -13108,-13108,-13108 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:15~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:350~ Ymaximum:700~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:5~ Yintervals:7~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.01,0.1,0.5,0.9,0.99]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 6 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,F,4,0,0,0 Module Pre_existi2 Title: Pre Existing CO2 Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Mar 4, 1994 10:36 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 304,104,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,114,233,315,203,1 Chance Pre_1 Title: Pre 1975 Units: GT Carbon Description: This parameter that has been calculated outside the model~~ and used here, because of their dependance on emissions before 1975,~~ the first year of the model. Definition: dynamic(~ Un_init_co2*Pre_75_125, Un_init_co2*Pre_75_125) Nodelocation: 192,72 Nodesize: 36,16 Valuestate: 2,104,114,535,450,1,MIDM Chance Pre_75_125 Title: pre 1975 125 year Units: GT Carbon Definition: Array(Time,[~ 7.0356244e+02 , 6.9583923e+02, 6.9018404e+02, 6.8544449e+02, ~ 6.8137359e+02 , 6.7782892e+02, 6.7470518e+02 , 6.7192202e+02, ~ 6.6941770e+02, 6.6714449e+02, 6.6506524e+02 , 6.6315084e+02, ~ 6.6137827e+02 , 6.5972915e+02 , 6.5818864e+02 , 6.5674465e+02 , ~ 6.5538718e+02, 6.5410789e+02, 6.5289969e+02, 6.5175655e+02, ~ 6.5067321e+02 , 6.4964508e+02, 6.4866809e+02, 6.4773861e+02, ~ 6.4685340e+02, 6.4600948e+02 ])~ ~ ~ Nodelocation: 80,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,97,82 Valuestate: 2,232,242,416,303,1,MIDM Chance Un_init_co2 Title: Uncertainty in CO2 Definition: evaluate_p(Normal(1,0.002), uf_ghg) Nodelocation: 80,112 Nodesize: 52,20 Close Pre_existi2 Variable Carbon_flux_to_atmos Title: Carbon Flux to Atmosphere Units: pGC/Yr Definition: Dynamic(Global_carbon_emissi,Global_carbon_emissi+Feedback~~ _c[time-1]) Nodelocation: 184,104,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Windstate: 1,102,90 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Feedback_c Title: Feedback from terrestrical Ecosystem Change Units: pGC/Yr. Definition: if time = 1975 then .5 else~ if~ Ecosyst_sw = 'Median feedback' then Median_change_in_car~ else~ if ~ Ecosyst_sw = 'Full feedback' then Global_carbon_flux~ else .5 Nodelocation: 184,32,1 Nodesize: 84,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,360,195 Valuestate: 1,328,338,468,396,1,SAMP Nodecolor: 5,-1,1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-2~ Ymaximum:2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Nodefont: Helvetica, 12 Reformval: [Time,Run] Close Carbon_cyc Close Ghg_impact Module Aerosol_mo Title: Aerosol~ Model Author: EPP Date: Fri, Apr 24, 1992 6:42 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 80,48 Nodesize: 56,28 Diagstate: 1,170,117,452,317,1 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Variable A6_region_sulfate_b Title: Areal~ Concentration~ of Sulfates ~ 6 Regions Units: g/m^2 Description: This is the areal conc. of sulfates for the 6 regions int~~ o which the reduced form model of aerosol climate forcing is divided.~~ Definition: Dynamic((((1M*((1M*96)/32))*Tau_so4)*~ (Lat_s_uncertainty/Regional_areas_6)),(((1M*((1M*96)/32))*Tau_so4)*(L~~ at_s_uncertainty/Regional_areas_6))) Nodelocation: 224,112 Nodesize: 52,32 Windstate: 1,282,380 Valuestate: 1,103,76,688,540,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Areal_concentration2 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Tau_so4 Title: Atmospheric Lifetime (SO4) Units: years Description: Lifetime of SO4, based on the 6 days of Charlson, correct~~ ed for stack height as a function of per capita income Definition: Evaluate_p((0.016*Normal(1,0.2)), UF_Aerosol) Nodelocation: 224,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,240,293 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,MIDM Variable Areal_concentration1 Title: Areal Concentration of OC~ 6 Regions Units: g/m^2 Description: This is the areal conc. of organic carbon by lat. bands (~~ corrected by bc) Definition: Dynamic(((Tau_oc1*(10^12))*(Lat_oc_uncertainty/Regional_a~~ reas_2)),((Tau_oc1*(10^12))*(Lat_oc_uncertainty/Regional_areas_2))) Nodelocation: 224,192 Nodesize: 52,32 Windstate: 1,224,255 Valuestate: 1,125,101,824,512,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1.1n~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:50~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Reformval: [Time,Latitudes] Chance Tau_oc1 Title: Atmospheric Lifetime OC Units: years Description: The lifetime of OC, based roughly on Penner's statement t~~ hat OC and SO4 have roughly the same lifetime, although emissions of ~~ smoke (being less homogeneous) are here assumed to have a shorter mea~~ n lifetime but a longer tail. Definition: Evaluate_p((0.014*Lognormal(1,2)), UF_Aerosol)~ ~ Nodelocation: 80,112 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Regional_areas_6 Title: 6 Region Areas~ Land & Sea Units: m^2 Description: Area of the globe covered by each of 6 regions simulated ~~ by Schlesinger et al (1997) in their study of differential impacts of~~ aerosols on climate change. Definition: Table(Regions_6)(~ 19.4619T,56.6427T,21.157T,58.5425T,99.1481T,254.952T) Nodelocation: 344,72 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,304,185,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,521,277,416,303,0,MIDM Index Aerosol_in1 Title: Aerosol Index Definition: ['Without Aerosols','With Aerosols'] Nodelocation: 88,216,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Constant Regional_areas_2 Title: 6 Region Areas (land) Units: m^2 Description: Area of the globe covered by each of 6 regions simulated ~~ by Schlesinger et al (1997) in their study of differential impacts of~~ aerosols on climate change. Definition: Table(Regions_6)(~ 11.35T,42.85T,13.93T,22.76T,36.67T,73.16T) Nodelocation: 352,160 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,359,283,416,303,0,MIDM Constant A6_region_areas_ Title: 6 Region Areas~ (land & sea) Units: m^2 Description: Area of each region being modeled. Definition: Table(Regions_6)(~ 5.7T,23.2T,18.15T,19.2T,25T,43T) Nodelocation: 352,216,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,271,219 Defnstate: 1,322,65,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,403,262,416,303,0,MIDM Close Aerosol_mo Objective Forcing Title: Forcing Units: W/m^2 Definition: Array(Aerosol_in1,[Lw_forcing,(Lw_forcing+Change_in_7)]) Nodelocation: 328,120 Nodesize: 36,20 Valuestate: 1,86,41,583,421,0,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1990~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:1.5~ Ymaximum:6.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:11~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Module Change_in_6 Title: Change in Long Wave Forcing Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, Nov 13, 1994 10:49 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 208,120 Nodesize: 52,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Diagstate: 1,91,125,422,273,1 Nodecolor: -1,24903,24903 Function Mn_overlap(M, N) Title: Methane ~ Nitrousoxide ~ Correction Description: This is a function that permits for a correction in radia~~ tive forcing due to CH4 and N2O. These ghgs have overlapping radiati~~ ve characteristics and their combined effect is less than the sum of ~~ their individual forcings. Definition: 0.47 * ln (1 + 2.01*10^-5 * (M*N)^0.75 + 5.31*10^-15 * M *~~ (M*N) ^ 1.52) Nodelocation: 216,200 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,40,64 Paramnames: M,N Objective Lw_forcing Title: Change in ~ LW radiative~ forcing Units: w/m^2 Description: This is the point at which the changes in concentration o~~ f various RITS.~ dynamic(Lw_sens*(Lw_co2+Lw_ch4+Lw_n2o+Lw_overlap), Lw_sens*(Lw_co2+Lw~~ _ch4+Lw_n2o+Lw_overlap)) Definition: dynamic(Lw_sens*(Lw_co2+Lw_ch4+Lw_n2o+Lw_overlap), Lw_sens~~ *(Lw_co2+Lw_ch4+Lw_n2o+Lw_overlap)) Nodelocation: 224,112 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,276,220 Valuestate: 1,118,49,552,537,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Change_in__lw_radiat Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,D,4,2,0,0 Chance Lw_co2 Title: LW CO2 Definition: Dynamic(6.3*Ln((A_co2/280K)), 6.3*Ln((A_co2/280K))) Nodelocation: 88,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,632,431,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Lw_ch4 Title: LW CH4 Definition: Dynamic(0.036*(Sqrt(A_ch4)-Sqrt(800)), 0.036*(Sqrt(A_ch4)-~~ Sqrt(800))) Nodelocation: 88,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,152,162,638,500,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Lw_n2o Title: LW N2O Definition: Dynamic(0.14*(Sqrt(A_n2o)-Sqrt(275)), 0.14*(Sqrt(A_n2o)-Sq~~ rt(275))) Nodelocation: 88,152 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,168,178,656,479,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Lw_overlap Title: LW Overlap Definition: Dynamic(~ -(Mn_overlap(A_ch4,285)-0.08971)~ -(Mn_overlap(800,A_n2o)-0.08971),~ -(Mn_overlap(A_ch4,285)-0.08971)~ -(Mn_overlap(800,A_n2o)-0.08971)) Nodelocation: 88,208 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,67,63,632,434,0,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Close Change_in_6 Module Change_in_8 Title: Change in Short Wave Forcing Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sat, Dec 31, 1994 4:35 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 80,120 Nodesize: 52,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Diagstate: 1,177,54,387,278,1 Nodecolor: -27014,-18068,-1860 Module Clear_sky_ Title: Aerosol~ Clear Sky Effect Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Tue, Apr 26, 1994 2:07 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 112,72,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,40,41,482,538,1 Variable Normal_so1 Title: Normalized Change in Clear Sky~ Albedo Due to Sulfates Units: w/m^2 Description: Here the direct impact of sulfate on the atmospheric albe~~ do is calculated Definition: dynamic(Sdir_sky_s*~ ((((((((-0.5*I_toa)*(Fract_of_light1^2))*Frac_clear_sky1)*(Al_of_surf~~ ace1^2))*Norm_so4_opt1)*Up_scatter1))),~ Sdir_sky_s*~ ((((((((-0.5*I_toa)*(Fract_of_light1^2))*Frac_clear_sky1)*(Al_of_surf~~ ace1^2))*Norm_so4_opt1)*Up_scatter1)))~ ) Nodelocation: 400,224,0 Nodesize: 52,40 Windstate: 1,211,132 Reformval: [Time,Time] Chance Humidity_impact_on_s Title: Humidity Impact on Scattering Definition: (1.9*Normal(1,0.1)) Nodelocation: 328,32,1 Nodesize: 52,24 Chance Alfa_so1 Title: Ref Scattering~ Cross Section Definition: (3*Normal(1,0.2)) Nodelocation: 184,32,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Al_of_surface1 Title: Albedo of Underlying Surface Definition: (0.85*Normal(1,0.04)) Nodelocation: 256,184,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Fract_of_light1 Title: Fraction of~ Incident Light Definition: (0.76*Normal(1,0.08)) Nodelocation: 256,288,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Norm_so4_opt1 Title: Normalized Sulfate Optical~ Depth Definition: dynamic((Alfa_so1*Humidity_impact_on_s),(Alfa_so1*Humidity~~ _impact_on_s)) Nodelocation: 400,112,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Reformval: [Time,Time] Chance Up_scatter1 Title: Upward Scattering Definition: (0.29*Normal(1,0.1)) Nodelocation: 256,240,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Frac_clear_sky1 Title: Fraction of Clear Sky Description: Fraction of sky clear of marine stratiform clouds. In Ch~~ arlson, this is given as (0.4*Normal(1,0.04)), but he also gives area~~ of MSC to be 0.3. So, I have modified the equation below to retain ~~ the interaction but be scaled to the right number. Definition: (0.4/0.7)*(1-a_mst) Nodelocation: 256,128,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,0,MIDM Objective Direct_aerosol_forci Title: Direct Aerosol Forcing Units: W/m^2 Description: In this node, the aerosol SW forcing of the clear is sky ~~ is calculated on a regional basis. Definition: Dynamic((Sw_sens*(If (Aerosols_on='NO') Then 0 Else ((A6_r~~ egion_sulfate_b*Evaluate_p(Normal_so1,Uf_aerosol))+(Areal_concentrati~~ on1*Evaluate_p(Normal_oc1,Uf_aerosol))))),(Sw_sens*(If (Aerosols_on='~~ NO') Then 0 Else ((A6_region_sulfate_b*Evaluate_p(Normal_so1,Uf_aeros~~ ol))+(Areal_concentration1*Evaluate_p(Normal_oc1,Uf_aerosol)))))) Nodelocation: 256,368,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,90,79 Valuestate: 1,48,46,702,549,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:7~ Yminimum:-4~ Ymaximum:0~ Zminimum:1975~ Zmaximum:2100~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_6] Variable Normal_oc1 Title: Normalized Change in Clear Sky~ Albedo Due to Smoke (OC&BC) Units: w/m^2 Description: Here the direct impact of smoke on the atmospheric albedo~~ is calculated Definition: dynamic(Sdir_sky_c*~ ((((((-0.5*I_toa)*(Fract_of_light1^2))*Frac_clear_sky1)*(Al_of_surfac~~ e1^2))*Normal_smoke1)*Up_scatter1),~ Sdir_sky_c*((((((-0.5*I_toa)*(Fract_of_light1^2))*Frac_clear_sky1)*(A~~ l_of_surface1^2))*Normal_smoke1)*Up_scatter1)~ ) Nodelocation: 96,224,0 Nodesize: 72,48 Windstate: 1,56,66 Reformval: [Time,Time] Chance Normal_smoke1 Title: Normalized Smoke Optical~ Depth Definition: dynamic(~ (Alfa_so1*Humidity_impact_on_s),(Alfa_so1*Humidity_impact_on_s)~ ) Nodelocation: 96,112,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Reformval: [Time,Time] Constant I_toa Title: Insolation at top of Atmosphere Units: W/sq.m Definition: 1370 Nodelocation: 256,80,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Aliases: Alias Al1 Module Alternative_direct_f Title: Alternative Direct Forcing Model~ Sienfeld & Pandis 1998 Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, Aug 23, 1998 5:20 PM Nodelocation: 256,440,1 Nodesize: 148,36 Diagstate: 1,296,73,469,381,17 Constant F0 Title: F0 Units: W/m^2 Description: Average Insoluation at top of atmosphere Definition: 1370 Nodelocation: 72,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Aliases: Alias F1 Chance Ta Title: TA Definition: 0.76*triangular(.85, 1, 1.15) Nodelocation: 72,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,247,258 Aliases: Alias Ta1 Chance A1_ac Title: 1-AC Definition: 0.4*triangular(.9, 1, 1.1) Nodelocation: 72,120 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance A1_rs Title: 1-Rs Definition: 0.85*triangular(.9, 1, 1.1) Nodelocation: 72,152 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance A_beta Title: ß Definition: 0.29*triangular(.7, 1, 1.3) Nodelocation: 72,184 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Alfa Title: alfa Units: m^2(gSO4)^-1 Definition: 5*triangular(.5, 1, 1.5) Nodelocation: 72,216 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance F_rho_ Title: f(Rho) Units: m^2(gSO4)^-1 Definition: 1.7*triangular(.8, 1, 1.2) Nodelocation: 72,248 Nodesize: 52,20 Objective Direct_forcing_due_t Title: Direct Forcing due to Sulfates Units: W/m^2 Definition: (-0.5*((((((F0*(Ta^2))*A1_ac)*(A1_rs^2))*A_beta)*Alfa)*A6_~~ region_sulfate_b)) Nodelocation: 272,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_6] Alias Areal_concentration2 Title: Areal~ Concentration~ of Sulfates ~ 6 Regions Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 264,48 Nodesize: 52,32 Original: A6_region_sulfate_b Objective Change_in_2 Title: Change in Short Wave Forcing Units: W/m^2 Description: This is the global average for the regional changes in ae~~ rosol forcing.~ Dynamic(~ if Aerosols_on = 'NO' then 0 else Sum(((Lat_sw+Clouds)*Regional_wts)~~ ,Latitudes), ~ if Aerosols_on = 'NO' then 0 else ~ Sum(((Lat_sw+Clouds)*Regional_wts),Latitudes)) Definition: Sum((Direct_forcing_due_t*Regional_wts),regions_6) Nodelocation: 272,216 Nodesize: 52,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,110,67,653,508,1,MIDM Nodecolor: 28835,-1,-1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1.5~ Ymaximum:0~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Alternative_direct_f Close Clear_sky_ Module Cloud_effe Title: Aerosol Cloud~ Effect Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Tue, Apr 26, 1994 2:07 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 304,72,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,290,60,533,432,1 Chance Delta_ccn Title: Delta Cloud~ Droplet Number Description: Not all cloud condensation nuclei can make raindrops. Definition: 1+(0.43*Ccn_cor) Nodelocation: 352,272,0 Nodesize: 56,20 Windstate: 1,241,303 Valuestate: 1,189,229,460,436,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Reference: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Variable Nu_clouds_so4 Title: ± Cloud Albedo~ due to Sulfates Description: The calculations here are based on:~ Source: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Definition: ((((Drct_by_dlnn*A_top_of_a)*A_mst)*I_toa)*0.1) Nodelocation: 264,208,0 Nodesize: 56,20 Windstate: 1,111,294 Valuestate: 1,56,66,506,234,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Time] Reference: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Chance A_mst Title: Area of Marine~ Stratiform Clouds Units: Fraction Description: This is the area of clouds that is affected by the indire~~ ct effect of aerosols. While most (ie, Charlson 1992) assumed that th~~ e area of clouds would stay the same, this is not necessarily correct~~ . For example, the more CCN, the more clouds, the more indirect effec~~ t, and the less direct effect. ~ However, the change has not been effectively incorporated so far ~~ in any form (ie, Delta_ccn[time-1] in the second term, nothing in the~~ first term). If this is changed to other than a constant, the area o~~ f clear sky will have to be adjusted as well. Definition: 0.3*Normal(1, 0.04) Nodelocation: 208,112,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,169,268 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias Area_of_marine_strat Reference: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Chance Drct_by_dlnn Title: Change in Cloud Top Reflectivity with Change in Droplet Number Description: As the droplet number increases, cloud top reflectivity g~~ oes up. Definition: Normal (1,0.1)*.083 Nodelocation: 88,192,0 Nodesize: 60,44 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM Reference: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Chance A_top_of_a Title: ± Top of Atmos Albedo for a ±Cloud Description: This is where the cloud top albedo is specified Definition: 0.8*(normal(1,.04)) Nodelocation: 88,288,0 Nodesize: 60,40 Reference: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Objective Clouds Title: Indirect Aerosol Forcing Units: W/m^2 Description: This is the calculation of the forcing from the indirect ~~ effect. The background forcing due to clouds is expected to be abou~~ t 1 wm-2. I calculate the forcing due to all aerosols and then take~~ back the 1 W/m^2. Definition: if Aerosols_on = 'NO' then 0 else ~ 0.3-ln(Delta_ccn)*Uncertainty_indirect*Nu_clouds_so4 Nodelocation: 464,224,1 Nodesize: 52,32 Windstate: 1,120,130 Valuestate: 1,49,47,676,539,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-2~ Ymaximum:-1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:6~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Reference: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Chance Initial_oc Title: Initial OC Description: This gives the background level of organic carbon, derive~~ d from Penner et al. (1992, p1433) stating that currently the backgro~~ und conc of CCN is 50 to 100 / cm^3, with the anthropogenic conc. of ~~ about 10 / cm^3. Definition: (((10^-6)+Areal_concentration1[Time=1975])*Uniform(5,10)) Nodelocation: 224,280,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Initial_so4 Title: Initial SO4 Description: This gives the background sulfate aerosols level, derive~~ d from Charlson et al (1992, p428).~ 0.0288 Definition: 0.01*Normal(1, 0.2) Nodelocation: 224,336,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Reference: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Chance Ccn_cor Title: CCN Correction Description: The cloud droplet number is increased as a result of incr~~ easing atmospheric concentration of sulfate and organic aerosols. Thi~~ s is measured relative to the background (natural emissions of sulfur~~ going to sulfate, or the background of smoke emissions prior to this~~ simulation). Definition: Dynamic(((((A6_region_sulfate_b+Initial_so4)/Initial_so4)+~~ ((Areal_concentration1+Initial_oc)/Initial_oc))/2),((((A6_region_sulf~~ ate_b+Initial_so4)/Initial_so4)+((Areal_concentration1+Initial_oc)/In~~ itial_oc))/2)) Nodelocation: 352,336,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,216,226 Valuestate: 1,168,178,483,446,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Reference: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Chance Uncertainty_indirect Title: Uncertainty in Indirect Effects Description: The uncertainty in indirect radiative forcing is very lar~~ ge. If the standard deviation is set any larger, forcing extends fro~~ m the positive to the negative domains. Definition: Normal( 1, 0.3 ) Nodelocation: 328,112,1 Nodesize: 56,28 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:1~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:0~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Alias Al1 Title: Insolation at top of Atmosphere Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 88,112,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: I_toa Objective Indirect_aerosol_fo2 Title: Indirect Aerosol Forcing With Sensitivity Code Units: W/m^2 Description: This is the calculation of the forcing from the indirect ~~ effect. The background forcing due to clouds is expected to be abou~~ t 1 wm-2. I calculate the forcing due to all aerosols and then take~~ back the 1 W/m^2. Definition: dynamic(Sw_sens* if Aerosols_on = 'NO' then 0 else (~ Evaluate_p(-ln(Delta_ccn)*Uncertainty_indirect*Nu_clouds_so4, UF_aero~~ sol)), ~ Sw_sens* if Aerosols_on = 'NO' then 0 else (~ Evaluate_p(-ln(Delta_ccn)*Uncertainty_indirect*Nu_clouds_so4, UF_aero~~ sol))) Nodelocation: 464,152,0 Nodesize: 52,32 Valuestate: 1,49,47,676,539,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_6] Reference: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Module Boucher___lohmann_cl Title: Boucher & Lohmann Cloud Drop Number Concentration Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, Aug 23, 1998 5:20 PM Nodelocation: 352,40,1 Nodesize: 96,32 Diagstate: 1,337,303,449,243,17 Chance Volume_so4_conc Title: Regional SO4 concentration Units: ug/m^3 Description: Assuming a tropospheric height of 10 km Definition: (A6_region_sulfate_b/10000) Nodelocation: 80,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_6] Chance Cdnc Title: CDNC Units: cm-3 Definition: 1M*10^(2.21+0.41*ln(Volume_so4_conc)) Nodelocation: 216,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,303,180 Valuestate: 1,232,242,444,334,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective Indirect_aerosol_fo1 Title: Indirect Aerosol Forcing Units: W/m^2 Description: This is the calculation of the forcing from the indirect ~~ effect. The background forcing due to clouds is expected to be abou~~ t 1 wm-2. I calculate the forcing due to all aerosols and then take~~ back the 1 W/m^2. Definition: ln(CDNC)*Uncertainty_indirect*Nu_clouds_so4 Nodelocation: 344,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,49,47,676,539,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_6] Reference: Charlson et al. Science 255, 423-430, 1992. Close Boucher___lohmann_cl Module Change_in_cloud_albe Title: Change in Cloud Albedo Due to Sulfates Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, Aug 23, 1998 5:20 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 160,40,1 Nodesize: 96,32 Diagstate: 1,177,268,449,243,17 Alias F1 Title: F0 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 64,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: F0 Alias Ta1 Title: TA Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 216,32,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Ta Alias Area_of_marine_strat Title: Area of Marine~ Stratiform Clouds Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 368,32,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Original: A_mst Close Change_in_cloud_albe Close Cloud_effe Objective Change_in_7 Title: Change in Short Wave Forcing Units: W/m^2 Description: This is the global average for the regional changes in ae~~ rosol forcing. Definition: Sum(((Direct_aerosol_forci+clouds)*Regional_wts),regions_6~~ ) Nodelocation: 232,192,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,263,221 Valuestate: 1,136,97,653,508,1,MIDM Nodecolor: 28835,-1,-1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1.5~ Ymaximum:0~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Regional_wts Title: Regional to Global Weightings Definition: regional_areas_6/sum(regional_areas_6, regions_6) Nodelocation: 112,192,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,MIDM Close Change_in_8 Module Elicited_c1 Title: Elicited~ Climate Model Description: The data from the Morgan-Keith Climate expert elicitions ~~ is used here in combination with a simple regionally disaggregated cl~~ imate model to arrive at latitudinally differentialted climate trajec~~ tories for change in temperature and precipitation. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, 27 Feb, 1994 10:29 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 152,200,1 Nodesize: 60,28 Diagstate: 1,235,60,444,299,1 Nodecolor: 65535,52425,39321 Module Climate_ex Title: Climate Expert Data Description: Observational evidence places a constraint on the samplin~~ g of Climate sensitivity and climate lag time. The climate lag time ~~ data from experts has not been used here. Instead intervals of the c~~ limate sensitivity are coupled to lag time intervals. The anti-corre~~ lation is achieved with partially overlapping sampling ranges for dif~~ ferent climate sensitivities. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Oct 26, 1994 9:06 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 72,128 Nodesize: 52,32 Diagstate: 1,150,54,476,377,1 Nodecolor: 58978,52427,65535 Objective Tau_climat1 Title: Tau Climate Units: years Description: Observational evidence places a constraint on the samplin~~ g of Climate sensitivity and climate lag time. The climate lag time ~~ data from experts has not been used here. Instead intervals of the c~~ limate sensitivity are coupled to lag time intervals. The anti-corre~~ lation is achieved with partially overlapping sampling ranges for dif~~ ferent climate sensitivities. Definition: Cl_tau_sens*~ Evaluate_p(Climate_resp , UF_Climate)+1 Nodelocation: 352,280,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,189,230 Valuestate: 1,275,40,524,576,0,STAT Aliases: Alias Tau_climate Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:1~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:200~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Determ Expert_switch Title: Climate~ Expert Switch Description: This is used to switch between the experts elicited by Mo~~ rgan and Keith. At present only the data for Experts 7 and 9 are com~~ plete. Definition: 9 Nodelocation: 80,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,72,82 Aliases: Alias Climate_expert_switc Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Objective Delta_t Title: Delta T Description: Climate sensitivity as elicited by Morgan and Keith.~ ((Cl_resp_sens*Sensitivitymodifier)*Evaluate_p(Delta_t_x,Uf_climate))~~ Definition: truncated_t*(mean(delta_t_x)/mean(truncated_t)) Nodelocation: 352,200 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,475,152,525,471,0,STAT Aliases: Alias Delta_t1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:8~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Objective Grad_t1 Title: Grad T Description: Pole to equator temperature gradients as elicitited by Mo~~ rgan and Keith (1995) then corrected for the 70°N to 90°N discrepancy~~ and finally bounded by the physical constraints on equatorial temper~~ ature change from the same expert's climate sensitivity sampled value~~ .~ Evaluate_p(Grat_t_x , UF_climate) Definition: Truncate(((Grat_t_x-40)/(Sin(70)^2)),(-3*Delta_t)) Indexvals: [Truncate(((Grat_t_x-40)/(Sin(70)^2)),(-3*Delta_t)),((Grat_t_x~~ -40)/(Sin(70)^2)),'Delta T'] Nodelocation: 352,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,267,246 Valuestate: 1,68,216,736,304,0,SAMP Aliases: Alias Grad_t2 Reformval: [Self,Run] Objective Delta_precip Title: Delta Precip Description: Precipitation ranges for different latitude bands as elic~~ itited by Morgan and Keith Definition: Evaluate_p(Delta_p_x , UF_Climate) Nodelocation: 352,120 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Norm_tau_unc Title: Normalized Tau Uncertainty Definition: Triangular( 0.1, 1, 3 ) Nodelocation: 80,280,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,344,354,416,303,0,STAT Chance Grat_t_x Title: Grat T from Expert chosen Description: Here, the change in pole to equator temperature gradient ~~ of a specific climate expert is selected. Definition: ifonly expert_switch = 7 then G_5 else G_7 Nodelocation: 224,160,1 Nodesize: 64,20 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Delta_t_x Title: Delta T from Expert Chosen Description: Here, the Temperature sensitivity of a specific climate e~~ xpert is selected. Definition: ifonly expert_switch = 7 then Dt_mix_7 else Dt_mix_9 Nodelocation: 224,200,1 Nodesize: 64,20 Valuestate: 1,128,190,335,422,0,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:8~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance Delta_p_x Title: Delta P from Expert Chosen Description: Here, the precipitation sensitivity of a specific climate~~ expert is selected. Definition: ifonly expert_switch = 7 then Precip_exp_7 else Precip_exp~~ ert_9 Nodelocation: 224,120,1 Nodesize: 64,20 Variable Climate_resp Title: Climate Response Time Description: The time constant for climate response and the sensitivit~~ y are presumably correlated. Observed climate climate change can be ~~ due to highly sensitive but slow dynamics or insensitive and fast dyn~~ amics. In this node a simple linear equation is used to force the co~~ rrelation between time constants for climate response and climate sen~~ sitivity Definition: Norm_tau_unc*10*delta_t/Sensitivitymodifier Nodelocation: 224,280,1 Nodesize: 56,20 Windstate: 1,139,57 Valuestate: 1,205,88,389,478,1,CDFP Aliases: Alias Climate_response_tim Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:5~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:20~ Xmaximum:120~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Module Elicited_results_fro Title: Elicited Climate Dynamics Paramter Ranges from Experts Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Apr 16, 1998 5:31 PM Nodelocation: 224,48 Nodesize: 200,28 Diagstate: 1,280,290,368,289,17 Module Expert_1 Title: Expert 1 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,57,66,457,374,3 Chance Dt_1 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 1 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: fractiles([0.7,1.25,1.4,1.55,1.65,1.7,1.8,1.9,2,2.05,2.1,2~~ .2,2.3,2.5,2.6,2.8,3,3.3,3.6,4,5]) Nodelocation: 144,48 Nodesize: 88,20 Valuestate: 1,175,141,406,298,1,CDFP Graphsetup: Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:0~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:0.5~ Xmaximum:5~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:0~ Zmaximum:1u~ Xintervals:9~ Yintervals:0~ Chance G_1 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 1 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([32,33,34,35,36,37,38,38.6,39.2,40,43]) Nodelocation: 144,160 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,95,121,406,298,0,STAT Graphsetup: Distresol:1~ Diststeps:0~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:30~ Xmaximum:45~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:0~ Zmaximum:1u~ Xintervals:4~ Yintervals:5~ Chance Dt_mix_1 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss. - Expt 1 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. Definition: fractiles([0.7,1.25,1.4,1.55,1.65,1.7,1.8,1.9,2,2.05,2.1,2~~ .2,2.3,2.5,2.6,2.8,3,3.3,3.6,4,5]) Nodelocation: 144,104 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,95,122,405,297,1,CDFP Graphsetup: Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:0~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:-6~ Xmaximum:12~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:0~ Zmaximum:1u~ Xintervals:9~ Yintervals:0~ Close Expert_1 Module Expert_2 Title: Expert 2 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 48,64 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,52,70,533,307,3 Chance Dt_2 Title: Clim. sens. w/2x CO2/ws - Expt 2 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([-6,-2,0,0.7,1,1.3,1.5,1.75,2,2.4,2.6,2.9,3.2,3.~~ 6,4.2,4.8,5.4,6.1,7,8,10]) Nodelocation: 152,128 Nodesize: 88,20 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,1,CDFP Chance G_2 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 2 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Table(Case2)(Fractiles([35.5,37,37.5,37.9,38.2,38.5,38.75,~~ 39.1,39.5,40,41]),Fractiles([35.5,37,37.5,37.9,38.2,38.5,39,39.8,40.8~~ ,42.2,45])) Nodelocation: 152,256 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,STAT Reformval: [Case2,Statslabels] Chance Dt_mix_2 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss. - Expt 2 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. NOTE: distribution adjusted to keep sam~~ e mean and make 1.5 Times New Roman as wide per expert's indication.~~ Definition: (Fractiles([-6,-2,0,0.7,1,1.3,1.5,1.75,2,2.4,2.6,2.9,3.2,3~~ .6,4.2,4.8,5.4,6.1,7,8,10])-2.924)*1.5+2.924 Nodelocation: 152,200 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,1,CDFP Index Case2 Title: Existance of "climate state switch" Definition: ['w/o climate switch','w/ climate switch'] Nodelocation: 384,256 Nodesize: 100,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['w/o climate switch','w/ climate switch'~~ ]} Chance Dt_17 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 2 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([0,.5,1,1.7,2.5,3.25,4.2,5,6.2,7,9]) Nodelocation: 160,72 Nodesize: 88,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,STAT Close Expert_2 Module Expert_3 Title: Expert 3 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 48,104 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,40,50,487,269,1 Chance Dt_3 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 3 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: fractiles([-3,-1.5,-0.5,0.2,1,1.5,2.2,2.4,2.5,2.6,2.75,3,3~~ .3,3.5,3.8,4.2,4.4,5,5.7,10]) Nodelocation: 160,64 Nodesize: 88,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,1,CDFP Chance Dt_mix_3 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss. - Expt 3 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. NOTE: expert 3 has not responded Definition: fractiles([-3,-1.5,-0.5,0.2,1,1.5,2.2,2.4,2.5,2.6,2.75,3,3~~ .3,3.5,3.8,4.2,4.4,5,5.7,10]) Nodelocation: 160,120 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,1,CDFP Close Expert_3 Module Expert_4 Title: Expert 4 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 48,144 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,56,66,503,246,1 Chance Dt_4 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 4 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Table(Case3)(~ Fractiles([0,1,1.4,1.7,2.1,2.5,3.2,3.9,4.9,6,8.75]),Fractiles([-10,0,~~ 0.6,1.2,1.4,1.5,1.6,1.9,2.1,2.4,2.5,3.2,4,5,6,7.4,9,11,13,16,20])) Nodelocation: 160,64 Nodesize: 88,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,CDFP Chance G_3 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 4 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([29,31,32.2,33.3,34.4,35,35.7,36.3,36.9,37.5,39.~~ 5]) Nodelocation: 160,176 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,STAT Chance Dt_mix_4 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss. - Expt 4 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. NOTE: expert 4 has not responded Definition: Table(Case3)(~ Fractiles([0,1,1.4,1.7,2.1,2.5,3.2,3.9,4.9,6,8.75]),Fractiles([-10,0,~~ 0.6,1.2,1.4,1.5,1.6,1.9,2.1,2.4,2.5,3.2,4,5,6,7.4,9,11,13,16,20])) Nodelocation: 160,120 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,1,CDFP Index Case3 Title: Possibility of surprise Definition: ['excluding surprises','admitting surprises'] Nodelocation: 400,120 Nodesize: 100,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['excluding surprises','admitting surprise~~ s']} Close Expert_4 Module Expert_5 Title: Expert 5 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 48,184 Nodesize: 48,20 Chance Dt_5 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 5 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: fractiles([0,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.45,1.~~ 0]) Nodelocation: 152,56 Nodesize: 88,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,CDFP Chance G_4 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 5 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([40,40.18,40.24,40.3,40.34,40.4,40.45,40.52,40.6~~ 3,40.8,41.1]) Nodelocation: 152,168 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,STAT Chance Dt_mix_5 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss. - Expt 5 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. NOTE: expert 5 has not responded but w~~ ill have little or no effect. Definition: fractiles([0,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.45,1.~~ 0]) Nodelocation: 152,112 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,1,CDFP Close Expert_5 Module Expert_6 Title: Expert 6 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 48,224 Nodesize: 48,20 Chance Dt_6 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 6 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([-2,-.25,.9,1.75,2.4,2.9,3.4,3.8,4.4,5,7]) Nodelocation: 152,56 Nodesize: 88,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,1,CDFP Chance Dt_mix_6 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss. - Expt 6 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. NOTE No response Definition: Fractiles([-2,-.25,.9,1.75,2.4,2.9,3.4,3.8,4.4,5,7]) Nodelocation: 152,112 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,1,CDFP Close Expert_6 Module Expert_7 Title: Expert 7 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 176,24 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,65,147,409,322,1 Chance Dt_7 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 7 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([0.5,1.6,2.1,2.4,2.6,2.9,3.1,3.4,3.8,5.2,8]) Nodelocation: 144,64 Nodesize: 88,20 Valuestate: 1,94,55,214,225,0,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:8~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance G_5 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 7 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([30,32,32.5,32.9,33.3,34,34.8,35.9,37,38.2,40]) Nodelocation: 152,168 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,493,402,1,PDFP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:30~ Xmaximum:40~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Chance Dt_mix_7 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss. - Expt 7 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. NOTE: no response but almost certatinly~~ small. Definition: Fractiles([0.5,1.6,2.1,2.4,2.6,2.9,3.1,3.4,3.8,5.2,8]) Nodelocation: 152,112 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,322,54,192,226,0,STAT Chance Precip_exp_7 Title: Precipitation Expert 7 Definition: Table(Precip_lat)(~ Triangular(1.05,1.2,1.3),Triangular(0.8,1.15,1.25),Triangular(0.75,0.~~ 85,1.1),Triangular(0.75,0.8,1.1)) Nodelocation: 144,224 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,97,66,697,471,1,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:100~ Yminimum:0.6~ Ymaximum:1.4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Precip_lat,Undefined] Close Expert_7 Module Expert_8 Title: Expert 8 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 176,64 Nodesize: 48,20 Chance Dt_8 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 8 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([0.5,1.4,1.7,2,2.3,2.5,2.9,3.3,4,4.9,6.8]) Nodelocation: 152,56 Nodesize: 88,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,STAT Chance G_6 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 8 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([32,32.8,33.4,34,34.9,36,36.8,37.8,38.7,40.2]) Nodelocation: 152,168 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,STAT Chance Dt_mix_8 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss. - Expt 8 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. Definition: Fractiles([0, 1,1.4,1.8,2.2,2.7,3.3,4.1,5,6.3,8.5]) Nodelocation: 152,112 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,1,CDFP Close Expert_8 Module Expert_9 Title: Expert 9 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 176,104 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,40,134,416,231,1 Chance Dt_9 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 9 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([0,0.8,1.1,1.3,1.4,1.6,1.75,1.9,2,2.3,2.5,2.7,3,~~ 3.3,3.6,4,4.3,4.8,5.5,6,9]) Nodelocation: 160,64 Nodesize: 88,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,PDFP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:3~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:8~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance G_7 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 9 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([35,35.7,36.25,36.75,37.25,37.8,38.3,38.75,39.2,~~ 39.4,39.5,39.6,39.7,39.75,39.76,39.8,39.82,39.9,40,41]) Nodelocation: 160,176 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,PDFP Chance Dt_mix_9 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss. - Expt 9 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. Definition: Fractiles([-3,-1,0.4,1.3,1.8,2.7,3.7,4.9,6.2,7.6,10]) Nodelocation: 160,120 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,1,CDFP Chance Precip_expert_9 Title: Precipitation Expert 9 Definition: Table(Precip_lat)(~ Triangular(1,1.4,1.7),Triangular(0.95,1.25,1.6),Triangular(0.85,1.1,1~~ .5),Triangular(0.8,1.1,1.5)) Nodelocation: 168,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,97,338,507,265,1,PDFP Close Expert_9 Module Expert_10 Title: Expert 10 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 176,144 Nodesize: 48,20 Chance Dt_10 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 10 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([.3,1.3,1.8,2.2,2.5,2.7,2.9,3.2,3.5,3.9,4.5]) Nodelocation: 168,72 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,0,STAT Chance G_8 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 10 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([33,34.8,35.7,36.1,36.5,36.9,37.1,37.3,37.6,38.1~~ ,39]) Nodelocation: 168,184 Nodesize: 96,20 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,STAT Chance Dt_mix_10 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss - Expt 10 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. Definition: Fractiles([.1,1.1,1.75,2,2.35,2.75,3.1,3.4,3.6,4.2,5]) Nodelocation: 168,128 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,CDFP Close Expert_10 Module Expert_11 Title: Expert 11 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 176,184 Nodesize: 48,20 Chance Dt_11 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 11 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([1,1.5,1.65,1.8,1.9,2,2.2,2.3,2.5,2.75,2.9,3.1,3~~ .3,3.5,3.75,4,4.2,4.5,4.7,4.9,5.5]) Nodelocation: 176,80 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,0,STAT Graphsetup: Distresol:1~ Diststeps:0~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:6~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:0~ Zmaximum:1u~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Chance G_9 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 11 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([30,34,35.6,36.4,37,37.7,38.2,38.7,39.1,39.5,40,~~ 40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40]) Nodelocation: 176,192 Nodesize: 96,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,STAT Chance Dt_mix_11 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss - Expt 11 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. Definition: Fractiles([0,.75,1.25,1.7,2.2,2.5,3,3.65,4.75,5.9,8.5]) Nodelocation: 176,136 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,CDFP Close Expert_11 Module Expert_12 Title: Expert 12 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 176,224 Nodesize: 48,20 Chance Dt_12 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 12 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([.5,1.25,1.5,1.7,1.85,2,2.1,2.2,2.3,2.4,2.5,2.65~~ ,2.8,2.95,3.15,3.35,3.65,4,4.5,5,6]) Nodelocation: 184,88 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,STAT Chance Dt_mix_12 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss - Expt 12 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. Definition: Fractiles([0.5,1.5,2,2.4,2.7,3,3.4,3.9,4.5,5.5,7]) Nodelocation: 184,144 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,1,CDFP Close Expert_12 Module Expert_13 Title: Expert 13 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 304,24 Nodesize: 48,20 Chance Dt_13 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 13 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([0,.5,.65,.8,1,1.1,1.25,1.4,1.6,1.75,1.9,2.05,2.~~ 2,2.3,2.45,2.6,2.75,2.9,3.25,3.75,4.5]) Nodelocation: 192,96 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,STAT Chance G_10 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 13 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: fractiles([33,34.4,34.9,35.3,35.7,36.1,36.8,37.5,38.3,39.2~~ ,40]) Nodelocation: 192,208 Nodesize: 96,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,STAT Chance Dt_mix_13 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss - Expt 13 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. Definition: Fractiles([0,.5,.65,.8,1,1.1,1.25,1.4,1.6,1.75,1.9,2.05,2.~~ 3,2.55,2.9,3.15,3.5,3.8,4.25,4.65,6]) Nodelocation: 192,152 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,1,CDFP Close Expert_13 Module Expert_14 Title: Expert 14 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 304,64 Nodesize: 48,20 Chance Dt_14 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 14 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([1,1.7,1.9,2.1,2.2,2.35,2.45,2.6,2.7,2.8,2.95,3.~~ 1,3.25,3.4,3.6,3.8,4,4.25,4.5,4.8,5.5]) Nodelocation: 200,104 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,STAT Chance G_11 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 14 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([30,32,33,33.8,34.5,35.2,36,36.8,37.6,38.6,40]) Nodelocation: 200,216 Nodesize: 96,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,STAT Chance Dt_mix_14 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss - Expt 14 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. Definition: Fractiles([.6,1.25,1.6,1.9,2.1,2.25,2.45,2.6,2.7,2.8,2.95,~~ 3.1,3.25,3.4,3.6,3.8,4,4.25,4.5,4.8,5.5]) Nodelocation: 200,160 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,1,CDFP Close Expert_14 Module Expert_15 Title: Expert 15 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 304,104 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,72,82,428,283,3 Chance Dt_15 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 15 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([0,.3,0.55,.8,1,1.2,1.35,1.5,1.7,1.9,2.1,2.25,2.~~ 4,2.65,2.8,3.1,3.3,3.6,4,4.5,5]) Nodelocation: 208,112 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,STAT Graphsetup: Distresol:10~ Diststeps:0~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:5~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:0~ Zmaximum:0~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Chance G_13 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 15 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([0]) Nodelocation: 208,224 Nodesize: 96,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,1,CDFP Chance Dt_mix_15 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss - Expt 15 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. Definition: Fractiles([0,1.2,1.65,2,2.25,2.55,2.9,3.25,3.8,5.1,9]) Nodelocation: 208,168 Nodesize: 100,20 Windstate: 1,56,67 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,CONF Close Expert_15 Module Expert_16 Title: Expert 16 Author: Granger Date: Wed, Apr 13, 1994 1:38 PM Nodelocation: 304,144 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,104,114,419,306,3 Chance Dt_16 Title: Clim. sens. w/ 2x CO2 - Expt 16 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity under 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([1,1.5,1.65,1.8,1.95,2.1,2.2,2.3,2.45,2.55,2.7,2~~ .85,3,3.15,3.3,3.5,3.7,3.9,4.15,4.5,5.5]) Nodelocation: 216,120 Nodesize: 92,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,STAT Chance G_14 Title: Grad T, pole-equator - Expert 16 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for for polar cap to equator temperature gradiant und~~ er 2xCO2 Definition: Fractiles([37.6,38,38.18,38.3,38.42,38.55,38.66,38.76,38.8~~ 4,38.92,39,39.08,39.14,39.22,39.3,39.38,39.45,39.55,39.64,39.8,40.2])~~ Nodelocation: 216,232 Nodesize: 96,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,0,STAT Chance Dt_mix_16 Title: Clim. sens. w/ eqiv. emiss - Expt 16 Units: Deg C Description: CDF for climate sensitivity with current emissions at a l~~ evel whose forcing is estiamted to produce a stabalized radiative for~~ cing equivalant to twice CO2. Definition: Fractiles([0.6,1.1,1.3,1.5,1.8,2,2.2,2.4,2.5,2.7,2.9,3.2,3~~ .4,3.6,4,4.3,4.7,5.1,5.7,6.5]) Nodelocation: 216,176 Nodesize: 100,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,1,CDFP Close Expert_16 Index Precip_lat Title: Precipitation Latitudes Definition: ['50 to 90 N','30 to 50 N','Eq to 30 N','Eq to 90 S'] Nodelocation: 304,200 Nodesize: 52,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['50 to 90 N','30 to 50 N','Eq to 30 N','~~ Eq to 90 S']} Close Elicited_results_fro Chance Truncated_t Title: Truncated T Definition: truncate(Delta_t_x, 0) Nodelocation: 224,232,0 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,395,343,416,303,0,STAT Close Climate_ex Module Model_of_p Title: Model of Precipitation Response Description: This is the module that uses the expert data on relative ~~ changes in latitudinal precipitation patterns. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Oct 30, 1994 8:40 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 344,40 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,404,149,546,283,1 Nodecolor: 58978,52427,65535 Variable Translatio Title: Translation to 7 Lattitude Bands Description: We have data on four latitude bands for precipitation. T~~ hese are translated crudely into the seven bands used in the model. Definition: Table(Latitudes)(~ High_lat,High_lat,Mid_lat,Low_lat,South_lats,South_lats,South_lats) Nodelocation: 248,128,1 Nodesize: 52,24 Windstate: 1,130,42 Defnstate: 1,336,321,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,0,MIDM Variable High_lat Title: High lat Definition: slice(delta_precip, precip_lat,1) Nodelocation: 120,64,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,258,321 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,1,CDFP Variable Mid_lat Title: Mid lat Definition: slice(delta_precip, precip_lat,2) Nodelocation: 120,104,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,360,370,416,303,0,MIDM Variable Low_lat Title: Low lat Definition: slice(delta_precip, precip_lat,3) Nodelocation: 120,144,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable South_lats Title: Southern lats Definition: slice(delta_precip, precip_lat,4) Nodelocation: 120,184,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,1,CDFP Objective Regional_precip Title: Regional Precipitation Units: Change Definition: (Ratio_of_temperature*(Translation_to_regio-1))+1 Nodelocation: 400,192,0 Nodesize: 52,32 Valuestate: 1,56,66,534,470,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Ratio_of_temperature Title: Ratio of temperature change to 2xCO2 equilibrium Definition: ((Global_average__t)/Delta_t) Nodelocation: 400,48,1 Nodesize: 80,28 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Translation_to_regio Title: Translation to regions Definition: Sum((Translatio*Un_lat),Latitudes) Nodelocation: 248,192,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,375,69,416,303,0,MIDM Close Model_of_p Module M_elicited_c Title: Regional Climate model Author: Milind Date: Sat, Sep 2, 1995 2:13 PM Defaultsize: 64,24 Nodelocation: 216,208 Nodesize: 56,32 Diagstate: 1,282,108,494,362,1 Nodecolor: 58978,52427,65535 Fontstyle: Arial, 12 Variable Regional_t Title: Regional Temperatures Units: degrees C Description: This is the regional temperature projections. Definition: Dynamic(Regional_dt,Regional_dt) Nodelocation: 176,208,0 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,63,82,475,417,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:8~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable A990_regio Title: 1990 Regional Temperatures Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,0,0,0,Slice(Regional_dt,Time,4),A990_reg~~ io[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 288,208,0 Nodesize: 60,20 Valuestate: 1,105,115,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Regional_t_1990 Title: Regional ±T From 1990 Definition: Dynamic( scen_fill,Regional_t_1990[time-1], Regional_t_199~~ 0[time-1],Regional_t_1990[time-1], Regional_t- A990_regio ) Nodelocation: 232,264,0 Nodesize: 64,24 Aliases: Alias Al10 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Module Longwave_distributed Title: Latitudinal Longwave Effect Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 29 Apr, 1998 11:17 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 232,48,0 Nodesize: 72,32 Diagstate: 1,202,200,480,269,17 Alias Global_delta_t Title: Global Delta T Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 104,64,0 Nodesize: 56,20 Original: Global_deltat Alias Change_in_pole_equat Title: Change in Pole-Equator Temperature Gradiant Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 104,144,0 Nodesize: 56,36 Original: Pole_equator_gradian Variable Alpha_through_time Title: Alpha through time Units: °C Description: This is the temperature trajectory at the equator. Definition: Global_deltat+Pole_equator_gradian/3 Nodelocation: 256,64,0 Nodesize: 56,24 Valuestate: 1,72,82,665,380,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective Latitudinal_dt Title: Latitudinal Temperature Change due to Longwave forcing Units: °C Definition: Alpha_through_time-Pole_equator_gradian*lat_ws/3 Nodelocation: 256,144,0 Nodesize: 64,40 Windstate: 1,245,357 Valuestate: 1,167,165,501,417,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Latitudinal_tempera1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Latitudes] Variable Lat_ws Title: Latitudinal Weights for Distribution of ±T Description: These weights correspond to the coefficients of the Legen~~ dre Polynomial distributing the temperature change on an areal averag~~ e basis across different latitude bands. Definition: Table(Latitudes)(~ (((Sin(90)^2)+(Sin(75)^2))+(Sin(90)*Sin(75))),(((Sin(75)^2)+(Sin(50)^~~ 2))+(Sin(50)*Sin(75))),(((Sin(50)^2)+(Sin(30)^2))+(Sin(50)*Sin(30))),~~ (((Sin(30)^2)+(Sin(0)^2))+(Sin(30)*Sin(0))),(((Sin(30)^2)+(Sin(0)^2))~~ +(Sin(30)*Sin(0))),(((Sin(55)^2)+(Sin(30)^2))+(Sin(55)*Sin(30))),(((S~~ in(55)^2)+(Sin(90)^2))+(Sin(55)*Sin(90)))) Nodelocation: 392,96,0 Nodesize: 56,36 Valuestate: 1,795,215,173,332,0,MIDM Close Longwave_distributed Module Latiduinal_shortwave Title: Regional Climate Including Shortwave Effect Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Wed, Apr 29, 1998 6:14 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 232,136,0 Nodesize: 72,32 Diagstate: 1,163,105,466,413,17 Constant Un_lat Title: UN Reg to Lat matrix Description: This is the matrix that converts from UN Regions to Latit~~ udinal Bands. The weighting function can be based on sin(theta), on ~~ areas, or on population density. Definition: Table(Latitudes,Regions_12)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0.3,0,0.4,0.5,0.8,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0.6,0,0.6,0.5,0.2,0.2,0,0.3,0.9,0.3,0,1,~ 0.1,0.3,0,0,0,0.8,0,0.7,0.1,0.7,0,0,~ 0,0.55,0,0,0,0,0.95,0,0,0,0.85,0,~ 0,0.15,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0.15,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 88,48 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,51,170 Defnstate: 1,62,260,721,300,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,72,82,656,316,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Latitudes,Regions_12] Reformval: [Latitudes,Regions_12] Alias Latitudinal_tempera1 Title: Latitudinal Temperature Change Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 232,48 Nodesize: 56,44 Original: Latitudinal_dt Alias Normalized_regional1 Title: Normalized Regional Sensitivities Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 88,184 Nodesize: 56,32 Original: Normalized_regional_ Variable Instantaneous_respo1 Title: Instantaneous Temperature Response Units: °C/W^2 Description: Global change in temperature change divided by radiative ~~ forcing at each time period gives and equivalent instantaneous sensit~~ ivity.~ Global_deltat/Lw_forcing Definition: Five_year_response*Delta_t/4.4 Nodelocation: 88,256 Nodesize: 60,32 Windstate: 1,180,147 Valuestate: 1,206,58,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Regional_temperature Title: regional temperature change due to LW forcing Units: °C Definition: Sum((Latitudinal_dt*Un_lat),Latitudes) Nodelocation: 376,48 Nodesize: 60,40 Valuestate: 1,56,66,534,470,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Regional__6__shortwa Title: Regional (6) Shortwave temperature effect Units: °C Definition: Change_in_regional_s*Instantaneous_respo1*Normalized_regio~~ nal_ Nodelocation: 240,184 Nodesize: 60,40 Valuestate: 1,104,114,678,483,1,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:0.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Regional__12__shortw Title: Regional (12) Shortwave temperature effect Units: °C Definition: sum(Regional__6__shortwa*A6_to_12, regions_6) Nodelocation: 240,320 Nodesize: 64,44 Valuestate: 1,56,66,637,495,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.75~ Ymaximum:-0.25~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective Regional_dt Title: Regional Temperature Change Units: °C Definition: Regional_temperature+Regional__12__shortw Nodelocation: 376,320 Nodesize: 56,28 Valuestate: 1,81,53,688,533,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Regional_temperatur1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Module Regional_redistribut Title: Regional Redistributions Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Mon, Sep 14, 1998 10:15 AM Nodelocation: 88,320 Nodesize: 72,24 Chance A6_to_12 Title: 6 Region to 12 Region Concentration Matrix Description: This is the matrix that converts from UN Regions to Latit~~ udinal Bands. Definition: Table(Regions_12,Regions_6)(~ 0,0,0,0,0.7,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0.3,1,~ Western_europe,0,0,0,0,0,~ Eastern_europe,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,1,0,0,0,~ 0,North_africa,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,1,~ 0,West_asia,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,China,0,0,~ 0,0,0,Tigers,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,1,~ 0,0,0,Japan,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 60,44 Defnstate: 1,64,237,741,318,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,75,167,741,414,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:6~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformdef: [Regions_6,Regions_12] Reformval: [Regions_6,Regions_12] Chance Eastern_europe Title: Eastern Europe Definition: if Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,4) = 0 then 0~ else~ 2*Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,4)/~ (Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,3)+Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,4)) Nodelocation: 208,64 Nodesize: 56,20 Valuestate: 1,275,70,449,366,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Chance Western_europe Title: Western Europe Definition: if Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,3) = 0 then 0~ else~ 2*Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,3)/~ (Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,3)+Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,4)) Nodelocation: 208,96 Nodesize: 56,20 Valuestate: 1,275,70,449,366,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Chance North_africa Title: North Africa Definition: if Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,6) = 0 then 0~ else~ 2*Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,6)/~ (Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,6)+Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,8)) Nodelocation: 304,64 Nodesize: 56,20 Valuestate: 1,275,70,449,366,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Chance West_asia Title: West Asia Definition: if Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,8) = 0 then 0~ else~ 2*Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,8)/~ (Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,6)+Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,8)) Nodelocation: 304,96 Nodesize: 56,20 Valuestate: 1,275,70,449,366,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Chance China Title: China Definition: if Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,9) = 0 then 0~ else~ 3*Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,9)/~ (Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,9)+Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,10)+Slice(Reg_s,Reg~~ ions_12,12)) Nodelocation: 376,64 Nodesize: 56,20 Valuestate: 1,275,70,449,366,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Chance Tigers Title: Tigers Definition: if Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,10) = 0 then 0~ else~ 3*Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,10)/~ (Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,9)+Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,10)+Slice(Reg_s,Reg~~ ions_12,12)) Nodelocation: 384,88 Nodesize: 56,20 Valuestate: 1,275,70,449,366,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Chance Japan Title: Japan Definition: if Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,12) = 0 then 0~ else~ 3*Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,12)/~ (Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,9)+Slice(Reg_s,Regions_12,10)+Slice(Reg_s,Reg~~ ions_12,12)) Nodelocation: 384,120 Nodesize: 56,20 Valuestate: 1,275,70,449,366,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Close Regional_redistribut Objective Change_in_regional_s Title: Change in regional Shortwave Forcing Definition: Direct_aerosol_forci+clouds Nodelocation: 88,120 Nodesize: 56,32 Reformval: [Time,Regions_6] Close Latiduinal_shortwave Close M_elicited_c Module Global_tem Title: Global Temperature~ Change Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Mon, Jan 15, 1996 9:28 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 344,128 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,133,129,474,331,1 Nodecolor: 58978,52427,65535 Variable Global_av Title: Global Av T Since 1990 Definition: Dynamic((Global_average__t-Globally_a),(Global_average__t-~~ Globally_a)) Nodelocation: 136,208,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,528,240,0,STAT Aliases: Alias Al11 Graphsetup: Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.6976~ Ymaximum:19.3~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Objective Global_average__t Title: Global Average ±T Units: °C Description: This is the area-weighted average of the latitudinal temp~~ erature changes. Definition: Dynamic(Sum((Regional_dt*Regional_areas_12),Regions_12),Su~~ m((Regional_dt*Regional_areas_12),Regions_12)) Nodelocation: 232,128,0 Nodesize: 48,28 Windstate: 1,63,97 Valuestate: 1,131,94,772,521,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Global_average_tempe, Formnode Global_average_temp1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:15~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:8e+187~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:5~ Yintervals:6~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.1,0.5,0.9]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 3 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,F,4,2,0,0 Variable Globally_a Title: Globally Averaged 1990 Temperature Description: This is the regional temperature in 1990. Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,0,0,Global_average__t,Globally_a[Time-1]~~ ) Nodelocation: 80,128,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Variable Annual_rt Title: Annual Rate of ±T Units: °C/Yr Definition: Dynamic(0.03, (Global_average__t-Global_average__t[Time-1]~~ )/5) Nodelocation: 368,128,0 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,104,85,673,470,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:2000~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.09~ Zminimum:0.1~ Zmaximum:0.9~ Xintervals:5~ Yintervals:6~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.1,0.5,0.9]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Instantaneous_respon Title: Instantaneous Response Units: °C/W^2 Description: This node is used to calculate the instantaneous (5 year)~~ response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing. Definition: Global_average__t/Lw_forcing Nodelocation: 296,208,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,253,273 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Constant Regional_areas_12 Title: 12 Region Areas Units: Tm^2 Description: Area of the globe covered by each of 6 regions simulated ~~ by Schlesinger et al (1997) in their study of differential impacts of~~ aerosols on climate change. Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.08,0.01) Nodelocation: 232,48,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,417,327,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,191,161,416,303,0,MIDM Close Global_tem Module Calculated_regional_ Title: Calculated Regional Climate Sensitivities Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 29 Apr, 1998 11:17 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 72,208 Nodesize: 52,32 Diagstate: 1,212,162,467,260,17 Nodecolor: 58978,52427,65535 Chance Regional_6_sstd Title: Regional (6) Sensitivities~ Std Dev Units: °C/W^2 Description: These are the st devisions of sensitivity measures genera~~ ted by Schlesinger et at (1997) by applying the 10x sulfate mask to v~~ arious global regions and then calculating the effective sensitivity ~~ of the global average temperature. Definition: Table(Regions_6)(~ 0.283,0.122,0.333,0.069,0.043,0.031) Nodelocation: 88,32 Nodesize: 60,28 Windstate: 1,216,226 Defnstate: 1,717,441,275,238,0,MIDM Reference: Schlesinger et at (1997) Variable Global_average_equiv Title: Global Average Equivalent Sensitivity Units: °C/W^2 Definition: (Sum((Regional_areas_6*Regional_6_sens),Regions_6)/Sum(Reg~~ ional_areas_6,Regions_6)) Nodelocation: 360,96 Nodesize: 60,40 Windstate: 1,151,163 Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,1,STAT Objective Normalized_regional_ Title: Normalized Regional Sensitivities Definition: (Regional_6_sens/Global_average_equiv) Nodelocation: 360,176 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,56,66,679,251,0,MEAN Aliases: Alias Normalized_regional1 Chance Unc_reg_sens Title: Uncertainty in Regional Sensitivity Estimates Description: The estimates of regional climate sensitivity by Schlesin~~ ger et al (1997) are uncertain. These are assumed to be correlated b~~ y sampling a single normal distribution and transforming this to matc~~ h the values obtained in the paper. Definition: Normal(0,1) Nodelocation: 88,104 Nodesize: 64,32 Reference: Schlesinger et at (1997) Chance Regional_6_smean Title: Regional (6) Sensitivities~ Means Units: °C/W^2 Description: These are the mean sensitivity measures generated by Schl~~ esinger et at (1997) by applying the 10x sulfate mask to various glob~~ al regions and then calculating the effective sensitivity of the glob~~ al average temperature. Definition: Table(Regions_6)(~ 0.749,0.678,0.467,0.735,0.559,0.585) Nodelocation: 88,176 Nodesize: 60,28 Windstate: 1,184,194 Defnstate: 1,743,239,247,237,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,376,386,416,303,0,MIDM Reference: Schlesinger et at (1997) Variable Regional_6_sens Title: Regional (6) Sensitivities Units: °C/W^2 Description: These are the sensitivity measures generated by Schlesing~~ er et at (1997) by applying the 10x sulfate mask to various global re~~ gions and then calculating the effective sensitivity of the global av~~ erage temperature. Definition: ((Regional_6_sstd*Unc_reg_sens)+Regional_6_smean) Nodelocation: 224,104 Nodesize: 60,28 Valuestate: 1,169,98,533,463,1,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:6~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:51~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Run,Regions_6] Close Calculated_regional_ Module Global_climate_dynam Title: Global Climate Dynamics Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 29 Apr, 1998 11:17 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 216,128 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,199,73,472,291,17 Nodecolor: 58978,52427,65535 Variable Five_year_response Title: Five year response Definition: 1-(G1^15) Nodelocation: 208,224 Nodesize: 48,20 Windstate: 1,428,351 Valuestate: 1,344,354,416,303,0,STAT Alias Delta_t1 Title: Delta T Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 80,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Delta_t Alias Tau_climate Title: Tau Climate Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 80,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Tau_climat1 Objective Global_deltat Title: Global Delta T Description: The expression for the dynamic climate system used in the~~ model is given by T(t) = Gamma1*T(t) + Gamma*R(t), where R(t) is the~~ radiative forcing. The equation below converts the above equation ~~ to suit match the 5 year time step of the model. Definition: Dynamic((temp_0+Scen_fill),((((g1^5)*Global_deltat[Time-1]~~ )+((g2*Lw_forcing[Time-0])*(((1-(g1^5))/(1-g1))-((g1/5)*(((1-(6*(g1^5~~ )))+(5*(g1^6)))/(1-(g1^2)))))))+(((g2*Lw_forcing[Time-1])*(g1/5))*(((~~ 1-(6*(g1^5)))+(5*(g1^6)))/(1-(g1^2)))))) Nodelocation: 280,184 Nodesize: 56,20 Windstate: 1,136,146 Valuestate: 1,90,96,629,488,0,STAT Aliases: Alias Global_delta_t Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:8~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Numberformat: 1,F,4,2,0,0 Variable G1 Title: Gamma1 Description: The expression for the dynamic climate system used in the~~ model is given by T(t) = Gamma1*T(t) + Gamma*R(t), where R(t) is the~~ radiative forcing. Gamma1 provides a measure of the speed of the cl~~ imate response. Definition: (1-(1/Tau_climat1)) Nodelocation: 208,128 Nodesize: 56,20 Valuestate: 1,340,298,416,303,0,SAMP Variable G2 Title: Gamma2 Description: The expression for the dynamic climate system used in the~~ model is given by T(t) = Gamma1*T(t) + Gamma*R(t), where R(t) is the~~ radiative forcing. Gamma2 provides a measure of the temperature res~~ ponse of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing. Definition: (Delta_t/(4.4*Tau_climat1)) Nodelocation: 280,32 Nodesize: 56,20 Windstate: 1,249,359 Valuestate: 1,374,363,416,303,0,MIDM Alias Change_in__lw_radiat Title: Change in ~ LW radiative~ forcing Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 80,184 Nodesize: 52,24 Original: Lw_forcing Variable Pole_equator_gradian Title: Change in Pole-Equator Temperature Gradiant Units: °C Description: Equator to 90°N temperature gradient consistant with the ~~ trend in global mean temperature. Definition: (Grad_t1)*(Global_deltat/Delta_t) Nodelocation: 376,96 Nodesize: 52,32 Windstate: 1,216,226 Valuestate: 1,64,55,651,387,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias Change_in_pole_equat Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Alias Grad_t2 Title: Grad T Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 80,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Grad_t1 Close Global_climate_dynam Module Climate_oscillations Title: Climate Oscillations and Existing Change Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Wed, Apr 29, 1998 6:14 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 216,40 Nodesize: 52,32 Diagstate: 1,320,111,450,243,17 Nodecolor: 58978,52427,65535 Chance Temp_0 Title: Temp Change~ 1850-1975 Units: °C Description: This is the estimated level of temperature change since p~~ re-industrial Times. This is scaled from a normalized distribution o~~ f the sampled values from the expert's estimated equilibrium climate ~~ sensitivity in order to make t0 and tn climate change trajectories mo~~ re consistant. Definition: 0.8*Delta_t/Max(sample(delta_t)) Nodelocation: 248,144 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,307,316 Valuestate: 1,56,66,419,486,0,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:10~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Variable A160_year_oscillatio Title: 160 Year Oscillation Definition: dynamic(Uncertainty_in_ampli*sin((time*180/Uncertainty_in_~~ perio)+15),~ Uncertainty_in_ampli*sin((time*180/Uncertainty_in_perio)+15)) Nodelocation: 248,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,53,42,623,377,1,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1960~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:10~ Xintervals:8~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Uncertainty_in_perio Title: Uncertainty in period Definition: 80 Nodelocation: 200,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,STAT Chance Uncertainty_in_ampli Title: Uncertainty in amplitude Definition: normal(.5,.1) Nodelocation: 312,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,0,STAT Close Climate_oscillations Close Elicited_c1 Objective Rits_concentrations Title: RITS Conc Units: ppbv Description: A place where the ghg concentrations can be looked at sim~~ ultaneously. Definition: Table(Species)(~ A_co2,A_ch4,A_n2o,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 328,48 Nodesize: 36,20 Valuestate: 1,85,40,579,546,0,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:300K~ Ymaximum:800K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Numberformat: 1,D,5,2,0,0 Close Atmospheric_composi1 Module Demographics___econo Title: Demographics~ & Economics Description: This submodule is a very simple presentation of economic ~~ growth, and the decision to invest in climate change mitigation activ~~ ities or absorb the costs of climate change. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Nov 1, 1991 9:57 AM Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 80,128,0 Nodesize: 60,36 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Diagstate: 1,268,181,432,173,17 Nodecolor: 65535,52425,39321 Diagramcolor: 65535,52425,39321 Fontstyle: Arial, 12 Module Economic_change Title: Economic~ Change Description: Economic growth is calculated here. There are feedbacks ~~ from the imposition of the carbon tax, the impact of fuel price hikes~~ on the economy, and market losses from climate change. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 19 Oct, 1994 17:03 Defaultsize: 48,16 Nodelocation: 320,56,0 Nodesize: 64,28 Diagstate: 1,73,43,468,243,23 Nodecolor: -1,-3,-13109 Fontstyle: Arial, 10 Objective Economic_activity_by Title: Economic Activity by Region Units: $(1990)/Yr Description: Pure growth in consumable income is modified by the money~~ spent to buy energy, and the inefficiency in tax recycling. Definition: Dynamic(Economic_trends, Economic_trends, Economic_trends,~~ Economic_trends, (If ((Economic_trends/Regional_populations)<200) Th~~ en (200*Regional_populations) Else Economic_trends),(If ((Economic_tr~~ ends/Regional_populations)<200) Then (200*Regional_populations) Else ~~ Economic_trends)) Nodelocation: 216,152,0 Nodesize: 52,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Windstate: 1,104,114 Valuestate: 1,81,48,615,369,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Al14, Alias Regional_economies2, Alias Regional_economies1~~ Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:2000~ Xmaximum:2025~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1.5T~ Zminimum:1975~ Zmaximum:2100~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Module Prescribed_potential Title: Historic GDP Data~ 1975-1990 Description: This is the Regional GDP levels expressed in $1990, witho~~ ut purchasing power parity correction. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 20 Oct, 1994 13:48 Nodelocation: 144,40,0 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Diagstate: 1,121,66,461,305,1 Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Chance Gdp_1990 Title: GDP 1990 Units: $ (1985) Description: Regional formal economies in Chain Index PWT 1985 interna~~ tional dollars. Definition: ((Uncertainty_in_initi*Table(Regions_12)(~ 4.98T,1.71T,4.54T,540G,220G,1.05T,490G,1.67T,1.51T,968G,285G,1.77T))+~~ Scen_fill) Nodelocation: 104,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,382,70 Defnstate: 1,277,206,198,304,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,248,258,475,307,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -510,-1,-28454 Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Reference: Social Indicators of Development (1996) Chance Gdp_1985 Title: GDP 1985 Units: $ (1985) Description: Regional formal economies in Chain Index PWT 1985 interna~~ tional dollars.~ Definition: ((Uncertainty_in_initi*Table(Regions_12)(~ 4.36T,1.54T,3.99T,1.88T,770G,870G,430G,1.26T,1.33T,633G,251G,1.42T))+~~ Scen_fill) Nodelocation: 104,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,407,52 Defnstate: 1,264,274,246,327,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -510,-1,-28454 Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Reference: Social Indicators of Development (1996) Chance Gdp_1980 Title: GDP 1980 Units: $ (1985) Description: Regional formal economies in Chain Index PWT 1985 interna~~ tional dollars. Definition: ((Uncertainty_in_initi*Table(Regions_12)(~ 3.82T,1.53T,3.72T,1.61T,650G,790G,420G,940G,960G,500G,216G,1.18T))+Sc~~ en_fill) Nodelocation: 104,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,229,52 Defnstate: 1,248,258,219,332,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -510,-1,-28454 Reference: Social Indicators of Development (1996) Chance Gdp_1975 Title: GDP 1975 Units: $(1985) Description: Regional formal economies in Chain Index PWT 1985 interna~~ tional dollars. Definition: ((Uncertainty_in_initi*Table(Regions_12)(~ 3.23T,1.16T,3.2T,1.34T,540G,640G,355G,738G,706G,339G,192G,938G))+Scen~~ _fill) Nodelocation: 104,48 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,40,50 Defnstate: 1,164,212,247,340,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -510,-1,-28454 Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Reference: Social Indicators of Development (1996)~ Variable Gdp_per_capita_1975 Title: gdp per capita 1975 Definition: (Gdp_1975/Pop_1975) Nodelocation: 256,48 Nodesize: 48,16 Valuestate: 1,103,131,497,309,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Variable Gdp_per_capita_1980 Title: gdp per capita 1980 Definition: (Gdp_1980/Pop_1980) Nodelocation: 256,88 Nodesize: 48,16 Valuestate: 1,215,119,563,327,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Variable Gdp_per_capita_1985 Title: gdp per capita 1985 Definition: (Gdp_1985/Pop_1985) Nodelocation: 256,128 Nodesize: 48,16 Valuestate: 1,436,120,556,347,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Variable Gdp_per_capita_1990 Title: gdp per capita 1990 Definition: (Gdp_1990/Pop_1990) Nodelocation: 256,168 Nodesize: 48,16 Valuestate: 1,298,308,516,322,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Chance Uncertainty_in_initi Title: Uncertainty in initial GDP Definition: (Evaluate_p(Normal(1,.02) , UF_Econ)) Nodelocation: 104,216 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM Close Prescribed_potential Variable Economic_trends Title: Economic Trends Units: $(1990)/Yr. Description: This is the point at which the trend in GNP is calculated~~ . Definition: Dynamic(Gdp_1975,Gdp_1980,Gdp_1985,Gdp_1990,~ (Economic_trends[Time-1]+Economics_of_policy+Economics_of_CC)*Econ_po~~ p_gr) Nodelocation: 216,104,0 Nodesize: 48,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,107,241 Valuestate: 1,67,45,632,434,1,STAT Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:0~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:40T~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Module Forces_of_ Title: Forces of Growth Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Tue, Jun 13, 1995 10:27 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 288,40,0 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,130,165,417,296,1 Chance Base_econo Title: Base Economic stochasticity Description: The global economy follows the general path stipulated, b~~ ut there are periodic ups and downs respresented by a global stochast~~ ic parameter. Definition: dynamic((Normal(1,1)),~ (2*(Normal(1,1))+Base_econo[time-1])/3) Nodelocation: 80,88 Nodesize: 48,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,206,236 Valuestate: 1,120,130,632,434,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias Base_economic_stocha Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:0~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:3~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Run] Variable Econ_unc_diversity Title: Diversity in Economic Uncertainty Description: There is uncertainty in the actual growth trajectories fo~~ r each region.~ Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then 1.444 Else (If (Choos~~ e_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then 0.84 Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B1') ~~ Then 1.252 Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then 0.96 Else Divers~~ ity_in_econom1)))) Nodelocation: 208,32 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,228,364 Defnstate: 1,242,281,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,73,82,574,375,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Diversity_in_economi Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:9~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:11~ Yminimum:0.8~ Ymaximum:1.2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:10~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Run,Regions_12] Variable Growthsen Title: Growth Scenario Units: % p.a. Description: This is the per capita growth rate as prescribed in the E~~ MF-14 exercise except for the uncertainty and stochasticity which hav~~ e been added in.~ Econ_uncer* Definition: (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Then Mean(Per_capita_gr) E~~ lse Per_capita_gr) Nodelocation: 208,184 Nodesize: 48,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,40,50 Defnstate: 1,40,50,773,538,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,76,162,416,303,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:1~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:10~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Objective Econ_pop_gr Title: Econ & Pop Growth Units: Growth in 5 years Definition: Dynamic((1+(0*Un_pop_gro)),(1+(0*Un_pop_gro)),(1+(0*Un_pop~~ _gro)),((((1+(Growthsen/100))^5)*(1+(Un_pop_gro/100)))*Labour_or_popu~~ lation)) Nodelocation: 208,232 Nodesize: 48,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,102,90 Valuestate: 1,46,43,737,510,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Econ_uncer Title: Econ Uncertainty Description: This is a combination of the uncertainties leading into e~~ con growth, created to allow for use of P_flag Definition: Dynamic(~ (Evaluate_p((Base_econo*Econ_unc_diversity) , UF_Econ)),~ (Evaluate_p((Base_econo*Econ_unc_diversity) , UF_Econ))) Nodelocation: 208,88 Nodesize: 48,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,136,146,568,414,1,SAMP Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0.8~ Ymaximum:1.2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Decision Labour_or_population Title: Labour or population? Description: With the full demographic model it is possible to track t~~ he available labour through time, rather than assume that the same fr~~ action of the population is available for work. The user by choosing~~ the structure of the demographics module will also invoke the calcul~~ ation of available labour, indexed so thatthe dependency ration of 19~~ 75=1. Definition: if Scenario_demographic ='YES' then Changes_in_available e~~ lse 1 Nodelocation: 72,232 Nodesize: 44,16 Windstate: 1,102,90 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Uncertainty_in_long_ Title: Uncertainty in Long term Growth Definition: Econ_unc_diversity-1 Nodelocation: 72,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,73,83,564,488,1,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:9~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:6~ Yminimum:-0.2~ Ymaximum:0.2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Run,Regions_12] Numberformat: 1,%,4,0,0,0 Chance Diversity_in_econom1 Title: Diversity in Economic Uncertainty Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ Normal(1,0.05),Normal(1,0.05),Normal(1,0.05),Normal(1,0.05),Normal(1,~~ 0.05),Normal(1,0.05),Normal(1,0.05),Normal(1,0.05),Normal(1,0.05),Nor~~ mal(1,0.05),Normal(1,0.05),Normal(1,0.05)) Nodelocation: 320,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Variable Per_capita_gr Title: per capita GDP Growth Units: % p.a. Description: This is the per capita growth rate as prescribed in the E~~ MF-14 exercise except for the uncertainty and stochasticity which hav~~ e been added in.~ Econ_uncer* Definition: Econ_uncer*Table(Time,Regions_12)(~ 2.18,3.75,2.15,2,2,3.75,3.75,2.5,2.71,2.24,2.18,2.18,~ 2.18,0,2.15,2,2,3.75,0,2.5,2.71,5,2.18,2.18,~ 2.18,0,1.5,0,0,0,0,2.5,2.71,5,2.18,2.18,~ 2.18,1.44,1,-5,-5,0,1.44,3,2.71,5,2.18,2.18,~ 2.18,1.44,1.5,-3,-3,1.44,1.44,3,2.71,4,2.18,2.18,~ 1.97,2.55,1.5,2,2,2.55,2.55,3,2.66,-5,1.97,0,~ 1.97,2.55,2.09,3.9,3.9,2.55,2.55,2.55,2.66,4,1.97,1.97,~ 1.97,2.55,2.09,3.9,3.9,2.55,2.55,2.55,2.66,4,1.97,1.97,~ 1.97,2.55,2.09,3.9,3.9,2.55,2.55,2.55,2.66,3,1.97,1.97,~ 1.97,2.55,2.09,3.9,3.9,2.55,2.55,2.55,2.66,3,1.97,1.97,~ 1.62,2.42,1.6,3.33,3.33,2.42,2.42,2.42,2.93,2.5,1.62,1.62,~ 1.62,2.42,1.6,3.33,3.33,2.42,2.42,2.42,2.93,2.5,1.62,1.62,~ 1.62,2.42,1.6,3.33,3.33,2.42,2.42,2.42,2.93,2,1.62,1.62,~ 1.62,2.42,1.6,3.33,3.33,2.42,2.42,2.42,2.93,2,1.62,1.62,~ 1.62,2.42,1.6,3.33,3.33,2.42,2.42,2.42,2.93,1.59,1.62,1.62,~ 1.14,2.38,1.14,1.89,1.89,2.38,2.38,2.38,2.89,1.13,1.14,1.14,~ 1.14,2.38,1.14,1.89,1.89,2.38,2.38,2.38,2.89,1.13,1.14,1.14,~ 1.14,2.38,1.14,1.89,1.89,2.38,2.38,2.38,2.89,1.13,1.14,1.14,~ 1.14,2.38,1.14,1.89,1.89,2.38,2.38,2.38,2.89,1.13,1.14,1.14,~ 1.14,2.38,1.14,1.89,1.89,2.38,2.38,2.38,2.89,1.13,1.14,1.14,~ 1.12,2.6,1.11,1.93,1.93,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.85,1.13,1.12,1.12,~ 1.12,2.6,1.11,1.93,1.93,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.85,1.13,1.12,1.12,~ 1.12,2.6,1.11,1.93,1.93,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.85,1.13,1.12,1.12,~ 1.12,2.6,1.11,1.93,1.93,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.85,1.13,1.12,1.12,~ 1.12,2.6,1.11,1.93,1.93,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.85,1.13,1.12,1.12,~ 0.8,2.6,0.8,1,1,2,2.6,2,2,0.8,0.8,0.8~ ) Nodelocation: 208,128 Nodesize: 48,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Defnstate: 1,40,50,773,538,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,76,162,489,441,1,SAMP Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:1~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:10~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Run] Close Forces_of_ Module Gnp_trend_summaries Title: GDP Trend Summaries Author: Hadi Date: Wed, Sep 4, 1996 12:17 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 368,104,0 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,112,75,479,379,17 Chance Regional__gdp_pc Title: Regional ~ GNP-pc Units: $(1990)/per capita Yr. Description: This is the per-capita income for the UN regions. Definition: Dynamic((Economic_activity_by/regional_populations),(Econo~~ mic_activity_by/regional_populations)) Nodelocation: 136,248 Nodesize: 48,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,136,146 Valuestate: 1,114,80,770,683,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Regional__gdp_pc1, Formnode Regional__gnp_pc Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Welfare_through_time Title: Welfare through time Description: This is used in the calulation of the raw fuel demand gro~~ wth. Please do not delete. Definition: Dynamic(0,((Economic_activity_by-Economic_activity_by[Time~~ -1])/Economic_activity_by[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 264,32 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,135,338 Valuestate: 1,72,82,610,494,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:8~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Gwp_per_ca Title: GWP per Capita Units: $(1990)/Yr. Definition: Dynamic((Sum(Economic_activity_by,Regions_12)/Global_popul~~ ation),(Sum(Economic_activity_by,Regions_12)/Global_population)) Nodelocation: 168,64 Nodesize: 48,16 Valuestate: 1,56,66,487,405,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Growth_in_2 Title: Growth in GWP per Capita Units: $(1990)/Yr. Definition: Dynamic(Gwp_per_ca/Gwp_per_ca1, Gwp_per_ca/Gwp_per_ca1) Nodelocation: 168,128 Nodesize: 48,16 Valuestate: 1,6,42,416,531,0,SAMP Graphsetup: Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:2~ Xmaximum:10~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:0~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Reformval: [Intervention,Run] Chance Gwp_per_ca1 Title: GWP per capita 1975 Units: $(1990)/Yr. Definition: dynamic(Gwp_per_ca, Gwp_per_ca1[time-1]) Nodelocation: 56,96 Nodesize: 48,16 Chance Cumulative_gdp_growt Title: Cumulative Welfare growth Definition: Dynamic((1+Welfare_through_time),((1+Welfare_through_time)~~ *Cumulative_gdp_growt[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 392,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1101,-3251,-15995 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Gdp_no_impacts Title: gdp no impacts Definition: (Economic_activity_by+Market_impacts_by_r1) Nodelocation: 56,24 Nodesize: 48,16 Chance Discounted_gdp_absce Title: discounted gdp abscent impacts Definition: Sum((5*Sum((Gdp_no_impacts*((1-Discount)^(Time-1990))),Tim~~ e)),Regions_12) Nodelocation: 56,96 Nodesize: 48,16 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:4~ Yminimum:1.19Q~ Ymaximum:1.2Q~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Intervention,Run] Numberformat: 1,D,6,2,0,0 Chance Discounted_gdp Title: discounted gdp Definition: Sum((5*Sum((Economic_activity_by*((1-Discount)^(Time-1990)~~ )),Time)),Regions_12) Nodelocation: 56,160 Nodesize: 48,16 Windstate: 1,214,180 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:4~ Yminimum:1.19Q~ Ymaximum:1.2Q~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Intervention,Run] Numberformat: 1,D,6,2,0,0 Objective Gross_world_product Title: Gross World Product Units: $(1990)/Yr Definition: Sum(Economic_activity_by,Regions_12) Nodelocation: 56,200 Nodesize: 44,16 Windstate: 1,228,313 Valuestate: 1,72,123,646,433,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Gross_world_product1, Formnode Gross_world_product2 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:800T~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Gnppc_ratios Title: GNPpc Ratios Definition: (Regional__gdp_pc/Regional__gdp_pc[Regions_12=Who_is_riche~~ st_]) Nodelocation: 248,248 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,134,69,593,527,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Who_is_richest_ Title: Who is richest? Definition: Argmax(Regional__gdp_pc,Regions_12) Nodelocation: 184,208 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,183,72,548,493,0,SAMP Reformval: [Run,Time] Chance Economic_trends1 Title: Economic Trends Units: $(1990)/Yr. Description: This is the point at which the trend in GNP is calculated~~ . Definition: Dynamic(Gdp_1975,Gdp_1980,Gdp_1985,Gdp_1990, (Economic_tre~~ nds1[Time-1]+0.2*Economics_of_policy)*Econ_pop_gr) Nodelocation: 72,312 Nodesize: 48,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,367,410 Valuestate: 1,116,161,632,434,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:0~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:40T~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Objective Gnp_through_time Title: GNP through time Description: This is used in the calulation of the raw fuel demand gro~~ wth. Please do not delete. Definition: Dynamic(0,((Economic_activity_b1-Economic_activity_b1[Time~~ -1])/Economic_activity_b1[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 296,312 Nodesize: 48,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,280,290 Valuestate: 1,72,82,610,494,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:8~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Objective Cumulative_gdp_grow1 Title: Cumulative GDP growth Definition: Dynamic((1+Gnp_through_time),((1+Gnp_through_time)*Cumulat~~ ive_gdp_grow1[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 408,312 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,440,450 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1101,-3251,-15995 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Objective Economic_activity_b1 Title: Economic Activity by Region Units: $(1990)/Yr Description: Pure growth in consumable income is modified by the money~~ spent to buy energy, and the inefficiency in tax recycling. Definition: Dynamic(Economic_trends1, Economic_trends1, Economic_trend~~ s1, Economic_trends1, (If ((Economic_trends1/Regional_populations)<20~~ 0) Then (200*Regional_populations) Else Economic_trends1),(If ((Econo~~ mic_trends1/Regional_populations)<200) Then (200*Regional_populations~~ ) Else Economic_trends1)) Nodelocation: 184,312 Nodesize: 52,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,456,466 Valuestate: 1,81,48,615,369,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-582,-9453 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:2000~ Xmaximum:2025~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1.5T~ Zminimum:1975~ Zmaximum:2100~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Welfare_cf_gnp Title: Welfare cf GNP Definition: [Welfare_through_time,Gnp_through_time] Indexvals: ['Welfare through time','GNP through time'] Nodelocation: 368,120 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,8,44,1006,714,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Self] Close Gnp_trend_summaries Variable Economics_of_policy Title: Economic Impacts of policy Definition: dynamic(Unc_un_scen, -((Abatement_expediture[Time-1]+(Dead~~ _weight_tax[Time-1]+Dead_weight_energy[Time-1])))) Nodelocation: 56,88,0 Nodesize: 48,20 Valuestate: 1,248,258,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Economics_of_cc Title: Economic Impacts of CC Definition: dynamic(Unc_un_scen, -Market_impacts_by_r1[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 56,128,0 Nodesize: 48,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close Economic_change Module Demographic_change Title: Demographic~ Change Description: Demographic change is calculated here. Both the change i~~ n birth and death rates are linked to ecnoomic growth. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 19 Oct, 1994 17:03 Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 96,56,0 Nodesize: 64,28 Diagstate: 1,194,200,452,236,1 Nodecolor: -1,-3,-13109 Diagramcolor: 65535,52425,39321 Function S_growth(x0, g, max, time) Title: S_growth Definition: max/(1+(max/x0-1)*exp(-g*time)) Nodelocation: 80,360 Nodesize: 48,24 Paramnames: x0,g,max,time Objective Regional_populations Title: Regional Populations Description: Here the model for population projection is chosen Definition: if Scenario_demographic = 'YES' then regional_pop_complex ~~ else regional_pop_simple Nodelocation: 208,112 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,83,349 Valuestate: 1,44,43,537,390,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias Un_regional_populat1, Alias Un_regional_populati, Formnode~~ Regional_population1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:200M~ Ymaximum:500M~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Module Simple_model Title: Simple Model Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 9 Nov, 1997 13:05 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 208,48 Nodesize: 148,20 Diagstate: 1,61,61,396,332,17 Module A975_1990 Title: 1975-1990 Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 19 Oct, 1994 17:03 Nodelocation: 64,64 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,168,164,416,215,1 Chance Pop_1975 Title: Pop 1975 Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 240M,323M,353M,409M,166M,220M,328M,755M,952M,154M,17M,112M) Nodelocation: 232,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,351,105 Defnstate: 1,349,268,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Exponentia Title: Exponential Growth 1975-1990 Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 1.007,1.026,1.007,1.007,1.01,1.031,1.03,1.021,1.015,1.012,1.012,1.012~~ ) Nodelocation: 112,128 Nodesize: 48,24 Defnstate: 1,372,211,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Pop_1980 Title: Pop 1980 Definition: (Pop_1975*(Exponentia^5)) Nodelocation: 232,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,352,169,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Pop_1985 Title: Pop 1985 Definition: (Pop_1975*(Exponentia^10)) Nodelocation: 232,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Pop_1990 Title: Pop 1990 Definition: (Pop_1975*(Exponentia^15)) Nodelocation: 232,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Regions_12,Statslabels] Chance Init_pop_unc Title: Initial Population Uncertainty Description: The initial population figures are uncertain. There is a~~ generous assumption that the coefficient of variation is 1%. Definition: Evaluate_p(Normal(1,0.01), UF_pop) Nodelocation: 112,40 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,MIDM Close A975_1990 Module A990_onwar Title: 1990 Onwards Description: In this module a simple (no age structure) demographic mo~~ del has been constructed. The models response is controlled by the r~~ elative magnitude of the birth rate and the death rate. These relati~~ ve magnitudes are different as the initial conditions. They can chan~~ ge through time and their final values are uncertain. This alone giv~~ es some flexibility in simulating population growth and decline. How~~ ever, the most effective manner in which population dynamics are affe~~ cted is in the relative time-rate at which the birth and death rates ~~ are changed. This is controlled by the delta death and delta birth o~~ bjects. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Tue, 18 Oct, 1994 9:21 PM Defaultsize: 44,16 Nodelocation: 64,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,340,92,437,144,1 Diagramcolor: -17401,-79,-13230 Fontstyle: Arial, 10 Module Death_rate Title: Death Rates Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sat, Nov 26, 1994 6:16 PM Defaultsize: 44,16 Nodelocation: 304,48 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,56,66,316,167,1 Diagramcolor: 21288,26105,-22620 Chance Deaths8 Title: deaths Description: Death rates for each time period and region.~ Dynamic(Initial_de8,(1/S_growth((1/Initial_de8),Delta_de8,(1/Final_de~~ ath_rates),(Time-1975)))) Definition: Dynamic(Initial_de8, Initial_de8, Initial_de8, Initial_de~~ 8, Initial_de8, if time < 2040 then Deaths8[time-1]-(Initial_de8-Fina~~ l_death_rates)/11 else final_death_rates) Nodelocation: 184,56 Nodesize: 44,16 Windstate: 1,241,264 Valuestate: 1,30,49,824,578,0,STAT Chance Initial_de8 Title: Initial Deaths Description: This is the equivalent death rate for each region as perc~~ ent per year for 1975. Definition: normal(1,1m)*Table(Regions_12)(~ 2.5,4.5,2.5,3.5,4,5.5,6,5,4,2.5,2.5,2.5) Nodelocation: 72,24 Nodesize: 44,16 Defnstate: 1,268,288,211,304,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Final_death_rates Title: final death rates Description: This is the equivalent target death rate for each region ~~ as percent per year for 2100. The zpg condition is a death rate clos~~ e to 2. Lower numbers lead to continued population growth, higher nu~~ mbers population collapse.~ (Evaluate_p((Uncertaint_deaths) , UF_pop)) Definition: Triangular( 3.5, 3.8, 4 ) Nodelocation: 72,80 Nodesize: 44,16 Windstate: 1,328,336 Valuestate: 1,81,93,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias Final_death_rates1 Close Death_rate Module Birth_rate Title: Birth Rates Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sat, Nov 26, 1994 6:16 PM Defaultsize: 44,16 Nodelocation: 104,48 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,72,82,359,200,1 Diagramcolor: -13412,13030,-31025 Chance Births8 Title: births Description: Birth rates for each time period and region.~ Dynamic(Initial_bi8,Initial_bi8,Initial_bi8,Initial_bi8,(1/S_growth((~~ 1/Initial_bi8),Delta_bi8,(1/Final_birth_rates),(Time-1990))))~ dynamic(initial_bi8, births8[time-1]-(initial_bi8-final_birth_rates)/~~ 25) Definition: dynamic(initial_bi8, initial_bi8, initial_bi8, initial_bi8~~ , initial_bi8, if time < 2060 then births8[time-1]-(initial_bi8-fina~~ l_birth_rates)/13 else final_birth_rates) Nodelocation: 240,64 Nodesize: 44,16 Windstate: 1,217,246 Valuestate: 1,299,81,475,424,1,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:8~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Chance Initial_bi8 Title: Initial Births Description: This is the equivalent birth rate for each region as perc~~ ent per year for 1975. Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 5,10,5,8,10,12,12,12,9,7,7,5)*normal(1.3, 1m) Nodelocation: 128,40 Nodesize: 44,16 Windstate: 1,296,304 Defnstate: 1,247,229,248,298,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Final_birth_rates Title: Final birth rates Description: This is the equivalent target birth rate for each region ~~ as percent per year for 2100. The zpg condition is a birth rate clos~~ e to 2. Higher numbers lead to continued population growth, lower nu~~ mbers population collapse.~ (Evaluate_p((Final_birth_unc+Final_birth_div) , UF_pop)) Definition: Triangular( 1.75, 4, 7.5 ) Nodelocation: 128,96 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias Final_birth_rates1 Reformval: [Regions_12,Statslabels] Close Birth_rate Close A990_onwar Objective Regional_pop_simple Title: Population Scenarios Description: Regional populations through time. Definition: (If ((Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A1') Or (Choose_an_ipcc_scena=~~ 'B1')) Then Min_pop Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='B2') Then Mean_po~~ p Else (If (Choose_an_ipcc_scena='A2') Then Max_pop Else Regional_pop~~ ulation_))) Nodelocation: 304,104 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,200,210 Valuestate: 1,54,106,537,390,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:200M~ Ymaximum:500M~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Objective Regional_population_ Title: Regional Population Calculations Definition: Dynamic((Pop_1975+(0*(1+((Births8-Deaths8)/100)))), (Pop_1~~ 980+(0*(1+((Births8-Deaths8)/100)))),(Pop_1985+(0*(1+((Births8-Deaths~~ 8)/100)))),(Pop_1990+(0*(1+((Births8-Deaths8)/100)))),(Regional_popul~~ ation_[Time-1]*(1+((Births8-Deaths8)/100)))) Nodelocation: 176,104 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,322,106 Valuestate: 1,91,80,438,361,1,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:500M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Decision Choose_an_ipcc_scena Title: Choose an IPCC Scenario or the Full ICAM Simulation Definition: Choice(Ipcc_1998_scenarios,5) Nodelocation: 304,200 Nodesize: 56,32 Windstate: 1,315,203 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Scenario1 Chance Min_pop Title: Min pop Definition: min(sample(Regional_population_), run) Nodelocation: 176,176 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Mean_pop Title: Mean pop Definition: mean(sample(Regional_population_)) Nodelocation: 176,208 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Max_pop Title: Max pop Definition: max(sample(Regional_population_), run) Nodelocation: 176,240 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Objective Global_pop1 Title: Global Pop Definition: sum(Regional_population_, regions_12) Nodelocation: 248,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,404,48,417,553,0,STAT Close Simple_model Module Population3 Title: Population Statistics Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sat, Nov 26, 1994 6:16 PM Nodelocation: 360,112 Nodesize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,317,138,448,284,1 Objective Two_region_pop Title: Two Regional Populations Description: Global population aggregated to the level of MIC and LIC.~~ UN regions 1 and 2 make up MIC, remaining regions make up LIC. Definition: Array(Regions_2,[Sum((Regional_populations*Mic),Regions_12~~ ),Sum((Regional_populations*Lic),Regions_12)]) Nodelocation: 368,152 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,2,39 Valuestate: 1,61,113,587,422,1,CONF Objective Global_population Title: Global Population Definition: Dynamic(Sum(Regional_populations,Regions_12),Sum(Regional_~~ populations,Regions_12)) Nodelocation: 72,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,66,94,538,527,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Global_sum1, Formnode Global_population1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20G~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Variable World_pop_1975 Title: World Total 1975 Definition: Sum(Pop_1975,Regions_12) Nodelocation: 80,200 Nodesize: 52,20 Objective Pop_g_75_t Title: Pop Growth Since 1975 Definition: Dynamic(1,(Global_population/World_pop_1975)) Nodelocation: 152,152 Nodesize: 48,20 Valuestate: 1,126,103,614,432,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:2~ Xmaximum:4.5~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:0~ Zmaximum:0~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Variable Un_pop_gro Title: UN Pop Growth Rate Units: % per five year period Definition: Dynamic(Init_un_pop_growth,((100*(Regional_populations-Re~~ gional_populations[Time-1]))/Regional_populations[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 192,40 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,76,41,645,351,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1.192~ Ymaximum:48.81~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Init_un_pop_growth Title: Initial UN-Pop Growth Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 3.549,13.69,3.549,3.549,5.101,16.49,15.93,10.95,7.728,6.146,6.146,6.1~~ 46) Nodelocation: 72,40 Nodesize: 44,24 Variable Cum_pop_gro Title: Cumulative Pop Growth Definition: dynamic((1+UN_pop_gro/100), (1+UN_pop_gro/100)*Cum_pop_gro~~ [time-1]) Nodelocation: 312,40 Nodesize: 52,24 Valuestate: 1,104,114,556,603,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Mic Title: MIC Description: These are the more industrialized nations Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 1,0,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,1,1,1) Nodelocation: 256,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable Lic Title: LIC Description: These are the less industrialized nations Definition: 1- mic Nodelocation: 256,200 Nodesize: 52,20 Close Population3 Module Dynamic_demographic_ Title: Dynamic Demographic Model Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 9 Nov, 1997 13:05 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 208,176 Nodesize: 148,20 Diagstate: 1,93,54,590,450,17 Index Age_groups Title: Age Groups Units: Years Description: This is the index for age classes. Definition: Sequence( 0, 90, 5 ) Nodelocation: 440,352 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,232,242 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,MIDM Nodefont: Arial, 10 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: [0,5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45,50,55,60,65,70~~ ,75,80,85,90]} Variable Fertility Title: Fertility Description: This is the initial state of fertility expressed in terms~~ of a multiplier over the female population in the model at each age ~~ group. Definition: TFR*Initial_fertility1/Total_fertility Nodelocation: 168,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Defnstate: 1,31,110,613,207,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,8,44,782,546,1,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Variable Mortality Title: Mortality Description: This is the mortality of each age group expressed as a mu~~ ltiplier for the population in each age cohort, by gender. Definition: dynamic(initial_mortality1, (mortality[time-1]*Mortality_a~~ djustment)) Nodelocation: 448,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Defnstate: 1,63,142,526,266,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,96,118,667,394,1,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Reformval: [Age_groups,Time] Chance Births Title: Births Definition: Sum(((0.5/1.04)*Demographic_dist*Fertility),Age_groups) Nodelocation: 168,176,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,79,67,721,345,1,STAT Nodefont: Arial, 10 Chance Deaths Title: Deaths Definition: Sum((Demographic_dist*Mortality),Age_groups) Nodelocation: 448,176 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Arial, 10 Objective Population_gender Title: Population by gender Definition: Sum(Demographic_dist,Age_groups) Nodelocation: 344,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,250,99,416,303,1,MIDM Nodefont: Arial, 10 Constant Ages Title: Ages Definition: age_groups+2.5 Nodelocation: 520,352 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,40,50,373,496,0,MIDM Nodefont: Arial, 10 Module Demographic_model Title: Demographics Model Author: Hadi Date: Wed, Mar 19, 1997 10:54 Nodelocation: 296,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,314,175,460,309,17 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Variable Pop_0 Title: Pop 0 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 1), births[time-1~~ ]) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_5 Title: Pop 5 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(I_population1,Age_groups,2),(Pop_0[Time-1]*(~~ 1-(IM2/1000)))) Nodelocation: 48,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,152,323 Variable Pop_10 Title: Pop 10 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 3), Pop_5[time-1]~~ *slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 2)) Nodelocation: 48,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_15 Title: Pop 15 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 4), Pop_10[time-1~~ ]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 3)) Nodelocation: 48,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_20 Title: Pop 20 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 5), Pop_15[time-1~~ ]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 4)) Nodelocation: 48,120 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_25 Title: Pop 25 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 6), Pop_20[time-1~~ ]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 5)) Nodelocation: 48,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_30 Title: Pop 30 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 7), Pop_25[time-1~~ ]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 6)) Nodelocation: 48,168 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_35 Title: Pop 35 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 8), Pop_30[time-1~~ ]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 7)) Nodelocation: 48,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_40 Title: Pop 40 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 9), Pop_35[time-1~~ ]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 8)) Nodelocation: 48,216 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_45 Title: Pop 45 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 10), Pop_40[time-~~ 1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 9)) Nodelocation: 48,240 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_50 Title: Pop 50 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 11), Pop_45[time-~~ 1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 10)) Nodelocation: 136,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_55 Title: Pop 55 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 12), Pop_50[time-~~ 1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 11)) Nodelocation: 136,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_60 Title: Pop 60 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 13), Pop_55[time-~~ 1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 12)) Nodelocation: 136,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_65 Title: Pop 65 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 14), Pop_60[time-~~ 1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 13)) Nodelocation: 136,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_70 Title: Pop 70 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 15), Pop_65[time-~~ 1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 14)) Nodelocation: 136,120 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_75 Title: Pop 75 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 16), Pop_70[time-~~ 1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 15)) Nodelocation: 136,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_80 Title: Pop 80 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 17), Pop_75[time-~~ 1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 16)) Nodelocation: 136,168 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_85 Title: Pop 85 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 18), Pop_80[time-~~ 1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 17)) Nodelocation: 136,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Pop_90 Title: Pop 90 Definition: dynamic(slice(I_population1, age_groups, 19), Pop_85[time~~ -1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 18)+~ Pop_90[time-1]*slice(1-Mortality, age_groups, 19)) Nodelocation: 136,216 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Pop_below_15 Title: Pop below 15 Description: This is the sum of the population below age 15. Definition: (Pop_0+Pop_5+Pop_10) Nodelocation: 264,40 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Pop_above_65 Title: Pop above 65 Definition: (Pop_65+Pop_70+Pop_75+Pop_80+~ Pop_85+Pop_90) Nodelocation: 264,136 Nodesize: 44,20 Module Life_expectancy_modu Title: Life Expectancy Module Author: Hadi Date: Tue, Jul 15, 1997 10:18 PM Nodelocation: 384,128 Nodesize: 56,36 Diagstate: 1,120,130,449,243,17 Chance Le1 Title: Probability of Survival to a given age Definition: Cumproduct((1-mortality), age_groups) Nodelocation: 120,24 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,248,131,515,440,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Chance Crossing_p__5 Title: Crossing p=.5 Definition: If Le1 > 0.5 then ages else 0 Nodelocation: 120,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,283,107,416,303,1,MIDM Chance Lex Title: Life Expentancy ~ at birth Description: Population weighted average of age of cohorts older than ~~ 0 years. Definition: Argmax(Crossing_p__5,Age_groups) Nodelocation: 88,136 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,295,48,548,488,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1950~ Xmaximum:2200~ Yminimum:60~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Chance Above Title: Above Definition: Le1[age_groups=Lex]-.5 Nodelocation: 48,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,405,44,416,303,1,MIDM Chance Below Title: Below Definition: .5-Le1[age_groups=Lex+5] Nodelocation: 120,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,282,166,416,303,1,MIDM Close Life_expectancy_modu Chance All_geriatrics Title: All geriatrics Definition: Sum(Pop_above_65,Regions_12) Nodelocation: 264,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Demographic_model Objective Demographic_dist Title: Demographics Definition: dynamic(I_population1, array(age_groups,~ [pop_0, Pop_5, Pop_10, ~ Pop_15, Pop_20, Pop_25, ~ Pop_30, Pop_35, Pop_40,~ Pop_45, Pop_50, Pop_55, ~ Pop_60, Pop_65, Pop_70, ~ Pop_75, Pop_80, Pop_85,~ Pop_90])) Nodelocation: 264,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,185,99,573,487,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:0~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:80M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Nodefont: Arial, 10 Objective Population Title: Population Definition: Sum(Demographic_dist,Age_groups) Nodelocation: 344,208 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,96,58,738,338,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1G~ Zminimum:0.1~ Zmaximum:0.9~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.1,0.5,0.9]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Objective Dependancy_ratio Title: Dependancy Ratio Description: Ratio of population 0-15 and 60+ to the working populatio~~ n assumed to be the ages in between. Definition: ((Pop_below_15+Pop_above_65)/(Population-(Pop_below_15+Pop~~ _above_65))) Nodelocation: 344,248 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,184,98,574,488,1,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0.5~ Ymaximum:2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Objective Life_expectancy Title: Life Expectancy Definition: lex+5*above/(above+below) Nodelocation: 264,248 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,51,45,627,544,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1950~ Xmaximum:2200~ Yminimum:60~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Nodefont: Arial, 10 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Objective Normalized_demograph Title: Normalized Demographics Definition: Demographic_dist/Population_gender Nodelocation: 264,208 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,151,62,609,507,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.125~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Nodefont: Arial, 10 Reformval: [Age_groups,Undefined] Module Tfr1 Title: TFR Author: Hadi Date: Mon, Jul 21, 1997 1:23 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 168,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,155,109,467,390,17 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Chance Total_fertility Title: Total Fertility Description: Total fertility is the sum of children born to the averag~~ e woman. It maybe that this should be weighted by the number of wome~~ n in each age group. The difference would be slight for a zpg popula~~ tion profile and could be significant for a rapidly growing populatio~~ n. Definition: sum(Initial_fertility1, age_groups) Nodelocation: 320,208 Nodesize: 32,24 Valuestate: 1,190,145,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 9,-13109,1 Objective Tfr Title: TFR Definition: if time > 1990 then ifall Unbounded_tfr < 1.5 then 1.5 els~~ e Unbounded_tfr else Historic_TFR Nodelocation: 176,152 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,125,204 Valuestate: 1,96,48,577,515,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:1~ Ymaximum:5~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.01,0.05,0.33,0.5,0.67,0.95,0.99]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Beta_sdldiff Title: beta~ SDLDIFF Definition: Normal( -0.38, 0.09 ) Nodelocation: 248,56 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Beta_u Title: beta U Definition: Normal( -0.033, 0.005 ) Nodelocation: 88,56 Nodesize: 40,12 Chance Beta_flp Title: beta FLP Definition: Normal( -0.1, 0.018 ) Nodelocation: 168,48 Nodesize: 36,12 Chance Intercept Title: Intercept Definition: Normal( 6.8, 0.46 ) Nodelocation: 72,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,152,196 Defnstate: 1,392,262,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Beta_urbdiff Title: beta~ urbDIFF Definition: Normal( 0.011, 0.006 ) Nodelocation: 304,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Beta_flpdiff Title: beta~ FLPDIFF Definition: Normal( -0.016, 0.009 ) Nodelocation: 304,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Unbounded_tfr Title: Unbounded TFR Definition: (Intercept+(Beta_u*Urbanization)+(Beta_flp*Flp_dynamics)+(~~ Beta_sdldiff*Diff_ln_stdliv)+(Beta_urbdiff*Diff_urban)+(Beta_flpdiff*~~ Diff_flp)) Nodelocation: 176,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Intercept1 Title: Intercept Definition: Normal( 6.8, 0.46 ) Nodelocation: 72,152 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,392,262,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,0,STAT Variable Historic_tfr Title: Historic TFR Definition: Table(Time,Regions_12)(~ 2.698,4.055,3.056,3.227,2.802,5.117,4.094,4.908,3.899,4.201,2.575,2.3~~ 74,~ 2.32,3.659,2.847,3.113,2.612,4.904,3.996,4.737,3.685,3.972,2.276,2.31~~ ,~ 2.101,3.318,2.667,3.005,2.467,4.662,3.892,4.561,3.523,3.75,2.064,2.25~~ 8,~ 1.99,3.022,2.52,2.906,2.355,4.393,3.784,4.382,3.386,3.536,1.936,2.217~~ ,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 176,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Tfr1 Module Le2 Title: LE Author: Hadi Date: Mon, Jul 21, 1997 2:55 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 448,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,145,54,476,291,17 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Chance Beta_int Title: Intercept Definition: Normal( 78.2, 5.5 ) Nodelocation: 72,40 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Beta_sdl1 Title: beta SDL Definition: Normal( 2.3, 0.5 ) Nodelocation: 72,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Beta_lnphys1 Title: beta lnPhys Definition: Normal( -4.1, 0.4 ) Nodelocation: 72,120 Nodesize: 44,20 Objective Le Title: LE Definition: if time <1995 then Historic_LE else if unbounded_le > 85 t~~ hen 85 else unbounded_le Nodelocation: 192,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,83,105,466,416,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:40~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.33,0.5,0.67,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Rle Title: Round LE Definition: Round( le/5) Nodelocation: 296,88 Nodesize: 24,20 Valuestate: 1,283,147,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Dle Title: dle Definition: (Le-(Rle*5)) Nodelocation: 296,136 Nodesize: 24,20 Valuestate: 1,121,130,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Chance Mortality_adjustment Title: Mortality adjustment Definition: ifall age_groups = Leindex1*5 then 1/(1+dle1) else leblank~~ Nodelocation: 400,224 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,136,51,489,528,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Age_groups] Chance Leindex1 Title: leindex Definition: (If (Dle<0) Then (Rle-1) Else Rle) Nodelocation: 368,88 Nodesize: 24,20 Windstate: 1,41,210 Valuestate: 1,136,145,246,290,0,MIDM Chance Dle1 Title: dle Definition: le - leindex1*5 Nodelocation: 424,24 Nodesize: 24,20 Chance Leblank Title: LEblank Definition: (Ifall ((Age_groups<>-1) Or (Regions_12<>'arctic')) Then 1~~ Else 1) Nodelocation: 216,224 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,184,194,350,392,0,MIDM Chance Beta_physdiff1 Title: beta physdiff Definition: Normal( 0.56, 0.11 ) Nodelocation: 72,200 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Beta_sdldiff1 Title: beta sdldiff Definition: Normal( 1.1, 0.2 ) Nodelocation: 72,160 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Unbounded_le Title: Unbounded LE Definition: (Beta_int+(Beta_sdl1*Ln_of_stdliv)+(Beta_lnphys1*Lnphysdy~~ n)+(Beta_sdldiff1*Diff_ln_stdliv)+(Beta_physdiff1*Diff_phys)) Nodelocation: 192,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Historic_le Title: Historic LE Definition: Table(Time,Regions_12)(~ 72.85,64.77,71.45,67.47,69.77,59.33,52.12,55.49,63.2,59.54,71.03,70.2~~ 2,~ 73.92,66.04,72.47,69.2,70.12,59.98,53.25,58.03,64.5,60.6,72.69,71.3,~ 74.64,67.12,73.31,70.33,70.45,60.59,54.2,59.92,65.7,61.61,73.73,72.23~~ ,~ 75.18,68.08,74.01,71.16,70.77,61.16,55.03,61.47,66.8,62.58,74.47,73.0~~ 5,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 192,152 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Le2 Objective Global_pop Title: Global Pop Definition: Sum(Population,Regions_12) Nodelocation: 304,288 Nodesize: 96,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,101,101,630,463,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:4G~ Ymaximum:20G~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:5~ Yintervals:8~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.1,0.33,0.5,0.67,0.9]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Module Im Title: IM Author: Hadi Date: Mon, Jul 21, 1997 10:38 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 296,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,231,214,475,270,17 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Chance Beta_lnphys Title: beta lnPhys Definition: Normal( 17, 1 ) Nodelocation: 160,40 Nodesize: 36,12 Chance Beta_physdiff Title: beta~ physDIFF Definition: Normal( -23, 4 ) Nodelocation: 352,96 Nodesize: 40,16 Chance Beta_sdldiff2 Title: beta~ SDLDIFF Definition: Normal( -25.7, 6.2 ) Nodelocation: 272,40 Nodesize: 40,16 Variable Unboundedim Title: unbounded IM Definition: ((Beta_lnsdl*Ln_of_stdliv)+(Beta_lnphys*Lnphysdyn)+(Beta_s~~ dldiff2*Diff_ln_stdliv)+(Beta_physdiff*Diff_phys)) Nodelocation: 208,136 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,259,240 Valuestate: 1,146,103,577,515,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:6~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.33,0.5,0.67,0.95]~ Chance Beta_lnsdl Title: beta lnSDL Definition: Normal( -10.3, 1 ) Nodelocation: 80,80 Nodesize: 36,12 Objective Im2 Title: IM Definition: if time < 1995 then Historic_IM else ifall unboundedIM < 7~~ then 7 else unboundedIM Nodelocation: 208,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,175,129,577,515,1,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:6~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.33,0.5,0.67,0.95]~ Variable Historic_im Title: Historic IM Definition: Table(Time,Regions_12)(~ 19.89,51.12,21.81,48.44,27.81,73,106.8,98.72,53.28,67.92,32.37,25.23,~~ ~ 13.97,44.46,16.69,34.72,26.15,69.96,100.8,81.11,47.16,63.11,19.36,20.~~ 18,~ 11.24,39.01,13.58,27.53,24.63,67.18,96.03,70.54,41.68,58.58,14,16.39,~~ ~ 9.891,34.41,11.51,22.87,23.24,64.59,91.97,62.64,36.67,54.27,11.35,13.~~ 77,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 208,216 Nodesize: 44,20 Close Im Objective A__over_65 Title: % over 65 Definition: all_geriatrics/Global_pop*100 Nodelocation: 304,320 Nodesize: 96,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,196,46,526,349,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:30~ Zminimum:0.1~ Zmaximum:0.9~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.1,0.5,0.9]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Module Drivers Title: Drivers Author: epp Date: Wed, Aug 27, 1997 11:04 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 304,16 Nodesize: 188,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,48,47,550,265,17 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Objective Urbanization Title: Urbanization Dynamics Units: % Definition: (Max_urban*Logistic2((Urbanization1/Max_urban),Evolution_r~~ ate2,1,((Time-1975)/5))) Nodelocation: 96,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,113,269,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,135,177,585,409,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Objective Flp_dynamics Title: FLP~ Dynamics Units: % Definition: (25*Logistic2((Flp1/25),Evolution_rate1,1,((Time-1975)/5))~~ ) Nodelocation: 464,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,95,200,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,172,753,322,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:40~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Function Logistic2(X0, growth, Xmax, TIME) Title: logistic Description: The initial condition is X0,~ The final assympotic condition is Xmax~ Growth rate is growth~ The time interval is TIME Definition: xmax/(1+(xmax/x0-1)*exp(-growth*time)) Nodelocation: 296,200 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,102,90 Paramnames: X0,growth,Xmax,TIME Objective Ln_of_stdliv Title: Ln of STDLIV Definition: ln(Stdliv_dynamics) Nodelocation: 96,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,78,148,634,414,0,MIDM Objective Diff_ln_stdliv Title: Diff Ln STDLIV Definition: Dynamic(Initialdiff_ln_sdl,(Ln_of_stdliv-Ln_of_stdliv[Time~~ -1])) Nodelocation: 96,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,72,366 Valuestate: 1,74,99,572,405,0,MIDM Objective Diff_flp Title: Diff FLP Definition: dynamic(Initialdiffflp, Flp_dynamics - Flp_dynamics[time-1~~ ]) Nodelocation: 464,64 Nodesize: 40,20 Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,1,MIDM Objective Diff_phys Title: Diff phys~ Definition: Dynamic(Initialdiffphys, Lnphysdyn - Lnphysdyn[time-1]) Nodelocation: 464,160 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,151,168,622,321,1,MIDM Objective Lnphysdyn Title: Ln of Physician Dynamics Definition: ln(Physician_dynamics) Nodelocation: 464,112 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,487,107,248,321,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,154,105,543,497,0,MIDM Objective Diff_urban Title: Diff urban Definition: dynamic(Initialdiffurban, Urbanization - Urbanization[time~~ -1]) Nodelocation: 96,152 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,47,46,534,413,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-2.5~ Ymaximum:2.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:10~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Module Standard_of_living Title: Standard of Living Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 7 Nov, 1997 16:13 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 224,48 Nodesize: 56,36 Diagstate: 1,246,120,428,376,17 Variable Gdppc_dynamics Title: GDPpc Dynamics Units: 1985 $ Description: {(Max_gdppc*Logistic1((Initial_gdppc1/Max_gdppc),Evolutio~~ n_rate3,1,((Time-1975)/5)))}~ Definition: dynamic(Initial_gdppc1, slice(Regional__gdp_pc[time-1], in~~ tervention, 1)) Nodelocation: 80,288,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,343,235 Defnstate: 1,324,296,296,306,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,63,42,782,546,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Initial_gdppc1 Title: Initial GDPpc~ 1975 Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 14K,2900,7400,2800,2000,1900,960,770,723,1595,11.33K,8381) Nodelocation: 80,232,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,123,273,296,306,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -26215,-13105,-1 Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Variable Initial_sdl_index Title: SDLivIndex~ 1975~ Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 75.9,83.9,73.7,71.2,54,70.9,84.6,86.2,72.9,84,72.4,64.9) Nodelocation: 208,96,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,87,198,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,61,280,252,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -26215,-13105,-1 Variable Stdliv_dynamics Title: STDLIV Dynamics Definition: ((Gdppc_dynamics*Atsdrate)/100) Nodelocation: 208,288,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,94,47,667,483,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Initialdiff_ln_sdl Title: InitialDIFF~ ln(SDLIV) Description: {Ln((((Initial_gdppc1*Initial_sdl_index)/100)/Back_estim~~ ate3))} Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.11,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.1125,0.1,0.0925,0.285,0.34,0.29,0.1325,0.23) Nodelocation: 336,280,1 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,346,57,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,19664,-1 Constant Evolution_rate3 Title: evolution rate~ GDPpc~ Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.125,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.15,0.25) Nodelocation: 320,40,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Defnstate: 1,192,268,247,288,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,445,172,244,287,0,MIDM Constant Max_gdppc Title: max GDPpc Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 80K,40K,70K,25K,25K,25K,10K,15K,20K,60K,70K,70K) Nodelocation: 224,40,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Defnstate: 1,77,246,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM Variable Evolution_ratesdlind Title: evolution rate~ SDLivIndex~ Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.02) Nodelocation: 320,192,1 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,288,251,247,288,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,514,342,244,287,1,MIDM Constant Max_sdlind Title: max SDLiv Index Description: Table(Regions_d)(~ 85,90,85,85,85,90,90,90,85,85,85,85) Definition: 87.5 Nodelocation: 96,120,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,0,MIDM Variable Stdliv_dynamics1 Title: STDLivIndex Dynamics Definition: (Max_sdlind*Logistic2((Initial_sdl_index/Max_sdlind),Evolu~~ tion_ratesdlind,1,((Time-1975)/5))) Nodelocation: 208,160,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,342,53,439,295,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Atsdrate Title: STDLivIndex Dynamics Definition: dynamic(Stdliv_dynamics1, {if Stdliv_dynamics1 < 70 then 7~~ 0* (1.007)^((time-1990)/5)else} Stdliv_dynamics1) Nodelocation: 208,224,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,125,162,439,295,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:0~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Close Standard_of_living Module Urbanization2 Title: Urbanization Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 7 Nov, 1997 16:13 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 224,128 Nodesize: 56,36 Diagstate: 1,289,139,448,245,17 Variable Urbanization1 Title: Urbanization~ 1975 Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 74,59,69,55,55,38,21,18,17,40,84,73) Nodelocation: 136,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,113,269,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,328,49,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -26215,-13105,-1 Variable Initialdiffurban Title: InitialDiff~ Urban Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 3,9,2.5,3.05,5,2.3,2.3,2.3,2.5,4.2,2,2) Nodelocation: 256,128,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,329,100,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,371,241,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,19664,-1 Constant Evolution_rate2 Title: evolution rate~ urbanization Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.5,0.45,0.4,0.17,0.32,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.5,0.3) Nodelocation: 232,24,1 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,211,224,247,288,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,468,318,264,301,0,MIDM Variable Back_estimate2 Title: urban1970~ estimate Definition: (Max_urban*Logistic2((Urbanization1/Max_urban),(-Evolution~~ _rate2),0.9,1)) Nodelocation: 136,160,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,102,90 Defnstate: 1,156,165,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,58,45,271,302,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,19664,-1 Constant Max_urban Title: max Urban Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 80,78,75,75,75,85,85,75,75,75,88,80) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,73,241,416,303,0,MIDM Close Urbanization2 Module Population_per_phys1 Title: Population Per Physician Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 7 Nov, 1997 16:13 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 344,128 Nodesize: 56,36 Diagstate: 1,152,162,494,350,17 Variable Physician_dynamics Title: Physician Dynamics Definition: (350*Logistic2((Population_per_physi/350),Evolution_rate,1~~ ,((Time-1975)/5))) Nodelocation: 232,88,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,487,107,248,321,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,251,83,460,415,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2000~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Population_per_physi Title: Population Per Physician~ 1975 Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 639,2121,650,920,400,5744,24.5K,9500,1400,5730,844,890) Nodelocation: 112,88,0 Nodesize: 48,28 Defnstate: 1,319,85,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,294,145,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -26215,-13105,-1 Variable Initialdiffphys Title: InitDiffPhys Definition: ln(Population_per_physi/Back_estimate) Nodelocation: 352,160,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,156,165,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,72,82,256,318,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,19664,-1 Constant Evolution_rate Title: evolution rate~ physicians Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.3,0.045,0.2,0.25,0.2,7m,3.5m,0.02,0.045,6.5m,0.28,0.1) Nodelocation: 344,88,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Defnstate: 1,111,179,247,288,0,MIDM Variable Back_estimate Title: phys1970~ estimate Definition: (350*Logistic2((Population_per_physi/350),(-Evolution_rate~~ ),1,1)) Nodelocation: 200,160,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,156,165,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,19664,-1 Close Population_per_phys1 Module Female_labour_partic Title: Female Labour Participation Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 7 Nov, 1997 16:13 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 344,48 Nodesize: 56,36 Diagstate: 1,225,228,434,250,17 Variable Flp1 Title: FLP~ 1975 Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 16,8,14,22,18,4,20,12,22,12,14,20) Nodelocation: 104,128,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,167,176 Defnstate: 1,95,200,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -26215,-13105,-1 Variable Initialdiffflp Title: InitialDiffFLP Definition: Flp1-Back_estimate1 Nodelocation: 240,64,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,156,165,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,67,221,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,19664,-1 Constant Evolution_rate1 Title: evolution rate~ FLP Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.7,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.35,0.05,0.15,0.7,0.15,0.5,0.05) Nodelocation: 104,64,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Defnstate: 1,337,315,247,288,0,MIDM Variable Back_estimate1 Title: FLP1970~ estimate Definition: (25*Logistic2((Flp1/25),(-Evolution_rate1),1,1)) Nodelocation: 240,128,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,156,165,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,72,82,271,302,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 19661,19664,-1 Close Female_labour_partic Close Drivers Variable Initial_fertility1 Title: Initial Fertility Description: This is the initial state of fertility expressed in terms~~ of a multiplier over the female population in the model at each age ~~ group. Definition: Table(Age_groups)(~ 0,0,0,1,2.2,2,1.2,0.35,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 56,64 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,0,1,1,,1, Defnstate: 1,40,50,616,526,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,104,114,672,455,1,MIDM Nodefont: Arial, 10 Variable Initial_mortality1 Title: Initial Mortality Description: This is the mortality of each age group expressed as a mu~~ ltiplier for the population in each age cohort, by gender. Definition: Table(Age_groups,Regions_12)(~ 8m,0.042,7m,0.0263,0.0263,0.0647,0.093,0.0714,0.0326,0.0297,7m,4m,~ 1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,~ 1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,1m,~ 5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,~ 5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,~ 5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,5m,~ 0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,~ 0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,~ 0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,~ 0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,~ 0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.2,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,~ 0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.4,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,~ 0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.8,0.2,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,~ 0.05,0.1,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.8,0.3,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,~ 0.05,0.4,0.05,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.8,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.05,0.05,~ 0.1,0.8,0.1,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.8,0.4,0.8,0.4,0.1,0.05,~ 0.4,0.8,0.4,0.4,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.5,0.25,~ 0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,~ 0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8~ ) Nodelocation: 56,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,0,1,1,,1, Defnstate: 1,33,142,729,421,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,56,66,581,536,1,MIDM Nodefont: Arial, 10 Variable I_population1 Title: Initial Demographics Description: This is the age structure of the population at the outset~~ by 5 year age classes and gender. Definition: Table(Age_groups,Regions_12)(~ 17.65M,30.79M,32M,45M,29.01M,46.11M,69.91M,91.63M,76.65M,27.96M,1.405~~ M,9.329M,~ 19.2M,29.88M,31.57M,44M,18.76M,28.51M,43.1M,88M,89.5M,18.78M,1.305M,8~~ .62M,~ 21.15M,28.78M,30M,41M,16.29M,24.09M,36.65M,83.53M,82.93M,16.3M,1.274M~~ ,8.391M,~ 22.99M,29.95M,29M,38M,14.25M,20.96M,32M,76.55M,75.12M,14.43M,1.23M,8.~~ 087M,~ 21.66M,26.69M,28.28M,37M,14.25M,20.96M,32M,69.38M,83.76M,14.43M,1.23M~~ ,8.087M,~ 18.72M,23.29M,26.51M,35M,14.32M,18.17M,27.79M,62.5M,99.34M,12.69M,1.1~~ 86M,7.779M,~ 15.38M,21.53M,24.31M,29M,12.62M,14.64M,22.46M,55.64M,95.94M,10.48M,1.~~ 134M,7.407M,~ 15.15M,20.79M,23M,24.68M,10.37M,11.17M,17.26M,48.59M,57.72M,8.287M,1.~~ 077M,7.003M,~ 14M,19.94M,20.2M,21.67M,8.121M,8.728M,13.6M,41.81M,69.48M,6.715M,1.02~~ 3M,6.634M,~ 13.5M,18.12M,18.42M,19.23M,6.379M,7.186M,11.27M,34.67M,54.8M,5.664M,9~~ 54K,6.173M,~ 12.5M,15.59M,17.02M,17.54M,5.381M,6.216M,9.548M,28.5M,39.65M,5.085M,8~~ 94K,5.776M,~ 11M,13.47M,15.18M,15.17M,4.831M,4.822M,6.589M,22.38M,34.3M,4.23M,823K~~ ,5.302M,~ 9.758M,12.07M,13.07M,12.38M,4.018M,3.288M,3.075M,17.54M,31.57M,3.208M~~ ,744.8K,4.777M,~ 8.753M,10.79M,11.24M,10.03M,3.181M,2.067M,1.377M,14.09M,24.97M,2.353M~~ ,674.8K,4.307M,~ 7.072M,8.811M,9.889M,7.938M,2.117M,1.33M,633.5K,10.04M,17.81M,1.683M,~~ 619K,3.937M,~ 4.652M,6.344M,9.407M,5.974M,1.178M,938.5K,384.1K,6.13M,10.77M,1.183M,~~ 588.9K,3.744M,~ 2.451M,6.679M,8.296M,3.473M,709.8K,535.9K,219.2K,4.319M,5.369M,679.6K~~ ,525.1K,3.52M,~ 1.051M,0,4.635M,1.873M,135.9K,226.8K,111.4K,0,2.477M,292.6K,253.3K,2.~~ 539M,~ 360K,0,832.5K,317.7K,58.53K,34.4K,16.97K,0,0,45.84K,48.06K,479.4K~ ) Nodelocation: 56,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,0,1,1,,1, Defnstate: 1,98,73,614,451,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,177,54,594,516,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:30M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:5~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Nodefont: Arial, 10 Variable A1975_populations Title: 1975 Populations Definition: sum(I_population1, age_groups) Nodelocation: 56,144,1 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,0,1,1,,1, Valuestate: 1,149,277,417,316,0,MIDM Nodefont: Arial, 12 Objective Regional_pop_complex Title: Regional Populations Description: Regional populations through time. Definition: Dynamic((Pop_1975+(0*(1+((Births8-Deaths8)/100)))),Populat~~ ion{[time-1]} ) Nodelocation: 464,224,1 Nodesize: 56,24 Valuestate: 1,331,107,537,390,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:200M~ Ymaximum:500M~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Objective Changes_in_available Title: Changes in Available Labour Definition: dynamic(un_scen+1, 1+(Dependancy_ratio - Dependancy_ratio[~~ time-1])/Dependancy_ratio[time-1]) Nodelocation: 464,272,1 Nodesize: 56,24 Windstate: 1,270,382 Valuestate: 1,120,130,566,471,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:1~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0.75~ Ymaximum:1.25~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 6 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Dynamic_demographic_ Close Demographic_change Close Demographics___econo Module Intervention_module Title: INTERVENTION Author: Hadi Date: Wed, Sep 4, 1996 12:17 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 128,216,0 Nodesize: 52,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,113,403,461,198,17 Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 10 Module Carbon_emissions_con Title: Carbon Emissions~ Control Description: In this node the global or local carbon tax necessary to ~~ try and meet scenario objectives are calculated. Author: Hadi Date: Thu, Mar 9, 1995 7:56 PM Defaultsize: 44,16 Nodelocation: 232,40 Nodesize: 72,28 Diagstate: 1,446,5,454,485,17 Nodecolor: -26215,-1,-13111 Module Adaptive_managment_t Title: Adaptive Managment Towards Policy Goals Description: The adaptive agents use available information from each ~~ instantiation of the model to calculate the appropriate rate of carbo~~ n tax. The aim of this tax is to meet exogenously specified targets. ~~ Six such targets can be specified in the scenario section of the mode~~ l. Author: Hadi Date: Mon, Jan 22, 1996 20:00 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 208,48,0 Nodesize: 60,40 Diagstate: 1,250,69,512,278,17 Nodecolor: -26215,-1,-13111 Chance Control Title: CONTROL Units: $/TC Definition: (If (How_is_the_climate_p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,1)) ~~ Then X_control Else (If (How_is_the_climate_p=Slice(Objective1,Object~~ ive1,2)) Then M_control Else (If (How_is_the_climate_p=Slice(Objectiv~~ e1,Objective1,3)) Then R_control1 Else (If (How_is_the_climate_p=Slic~~ e(Objective1,Objective1,4)) Then C_control Else (If (How_is_the_clima~~ te_p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,5)) Then T_control Else (If (How_is_~~ the_climate_p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,6)) Then Combined_control E~~ lse (If (How_is_the_climate_p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,7)) Then P_~~ control Else P_control))))))) Nodelocation: 248,104 Nodesize: 52,24 Windstate: 1,108,221 Valuestate: 1,74,97,572,389,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-1 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Module Global_emission_limi Title: Global~ Emission Limit Description: The [5, 20] set was much better than a whole host of alte~~ rnatives. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Feb 1, 1996 1:57 PM Nodelocation: 416,56 Nodesize: 76,20 Diagstate: 1,45,42,400,285,17 Chance Dm_dt Title: dM/dt Description: First derivative of emissions Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,Scen_fill,((Global_carbon_emissi[time-1]~~ -Global_carbon_emissi[Time-2])/5)) Nodelocation: 64,24 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,51,51,541,371,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance M_target Title: M Target Units: TC/Yr Description: This is the objective value for CO2 emissions. It is use~~ d as a target for the derivative control of the system using the carb~~ on tax instrument, which is revised at each time period. Definition: dynamic(Global_emission_lim1, revise_target[time-1]* Globa~~ l_emission_lim1) Nodelocation: 64,88 Nodesize: 44,16 Objective M_control Title: M Control Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,((M_Ref_tax[Time-1]*Alpha_m)*(((M_projec~~ tion-M_target)/M_target)^2))) Nodelocation: 304,144 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,155,405,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Alpha_m Title: Alpha_m Definition: (If ((M_Projection-M_target)<0) Then -aam Else aam) Nodelocation: 64,144 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,362,275,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance M_ref_tax Title: M Ref Tax Definition: dynamic(0, ~ if (M_projection> M_target and M_Ref_tax[Time-1]< 15) then 15 else M_~~ Ref_tax[time-1]) Nodelocation: 304,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance M_projection Title: M Projection Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+4.5g, (Global_carbon_emissi[time-1]+(ttm~~ *Dm_dt))) Nodelocation: 184,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,55,241 Chance Aam Title: aam Definition: 20 Nodelocation: 48,160 Nodesize: 24,12 Chance Ttm Title: ttm Definition: 5 Nodelocation: 160,104 Nodesize: 24,12 Close Global_emission_limi Module Concentration_limit Title: Concentration Limit Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Feb 1, 1996 1:57 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 80,56 Nodesize: 72,20 Diagstate: 1,510,343,430,258,17 Chance Dc_dt Title: dC/dt Description: First derivative of concentration Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),(scen_fill),((A_CO2[time-1]-A_CO2[Time~~ -2]))) Nodelocation: 56,24 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,43,185,685,410,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-100K~ Ymaximum:100K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance C_target Title: C Target Units: ppbv Description: This is the objective value for CO2 concentration. It i~~ s used as a target for the derivative control of the system using the~~ carbon tax instrument, which is revised at each time period.~ dynamic((Global_co2_concentra*1000)-300k,~ (revise_target[time-1]*Global_co2_concentra*1000)-300k) Definition: dynamic((Global_co2_concentra*1000),~ (revise_target[time-1]*Global_co2_concentra*1000)) Nodelocation: 56,80 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-500K~ Ymaximum:500K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Run] Objective C_control Title: C Control Description: Dynamic(Scen_fill,((C_ref_tax[time-1]*Alpha_c)*(abs((C_pr~~ ojection-C_target)/C_target)^C_power))) Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,((C_ref_tax[time-1]*Alpha_c)*(abs((C_pro~~ jection-C_target)/C_target)^2))) Nodelocation: 304,144 Nodesize: 44,16 Windstate: 1,102,70 Valuestate: 1,401,64,388,545,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Alpha_c Title: Alpha_c Definition: (Ifall ((C_projection-C_target)<0) Then (-Aac) Else Aac) Nodelocation: 56,144 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,362,275,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance C_projection Title: C Projection Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,(Scen_fill+(A_co2[Time-1]+(Ttc*Dc_dt))))~~ Nodelocation: 192,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,220,194 Valuestate: 1,125,121,527,476,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance C_ref_tax Title: C Ref Tax Definition: dynamic(scen_fill, ~ if (C_projection> C_target and C_ref_tax[Time-1]< 15) then 15 else C_~~ ref_tax[time-1]) Nodelocation: 304,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,32,113 Valuestate: 1,56,66,474,389,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Aac Title: aac Definition: 100 Nodelocation: 40,168 Nodesize: 20,16 Valuestate: 1,248,258,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Ttc Title: ttc Definition: 5 Nodelocation: 168,104 Nodesize: 20,16 Chance Cp1 Title: C Projection Definition: dynamic(scen_fill, scen_fill+(A_co2[time-1]+(5*Dc_dt))) Nodelocation: 160,152 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,125,121,527,476,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Concentration_limit Module Temperature_limit Title: Temperature~ Limit Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Feb 1, 1996 1:57 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 80,104 Nodesize: 72,20 Diagstate: 1,59,294,406,228,17 Chance Dt_dt Title: dT/dt Description: First derivative of concentration Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,Scen_fill,(Global_average__t[Time-1]-Glo~~ bal_average__t[Time-2])) Nodelocation: 56,32 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,51,51,541,371,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance T_target Title: T Target Units: ppbv Description: This is the objective value for CO2 concentration. It is~~ used as a target for the derivative control of the system using the ~~ carbon tax instrument, which is revised at each time period. Definition: dynamic(Global_temperature_c, revise_target[time-1]*Global~~ _temperature_c) Nodelocation: 56,80 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,248,258,416,303,1,MIDM Objective T_control Title: T Control Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,((Ref_tax_T[Time-1]*Alpha_t)*(((T_projec~~ tion-T_target)/T_target)^2))) Nodelocation: 288,136 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,89,62,638,655,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Alpha_t Title: alpha_T Description: Dynamic((Scen_fill-.25),(If ((T_projection-T_target)>0) T~~ hen .25 Else -.25)) Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill-Aat),(If ((T_projection-T_target)>0) Th~~ en Aat Else (-Aat))) Nodelocation: 56,136 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,136,146,543,313,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Ref_tax_t Title: Ref Tax T Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+0, ~ if (T_projection> T_target and Ref_tax_T[Time-1]< 15) then 15 else Re~~ f_tax_T[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 288,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,184,194,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance T_projection Title: T Projection Description: dynamic(Scen_fill, (Global_average__t[Time-1]+(60*Dt_dt))~~ ) Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,(Global_average__t[Time-1]+((4*Ttt)*Dt_d~~ t))) Nodelocation: 192,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,304,134,613,546,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Aat Title: aat Definition: .75 Nodelocation: 32,160 Nodesize: 20,16 Chance Ttt Title: ttt Definition: 6 Nodelocation: 160,104 Nodesize: 20,16 Close Temperature_limit Module Pareto_optimal Title: Pareto Optimal Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Feb 1, 1996 1:57 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 416,152 Nodesize: 76,20 Diagstate: 1,136,146,449,243,17 Chance Db_dt Title: dB/dt Description: This is the first derivative of the impacts associate wit~~ h climate change Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),(sum_benefits-sum_benefits[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 168,24,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,41,43,824,578,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Dx_dt Title: dX/dt Description: This is the first derivative of the impacts associate wit~~ h climate change Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),(sum_costs-sum_costs[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 168,144,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,88,98,824,578,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Net_marginal_benefit Title: Net Marginal Benefit Definition: dynamic({(Benefit_integral_und-Cost_integral_under_), (Ben~~ efit_integral_und -Cost_integral_under_)} db_dt - dx_dt, db_dt - dx_d~~ t) Nodelocation: 264,88,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,316,100,549,464,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:15~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-100G~ Ymaximum:100G~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance P_control Title: Paraeto Control Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,Scen_fill,(p_ref_tax[Time-1]*(If (Net_ma~~ rginal_benefit<0) Then -0.5 Else 0.5))) Nodelocation: 368,88,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,136,146 Valuestate: 1,201,49,716,570,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:15~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-10~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Sum_costs Title: Sum Costs Units: $(1990)/Yr Description: This is where the dead weight losses due to tax redistrib~~ ution and mis allocation of energy expenditures are reported. Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,Sum((Dead_weight_tax[Time-1]+Dead_weight~~ _energy[Time-1]),Regions_12)) Nodelocation: 48,144,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,85,55,632,434,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Sum_benefits Title: Sum Benefits Units: $(1990)/Yr Description: This is where the costs of climate impacts are reported. Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,(-Sum((Monitized_impacts[Time-1]-Slice(M~~ onitized_impacts[Time-1],Intervention,1)),Regions_12))) Nodelocation: 48,24,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,4,41,632,434,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Module A_predictive_control Title: A Predictive Control Set Up Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Feb 1, 1996 1:57 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 119,88,1 Nodesize: 58,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,168,178,474,345,17 Nodefont: Arial Narrow, 9 Chance D2b_dt2 Title: d2B/dt2 Description: Second derivative of concentration Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),(scen_fill),(DB_dt-DB_dt[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 48,168 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,75,87,512,335,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance D2x_dt2 Title: d2X/dt2 Description: Second derivative of concentration Definition: Dynamic((scen_fill),(scen_fill),(Dx_dt-Dx_dt[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 368,168 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,75,87,512,335,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Expected_benefit Title: Expected Benefit Definition: dynamic(exp(r*5*tb)*(~ sum_benefits/r +~ dB_dt*(tb/r - 1/r^2) +~ d2b_dt2*(tb^2/r - 2*tb/r^2 + 2/r^3)~ ),~ exp(r*5*tb)*(~ sum_benefits/r +~ dB_dt*(tb/r - 1/r^2) +~ d2b_dt2*(tb^2/r - 2*tb/r^2 + 2/r^3)~ )) Nodelocation: 152,136 Nodesize: 56,24 Windstate: 1,102,90 Valuestate: 1,1,-1,514,418,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Chance Tb Title: TB Definition: 20 Nodelocation: 208,56 Nodesize: 44,16 Chance R Title: R Definition: -0.03 Nodelocation: 208,88 Nodesize: 44,16 Chance Expected_cost Title: Expected Cost Definition: dynamic((Exp((R*5*Tb))*(((Sum_costs/R)+(Dx_dt*((Tb/R)-(1/(~~ R^2)))))+(D2x_dt2*((((Tb^2)/R)-((2*Tb)/(R^2)))+(2/(R^3)))))),~ (Exp((R*5*Tb))*(((Sum_costs/R)+(Dx_dt*((Tb/R)-(1/(R^2)))))+(D2x_dt2*(~~ (((Tb^2)/R)-((2*Tb)/(R^2)))+(2/(R^3))))))) Nodelocation: 264,136 Nodesize: 56,24 Valuestate: 1,488,-1,514,418,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Chance Expected_benefit1 Title: Expected Benefit Definition: dynamic((Exp((R*5*T0))*(((Sum_benefits/R)+(Db_dt*((T0/R)-(~~ 1/(R^2)))))+(D2b_dt2*((((T0^2)/R)-((2*T0)/(R^2)))+(2/(R^3)))))),~ (Exp((R*5*T0))*(((Sum_benefits/R)+(Db_dt*((T0/R)-(1/(R^2)))))+(D2b_dt~~ 2*((((T0^2)/R)-((2*T0)/(R^2)))+(2/(R^3))))))) Nodelocation: 152,192 Nodesize: 56,24 Valuestate: 1,152,162,514,418,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance T0 Title: T0 Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 208,24 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Benefit_integral_und Title: Benefit Integral under T Definition: dynamic((Expected_benefit - Expected_benefit1), (Expected_~~ benefit - Expected_benefit1)) Nodelocation: 152,248 Nodesize: 56,24 Valuestate: 1,358,141,416,303,0,SAMP Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Expected_cost1 Title: Expected Cost Definition: dynamic((Exp(((R*5)*T0))*(((Sum_costs/R)+(Dx_dt*((T0/R)-(1~~ /(R^2)))))+(D2x_dt2*((((T0^2)/R)-((2*T0)/(R^2)))+(2/(R^3)))))),~ (Exp(((R*5)*T0))*(((Sum_costs/R)+(Dx_dt*((T0/R)-(1/(R^2)))))+(D2x_dt2~~ *((((T0^2)/R)-((2*T0)/(R^2)))+(2/(R^3))))))) Nodelocation: 264,192 Nodesize: 56,24 Valuestate: 1,152,162,514,418,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Cost_integral_under_ Title: Cost Integral under T Definition: dynamic((Expected_cost-Expected_cost1), (Expected_cost-Exp~~ ected_cost1)) Nodelocation: 264,248 Nodesize: 56,24 Valuestate: 1,358,141,426,450,0,SAMP Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close A_predictive_control Chance P_ref_tax Title: P Ref Tax Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,(If ((Net_marginal_benefit[time-1]<0) An~~ d (P_ref_tax[Time-1]<15)) Then 15 Else P_ref_tax[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 312,24,1 Nodesize: 52,24 Windstate: 1,512,294 Valuestate: 1,56,66,474,389,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Pareto_optimal Module Regional_emission_li Title: Regional Emission Limit Author: Hadi Date: Sat, Oct 19, 1996 10:08 Nodelocation: 416,104 Nodesize: 76,20 Diagstate: 1,415,42,387,215,17 Chance Dr_dt Title: dR/dt Description: First derivative of emissions Definition: dynamic(scen_fill, scen_fill, (Un_carbon[time-1] - Un_carb~~ on[time-2])/5) Nodelocation: 64,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,51,51,541,371,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance R_target Title: R Target Units: GTC/Yr Description: This is the objective value for CO2 emissions. It is use~~ d as a target for the derivative control of the system using the carb~~ on tax instrument, which is revised at each time period. Definition: Dynamic(Target_table,revise_target[time-1]*Target_table) Nodelocation: 64,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,97,79 Defnstate: 1,65,46,557,247,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,133,132,568,428,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Objective R_control1 Title: R Control Units: $/TC Definition: if kyoto_pledge = 0 then 0 else ~ Only_those_who_pledg Nodelocation: 320,144 Nodesize: 44,16 Valuestate: 1,107,78,693,653,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:400~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Alpha_r Title: Alpha_R Definition: dynamic(UN_scen+1,~ (If ((RM_projection-R_target)<0) Then -aar Else aar)) Nodelocation: 64,144 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,200,71,381,403,1,STAT Chance Rm_ref_tax Title: RM Ref Tax Definition: dynamic(0, ~ if (RM_projection> R_target and RM_Ref_tax[Time-1]< 15) then 15 else ~~ RM_Ref_tax[time-1]) Nodelocation: 304,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Rm_projection Title: RM Projection Definition: dynamic(scen_fill, Un_carbon[time-1]+(ttr*Dr_dt)) Nodelocation: 200,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Aar Title: aar Definition: 20 Nodelocation: 48,160 Nodesize: 20,12 Chance Ttr Title: ttr Definition: 5 Nodelocation: 192,64 Nodesize: 20,12 Chance Only_those_who_pledg Title: Only those who pledged are contrained Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,((Reference_tax[Time-1]*Alpha_r)*((((RM_~~ Projection)-R_target)/R_target)^2))) Nodelocation: 200,144 Nodesize: 56,32 Close Regional_emission_li Variable X_control Description: If regional taxes are prescribed by the user, there is no~~ need to engage the adaptive agent paradigm. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 248,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Module A_t___dt_dt_combined Title: ±T & dt/dt Combined Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Tue, Sep 16, 1997 12:40 PM Nodelocation: 80,152 Nodesize: 72,20 Diagstate: 1,231,256,438,180,17 Module Rate_of__t_limit Title: Rate of ±T~ Limit Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Feb 1, 1996 1:57 PM Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 72,20 Diagstate: 1,402,72,376,256,17 Chance D2t_dt2 Title: d2T/dt2 Description: Second derivative of global average temperature change. Definition: Dynamic(~ Scen_fill,Scen_fill,((Annual_rt[Time-1]-Annual_rt[Time-2])/5)~ ) Nodelocation: 64,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,51,51,541,371,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1m~ Ymaximum:1m~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Rt_target Title: RT Target Units: °C/Yr Description: This is the objective value for CO2 concentration. It is~~ used as a target for the derivative control of the system using the ~~ carbon tax instrument, which is revised at each time period. Definition: Global__rate_of_temp Nodelocation: 80,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Rt_control Title: RT Control Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,((Ref_tax_RT[Time-1]*Alpha_rt)*~ (~ abs((((Rt_projection)-Rt_target)/Rt_target))~ ^2))) Nodelocation: 288,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,89,62,654,497,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-500~ Ymaximum:500~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Alpha_rt Title: alpha_RT Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill-0.5,~ If (Rt_projection-Rt_target)>0 Then 0.5 Else -0.5~ ) Nodelocation: 176,64 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,543,313,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Rt_projection Title: RT Projection Definition: Dynamic(0.03,(Annual_rt[Time-1]+(4*D2t_dt2))) Nodelocation: 88,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,564,393,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0.02~ Ymaximum:0.06~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Ref_tax_rt Title: Ref Tax RT Definition: dynamic(scen_fill+0, ~ if (RT_projection> RT_target and Ref_tax_RT[Time-1]< 15) then 15 else~~ Ref_tax_RT[Time-1]) Nodelocation: 288,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,184,194,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Rate_of__t_limit Chance Combined_control Title: Combined Control Description: This combines limitations on temperature change and rate ~~ of temperature change. Definition: If RT_control > T_Control then RT_control else T_control Nodelocation: 208,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Close A_t___dt_dt_combined Decision Revise_target Title: Revise Target Definition: (If ((Global_target_revis='YES') And (Policy_initiative1>0~~ )) Then 0.8 Else 1) Nodelocation: 248,24 Nodesize: 56,20 Valuestate: 1,104,47,438,556,0,SAMP Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Close Adaptive_managment_t Variable Tax_adjusted_to_main Title: Tax Adjusted to Maintain Sequestration Effort Definition: Dynamic(Smart_fill, Smart_fill, Smart_fill, (If (Cumulativ~~ e_tax200) Then 200 Else Control~~ ))))) Nodelocation: 208,136,0 Nodesize: 52,32 Windstate: 1,56,66 Valuestate: 1,137,64,603,517,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:200~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Decision Initial_tax Title: Initial Tax Description: This is the rate at which the tax on carbon increases at ~~ each time step. Definition: if How_is_the_climate_p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,1) the~~ n scen_fill else scen_fill+15 Nodelocation: 360,136,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,289,283 Defnstate: 1,398,57,180,439,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,115,43,234,578,0,MIDM Objective Regional_carbon_tax Title: Regional Carbon Tax Units: $/TC Description: This is where the tax regime is defined for the period of~~ the simulation. This tax is based on the carbon content of each fos~~ sil fuel. Depending on the nature of the objective function (i.e., a ~~ regional objective with regional agents or global targets with single~~ agents) there may be differentiation in the burden of emissiosn cont~~ rol. Definition: Dynamic(~ If (How_is_the_climate_p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,1)) ~ Then (Regional_allocations*Regional_tax)~ Else (Regional_allocations*Carbon_tax__per_inte),~ If (How_is_the_climate_p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,1)) ~ Then (Regional_allocations*Regional_tax)~ Else (Regional_allocations*Carbon_tax__per_inte)) Nodelocation: 208,400,0 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,147,109 Defnstate: 1,171,40,370,554,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,153,86,799,559,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:200~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformdef: [Intervention,Time] Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Carbon_tax__per_inte Title: Carbon Tax ~ Per Intervention Description: If we have perfect foresight, this is the approach to set~~ ting taxes. Definition: Dynamic((Normal(1,1m)*Scen_fill),(If (((How_is_the_climate~~ _p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,3)) And (A3_regonal_em__limit=Slice(Re~~ _choice,Re_choice,2))) And (Kyoto_pledge=0)) Then 0 Else (If (Time=If~~ _exploring_timing_) Then Initial_tax Else (If (Time>=(If_exploring_ti~~ ming_+5)) Then Tax_adjusted_to_main Else Carbon_tax__per_inte[Time-1]~~ )))) Nodelocation: 208,328,0 Nodesize: 60,28 Windstate: 1,163,146 Valuestate: 1,189,132,760,590,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2000~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Reference_tax Title: Reference Tax Units: $/TC Description: If the policy is global, then a global reference tax is u~~ sed. If the policy is being pursued on a regional basis, pervious per~~ iod's regional taxes are used as the reference value for the next per~~ iod's tax level. Definition: (If ((How_is_the_climate_p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,1))~~ Or (How_is_the_climate_p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,3))) Then Regio~~ nal_carbon_tax Else Maximum_carbon_tax_a) Nodelocation: 352,288,0 Nodesize: 48,20 Windstate: 1,216,226 Valuestate: 1,172,102,568,463,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Constant Introduce_tax Title: Introduce Tax Units: Year Description: This node determines the year carbon taxes are introduce~~ d for the three intervention strategies simulated in the model at any~~ instantiation. Definition: array(intervention, [2200, 2000, 2025]) Nodelocation: 88,96,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,0,MIDM Variable Cumulative_tax Title: Cumulative Tax Definition: Dynamic(smart_fill,((Cumulative_tax[Time-1]+Tax_change_in_~~ this_p)/Change_in_fraction_c[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 88,176,0 Nodesize: 48,28 Windstate: 1,351,166 Valuestate: 1,47,84,720,487,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4000~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Maximum_carbon_tax_a Title: Maximum Carbon Tax Anywhere Units: $/TC Description: This node calculates the highest regional tax among the 1~~ 2 regions. This value is used later as a reference point for setting ~~ the appropriate tax rate for regions joining the system or leaving it~~ through time. Definition: dynamic(Max( Regional_carbon_tax, regions_12 ),~ Max( Regional_carbon_tax, regions_12 )) Nodelocation: 352,400,0 Nodesize: 44,28 Valuestate: 1,377,136,416,303,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2000~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Min_tax_for_c_seq Title: Minimum Tax for Carbon Sequestration Description: In many runs the control costs are determined by the marg~~ inal cost of carbon sequestration. As the level of sequestration is s~~ aturated, there is no benefit in further increases in the carbon tax.~~ Furthermore, the carbon tax has be to maintained high enough for the~~ carbon separation and sequestration effort to continue. Definition: min(Av_cost_of_c_seq, regions_12) Nodelocation: 96,272,0 Nodesize: 56,32 Valuestate: 1,120,130,503,495,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:40~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Carbon_emissions_con Objective Carbon_tax Title: Carbon Tax Units: $/Ton C Definition: Regional_carbon_tax Nodelocation: 384,40 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,72,82 Valuestate: 1,72,75,572,504,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Al6, Alias Al15, Alias Cumulative_carbon_ta, Formnode Carbon_tax1~~ , Formnode Carbon_tax2 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:0~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:2000~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1000~ Zminimum:0.1~ Zmaximum:0.9~ Xintervals:5~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.1,0.5,0.9]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,F,4,0,0,0 Module Burdens___differenti Title: Burdens & Differentiation Author: Hadi Date: Mon, Dec 2, 1996 6:42 Nodelocation: 72,40 Nodesize: 64,32 Diagstate: 1,221,53,426,365,17 Decision Regional_allocations Title: Regional Allocations Definition: (If (How_is_the_climate_p=Slice(Objective1,Objective1,3)) ~~ Then (Equal_burdens*Policy_failure) Else (If (Distribute_the_burde=Sl~~ ice(Burden_choice,Burden_choice,4)) Then (Gnppc_ratios*Policy_failure~~ ) Else (Differential_burdens*Policy_failure))) Nodelocation: 328,96 Nodesize: 56,24 Windstate: 1,157,269 Defnstate: 1,95,285,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,105,60,765,603,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Start_of_burden Title: Start of Burden Definition: Slice(Regional_burden_of_3,Action_index,1) Nodelocation: 56,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Initial_burden Title: Initial Burden Definition: Slice(Regional_burden_of_3,Action_index,2) Nodelocation: 56,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Full__burden Title: Full ~ Burden Definition: Slice(Regional_burden_of_3,Action_index,3) Nodelocation: 56,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Decision Equal_burdens Title: Equal Burdens Definition: dynamic((Un_filler*1), (Un_filler*1)) Nodelocation: 192,128 Nodesize: 56,24 Defnstate: 1,95,285,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,3,41,632,434,1,MIDM Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Decision Differential_burdens Title: Differential Burdens Definition: Dynamic((Un_filler*0),(If (Time=Start_of_burden) Then Init~~ ial_burden Else (If (Time=Ful~~ l__burden) Then 1 Else (Differential_burdens[Time-1]+(((1-Initial_bur~~ den)*5)/(Full__burden-Start_of_burden))))))) Nodelocation: 192,64 Nodesize: 56,24 Defnstate: 1,95,285,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,79,68,632,434,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Fraction_controled Title: Fraction of Emissions under control Definition: Sum(((Regional_allocations*Un_carbon)/Sum(Un_carbon,Region~~ s_12)),Regions_12) Nodelocation: 328,160 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,80,49,537,390,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Change_in_fraction_c Title: Change in fraction controlled Definition: dynamic(if Fraction_controled <= 0 then 1 else 1,~ if Fraction_controled[time-1] <= 0 then 1 else Fraction_controled/Fra~~ ction_controled[time-1]) Nodelocation: 328,224 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,61,53,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Decision Policy_failure Title: Policy Failure Definition: dynamic(UN_scen+1, if policy_crisis = 1 then Policy_failur~~ e[time-1]*Burden_shedding else Policy_failure[time-1]) Nodelocation: 192,192 Nodesize: 56,24 Valuestate: 1,216,226,701,471,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Burden_shedding Title: Burden Shedding Definition: If (Enforcement='NO') Then UN_scen+0.25 Else UN_scen+1 Nodelocation: 64,192 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Close Burdens___differenti Module Direct_economic_impa Title: Direct Economic Impact of Control Author: Hadi Date: Mon, Dec 2, 1996 6:42 Nodelocation: 232,120 Nodesize: 88,28 Diagstate: 1,216,226,449,243,17 Objective Dead_weight_tax Title: Dead Wt Loss in Tax Collection & Redistribution Units: $ Description: I have assumed that a dollar of tax collected is recycled~~ with a loss of 25%. The range of dead wt losses have been estimated~~ at between 0 and 1 (REF). Definition: Dynamic((Tax_loss_sens*((Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*Fuel_spec~~ ific_taxes),Fuels)*Loss_in_tax_recircul)*1G)),(Tax_loss_sens*((Sum((F~~ uel_use_by_region*Fuel_specific_taxes),Fuels)*Loss_in_tax_recircul)*1~~ G))) Nodelocation: 376,80 Nodesize: 52,36 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,152,162 Valuestate: 1,122,61,424,547,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-13109,-13109 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20G~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:7~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Fuel_specific_taxes Title: Fuel Specific Taxes Through Time Units: $/GJ Description: This is the tax applicable to different fuels. The tax i~~ s applied when the condition is satisfied and imposed from then on. Definition: Dynamic((Carbon_content3*Regional_carbon_tax),(Carbon_cont~~ ent3*Regional_carbon_tax)) Nodelocation: 248,32 Nodesize: 56,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Defnstate: 1,126,61,417,548,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,54,37,438,566,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -382,-1,-16424 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformdef: [Fuels,Time] Reformval: [Time,Fuels] Chance Loss_in_tax_recircul Title: Loss in Tax Recirculatoin Definition: if Tax_recycling_effect = 'Loss' then Tax_economy else~ if Tax_recycling_effect = 'Dividend' then -Tax_economy else~ scen_fill Nodelocation: 248,112 Nodesize: 56,36 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,200,210 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -48,-162,-16104 Reformval: [Regions_12,Tax_index] Chance Uncertainty_in_tax_r Title: Uncertainty in Tax Recirculation Losses Description: This variable can be defined to be separately sampled or ~~ valued for each region. Definition: (Lognormal(0.15,1.5)-0.1) Nodelocation: 56,104 Nodesize: 56,36 Valuestate: 1,40,50,509,309,1,STAT Nodecolor: -48,-162,-16104 Chance Tax_economy Title: Tax & economy Definition: Evaluate_p(Uncertainty_in_tax_r,Uf_econ) Nodelocation: 152,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -48,-162,-16104 Reformval: [Regions_12,Statslabels] Close Direct_economic_impa Close Intervention_module Module Impacts Title: Impacts of~ Climate Change Description: The impacts model is where the impacts of environmental c~~ hange are assessed. The assessments are split into two main sub-mode~~ ls, one dealing with market losses, the other with non-market losses.~~ Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi and M. Granger Morgan~ Department of Engineering and Public Policy~ Carnegie Mellon University. Date: Fri, Nov 1, 1991 4:02 PM Saveauthor: Hadi Dowlatabadi Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 328,128,0 Nodesize: 60,36 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Diagstate: 1,345,55,412,318,1 Nodecolor: 1,52427,26212 Diagramcolor: 1,52427,26212 Fontstyle: Arial, 12 Module Market_imp Title: Market~ Impacts Description: Market losses are defined by region, and as a function of~~ radiative forcing, and the rate of change of radiative forcing. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Nov 1, 1991 4:02 PM Defaultsize: 44,20 Nodelocation: 72,208 Nodesize: 56,40 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,85,47,483,387,17 Icon: (00 00 00 10 00 00 00 30 00 00 00 C8 00 00 01 88 00 00 0E 08 00 ~~ 00 38 1C 00 00 E0 06 00 03 80 03 00 1E 00 01 00 60 80 01 01 83 C1 01 ~~ 07 04 21 F2 1C 0C 10 C1 B8 0A 88 C1 EE 13 84 F1 92 15 84 7B 9C 2D 84 ~~ 2A 87 2F 88 3B 45 33 98 E7 C7 12 D0 7E 6E 0A F1 9C 6C 07 C7 FC 64 00 ~~ 0F 08 60 00 3C 00 50 00 70 00 D0 01 80 00 70 02 00 00 78 1C 00 00 1C ~~ 38 00 00 1E E0 00 00 03 C0 00 00 0F 00 00 00 ) Nodecolor: -5,-26215,-1 Fontstyle: Arial, 9 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Chance Impact_amplitude Title: Secular impact Amplitude Definition: ((Unc_A*(3.75/P))-0.6) Nodelocation: 152,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,108,55,547,536,1,CDFP Aliases: Alias Impact_stochasticit1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:-1~ Xmaximum:3~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Objective Market_impacts_by_r1 Title: Market Impacts by region Units: 1990$/Yr Description: This feeds to the econmic model modifying the available G~~ DP.~ When I run this, SE Asia is by far the greatest loser. ? Definition: Dynamic(Scen_fill,(Vulnerabil*(Economic_activity_by[Time-1~~ ]*Bounded_ma))) Nodelocation: 432,136 Nodesize: 28,36 Windstate: 1,200,209 Valuestate: 1,80,47,555,453,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Market_impacts_by_re, Formnode Market_impacts_by_r2 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1.5T~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,D,6,2,0,0 Chance P Title: Power of Impact Function Definition: m_power_sens*~ Evaluate_p(uniform(1,3), UF_market) Nodelocation: 48,240 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,328,123,224,249,0,MIDM Chance Adapt_m_rate Title: Adaptation rate Description: This is the e-folding time of adaptative response Definition: m_tau_sens*if Adaptation_sw = 'NO' then 1 else~ Evaluate_p((1-5/(Lognormal(15,1.5))), UF_market) Nodelocation: 272,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,408,50 Valuestate: 1,416,114,454,582,1,PDFP Chance Bounded_ma Title: Bounded Market Impacts Definition: Dynamic(Market_imp1+Slr_market_loss, Slr_market_loss+(If (~~ Market_imp1>0.5) Then 0.5 Else Market_imp1)) Nodelocation: 336,136 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,56,66 Valuestate: 1,76,50,632,434,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.05~ Ymaximum:0.05~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance N_impacts Title: Normalized Impact Level Definition: dynamic(~ M_imp_sens*(if (share_of_ag*.0278) > 1m then (share_of_ag*.0278*Cold_~~ ben) else 1m*Cold_ben), ~ M_imp_sens*(if (share_of_ag*.0278) > 1m then (share_of_ag*.0278*Cold_~~ ben) else 1m*Cold_ben)) Nodelocation: 160,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,264,274,554,299,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,75,64,632,434,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Regions_2,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Market_imp1 Title: Market Impacts Description: Damages accumulate unless we have detected them and have ~~ a technological solution with a time lag of adaptation2. The rate at~~ which new technology takes the place of the old is 1/adapt_m. Definition: Dynamic(((Xevents/100)+((Impact_amplitude*N_impacts)*Secul~~ ar_t)),((Xevents/100)+(If ((Time-Impacts_det_react[Time-1])>0) Then (~~ ((Impact_amplitude*N_impacts)*Secular_t)+(Bounded_ma[Time-1]*Adapt_m_~~ rate)) Else (((Impact_amplitude*N_impacts)*Secular_t)+Bounded_ma[Time~~ -1])))) Nodelocation: 216,136 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,88,98 Valuestate: 1,80,70,632,434,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1950~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.05~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Impacts_det_react Title: Adaptation lag Definition: dynamic(un_filler*0, un_filler*0, un_filler*0, un_filler*0~~ , ~ Ifonly Impacts_det_react[time-1] > 0 then Impacts_det_react[time-1] e~~ lse~ ifonly bounded_ma[time-1] > Threshold then Time else 0) Nodelocation: 264,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,153,51,538,546,0,SAMP Aliases: Alias Adaptation_lag Reformval: [Run,Time] Chance Threshold Title: Threshold of Impacts Description: Impacts from extreme events such as Hurricane Hugo have b~~ een considered clarions of climate change impacts. Thus, there is un~~ certainty in the level at which impacts can lead to action either in ~~ terms of mitigation or adaptation. Definition: Evaluate_p(Uniform(0.005, 0.01), UF_market) Nodelocation: 264,248 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,168,178,374,425,0,SAMP Aliases: Alias Threshold_of_impacts Chance Secular_t Title: Secular Trend Temp index Definition: Dynamic(Abs(Regional__t),(If (Abs(Regional__t)>Abs(Regiona~~ l__t[Time-1])) Then ((Abs(Regional__t)^P)-(Abs(Regional__t[Time-1])^P~~ )) Else 0)) Nodelocation: 88,136 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Share_of_ag Title: Share of Agriculature Description: This is based on a regression of data for world data on g~~ np per capita and share of agriculature. The data are from WRI 1992.~~ The regression was performed on averaged data for 6 world regions. ~~ The intercept and coefficient are:~ ~ Coefficients Standard Error t Statistic P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%~ ~ Intercept 26.589321 4.08324916 6.51 0.00 15.25 37.93~ x1 -0.0022597 0.00083088 -2.72 0.04 0.00 0.00 Definition: Dynamic(((86+(Logten(Gdp_per_capita_1975)*-19))/100),((86+~~ (Logten(Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1])*-19))/100)) Nodelocation: 120,32 Nodesize: 44,16 Windstate: 1,249,114 Valuestate: 1,223,166,653,462,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Cold_ben Title: Very cold places may benefit Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ Uniform(0.5,1.5),Uniform(0.5,1.5),Uniform(0.5,1.5),Uniform(-0.5,0.5),~~ Uniform(-0.5,0.5),Uniform(0.5,1.5),Uniform(0.5,1.5),Uniform(0.5,1.5),~~ Uniform(0.5,1.5),Uniform(0.5,1.5),Uniform(0.5,1.5),Uniform(0.5,1.5)) Nodelocation: 224,32 Nodesize: 44,24 Chance Unc_a Title: Secular Impact Amplitude Uncertainty Definition: Evaluate_p(lognormal(.5, 1.5),Uf_market) Nodelocation: 152,248 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,243,272,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:10~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:3~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Chance Xevents Title: Stochastic Regional Impacts Units: % GDP Loss Definition: Dynamic((0.3*Array(Regions_12,[Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(~~ 0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0~~ .5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.~~ 5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2)])),(0.2*Array(Regions_12,[Logn~~ ormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Logno~~ rmal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognor~~ mal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2),Lognormal(0.5,2)]))) Nodelocation: 200,304 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,581,49 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,1,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:10~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Chance Window Title: Window of concerted policy action Definition: Sum((Ifall (Xevents>0.2) Then 1 Else 0),Regions_12) Nodelocation: 336,304 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,208,114,553,429,1,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:5~ Zminimum:1975~ Zmaximum:2100~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Run] Alias Slr_market_losses Title: SLR Market Losses Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 352,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Slr_market_loss Close Market_imp Module Non_market1 Title: Non-Market~ Impacts Description: Non-market damages are tied to climate change, and per ca~~ pita income. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Nov 1, 1991 4:02 PM Defaultsize: 44,20 Nodelocation: 328,208 Nodesize: 56,40 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,280,65,579,323,1 Icon: (00 00 00 10 00 00 00 30 00 00 00 C8 00 00 01 88 00 00 0E 08 00 ~~ 00 38 1C 00 00 E0 06 00 03 80 03 00 1E 00 01 00 60 80 01 01 83 C1 01 ~~ 07 04 21 F2 1C 0C 10 C1 B8 0A 88 C1 EE 13 84 F1 92 15 84 7B 9C 2D 84 ~~ 2A 87 2F 88 3B 45 33 98 E7 C7 12 D0 7E 6E 0A F1 9C 6C 07 C7 FC 64 00 ~~ 0F 08 60 00 3C 00 50 00 70 00 D0 01 80 00 70 02 00 00 78 1C 00 00 1C ~~ 38 00 00 1E E0 00 00 03 C0 00 00 0F 00 00 00 ) Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Diagramcolor: -4098,-10661,-13162 Fontstyle: Arial, 9 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Objective Regional_n Title: Regional Non-~ market Impacts Description: ¥ Wilderness/Unmanaged ecological resources are finite.~ ¥ These goods are desirable and are demanded as superior goods.~ ¥ As income increases, so does the value of these goods as more money~~ chaces a fixed level of supply,~ ¥ No WTP threshhold has been detected, but reaslitically, incomes mus~~ t be above subsistance levels before they can be dedicated to this ca~~ use.~ ¥ Assume income elasticity of .005, above an income of 10k for northe~~ rn region, above an income of 1k in southern region). So for every d~~ ollar above 1000 per annum, the southerner is prepared to pay $ 5 for~~ environmental protection. at ±RF = 4 W/sqm. Let us assume also that~~ the WTP is geometric in multiples of ±RF. Definition: Dynamic((Scen_fill*Un_filler),(Scen_fill*Un_filler),(Scen_~~ fill*Un_filler),(If (Cumulative5>1) Then Economic_activity_by[Time-1]~~ Else ((Economic_activity_by[Time-1]*Cumulative5)*Vulnerabil))) Nodelocation: 480,120 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,121,77 Valuestate: 1,154,42,450,417,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -13111,-26215,-1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4T~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Willing_to Title: Willing to Pay for Non-market Goods? Description: This is a measure of WTP of individuals for prevention of~~ non-market damages due to climate change. It is the fraction of inc~~ ome above a threshhold value set at 10 k for high latitude regions an~~ d 1 k at low latitude regions. Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ Lognormal(0.01,3),Lognormal(0.01,3),Lognormal(0.01,3),Lognormal(0.01,~~ 3),Lognormal(0.01,3),Lognormal(0.01,3),Lognormal(0.01,3),Lognormal(0.~~ 01,3),Lognormal(0.01,3),Lognormal(0.01,3),Lognormal(0.01,3),Lognormal~~ (0.01,3)) Nodelocation: 248,48 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,280,289 Defnstate: 1,120,130,567,413,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,1,PDFP Aliases: Alias Willing_to_pay_for_n Reformdef: [Regions_2,Regions_12] Chance Power_of_n Title: Power of Non-market Impact Function Description: This is where the uncertainty in the relationship of impa~~ cts of climate change and the proxy for climate change is expressed. ~~ The functional relationship is defined as a impacts being a power of~~ temperature change. Definition: nm_power_sens*~ Evaluate_p(uniform(1,3), UF_nonm) Nodelocation: 248,248 Nodesize: 44,24 Chance Instantane Title: Instantaneous Non-Market Impact Definition: Dynamic(Unc_Un_scen, Unc_Un_scen, Unc_Un_scen,~ (If (Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1]<1000) Then 0 Else (If (Regional__gdp_pc~~ [Time-1]>40K) Then ((Willing_to*Upper_boun)*(Index_of_l^Power_of_n)) ~~ Else (Willing_to*((Upper_boun*(Index_of_l^Power_of_n))/(1+(100*Exp(((~~ (-Normalized2)*Regional__gdp_pc[Time-1])/1000))))))))) Nodelocation: 272,120 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,47,61 Valuestate: 1,67,59,539,486,1,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.04~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:7~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Chance Upper_boun Title: Upper Bound on Fraction of pc Income Description: dynamic((5/(T^(Power-0.25))), (5/(T^(Power-0.25)))) Definition: Dynamic(~ Nm_amp_sens*(Ifonly ((1.5/(Index_of_l^(Power_of_n-0.25)))>1.5) Then 1~~ .5 Else (1.5/(Index_of_l^(Power_of_n-0.25)))),~ Nm_amp_sens*(Ifonly ((1.5/(Index_of_l^(Power_of_n-0.25)))>1.5) Then 1~~ .5 Else (1.5/(Index_of_l^(Power_of_n-0.25))))) Nodelocation: 192,184 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,48,87,585,325,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Normalized2 Title: Normalized Magnitude of Impacts Definition: Nm_amp_sens*.23 Nodelocation: 144,56 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Cumulative5 Title: Cumulative Non-market Impacts Definition: Dynamic(Instantane[Time=1975],(If ((Time-1990)>Adapt_nm_la~~ g) Then (Instantane[Time-0]+(Cumulative5[Time-1]*(1-(5/Adapt_nm_tau))~~ )) Else (Instantane[Time-0]+Cumulative5[Time-1]))) Nodelocation: 376,120 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,120,130 Valuestate: 1,51,116,626,440,0,MIDM Chance Adapt_nm_tau Title: Adaptation rate Description: In this parameter the concept of forgetting or adapting t~~ o a non-market damage is captured as the length of time before the in~~ itial amplitude of an impact has diminished to 1/e of its original am~~ plitude. Definition: nm_tau_sens*if Adaptation_sw = 'NO' then 1000 else~ Evaluate_p(lognormal(10,1.25), UF_nonm) Nodelocation: 352,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,STAT Chance Ratio_of_r Title: Ratio of Regional to Tropical Change Description: This is a linear factor for the admixture of regional and~~ global climate change Definition: (Evaluate_p(uniform(0.1, 0.9), UF_nonm)) Nodelocation: 80,104 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,40,50,393,442,0,SAMP Chance Index_of_l Title: Index of Local & Global Climate Chng Definition: Dynamic((Abs((Ratio_of_r*Regional__t))+Abs(((1-Ratio_of_r)~~ *Tropical_t))),(Abs((Ratio_of_r*Regional__t))+Abs(((1-Ratio_of_r)*Tro~~ pical_t)))) Nodelocation: 168,128 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Index_of_local___glo Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Adapt_nm_lag Title: Adaptation lag Definition: if Adaptation_sw = 'NO' then 1000 else~ Evaluate_p(Uniform(0, 30), UF_nonm) Nodelocation: 360,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Tropical_t Title: Tropical Temperatures Definition: Dynamic(((Slice(Regional__t,Regions_12,2)+Slice(Regional__~~ t,Regions_12,7))/2),((Slice(Regional__t,Regions_12,2)+Slice(Regional_~~ _t,Regions_12,7))/2)) Nodelocation: 80,168 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,STAT Reformval: [Time,Statslabels] Close Non_market1 Objective Multi_criteria_impac Title: Multi-criteria Impacts Units: 1990 $/Yr Description: This is the variable where the market and non-market impa~~ cts of climate change are combined. Definition: Table(Losses)(~ Market_impacts_by_r1,Regional_n,Regional_slr_on_land,Regional_slr_on_~~ stru,Regional_slr_on_popu,Mortality_due_to_sul,(-Loss_of_life_expecta~~ )) Nodelocation: 200,144 Nodesize: 48,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,62,58 Defnstate: 1,50,450,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,50,45,860,558,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-6043,-1955 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:4~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:3T~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:7~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times, 10 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Reformval: [Time,Losses] Module Coastal_im1 Title: Coastal~ Impacts Description: ICAM-2 module to assess impacts due to sea level change.~ Primary references: ~ (1) Titus et al. - Coastal management v19, #2, 1991 - results for the~~ US~ (2) IMAGE (& ESCAPE) model, 1992 - results for the Netherlands~ (3) Specific country case studies, 1991, 1992, 1993 - Senegal, Urugua~~ y, Bangladesh, Egypt~ (4) IPCC Response Strategies Working Group, 1992 - summary of country~~ case studies.~ (5) Climate and Sea level change, 1992, Warrick & Oerlemans, Cambridg~~ e Univ. Press Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, 17 Feb, 1994 8:04 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 72,96 Nodesize: 56,44 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,336,297,479,233,1 Icon: (00 00 00 00 00 00 01 10 00 00 00 08 00 00 40 08 00 00 16 00 00 ~~ 00 AD C0 00 00 1F 60 00 01 9D 50 00 02 FA B0 00 02 AF A0 00 07 79 78 ~~ 00 1B FD B0 00 37 F5 60 00 4F A8 00 00 7B F0 04 01 4F F0 00 00 6A F0 ~~ 00 06 F7 D0 04 07 0A F0 00 18 97 F8 05 73 FC 3A 07 FF AF FC BF B6 DF ~~ F8 FF B8 FF EF FD 73 F1 FF F8 FC F7 FF F1 21 EC D3 7E 27 C1 D3 BF FF ~~ 02 1F B6 1C 32 7A FD 37 07 FF FF F1 F5 DD 40 ) Nodecolor: 19661,-17200,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Module Slc Title: Relative sea~ level change Description: Sub-model to compute relative sea level change outcomes f~~ or each of the geographic regions in ICAM-2 Author: Anand Patwardhan Date: Sun, Mar 27, 1994 12:51 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 104,112 Nodesize: 60,32 Diagstate: 1,52,41,474,445,3 Variable Rsl Title: RSL outcome Units: m Description: Regional Sea Level Change are comprised of thermal expans~~ ion, mass-balance change of ice, land use and cover factors, and land~~ movement. Definition: ((((Regional_differences*lagged_te)+Ice___global_sea_lev)+~~ Crustal_adjustment)+Land_and_gsl) Nodelocation: 200,160 Nodesize: 48,20 Valuestate: 1,118,53,1024,667,1,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.08~ Ymaximum:0~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Numberformat: 1,F,4,3,0,0 Objective Av_sea_level_rise Title: Av Sea Level Rise Units: m Description: Sea level rise after 1990. Definition: Global_av_sea_level-Global_av_sea_leve1 Nodelocation: 200,352 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,80,48,611,502,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Av_sea_level_rise2, Alias Av_sea_level_rise1, Formnode~~ Av_sea_level_rise3 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.1,0.5,0.9]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 8 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,F,4,3,0,0 Constant Slr_mat Title: SLR Lat to UN matrix Definition: Table(Regions_12,Reg_index)(~ 0.1,0.85,0.05,0,0,~ 0,0,0.2,0.4,0.4,~ 0.5,0.5,0,0,0,~ 0.5,0.5,0,0,0,~ 0.5,0.5,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0.5,0.5,0,~ 0,0,0,0,1,~ 0,0,1,0,0,~ 0,0,1,0,0,~ 0,0,1,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,1,~ 0,1,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 352,288 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,50,70,760,494,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Reg_index,Regions_12] Objective Un_slr Title: Regional Sea Level Rise Units: m Description: This takes the SLR by latitude bands and back distributes~~ them to UN regions. Hooray! Definition: Sum( (Rsl* Slr_mat), Reg_index ) Nodelocation: 352,352 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,120,130 Valuestate: 1,200,129,573,387,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Al13, Formnode Regional_sea_level_r Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Module Glacial_me Title: Glacial melt~ contribution Description: Contribution to sea level change from mountain/small glac~~ iers and the polar ice caps. Based on Oerlemans[1993] and Meier[1993]~~ Author: Anand Patwardhan Date: Tue, Nov 29, 1994 2:48 PM Nodelocation: 352,160 Nodesize: 60,24 Diagstate: 1,286,53,588,431,1 Objective Ice___global_sea_lev Title: ICE & Global Sea Level Description: 1. Change the definition of 'ice___global_sea_lev'~ From:~ (((Alpine_mass_balance+Greenland_mass_balan)+West_antar)+Antarctic_ma~~ ss_bal)~ *Regional_dist~ To:~ (((Alpine_mass_balance+5*Greenland_mass_balan/1000)+West_antar)+5*Ant~~ arctic_~ mass_bal/-1000)*Regional_dist~ ~ 2. Change the definition of 'greenland_mass_balan'~ From: 5*cumulate(U_greenland*T_north, Time)/1000~ To: dynamic(U_greenland*T_north,~ greenland_mass_balan[time-1]+U_greenland*T_north)~ ~ 3. Change the definition of 'antarctic_mass_bal'~ From: 5*cumulate(t_south*Antarctic_mass_balan, time)/-1000~ To: dynamic(t_south*Antarctic_mass_balan , Antarctic_mass_bal[time~~ -1]+~ {missing ')'} Definition: (((Alpine_mass_balance+Greenland_mass_balan)+West_antar)+A~~ ntarctic_mass_bal)*Regional_dist Nodelocation: 272,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,353,122 Valuestate: 1,152,162,639,545,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.5~ Ymaximum:0.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Reg_index] Variable Greenland_mass_balan Title: Greenland Mass Balance Units: m Description: Sea level contribution from the Greenland ice cap. Definition: dynamic(scen_fill*0,~ (5*U_greenland*T_north)/1000 +~ Greenland_mass_balan[time-1]) Nodelocation: 168,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,152,97,663,498,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4m~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Alpine_mass_balance Title: Alpine~ Mass Balance Units: m Description: Contribution to sea level rise from mountain and other sm~~ all glaciers. Definition: (U_mount_melt*Global__t_from_1975) Nodelocation: 160,120 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,481,368 Valuestate: 1,280,290,568,453,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.5~ Ymaximum:0.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Antarctic_mass_bal Title: Antarctic~ mass balance Units: m Description: Sea level rise contribution from the Antartic mass balanc~~ e. Definition: dynamic(scen_fill*0,~ (5*t_south*Antarctic_mass_balan)/-1000 +~ Antarctic_mass_bal[time-1]) Nodelocation: 328,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,382,212 Valuestate: 1,83,262,647,400,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-5m~ Ymaximum:0~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable West_antar Title: West Antarctic~ sheet collapse Units: m Description: Sea level contributions due to possible collapse of the W~~ est Antarctic ice sheet. Definition: dynamic(scen_fill*0, if (T_south < collapse_t) then 0 else~~ (5*U_WA_Ice*T_south/1000 + west_antar[time - 1])) Nodelocation: 424,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,81,137 Valuestate: 1,164,56,548,561,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.02~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Constant Collapse_t Title: Collapse~ Threshold Units: °C Description: 55-90S temperature change at which the West Antarctic ic~~ e sheet collapse is assumed to begin. Definition: 5 Nodelocation: 464,224 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance U_mount_melt Title: Uncertainty in Mountain Melt Units: m Description: The available studies of Alpine contributions to Global S~~ ea Level (GSL) are for an assumed global temperature change of about ~~ 3.5°C. In order to make matters easierI have entered the range of val~~ ues estimated into an array from which we then sample. This array is ~~ later corrected using a simple linear transformation to derive Alpine~~ contributions to GSL for any given change in global temperature. Definition: fractiles(Studies_of_alpline_m) Nodelocation: 96,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,432,409,416,303,0,STAT Numberformat: 1,F,4,3,0,0 Reference: Table 9.9, IPCC WGI 1990. Chance U_greenland Title: Uncertainty in~ Greenland Units: mm/yr/°C Description: This node converts the table of sensitivity values from t~~ he IPCC SAR into a distribution of values for uncertainty analysis. Definition: Fractiles(Sensitivity_of_green) Nodelocation: 168,288 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,STAT Numberformat: 1,F,4,3,0,0 Chance U_wa_ice Title: Uncertainty in West Antartic Definition: Evaluate_p(uniform(-0.3, 0.7), Uf_slr) Nodelocation: 432,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Senstivity_of_antarc Title: Senstivity of Antarctic mass balance Units: mm/yr/°C Description: Sensitivity of the antarctic icesheet mass-balance to a o~~ ne degree change in temperature. Expressed here as the degree of SLR ~~ DECREASE.~ Definition: [0.20, 0.27, 0.34, 0.38, 0.70] Nodelocation: 328,360 Nodesize: 52,28 Reference: Table 7.6, IPCC WG1 1995. Chance Antarctic_mass_balan Title: Antarctic mass Balance Units: mm/yr/°C Description: Response of the antarctic mass balance to a 1 degree temp~~ erature change. Definition: Fractiles(Senstivity_of_antarc) Nodelocation: 328,288 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,429,123 Valuestate: 1,504,203,416,303,0,STAT Numberformat: 1,F,4,3,0,0 Chance Sensitivity_of_green Title: Sensitivity of Greenland mass balance Units: mm/yr/°C Description: I have taken the entries in Table 7.5 of the IPCC SAR WG~~ I report, made a uniform correction of 0.8mm/yr correction due to in~~ creased accumulation. Here, unlike the Antarctic number, the values r~~ epresent rates of INCREASE in SLR. Definition: [0.21, 0.22, 0.24, 0.28, 0.39, 0.59] Nodelocation: 168,360 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,337,209 Reference: Table 7.5 IPCC SAR WGI. Chance Studies_of_alpline_m Title: Studies of Alpline Mass Balance Units: m Description: The available studies of Alpine contributions to Global S~~ ea Level (GSL) are for an assumed global temperature change of about ~~ 3.5°C. In order to make matters easierI have entered the range of val~~ ues estimated into an array from which we then sample. This array is ~~ later corrected using a simple linear transformation to derive Alpine~~ contributions to GSL for any given change in global temperature. Definition: [12, 17.5, 20, 20, 23, 24.5, 50]/(3.5*100) Nodelocation: 72,32 Nodesize: 52,28 Reference: Table 9.9, IPCC WGI 1990. Variable Regional_dist Title: Regional Distribution of Meltwater Description: Sea level does not rise uniformly with melting of glacier~~ s. Definition: Table(Reg_index)(~ 0,0.8,1,1.1,1.2) Nodelocation: 272,40 Nodesize: 52,28 Defnstate: 1,630,295,416,303,0,MIDM Close Glacial_me Module Temperature_changes Title: Temperature~ Changes Description: Module contains different temperatures from ICAM Author: Anand Patwardhan Date: Tue, Nov 29, 1994 6:10 PM Nodelocation: 352,88 Nodesize: 60,24 Diagstate: 1,120,106,416,243,1 Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-26215 Variable Global__t_from_1975 Title: Global ±T from 1975 Units: °C Description: Global mean temperature change, relative to the starting ~~ year. Definition: (Global_average__t-Global_t_1975) Nodelocation: 256,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,486,169 Valuestate: 1,118,81,637,560,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Numberformat: 1,F,4,3,0,0 Variable T_north Title: Northern Lat Temp Units: °C Description: Northern latitude temperature change for Greenland is tak~~ en to be equivalent to that being experienced in FSU Asia. Definition: dynamic(Slice(regional_dt,regions_12, 5) -T_north_75, Slic~~ e(regional_dt,regions_12, 5) -T_north_75) Nodelocation: 256,112 Nodesize: 52,20 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable T_south Title: S Lat Temp Units: °C Description: This is the temperature change being experienced in and a~~ round the Antarctic. I have made the assumption that these temperatu~~ res are not impacted by anthropogenic aerosols. Definition: dynamic(Slice(Latitudinal_dt,Latitudes,7)-T_south_75, Slic~~ e(Latitudinal_dt,Latitudes,7)-T_south_75) Nodelocation: 256,176 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,415,469,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Global_t_1975 Title: Global ±T 1975 Units: °C Description: Global mean temperature change, relative to the starting ~~ year. Definition: dynamic(slice(Global_average__t, time, 1), Global_t_1975[t~~ ime-1]) Nodelocation: 136,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,128,385,820,374,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable T_north_75 Title: Northern Lat Temp Units: °C Description: Northern latitude temperature change for Greenland is tak~~ en to be equivalent to that being experienced in FSU Asia. Definition: dynamic(Slice(regional_dt,regions_12, 5), T_north_75[time-~~ 1]) Nodelocation: 136,112 Nodesize: 52,20 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable T_south_75 Title: S Lat Temp Units: °C Description: This is the temperature change being experienced in and a~~ round the Antarctic. I have made the assumption that these temperatu~~ res are not impacted by anthropogenic aerosols. Definition: dynamic(Slice(Latitudinal_dt,Latitudes,7), t_south_75[time~~ -1]) Nodelocation: 136,176 Nodesize: 52,20 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:10~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Temperature_changes Variable Global_av_sea_level Title: Global Av Sea Level Rise Definition: sum(rsl,Reg_index)/5 Nodelocation: 200,248 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,248,258,495,483,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Global_av_sea_leve1 Title: Global Av Sea Level Rise in 1990 Definition: dynamic(Global_av_sea_level, Global_av_sea_level, Global_a~~ v_sea_level, Global_av_sea_level,Global_av_sea_leve1[time-1]) Nodelocation: 80,296 Nodesize: 52,28 Reformval: [Time,Run] Module Land_and_water_use Title: Land and Water Use Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Mon, Jun 28, 1999 9:06 pm Nodelocation: 352,224 Nodesize: 60,24 Diagstate: 1,216,226,449,243,17 Nodecolor: 1,-13109,26212 Chance Groundwater_depletio Title: Groundwater Depletion Units: m/yr Description: The extraction of fossil water leads to local subsidence,~~ but also brings that water into the hydrological cycle and affects G~~ SL. These activities raise sea level. Definition: uniform(0.07, 0.38)/1000 Nodelocation: 104,48 Nodesize: 52,20 Reference: Sahagian, D. L., F. W. Schwartz and D. K. Jacobs (1994). "D~~ irect anthropogenic contributions to sea level rise in the twentieth ~~ century." Nature 367(6 January): 54-7.~ Chance Surface_reservoirs Title: Surface Reservoirs Units: m/yr Description: Collection of water in surface reservoirs interrupts the ~~ hydrological cycle and the normal reservoir (the oceans) are depleted~~ in the water being kept back. This activity decreases GSL. Definition: uniform(-0.09, -0.54)/1000 Nodelocation: 104,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Reference: Sahagian, D. L., F. W. Schwartz and D. K. Jacobs (1994). "D~~ irect anthropogenic contributions to sea level rise in the twentieth ~~ century." Nature 367(6 January): 54-7.~ Chance Deforestation Title: Deforestation Units: m/yr Description: Forests and their soils are significant reservoirs of wat~~ er. Their destruction leads to this water being released to the ocean~~ s. Deforestation also reduces evapotranspiration. Therefore GSL is in~~ creased by deforestation. Definition: normal(0,0.05)/1000 Nodelocation: 104,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Reference: Sahagian, D. L., F. W. Schwartz and D. K. Jacobs (1994). "D~~ irect anthropogenic contributions to sea level rise in the twentieth ~~ century." Nature 367(6 January): 54-7.~ Chance Wetlands Title: Wetlands Units: m/yr Description: Wetland losses also increase sea level. Only a lower boun~~ d for this contribution to GSL is given. Definition: 0.01/1000 Nodelocation: 240,48 Nodesize: 52,20 Reference: Sahagian, D. L., F. W. Schwartz and D. K. Jacobs (1994). "D~~ irect anthropogenic contributions to sea level rise in the twentieth ~~ century." Nature 367(6 January): 54-7.~ Chance Other Title: Other Description: Ice-rich permafrost may contain up to twice as much wate~~ r as the same soil in a thawed state. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 240,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Objective Land_and_gsl Title: Land and Global Sea Level Definition: Dynamic((((Deforestation+Groundwater_depletio)+Surface_res~~ ervoirs)+Wetlands),((((Deforestation+Groundwater_depletio)+Surface_re~~ servoirs)+Wetlands)+Land_and_gsl[Time-1])) Nodelocation: 240,160 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,216,226,615,500,1,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.01~ Ymaximum:0.01~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Close Land_and_water_use Constant Regional_isostatics Title: Regional Isostatics Units: mm/year Description: Local trend in relative sea level. Depends on the geograp~~ hic region. Definition: Table(Reg_index)(~ -1.5,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 80,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,89,97,416,303,0,MIDM Variable Crustal_adjustment Title: Crustal Adjustment Units: m Description: This accounts for post glacial rebound continuing to affe~~ ct previously glaciated regions. Definition: (((Time-1975)*Regional_isostatics)/1000) Nodelocation: 80,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Reg_index] Module Thermal_expansion Title: Thermal Expansion Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Mon, Jun 28, 1999 9:06 pm Nodelocation: 200,88 Nodesize: 56,28 Diagstate: 1,437,243,462,333,17 Nodecolor: -1,-13109,-2 Variable Regional_differences Title: Regional Differences in Thermal Expansion Description: Parameter to scale global mean sea level change, dependin~~ g on the geographical region. This captures the regional inhomogenity~~ in thermal expansion. Definition: Table(Reg_index)(~ 0.6,1,1.1,1,0.7) Nodelocation: 160,216 Nodesize: 60,28 Variable Msl Title: Thermal expansion~ contribution Units: meters Description: Global mean sea level change due to thermal expansion. Fu~~ nction of temperature change, so driven by forecast for delta T from ~~ physical climate module of ICAM-2. Definition: ((A_slr*Global__t_from_1975)+(Exp(B_slr)*(Global__t_from_1~~ 975^2))) Nodelocation: 160,80 Nodesize: 48,28 Windstate: 1,104,114 Valuestate: 1,248,258,491,361,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.5~ Ymaximum:0.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0 Chance A_slr Title: Coeff. A Description: Coefficient in quadratic fit of global msl change as a fu~~ nction of global mean temperature change. Definition: evaluate_p(Normal( 0.0647, 0.00977 ), uf_slr) Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 48,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,SAMP Chance B_slr Title: Coeff. B Description: Coefficient in quadratic fit of global msl change as a fu~~ nction of global mean temperature change. Definition: Evaluate_p(Normal( -5.3, 0.4 ), Uf_slr) Nodelocation: 160,24 Nodesize: 48,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,SAMP Chance Msl_change_1900 Title: MSL change since 1900 Units: m Description: Coefficient in quadratic fit of global msl change as a fu~~ nction of global mean temperature change. Definition: Triangular( .10, .18, .25 ) Nodelocation: 272,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,392,402,416,303,0,MIDM Reference: Table 7.7, IPCC 1995, WGI Chance Lagged_te Title: Lagged TE Definition: dynamic(scen_fill, lagged_te[time-1]-5/Tau_climat1*(Lagged~~ _te[time-1]-msl)) Nodelocation: 160,144 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,393,174 Valuestate: 1,290,179,576,562,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Numberformat: 1,F,4,2,0,0 Close Thermal_expansion Close Slc Index Reg_index Title: Global~ Latitude~ Bands Description: ICAM-2 index corresponding to the geographical region. Cu~~ rrent divisions are: high-latitude, mid-latitude and low-latitude (eq~~ uatorial). Definition: ['50N-75N','30N-50N','0-30N','30S-0','55S-30S'] Nodelocation: 168,248 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,5,60 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['50N-75N','30N-50N','0-30N','30S-0','55S-~~ 30S']} Module Adaptation Title: Protection Description: Sub-model to represent options to protect against sea lev~~ el change. The net loss associated with sea level change is dependent~~ on the choice of protection. Author: Anand Patwardhan Date: Sun, Mar 27, 1994 12:51 PM Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 240,48 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,201,40,381,219,3 Fontstyle: Arial, 10 Variable Protect_costs Title: Protection~ costs Units: Million U.S. $'s Description: Costs associated with the choice of a protection option. Definition: Table(Case_studies,Protect,Slr_scenario)(~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,35K,100K,300K,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,50,86.9,150,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,25.5,43.23,104.2,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,24.5,47.5,97.5,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,7,14.5,28~ ) Nodelocation: 104,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,186,45 Defnstate: 1,277,273,581,296,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,152,162,466,292,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Slr_scenario,Case_studies] Reformval: [Slr_scenario,Case_studies] Numberformat: 1,F,4,2,1,0 Variable Global_protection Title: Global Protection Costs Description: Protection costs aggregated according to the UN regions.~~ Definition: Sum((protect_costs_interp*protect_scaling), case_studies) Nodelocation: 256,144 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,5,40,463,229,1,MIDM Reformval: [Slr_scenario,Regions_12] Constant Protect_scaling Title: Protection Cost~ Scaling Table Definition: Table(Case_studies,Regions_12)(~ 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,~ 0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,~ 0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 256,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,50,46,730,383,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Regions_12,Case_studies] Variable Protect_costs_interp Title: Interpolated~ Protection Costs Units: Million U.S. $'s Description: Protection costs, interpolated between the SLR scenarios,~~ according to the actual amount of sea level change. It is important ~~ to note that this may be a bit of an artifice, since protection costs~~ may change in discrete amounts, and not smoothly with sea level chan~~ ge. Definition: Sum((renormalize_all*Linearinterp(Slr_scenario,protect_cos~~ ts,Rsl)),Reg_index) Nodelocation: 104,144 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Case_studies] Decision Protect Title: Coastal protection~ decision Description: Decision variable that corresponds to the choice of a coa~~ stal protection decision.~ Typically no protection corresponds to a do-nothing scenario, partial~~ protection corresponds to protecting highly developed/key areas, whi~~ le full protection is just that. Definition: ['No Protection','Protection'] Nodelocation: 104,24 Nodesize: 56,20 Windstate: 1,136,216 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['No Protection','Protection']} Close Adaptation Index Protect_cases Title: Protection~ Case Studies Description: Nations for which we have information regarding costs for~~ full and partial protection as regards sea level change. Definition: ['U.S. (1)','Netherlands (1)','Uruguay (2)','Senegal (3)',~~ 'Poland (7)'] Nodelocation: 264,248 Nodesize: 48,20 Module Impacts1 Title: Impacts Description: Sub-model to evaluate the impacts of relative sea level c~~ hange. Impacts include market impacts - $ values of loss of land and ~~ property and non-market impacts associated with loss of wetlands and ~~ population affected. Impacts are conditioned on the adaptation polici~~ es, and on the local characteristics that is, there are different los~~ s functions associated with industrialized and less-industrialized na~~ tions. Author: Anand Patwardhan Date: Sun, Mar 27, 1994 12:51 PM Nodelocation: 240,160 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,249,42,387,285,3 Module Case_study_impacts Title: Case Study~ Impacts Description: This sub-model just holds the various case study impact v~~ ariables. Author: Anand Patwardhan Date: Wed, May 18, 1994 2:54 PM Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 80,88 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,151,126,477,507,1 Fontstyle: Arial, 10 Chance Impacts_mkt_case_no Title: Case Study~ Market Impacts~ (No Protection) Units: Million U.S. $'s Description: Losses to property and other market resources due to sea ~~ level change, assessed for specific case studies and sea level rise s~~ cenarios. Definition: Table(Case_studies,Slr_scenario)(~ 0,128K,270K,576K,~ 0,70K,186K,250K,~ 0,183.1,1818,3052,~ 0,2350,4758,5778,~ 0,404.5,603,926.5,~ 0,435,869.4,2173,~ 0,20K,50K,130K,~ 0,12K,24K,48K~ ) Nodelocation: 64,40 Nodesize: 52,24 Defnstate: 1,97,113,485,235,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,152,162,513,250,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Slr_scenario,Case_studies] Reformval: [Slr_scenario,Case_studies] Numberformat: 1,F,4,2,1,0 Chance Impacts_land_case_no Title: Case Study~ Land Impacts~ (No Protection) Units: sq. km. Description: Loss of dryland and wetland due to inundation and erosion~~ caused by sea level change assessed for specific case study regions ~~ and sea level rise scenarios. Definition: Table(Case_studies,Slr_scenario)(~ 0,13.601K,19.78K,30.189K,~ 0,1000,2807,6000,~ 0,41.6,82.9,166.6,~ 0,2000,4200,5600,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,5000,8064,19.008K,~ 0,50K,125.8K,180K,~ 0,800,1736,3000~ ) Nodelocation: 64,168 Nodesize: 52,24 Defnstate: 1,162,51,461,228,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Slr_scenario,Slr_scenario] Chance Impacts_pop_case_no Title: Case Study~ Population Impacts~ (No Protection) Description: Number of people affected due to loss of land as well as ~~ other effects such as changes in agricultural patterns and so on, ass~~ essed for specific case study regions, and sea level rise scenarios. Definition: Table(Case_studies,Slr_scenario)(~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,12K,24K,48K,~ 0,0,0,0,~ 0,3M,7.574M,9.4675M,~ 0,85.5K,143.5K,246.5K,~ 0,2M,5.78M,18.496M,~ 0,36M,72.37M,130M,~ 0,100K,196.4K,250K~ ) Nodelocation: 64,104 Nodesize: 52,24 Defnstate: 1,34,40,477,243,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Slr_scenario,Slr_scenario] Reformval: [Slr_scenario,Case_studies] Chance Red_mkt Title: Reduction in~ market impacts Description: Percentage reduction in market impacts with protection. T~~ he reduction depends upon the particular protection case study as wel~~ l as the extent of RSL change. The motivation being that the effectiv~~ eness of the protection depends not only upon the location but also u~~ pon the extent of sea level change. Definition: Table(Case_studies,Slr_scenario)(~ 0,0.05,0.075,0.1,~ 0,0.05,0.075,0.1,~ 0,0.075,0.1,0.15,~ 0,1,1,1,~ 0,0.075,0.1,0.15,~ 0,1,1,1,~ 0,1,1,1,~ 0,0.075,0.1,0.15~ ) Nodelocation: 336,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,81,83,522,249,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,72,82,479,432,1,MIDM Reformdef: [Slr_scenario,Case_studies] Reformval: [Slr_scenario,Case_studies] Chance Red_pop Title: Reduction in~ population impacts Description: Percentage reduction in population impacts with protectio~~ n. The reduction depends upon the particular protection case study as~~ well as the extent of RSL change. The motivation being that the effe~~ ctiveness of the protection depends not only upon the location but al~~ so upon the extent of sea level change. Definition: Table(Case_studies,Slr_scenario)(~ 0,0.025,0.05,0.075,~ 0,0.025,0.05,0.075,~ 0,0.075,0.1,0.15,~ 1,1,1,1,~ 0,0.075,0.1,0.15,~ 1,1,1,1,~ 1,1,1,1,~ 0,0.05,0.075,0.125~ ) Nodelocation: 328,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,42,74,562,276,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Slr_scenario,Protect_cases] Chance Impacts_mkt_case Title: Case Study~ Market Impacts Definition: array(protect, [impacts_mkt_case_no, impacts_mkt_case_no*r~~ ed_mkt]) Nodelocation: 192,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,81,52,489,252,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,88,87,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Slr_scenario,Case_studies] Chance Impacts_pop_case Title: Case Study~ Population Impacts Definition: array(protect, [impacts_pop_case_no, impacts_pop_case_no*r~~ ed_pop]) Nodelocation: 200,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Slr_scenario,Case_studies] Chance Impacts_land_case Title: Case Study~ Land Impacts Definition: array(protect, [impacts_land_case_no, impacts_land_case_no~~ ]) Nodelocation: 192,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Index Slr_case_studies_ipc Title: SLR Case Studies IPCC SAR Definition: ['Antigua','Argentina','Bangladesh','Belize','Benin','Chin~~ a','Egypt','Guyana','India','Japan','Kiribati','Malaysia','Marshall I~~ sl','Mauritius','The Netherlands','Nigeria','Poland','Senegal','St Ki~~ tts-Nevis','Tonga','United States','Uruguay','Venezuela'] Nodelocation: 72,240 Nodesize: 52,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Antigua','Argentina','Bangladesh','Beliz~~ e','Benin','China','Egypt','Guyana','India','Japan','Kiribati','Malay~~ sia','Marshall Isl','Mauritius','The Netherlands','Nigeria','Poland',~~ 'Senegal','St Kitts-Nevis','Tonga','United States','Uruguay','Venezu~~ ela']} Index People_slr_index Title: People SLR index Definition: ['000 of people','% of total'] Nodelocation: 168,240 Nodesize: 52,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['000 of people','% of total']} Chance Slr_people_studies Title: SLR-people studies Definition: Table(Slr_case_studies_ipc,People_slr_index)(~ 38,50,~ 0,0,~ 71K,6,~ 70,35,~ 1350,25,~ 72K,7,~ 4700,9,~ 600,80,~ 7100,1,~ 15.4K,15,~ 9,100,~ 0,0,~ 20,100,~ 3,0.5,~ 10K,67,~ 3200,4,~ 240,1,~ 110,0.5,~ 0,0,~ 30,47,~ 0,0,~ 13,0.5,~ 56,0.5~ ) Nodelocation: 168,288 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,461,266,401,474,0,MIDM Reformdef: [People_slr_index,Slr_case_studies_ipc] Index Capital_slr_index Title: Capital SLR Index Definition: ['Millions US$','%GNP'] Nodelocation: 264,240 Nodesize: 52,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Millions US$','%GNP']} Chance Slr_capital_studies Title: SLR-capital studies Definition: Table(Slr_case_studies_ipc,Capital_slr_index)(~ 0,0,~ 5000,5,~ 0,0,~ 0,0,~ 118,12,~ 0,0,~ 59K,204,~ 4000,1115,~ 0,0,~ 849K,72,~ 2,8,~ 0,0,~ 160,324,~ 0,0,~ 186K,69,~ 17K,52,~ 22K,24,~ 500,12,~ 0,0,~ 0,0,~ 0,0,~ 1700,26,~ 330,1~ ) Nodelocation: 264,288 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,201,188 Defnstate: 1,104,114,414,573,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Capital_slr_index,Slr_case_studies_ipc] Index Land_slr_index Title: Land SLR Index Definition: ['sq km','% of total'] Nodelocation: 360,240 Nodesize: 52,20 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['sq km','% of total']} Chance Slr_land_studies Title: SLR-land studies Definition: Table(Slr_case_studies_ipc,Land_slr_index)(~ 5,1,~ 340,0.1,~ 25K,17.5,~ 1900,8.4,~ 230,0.2,~ 35K,0,~ 5800,1,~ 2400,1.1,~ 5800,0.4,~ 2300,0.6,~ 4,12.5,~ 7000,2.1,~ 9,80,~ 5,0.3,~ 2165,5.9,~ 18.6K,2,~ 1700,0.5,~ 6100,3.1,~ 1,1.4,~ 7,2.9,~ 31.6K,0.3,~ 96,0.1,~ 5700,0.6~ ) Nodelocation: 360,288 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,200,210,395,560,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Land_slr_index,Slr_case_studies_ipc] Chance Slr_wetland_loss Title: SLR-wetland loss Units: sq km Definition: Table(Slr_case_studies_ipc)(~ 3,1100,5800,0,85,0,0,500,0,0,0,6000,0,0,642,16K,36,6000,1,0,17K,23,56~~ 00) Nodelocation: 64,328 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,198,226,377,482,0,MIDM Chance Slr_adaptation Title: SLR-adaptation Units: Million US$ Definition: Table(Slr_case_studies_ipc)(~ 71,1800,1000,0,400,0,13.1K,200,0,156K,3,0,360,0,12.3K,1400,1400,1000,~~ 50,0,156K,1000,1600) Nodelocation: 64,288 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,198,226,377,482,0,MIDM Close Case_study_impacts Module Interpolated_impacts Title: Interpolated~ Impacts Description: This sub-model just holds the case study impact variables~~ , but interpolated with respect to sea level rise scenarios. Author: Anand Patwardhan Date: Wed, May 18, 1994 2:54 PM Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 192,88 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,133,99,348,246,1 Fontstyle: Arial, 10 Chance Impacts_mkt_interp Title: Interpolated~ Market Impacts Units: Million U.S. $'s Description: Case study market impacts, interpolated according to the ~~ amount of RSL change. Definition: Sum((Renormalize_all*Linearinterp(Slr_scenario,Impacts_mkt~~ _case,Rsl)),Reg_index) Nodelocation: 64,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,82,59 Defnstate: 1,40,50,648,445,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,174,63,552,533,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:200K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Time,Protect] Chance Impacts_land_interp Title: Interpolated~ land impacts Units: sq. km. Description: Case study land loss impacts, interpolated according to t~~ he amount of RSL change. Definition: Sum((renormalize_all*Linearinterp(Slr_scenario,Impacts_lan~~ d_case,Rsl)),Reg_index) Nodelocation: 64,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Case_studies] Chance Impacts_pop_interp Title: Interpolated~ pop. impacts Description: Case study population impacts, interpolated according to ~~ the amount of RSL change. Definition: Sum((renormalize_all*Linearinterp(Slr_scenario,Impacts_pop~~ _case,Rsl)),Reg_index) Nodelocation: 64,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,434,328,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Case_studies] Close Interpolated_impacts Constant Renormalize_all Title: Renormalize Description: Table with weighting coefficients to assign the appropria~~ te relative sea level change outcome while interpolating impacts as w~~ ell as protection costs. Definition: Table(Reg_index,Case_studies)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 1,1,0,0,0,0,1,1,~ 0,0,0,1,0.5,1,0,0,~ 0,0,1,0,0.5,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 192,24 Nodesize: 48,20 Defnstate: 1,63,179,613,324,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,185,239,587,303,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Reg_index,Case_studies] Reformval: [Reg_index,Case_studies] Module Aggregate_impacts Title: Global~ Impacts Description: This sub-model merely holds the variables that correspond~~ to the globally aggregated impacts in the three impact categories. Author: Anand Date: Thu, May 19, 1994 2:32 PM Nodelocation: 192,144 Nodesize: 48,20 Diagstate: 1,150,86,420,351,1 Chance Mkt_scaling Title: Market Impacts~ Scaling Table Description: Table contains coefficients to scale the case study marke~~ t impacts to get globally aggregated values. Definition: Table(Case_studies,Regions_12)(~ 1.1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0,~ 0,0,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,0,2,~ 0,80,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,5,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,15,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.1,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 200,40 Nodesize: 48,24 Defnstate: 1,64,217,640,331,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,42,206,759,305,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Regions_12,Case_studies] Reformval: [Regions_12,Case_studies] Chance Land_scaling Title: Land Loss Impacts~ Scaling Table Description: Table contains coefficients to scale the case study land ~~ loss impacts to get globally aggregated values. Definition: Table(Case_studies,Regions_12)(~ 1.1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,~ 0,0,5,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,~ 0,5,0,0,0,0,10,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,5,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,15,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.2,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,4,10,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 200,104 Nodesize: 48,28 Defnstate: 1,115,89,662,439,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Regions_12,Case_studies] Reformval: [Regions_12,Case_studies] Chance Pop_scaling Title: Population Impacts~ Scaling Table Description: Table contains coefficients to scale the case study popul~~ ation impacts to get globally aggregated values. Definition: Table(Case_studies,Regions_12)(~ 1.1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.7,0.1,0,~ 0,0,10,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,15,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,8,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,12,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,1.2,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,20,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 200,176 Nodesize: 48,28 Defnstate: 1,3,56,750,353,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,44,143,714,314,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Regions_12,Case_studies] Reformval: [Regions_12,Case_studies] Chance Regional_slr_on_stru Title: Regional SLR on Structures Units: U.S. $'s Description: Globally aggregated market impacts. Definition: Dynamic((1M*Sum((Impacts_mkt_interp*Mkt_scaling),Case_stud~~ ies)),((Cumulative_gdp_growt[Time-1]*1M)*Sum((Impacts_mkt_interp*Mkt_~~ scaling),Case_studies))) Nodelocation: 80,40 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,147,405 Valuestate: 1,128,52,722,496,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:2~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4T~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Numberformat: 1,E,2,2,0,0 Chance Regional_slr_on_land Title: Regional SLR on Land Units: sq. km. Description: Globally aggregated loss of land. Definition: Sum(( impacts_land_interp* land_scaling ), case_studies) Nodelocation: 80,104 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,458,329,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Regional_slr_on_popu Title: Regional SLR on Populations Description: Globally aggregated impacts on population. Definition: dynamic(Cum_pop_gro*Sum(( impacts_pop_interp* pop_scaling)~~ , case_studies), Cum_pop_gro*Sum(( impacts_pop_interp* pop_scaling), ~~ case_studies)) Nodelocation: 80,176 Nodesize: 52,24 Valuestate: 1,125,154,610,424,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Distresol:2~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:200K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Reformval: [Time,Protect] Numberformat: 1,E,2,2,0,0 Objective Total_land Title: Land inundated by SLR Definition: Dynamic(Sum(Regional_slr_on_land,Regions_12),Sum(Regional_~~ slr_on_land,Regions_12)) Nodelocation: 200,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,216,226,534,459,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Land_inundated_by_sl Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:200K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Numberformat: 1,F,4,2,0,0 Objective Total_prop Title: Structures lost to SLR Definition: Dynamic(Sum(Regional_slr_on_stru,Regions_12),Sum(Regional_~~ slr_on_stru,Regions_12)) Nodelocation: 312,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,159,123,587,540,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Structures_lost_to_s Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20T~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Protect,Time] Numberformat: 1,I,4,0,0,0 Objective Total_pop_slr Title: Population affected by SLR Definition: Dynamic(Sum(Regional_slr_on_popu,Regions_12),Sum(Regional_~~ slr_on_popu,Regions_12)) Nodelocation: 80,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,152,162,528,471,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Population_affected_ Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:400M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Numberformat: 1,F,4,2,0,0 Close Aggregate_impacts Close Impacts1 Objective Net_loss_slr Title: Net~ loss Units: $'s Description: Net loss - depends on protection costs and loss due to se~~ a level change. Definition: Dynamic((Regional_slr_on_stru+Global_protection),((Regiona~~ l_slr_on_stru+Global_protection)-(Regional_slr_on_stru[Time-1]+Global~~ _protection[Time-1]))) Nodelocation: 360,72 Nodesize: 48,20 Windstate: 1,316,310 Valuestate: 1,108,42,588,455,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-100G~ Ymaximum:100G~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Index Slr_scenario Title: SLR~ Scenario Units: meters Description: Literature studies of the impacts are usually based on sp~~ ecific scenarios of sea level rise. The most common scenarios are for~~ sea level rise of 0, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 meters. Definition: [0,0.5,1,2] Nodelocation: 72,248 Nodesize: 48,20 Numberformat: 1,D,4,2,1,0 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: [0,0.5,1,2]} Index Case_studies Title: Case~ Studies Description: Case studies of impacts and protection costs. Not all nat~~ ions in this list have data for all the impacts or the protection cos~~ ts, for these nations, the entries in the corresponding impact and pr~~ otection cost tables are NA's. Definition: ['U.S.','Netherlands','Uruguay','Egypt','Senegal','Banglad~~ esh','China','Poland'] Nodelocation: 356,248 Nodesize: 48,20 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,0,MIDM {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['U.S.','Netherlands','Uruguay','Egypt','S~~ enegal','Bangladesh','China','Poland']} Objective Slr_market_loss Title: SLR Market Losses Units: fraction of GDP Definition: dynamic(unc_un_scen, if Adaptation_sw = 'NO' then ~ slice(Net_loss_slr, protect, 1)/Economic_activity_by~ else ~ slice(Net_loss_slr, protect, 2)/Economic_activity_by) Nodelocation: 360,120 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,200,210,667,502,1,MEAN Aliases: Alias Slr_market_losses Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-0.01~ Ymaximum:0.01~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close Coastal_im1 Objective Monitized_impacts Title: Monitized Impacts Definition: Dynamic((Market_impacts_by_r1+Regional_n),(Market_impacts_~~ by_r1+Regional_n)) Nodelocation: 200,232 Nodesize: 52,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,427,356 Valuestate: 1,72,82,794,601,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Al9 Nodecolor: -26215,-26215,-1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:2~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:4~ Linestyle:9~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:13~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1T~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Nodefont: Arial, 12 Reformval: [Regions_12,Intervention] Module Urban_health_effects Title: Urban Health Effects Description: This module was originally created for the Tracking Analy~~ sis Framework, sponsored by DoE and used by NAPAP for an assessment o~~ f the 1900 CAAA and its effects on acid precipitation in North Americ~~ a.~ ~ The Health module uses ambient concentrations of pollutants and demog~~ raphics in concentration-response functions to estimate the number of~~ health impacts avoided by the comparison scenario.~ ~ Key assumptions include:~ The urban populations around the world respond in a similar manner to~~ those used to generate the concentration response functions.~ Synergistic effects between S species exposure and other pollutant ex~~ posure are not considered here.~ A one-box model is used. That is, urban areas generate a fixed perce~~ ntage of all pollutants, and the same quantity of pollutants, on aver~~ age, remains in the urban area. Author: Krupnick, Farrell, Sonnenblick (adapted to ICAM{missing ')'} Date: Tue, Aug 15, 1995 9:43 AM Saveauthor: RichS Savedate: Sun, Sep 15, 1996 11:52 AM Defaultsize: 48,20 Nodelocation: 328,96 Nodesize: 56,44 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,460,163,547,361,1 Icon: (00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 ~~ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 1C 03 80 70 3E 07 C0 F8 3E 07 C0 F8 ~~ 3E 07 C0 F8 1C 03 80 70 3E 07 C0 F8 7F 0F E1 FC FF 9F F3 FE FF 9F F3 ~~ FE FF 9F F3 FE FF 9F F3 FE FF 9F F3 FE 3E 07 C0 F8 3E 07 C0 F8 36 06 ~~ C0 D8 36 06 C0 D8 36 06 C0 D8 36 06 C0 D8 36 06 C0 D8 00 00 00 00 00 ~~ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 ) Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Diagramcolor: -8739,-8739,-8739 Nodefont: Helvetica, 12 Library Indices1 Title: Indices Description: The Public Index Library module contains all the common i~~ ndex variables. Every index identifying a dimension of an input or o~~ utput array of a TAF module appears in this library. Notify and confi~~ rm all index changes with Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. Author: Lumina Decision Systems Date: Tue, Mar 7, 1995 7:41 Saveauthor: RichS Savedate: Sat, Sep 14, 1996 10:15 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 80,296 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0 Diagstate: 1,135,156,369,211,0 Windstate: 1,391,402 Nodecolor: -1,-13108,26214 Diagramcolor: -8739,-8739,-8739 Fontstyle: Arial, 12 Pagesetup: (00030000004800480000000002DA0228FFE1FFE202F902460347052803~~ FC00020000004800480000000002DA022800010000006400000001000303030000000~~ 1270F0001000100000000000000000000000068080019019000000000000000000000~~ 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000) Library Mo1 Title: Health Function Library Description: Developer-defined functions used in the RFF Health Effect~~ s Module. Author: Krupnick, Farrell Date: Wed, May 15, 1996 10:47 AM Nodelocation: 88,32 Nodesize: 64,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,103,94,467,144,17 Nodecolor: -1,-11469,19661 Function Percent_change(B, x, Base_cases) Title: B*x*base_cases Description: Linear model in which the response coefficient represents~~ a percent change in the base-rate of illness.~ ~ B = percent change in base-rate given a unit change in pollutant conc~~ entration~ Chg_pollutant = absolute change in pollutant concentration~ Base_cases = the number of base cases in the population, annually Definition: B*x*Base_cases Nodelocation: 112,88 Nodesize: 80,20 Windstate: 1,-506,197 Paramnames: B,x,Base_cases Function Ter3(B, x, Base_cases) Title: Base_cases*(exp(b*x)-1) Description: Given a logistic coefficient "b," this converts the logis~~ tic coefficient to "relative risk," which expresses the percent incre~~ ase or decrease in the base rate of incidence, then multiplies that f~~ raction by the population's base incidence to get the change in incid~~ ence given a change in concentration x.~ ~ B = logistic coefficient~ Chg_pollutant = absolute change in pollutant concentration~ Base_cases = base number of cases in the population Definition: Base_cases*(exp(B*x)-1) Nodelocation: 112,40 Nodesize: 80,20 Windstate: 1,90,197 Paramnames: B,x,Base_cases Function Linear_model(B, x, Affected_population) Title: B*x*pop Description: Linear model in which the response coefficient represents~~ a change in the total number of cases in the population.~ ~ B = absolute change incidence rate given a unit change in pollutant ~~ concentration~ Chg_pollutant = abolute change in pollutant concentration~ Affected_population = number of people potentially affected by illnes~~ s or symptom, or population to which original study has been extrapol~~ ated Definition: B*x*Affected_population Nodelocation: 272,40 Nodesize: 76,20 Paramnames: B,x,Affected_population Close Mo1 Index So2_so4 Title: SO2 SO4 Definition: ['SO2','Sulfate'] Nodelocation: 96,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,280,290 Nodecolor: -13109,-9111,-1 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['SO2','Sulfate']} Index Hb_pope Title: HB-Pope Definition: ['HB','Pope'] Nodelocation: 184,96 Nodesize: 48,20 Nodecolor: -13109,-9111,-1 Index Hat_cl_moolg Title: Hat-CL-Moolg Definition: ['Hatzak','CL','Moolgav'] Nodelocation: 272,96 Nodesize: 48,20 Nodecolor: -13109,-9111,-1 Index Nox_morbidity_index Title: NOx Morbidity Index Definition: ['Phlegm Days','Eye Irritation Days'] Nodelocation: 176,136 Nodesize: 48,20 Windstate: 1,15,46 Nodecolor: -13109,-9111,-1 Index Sulfate_morb_index Title: Sulfate Morbidity Index Definition: ['Adult Chronic Bronchitis Cases','Respiratory Hospital Ad~~ missions','Cardiac Hospital Admissions','Asthma Symptom Days','Restri~~ cted Activity Days','Lower Respiratory Symptom Days'] Nodelocation: 264,136 Nodesize: 48,20 Windstate: 1,173,146 Nodecolor: -13109,-9111,-1 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Adult Chronic Bronchitis Cases','Respira~~ tory Hospital Admissions','Cardiac Hospital Admissions','Asthma Sympt~~ om Days','Restricted Activity Days','Lower Respiratory Symptom Days']~~ } Index So2_morbidity_index Title: SO2 Morbidity Index Definition: ['Child Cough Days','Adult Chest Discomfort Days'] Nodelocation: 88,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,84,72 Nodecolor: -13109,-9111,-1 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Child Cough Days','Adult Chest Discomfor~~ t Days']} Close Indices1 Module Pollutant_conc__ Title: Pollutant Conc.~ Author: Krupnick, Mansur, Farrell Date: Thu, May 2, 1996 9:50 AM Nodelocation: 64,96 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,185,172,549,192,17 Variable Chg_so2 Title: Delta annual mean SO2 Units: ug/m3 Description: Change in annual mean SO2.~ ~ SO2_bc[bc='Comparison']-SO2_bc[bc='Baseline'] Definition: Slice(Delta_conc,So2_so4,1) Nodelocation: 432,32 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,148,199 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 0,-26215,-26215 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Chg_so4 Title: Delta annual mean SO4 Units: ug/m3 Description: Change in annual mean SO4.~ ~ SO4_bc[bc='Comparison']-SO4_bc[bc='Baseline'] Definition: Slice(Delta_conc,So2_so4,2) Nodelocation: 432,88 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,5,99,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: 0,-26215,-26215 Variable Delta_conc Title: Delta Concentration Units: ug/m^3 Description: Difference of "No abatement" and other intervention scena~~ rios Definition: (Ambient_baseline_con-Urban_air_quality) Nodelocation: 296,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,176,127,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Module Regional_concentrati Title: Regional Concentrations Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, Aug 23, 1998 5:20 PM Nodelocation: 120,56 Nodesize: 80,28 Diagstate: 1,226,140,488,364,17 Constant Reg_12_areas Title: Regional Areas Units: m^2 Description: Area of each region being modeled. Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 19.343K,18.768K,2635,2944,18.15K,19.562K,22.4K,3611,18.162K,820,8501,~~ 340)*1G Nodelocation: 96,256 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,104,114 Defnstate: 1,322,65,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,111,238,416,303,0,MIDM Constant Mixing_depth Title: Mixing layer depth Units: meters Description: This is the height of the mixing layer, through which the~~ pollutant species are evenly distributed (lower troposphere). Definition: 2000 Nodelocation: 200,40 Nodesize: 52,28 Variable Regional_pollutants Title: Regional Pollutants Units: ug Definition: Table(So2_so4)(~ (((((1T*Reg_s)*64)/32)*Tau_so2)/1u),(((((1T*Reg_s)*Sulfate_fr)*(96/32~~ ))*Tau_so4)/1u)) Nodelocation: 240,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,388,97 Defnstate: 1,202,261,424,141,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,211,91,544,490,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Constant Plume_ext Title: Plume Extent OverUrban Areas Description: This is a parameterization of the fact that SO2 and SO4 p~~ lumes extends far from their original point of release. I have assum~~ ed that the extent of the release zone is 20 km while the pollutant p~~ lumes extend to 200 and 1000 km respectively. Ideally, a plume overl~~ ap factor would be needed to account for urbanlization downwind. Definition: Table(So2_so4,Regions_12)(~ (20/200),(20/200),(20/200),(20/200),(20/200),(20/200),(20/200),(20/20~~ 0),(20/200),(20/200),(20/200),(20/200),~ (20/1000),(20/1000),(20/1000),(20/1000),(20/1000),(20/1000),(20/1000)~~ ,(20/1000),(20/1000),(20/1000),(20/1000),(20/1000)~ ) Nodelocation: 80,40 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,103,186,416,303,0,MIDM Reformdef: [So2_so4,Regions_12] Reformval: [So2_so4,Regions_12] Variable Ambient_baseline_con Title: Ambient Baseline Concentration Units: ug/m^3 Description: Urban pollutant concentration under the "No abatement" s~~ cenario Definition: Slice(Urban_air_quality,Intervention,1) Nodelocation: 240,288 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,56,66,662,477,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Ambient_baseline_co1 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Urban_air_quality Title: Urban Air Quality Units: ug/m^3 Description: If all the pollution is evently distributed in each regio~~ n, this is the resulting pollution concentration in the mixed layer o~~ f the Troposphere. Definition: (((Plume_ext*(1/Urban_conc))*Sum((Transboundary_pollut*Reg~~ ional_pollutants),Regions_12b))/(Mixing_depth*Reg_12_areas)) Nodelocation: 240,208 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,0,-23,1024,733,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Urban_air_quality1 Reformval: [Regions_12,Time] Constant Urban_conc Title: Urban Concentration~ Factor Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.05,0.02,0.2,0.2,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.25) Nodelocation: 320,40 Nodesize: 52,28 Reformdef: [So2_so4,Regions_12] Module Plume_overlap_model Title: Plume Overlap Model Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, Aug 23, 1998 5:20 PM Nodelocation: 96,176 Nodesize: 52,28 Diagstate: 1,360,370,441,281,17 Module Alternative_model_1 Title: Alternative Model 1 Author: Hadi Date: Tue, Jul 8, 1997 12:18 PM Nodelocation: 80,208 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,232,72,522,437,17 Variable Large_urban_centers Title: Large Urban Centers Description: I have assumed that an urban center has a population of x~~ million. With this assumption I can calculate the number of urban c~~ enters. This is needed to calculate implications of long-range pollu~~ tion transport. Definition: Urban_pop/Popofurbancenter Nodelocation: 320,144 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Alias Urban_population Title: Urban Population Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 320,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodecolor: -26215,-13105,-1 Original: Urban_pop Alias Urban_ratio1 Title: Urban Ratio Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 320,48 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Urban_ratio Variable Urbandomain Title: Urban Domain Units: m^2 Description: Here a very simple decision is made to find out the land ~~ surface for which each urban area is a centroid. Definition: ((Urbanizable_fraction*Reg_12_areas)/Large_urban_centers) Nodelocation: 320,192 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,293,112 Valuestate: 1,373,273,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Inter_urban_distance Title: Inter-urban Distances Units: m Description: The distance between urban centers is the square root of~~ the urban domains, if the centers are located on a regular grid. Definition: sqrt(Urbandomain) Nodelocation: 320,240 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,55,215,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Plumeoverlap Title: Urban Plume Overlaps Units: m Description: The number of plumes overlapping in an urban setting perm~~ its correction of local pollution conditions. Definition: (Plume_extent/Inter_urban_distance) Nodelocation: 232,312 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,61,119,679,463,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,So2_so4] Variable Windspeed Title: Windspeed Units: m/Yr Description: The wind carried air born pollutants from their source. ~~ This determines the extend of the plume from a given urban source of~~ pollution. Definition: 5k*8766 Nodelocation: 184,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Plume_extent Title: Plume Extent Description: The plume is assumed to be cigar shaped, with its length ~~ determined by windspeed and expected atmospheric lifetime. Definition: Table(So2_so4)~ (~ (windspeed*tau_SO2), (windspeed*tau_SO4)~ ) Nodelocation: 184,240 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,613,350,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Urbanizable_fraction Title: Urbanizable Fraction of Region Description: This is the fraction of land surface in each region of th~~ e model which can be urbanized. Deserts, lakes, and mountains are no~~ t great candidates. Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.8,0.5,0.9,0.9,0.7,0.5,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.3,0.8) Nodelocation: 448,128 Nodesize: 52,28 Variable Urban_concentration Title: Urban concentration Definition: (((1+(Plumeoverlap/2))*Plume_ext)*(Regional_pollutants/(Re~~ g_12_areas*Mixing_depth))) Nodelocation: 232,376 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,226,137,575,434,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Variable Popofurbancenter Title: Population of urban centers Description: This is the typical urban center size. Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 2M,2M,2M,2M,3M,3M,3M,3M,3M,3M,2M,3M) Nodelocation: 176,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable Area_of_urban_center Title: Area of Urban Center Definition: Popofurbancenter/Urban_population_den Nodelocation: 56,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable Urban_population_den Title: Urban Population Density Units: people/m^2 Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 2.5m,2.5m,2.5m,2.5m,2.5m,2.5m,2.5m,2.5m,2.5m,2.5m,2.5m,2.5m) Nodelocation: 56,40 Nodesize: 52,28 Variable Urban_edge Title: Urban edge Definition: sqrt(Area_of_urban_center) Nodelocation: 56,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable Pollution_fraction_o Title: Pollution fraction over urban areas Definition: (Urban_edge/Plume_extent) Nodelocation: 56,312 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,384,190,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close Alternative_model_1 Variable Transboundary_pollut Title: Transboundary Pollution Description: This is a table of emissions from regions_12b on regions_~~ 12. So for places like Japan there is a complement of emissions drif~~ ting over from China. Elsewhere the impact is minimal. Definition: Table(So2_so4,Regions_12,Regions_12b)(~ 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0.9,0.1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0.1,0.9,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,~ 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0.75,0.25,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0.25,0.75,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.8,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.9,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0,1~ ) Nodelocation: 80,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,74,127,700,449,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Regions_12,Regions_12b] Chance Plume_area Title: plume area Units: km Definition: so2_lifetime*5 Nodelocation: 72,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Urban_plume Title: Urban Plume Definition: table(so2_so4)(20/plume_area, 20/1000) Nodelocation: 200,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Regional_pollution_1 Title: Regional Pollution Density Units: ug/m^3 Description: If all the pollution is evently distributed in each regio~~ n, this is the resulting pollution concentration in the mixed layer o~~ f the Troposphere. Definition: (((Urban_plume*(1/Urban_conc))*Sum((Transboundary_pollut*R~~ egional_pollutants),Regions_12b))/(Mixing_depth*Reg_12_areas)) Nodelocation: 264,128 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,136,66 Valuestate: 1,106,79,632,519,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:40~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,So2_so4] Close Plume_overlap_model Close Regional_concentrati Close Pollutant_conc__ Module Population1 Title: Population Description: This module contains population projections Author: Krupnick, Farrell Date: Thu, May 2, 1996 9:50 AM Nodelocation: 64,184 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,359,45,399,211,17 Nodecolor: 13106,-26209,-1 Variable Pop_notchild Title: Population over 17 Units: Number of people. Description: Number of people older than 17 Definition: (Fraction_over_17*Urban_pop) Nodelocation: 320,112 Nodesize: 48,20 Windstate: 1,211,210 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -26215,-13105,-1 Variable Pop_child Title: Population 17 and under~ Units: Number of people. Description: Number of people 17 and younger, by location and five yea~~ r period. Definition: ((1-Fraction_over_17)*Urban_pop) Nodelocation: 320,160 Nodesize: 48,20 Nodecolor: -26215,-13105,-1 Constant Baseline_mortality Title: Baseline Mortality Units: deaths/person/year Description: US nonaccidental mortality rate in deaths per person per ~~ year. (Statistical Abstract, 1994) Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 8m,9m,8m,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,8m,8m,8m) Nodelocation: 176,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Windstate: 1,309,428 Defnstate: 1,105,44,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Variable Urban_pop Title: Urban Population Units: Number of people. Description: The urban populations through time.~ The numbers are my best guesses for the time being. Definition: (Regional_populations*Urban_ratio) Nodelocation: 192,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,460,309,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias Urban_population Nodecolor: -26215,-13105,-1 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Constant Fraction_over_24 Title: Fraction over 24 Description: made up Definition: .65 Nodelocation: 56,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Constant Fraction_over_17 Title: Fraction over 17 Description: Fraction of the population that is adult. Definition: .7 Nodelocation: 176,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Variable Urban_ratio Title: Urban Ratio Description: This node defines the ratio of a region's population whic~~ h is concentrated in urban centers. ~ The evolution of this parameter is my best guess for the time being.~~ Definition: dynamic(Urban_ratio_1975, F_s_growth(Urban_ratio[time-1],.~~ 005,Urban_ratio_target,(Time-1975))) Nodelocation: 64,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Urban_ratio1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Constant Urban_ratio_1975 Title: Urban Ratio 1975 Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.75,0.61,0.75,0.53,0.62,0.43,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.7,0.85,0.8) Nodelocation: 56,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Constant Urban_ratio_target Title: Urban Ratio target Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.75,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.85,0.8) Nodelocation: 56,208 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Close Population1 Module Morbidity_effects Title: Morbidity Effects Description: This module summarizes the morbidity effects resulting fr~~ om each pollutant. ~ ~ Descriptions of the concentration-response functions on which the res~~ ults below are based can be found by clicking on the blue library nod~~ es to the right of the results bars. These nodes contain description~~ s of the default, as well as a library of alternative, concentration-~~ response functions for each morbidity endpoint. ~ ~ In some analyses, sulfate health effects have been used as a proxy fo~~ r SO2 and particulate health effects. The user can simulate the effec~~ ts of this analysis by selecting the "Sulfate Proxy Option" button be~~ low. It is not appropriate to aggregate sulfate effects with SO2 and~~ particulate effects, and this is not done anywhere in the model. Th~~ e default (*) is to consider SO2 and particulate effects separately.~~ ~ Author: Krupnick, Farrell Date: Wed, Jul 24, 1996 10:27 AM Nodelocation: 208,96 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,57,41,506,243,17 Diagramcolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Module So2_morbidity Title: SO2 Morbidity Description: SO2 Morbidity Endpoints. Author: Krupnick, Farrell Date: Tue, Jul 25, 1995 3:15 PM Nodelocation: 440,136 Nodesize: 44,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Diagstate: 1,150,144,343,244,1 Nodecolor: 1,-24576,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Chance So2_cc_imp Title: Child Cough Days Units: CC Days/year Description: Schwartz et al. (1991)~ Days of children experiencing coughing.~ Used in DOE Model~ Applied population: children Definition: Linear_model(Normal(0.0181, 0.01),Chg_so2,Pop_child) Nodelocation: 56,40 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -26215,-13108,-1 Chance So2_acd_imp Title: Adult Chest Discomfort Days Units: ACD Days/year Description: Schwartz et al. (1988)~ Days of Adult Chest Discomfort.~ Used in DOE Model~ Applied population: adults Definition: Linear_model(Normal(0.0102, 5.3m), Chg_so2, Pop_notchild) Nodelocation: 56,88 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -26215,-13108,-1 Chance Aggregate_coeff Title: Emergency Room Visits~ Description: Attempt at a weighted mean. Assumes weights both .5.~ ~ ~ Sunyer et al (1991) Normal(0.48,0.31)~ Used in DOE Model~ ~ Samet et al (1991) Normal(15.3,7.65)~ Used in DOE Model~ ~ Probtable((((Ervj*Chg_so2)/100K)*Population))(~ 0.5,0.5) Definition: (((Chg_so2/100K)*Urban_pop)*Normal(((0.5*0.48)+(0.5*15.3))~~ ,((((0.5^2)*(0.31^2))+((0.5^2)*(7.65^2)))^0.5))) Nodelocation: 56,144 Nodesize: 48,20 Windstate: 1,-524,199 Defnstate: 1,67,233,831,369,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,51,44,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable So2_morbidity_table Title: Table of SO2 Morbidity Effects Units: Impacts Definition: Table(So2_morbidity_index)(~ So2_cc_imp,So2_acd_imp) Nodelocation: 192,40 Nodesize: 48,20 Valuestate: 1,82,129,529,289,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode So2_morbidity_table2 Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-26215 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close So2_morbidity Module So4_morbidity Title: Sulfate Morbidity Description: Sulfate Morbidity Endpoints. ~ This sub-Module based on Hagler Bailly's "Human Health Benefits Asses~~ sment of the Acid Rain Provisions of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment~~ s," (1995).~ ~ ~ Author: Krupnick, Farrell Date: Mon, Dec 11, 1995 3:55 PM Nodelocation: 440,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1, Diagstate: 1,100,38,531,411,17 Nodecolor: 1,-24576,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Chance So4_acb Title: Chronic Bronchitis Units: risk per 1ug/m3 sulfate Description: Abby et al (1995) ~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ ~ Key assumption: Sulfates contribute to the risk of developing chronic~~ bronchitis at an equal level per ug/m3 as other constitutuents of PM~~ 2.5.~ ~ Chronic Bronchitis annual risk per 1 ug/m3 change in annual average S~~ O4 concentration.~ ~ Assumes mean incidence rate of ACB is 0.6% - Based on study. Definition: Probtable(Self)(~ 0.25,0.5,0.25) Nodelocation: 64,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,240,192,416,303,0,MIDM Domain: [800u,1.8m,3.3m] Chance So4_cha Title: Cardiac Hospital Admissions Description: Burnett et al., (1995) ~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ ~ Cardiac hospital admissions (CHA) annual risk per 1 ug/m3 change in d~~ aily average SO4 concentration. Definition: Probtable(Self)(~ 0.25,0.5,0.25) Nodelocation: 64,128 Nodesize: 44,24 Domain: [1.9m,2.5m,3.2m] Chance So4_rad Title: Restricted Activity Day Description: Ostro (1987), Ostro and Rothschild (1989) ~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ ~ Both studies used PM 2.5 as the explanatory variable. ~ Later work indicated that ozone was not a confounding factor. ~ ~ Restricted activity day (RAD) annual risk factors given a 1 ug/m3 cha~~ nge in daily average SO4 concentration.~ ~ Restricted activity days (RADs) include days spent in bed, days misse~~ d from work, and days when activities are partially restricted due to~~ illness. ~ ~ Ostro and Rothschild (1989) added ozone to the regressions and found ~~ the relationship between RADs and PM 2.5 to be essentially unchanged.~~ Definition: Probtable(Self)(~ 0.33,0.34,0.33) Nodelocation: 64,232 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,168,228,416,303,0,MIDM Domain: [1.58m,4.8m,7.6m] Chance So4_rha Title: Respiratory Hospital Admissions Description: Burnett et al. (1995) ~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ ~ Respiratory hospital admissions (RHA) annual risk per 1 ug/m3 change ~~ in daily average SO4 concentration.~ ~ Assumes base incidence rate of 16 per million per day.~ ~ This regression included both sulfates and ozone. ~ Study area: Ontario, Canada. Definition: Probtable(Self)(~ 0.25,0.5,0.25) Nodelocation: 64,72 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,229,243,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,0,MEAN Domain: [2.2m,2.7m,3.1m] Chance So4_aa Title: Asthma Symptom Day Description: Ostro et al. (1991) ~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ ~ An aggrevation of asthma symptoms typically meant a notable increase ~~ in symptoms such as shortness of breath or wheezing, and/or mediction~~ relative to what was "normal" for that individual. ~ ~ Asthma symptom day (AA) anual risk factors given a 1 ug/m3 change in ~~ annual average SO4 concentration.~ ~ This study was conducted in Denver during winter months, a period of ~~ more frequent respiratory colds. We therefore assume that the measure~~ d relationship applies only during half the year. The coefficients ha~~ ve been annualized by multiplying by 182.5, rather than 365.~ ~ Ozone concentrations were very low during the study, so don't create ~~ a confounding influence. Definition: Probtable(Self)(~ 0.33,0.34,0.33) Nodelocation: 64,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,1,PDFP Domain: [1.8m,3.6m,5.4m] Chance So4_lrs Title: Lower Respiratory Symptom Day Description: Ostro et al. (1993) ~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ ~ Day with lower resp. symptom (LRS) annual risk factors given a 1 ug/m~~ 3 change in daily average SO4 concentration.~ ~ Used sulfates as a measure of daily particulate matter. Ozone is incl~~ uded in the regression. Definition: Probtable(Self)(~ 0.25,0.5,0.25) Nodelocation: 64,280 Nodesize: 44,24 Domain: [0.012,0.03,0.042] Variable So4_acb_imp Title: Sulfate ACB Impacts Units: impacts Description: Abby et al. (1995) ~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ Based on PM2.5 as the explanatory variable.~ Applied population: population over 24. Definition: ((((So4_acb*Chg_so4)*Mean_acb_ir)*Fraction_over_24)*Urban_~~ pop) Nodelocation: 304,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,200,210,527,302,0,MIDM Variable So4_rha_imp Title: SO4 RHA Impacts Units: impacts Description: Based on Burnett et al. (1995) ~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ Based on sulfate as the explanatory variable. - Ozone included in the~~ model.~ Applied population: all. Definition: ((((So4_rha*Chg_so4)*Mean_rha_ir)*365)*Urban_pop) Nodelocation: 304,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable So4_cha_imp Title: SO4 CHA Impacts Units: impacts Description: Burnett et al., (1995)~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ Based on sulfate as the explanatory variable~ Applied population: all. Definition: ((((So4_cha*Chg_so4)*Mean_cha_ir)*365)*Urban_pop) Nodelocation: 304,128 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,0,MIDM Variable So4_aa_imp Title: SO4 AA Impacts Units: impacts Description: Ostro et al. (1991) ~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ Aggrevation of asthma symptms. ~ Based on Sulfates as the explanatory variable. Only applies during ha~~ lf the year, since the study was conducted during the winter in Denve~~ r.~ Applied population: all. Definition: ((((So4_aa*Chg_so4)*Mean_aa_ir)*182.5)*Urban_pop) Nodelocation: 304,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,216,226,535,306,0,MIDM Variable So4_rad_imp Title: SO4 RAD Impacts Units: impacts Description: Ostro (1987), Ostro and Rothschild (1989)~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ Based on Pm2.5 as an explanatory variable.~ Applied population: adults. Definition: So4_rad*Mean_rad_ir*Chg_So4*365*Pop_notchild Nodelocation: 304,232 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,248,258,416,303,0,MIDM Variable So4_lrs_imp Title: SO4 LRS Impacts Units: impacts Description: Ostro et al. (1993)~ Used in Hagler Bailly (1995)~ Based on coefficient of haze (COH) as an explanatory variable.~ Applied population: adults. Definition: So4_lrs*Chg_so4*Mean_lrs_ir*365*Pop_notchild Nodelocation: 304,280 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,MIDM Objective Net_rads Title: Net RADs Units: impacts Description: Factors that can lead to double-counting:~ 1. Broad categories may include days on which effects measured in ano~~ ther function may occur.~ 2. One function may be for all ages, and another only for adults. In ~~ this case we assume the incidence of the effect is proportional to th~~ e age distrubution which is that 83% of the US population is 18 and o~~ lder.~ ~ Also, each RHA is assumed to average 6.8 days and each CHA averages 6~~ .9 days. We assume all days in the hospital and all asthma symptom da~~ ys are also restricted activity days and therefore subtract these fro~~ m total RADs. Also assume all RADs are also acute respiratory symptom~~ days and subtract a fraction of RADs from LRSs. The Ostro et al (199~~ 3) study reports that 28% of acute respiratory symptoms are lower res~~ p tract symptoms. We therefore assume that RADs are split between upp~~ er and lower respiratory tract in the same proportion. Net RADs and n~~ et LRSs are therefore defined as follows. Definition: (((So4_rad_imp-((Fraction_over_17*Average_rha)*So4_rha_imp~~ ))-((Fraction_over_17*Average_cha)*So4_cha_imp))-(Fraction_over_17*So~~ 4_aa_imp)) Nodelocation: 424,232 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,312,322,416,303,0,MIDM Objective Net_lrs Title: Net LRSs Units: impacts Description: Factors that can lead to double counting:~ 1. Broad categories may include days on which effects measured in ano~~ ther function may occur.~ 2. One function may be for all ages, and another only for adults. In ~~ this case we assume the incidence of the effect is proportional to th~~ e age distrubution which is that 83% of the US population is 18 and o~~ lder.~ ~ Also, each RHA is assumed to average 6.8 days and each CHA averages 6~~ .9 days. We assume all days in the hospital and all asthma symptom da~~ ys are also restricted activity days and therefore subtract these fro~~ m total RADs. Also assume all RADs are also acute respiratory symptom~~ days and subtract a fraction of RADs from LRSs. The Ostro et al (199~~ 3) study reports that 28% of acute respiratory symptoms are lower res~~ p tract symptoms. We therefore assume that RADs are split between upp~~ er and lower respiratory tract in the same proportion. Net RADs and n~~ et LRSs are therefore defined as follows. Definition: So4_lrs_imp-(Percent_lrs*So4_rad_imp) Nodelocation: 424,280 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,328,338,416,303,0,MIDM Variable Mean_acb_ir Title: Mean ACB Incidence Rate Description: The fraction of adults with chronic bronchitis in the pop~~ ulation under consideration. The estimate of 6% was based on Abbey e~~ t al. (1995). Definition: 6% Nodelocation: 184,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Mean_rha_ir Title: Mean RHA Incidence Rate Description: Population fraction experiencing a respiratory hospital a~~ dmission, per day. consideration. The estimate of 16 per million was ~~ based on Burnett et al. (1995). Definition: 16/1000000 Nodelocation: 184,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Mean_rad_ir Title: Mean RAD Incidence Rate Description: Population fraction experiencing a respiratory hospital a~~ dmission, per day. consideration. The estimate of 16 per million was ~~ based on Burnett et al. (1995). Definition: 5.2% Nodelocation: 184,232 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Mean_lrs_ir Title: Mean LRS~ Incidence Rate Description: Population fraction experiencing a respiratory hospital a~~ dmission, per day. consideration. The estimate of 16 per million was ~~ based on Burnett et al. (1995). Definition: 1.5% Nodelocation: 184,280 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Average_rha Title: Average length of an RHA Units: days Description: Average duration of a stay in the hospital for a respirat~~ ory condition. Definition: 6.8 Nodelocation: 424,120 Nodesize: 44,20 Nodecolor: -26215,-6553,-1 Variable Average_cha Title: Average length of a CHA Units: days Description: Average duration of a stay in the hospital for a respira~~ tory condition. Definition: 6.9 Nodelocation: 424,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Nodecolor: -26215,-6553,-1 Variable Percent_lrs Title: Percent of Symptoms that are LRS Units: percent Definition: 28% Nodelocation: 424,24 Nodesize: 44,24 Nodecolor: -26215,-6553,-1 Variable Mean_cha_ir Title: Mean CHA~ Incidence Rate Description: Population fraction experiencing a cardiac hospital admis~~ sion, per day. The estimate of 14.4 per million was based on Burnett~~ et al. (1995). Definition: 14.4/1000000 Nodelocation: 184,128 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Mean_aa_ir Title: Mean AA Incidence Rate Definition: 4.7% Nodelocation: 184,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Sulfate_morbidity_ta Title: Table of Sulfate Morbidity Effects Units: Impacts Definition: Table(Sulfate_morb_index)(~ So4_acb_imp,So4_rha_imp,So4_cha_imp,So4_aa_imp,So4_rad_imp,So4_lrs_im~~ p) Nodelocation: 424,176 Nodesize: 44,28 Valuestate: 1,122,113,634,455,1,MEAN Aliases: Formnode Sulfate_morbidity_t2 Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-26215 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close So4_morbidity Formnode So2_morbidity_table2 Title: SO2 Morbidity Table Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 192,136 Nodesize: 180,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -13108,-13108,-13108 Original: So2_morbidity_table Formnode Sulfate_morbidity_t2 Title: Sulfate Morbidity Table Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 192,192 Nodesize: 180,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -13108,-13108,-13108 Original: Sulfate_morbidity_ta Text Te11 Description: This page summarizes the morbidity effects resulting from~~ each pollutant. ~ ~ Descriptions of the concentration-response functions on which the res~~ ults below are based can be found by clicking on the blue library nod~~ es to the right of the results bars. These nodes contain description~~ s of the default, as well as a library of alternative, concentration-~~ response functions for each morbidity endpoint. Nodelocation: 240,56 Nodesize: 232,48 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Close Morbidity_effects Module Mortality_effects Title: Mortality Effects Description: This module estimates mortality effects. In browse mode,~~ you use the mouse to select a treatment of pollutants and dose-respo~~ nse function from the supplied options. Author: Krupnick, Farrell Date: Wed, Jul 24, 1996 10:27 AM Nodelocation: 208,184 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,106,45,602,277,17 Diagramcolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Formnode Choose_an_so2_mortal Title: Choose an SO2 Mortality Study Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 208,158 Nodesize: 196,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -13108,-13108,-13108 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Choose_so2_mort Formnode Choose_an_so4_morta1 Title: Choose an SO4 mortality study. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 208,118 Nodesize: 196,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -13108,-13108,-13108 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Choose_so4_mort Module Click_here Title: Function Definitions and Library Description: This module contains the mortality algorithms for particu~~ lates, sulfates, and SO2. The user can choose the desired functional~~ treatment from the top-level of the health effects module. Author: Krupnick, Farrell Date: Thu, Jul 18, 1996 10:37 AM Defaultsize: 44,20 Nodelocation: 464,134 Nodesize: 48,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1, Diagstate: 1,51,41,379,192,17 Nodecolor: 1,-32766,-1 Fontstyle: Arial, 10 Module So2_mort_library Title: SO2 Mortality Study Library Author: Krupnick, Farrell Date: Tue, Apr 30, 1996 1:44 PM Nodelocation: 56,128 Nodesize: 44,32 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,209,216,447,241,17 Nodecolor: -1,-8195,1 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Chance So2_mort1 Title: Hatzakis et al (1986) Units: Deaths per year Description: Hatzakis et al (1986) -- SO2 and British Smoke at five lo~~ cations in Athens. ~ Daily SO2 - Average during period studied was 85.7 ug/m3 per day.~ Regression apparently didn't control for TSP.~ Effect significant at SO2 >=150ug/m3.~ Subsequent analyses with more recent data from Athens leads to more e~~ quivocal conclusions about SO2 mortality effects (Katsouyanni 1990a, ~~ 1990b). ~ Given the colinearity between SO2 and particulates, SO2 mortality stu~~ dies and particulate mortality studies should be seen as substitutes.~~ Their results are not additive. Given the need to chosse, the weight~~ of evidence strongly supports PM10-mortality as the primary relation~~ ship.~ ~ Normal(0.02036517,0.01018258)*Chg_so2/100*Population*Mort_rate Definition: Percent_change((Normal(0.02037,0.01018)/100),Chg_so2,(Urba~~ n_pop*Baseline_mortality)) Nodelocation: 64,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,72,82 Valuestate: 1,-287,216,187,158,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -26215,-13108,-1 Chance So2_mort2 Title: Cifuentes and Lave (1995) Description: Cifuentes and Lave (1995)~ This coefficient is from a model that only included Ozone, not TSP, s~~ o should not be used with PM. ~ Definition: Ter3(Normal(503u,216u),Chg_so2,(Baseline_mortality*Urban_p~~ op)) Nodelocation: 64,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,-602,196,327,122,0,MIDM Chance So2_mort3 Title: Moolgavkar et al. (1995) Description: Moolgavkar et al. 1995~ Exposure measure: Previous day's 24hr average SO2 concentration.~ Study population: Philadelphia~ Applies to entire population~ Used in EPA's "812 Study" Definition: Ter3(Normal(1.328m,255u),Chg_so2,(Baseline_mortality*Urban~~ _pop)) Nodelocation: 64,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,-601,347,326,148,0,MIDM Decision Choose_so2_mort Title: Choose an SO2 Mortality Study: Description: Study One -- Hatzakis et al. (1986) ~ Study Two -- Cifuentes and Lave (1996)~ Study Three -- Moolgavkar et al. (1995) Definition: Choice(Hat_cl_moolg,2) Nodelocation: 296,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,232,242 Aliases: Formnode Choose_an_so2_mortal Domain: ['Item 1','Item 2','Item 3'] Objective So2_mort Title: SO2 Mortality Impacts Definition: (If (Choose_so2_mort='Hatzak') Then So2_mort1 Else (If (Ch~~ oose_so2_mort='CL') Then So2_mort2 Else (If (Choose_so2_mort='Moolgav~~ ') Then So2_mort3 Else 'error'))) Nodelocation: 296,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -13109,-1,-6555 Close So2_mort_library Module So4_mort_library Title: SO4 Mortality Study Library Author: Krupnick, Farrell Date: Wed, Jul 17, 1996 2:43 PM Nodelocation: 56,56 Nodesize: 44,32 Diagstate: 1,342,247,417,279,17 Nodecolor: -1,-8195,1 Chance So4_mort_coeff Title: SO4 Mort Coeff Description: Chestnut (1995)-- From Hagler Bailly "Human Health Benefi~~ ts Assessment of the Acid Rain Provisions of the 1990 CAAA" Nov. 199~~ 5.~ ~ We use these percentage changes to the mortality for sulfate changes ~~ following Chestnut in the Hagler-Bailly NAPAP Benefits Assessment of ~~ 1995. However, these coefficients are taken from diverse studies in t~~ he particulate literature. Specifically, for a low estimate, the.1% m~~ ortality effect was found for PM10 in many time-series studies. For a~~ low-central estimate, the .3% effect was found by Evans et al (1984)~~ for changes in SO4. For a high-central estimate, the .7% effect was ~~ found by Pope et al (1995) for PM 2.5, and the high estimate, 1.4%, ~~ was based on the results of Dockery et al (1993) for PM 2.5. Definition: Probtable(Self)(~ 0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25) Nodelocation: 56,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,212,150 Defnstate: 1,284,262,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,232,242,416,303,0,MEAN Nodecolor: -6558,-13109,-1 Domain: [0.1,0.3,0.7,1.4] Variable So4_mort_hb Title: SO4 Mortality Impacts Units: Deaths per year Description: Chestnut (1995)-- From Hagler Bailly "Human Health Benefi~~ ts Assessment of the Acid Rain Provisions of the 1990 CAAA" Nov. 199~~ 5.~ ~ Low estimate from PM10 time series studies.~ Low central estimate based on low end of cross-sectional results for ~~ sulfates.~ High central based on Pope et al prospective study.~ High estimate based on PM2.5 results of the 6-cities study.~ ~ This study can only be used as a substitute for other PM10 or PM2.5 m~~ ortality studies. Definition: ((((So4_mort_coeff*Chg_so4)/100)*Urban_pop)*Baseline_morta~~ lity) Nodelocation: 176,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,91,73,483,331,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -13111,-26215,-1 Variable So4_mort_pope Title: Pope (1995) Definition: ((((0.7*Chg_so4)/100)*Urban_pop)*Baseline_mortality) Nodelocation: 176,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Decision Choose_so4_mort Title: Choose an SO4 mortality study: Description: Item 1 = Chestnut (1995)-- From Hagler Bailly "Human Heal~~ th Benefits Assessment of the Acid Rain Provisions of the 1990 CAAA" ~~ Nov. 1995.~ Low estimate from PM10 time series studies. ~ Low central estimate based on low end of cross-sectional results for ~~ sulfates.~ High central based on Pope et al prospective study.~ High estimate based on PM2.5 results of the 6-cities study.~ ~ Item 2 = Pope (1995) Definition: Choice(Hb_pope,1) Nodelocation: 112,232 Nodesize: 72,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Aliases: Formnode Choose_an_so4_morta1 Domain: ['Item 1','Item 2'] Objective So4_mort Title: SO4 Mortality Impacts Definition: (If (Choose_so4_mort='HB') Then So4_mort_hb Else (If (Choo~~ se_so4_mort='Pope') Then So4_mort_pope Else 'error')) Nodelocation: 320,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,248,258,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -13109,-1,-6555 Close So4_mort_library Objective Mortality_due_to_sul Title: Air Pollution Deaths Averted Units: Lives/Y Description: Deaths per year due to S species (SO2 and SO4) Definition: So2_mort+So4_mort Nodelocation: 216,88 Nodesize: 44,32 Windstate: 1,129,281 Valuestate: 1,124,55,607,534,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Total_s_mortality1, Alias Air_pollution_deaths, Alias~~ Mortality_due_to_su1, Formnode Air_pollution_death1 Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,F,4,0,0,0 Close Click_here Text Te1 Description: Descriptions of the concentration-response functions on w~~ hich these results are based can be found by clicking on the blue "De~~ finition and Library" sub-module. This sub-module contains descripti~~ ons of all mortality concentration-response functions used in this mo~~ dule. Nodelocation: 216,40 Nodesize: 204,32 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Formnode Total_s_mortality1 Title: Total S Mortality Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 208,208 Nodesize: 196,20 Nodecolor: -13108,-13108,-13108 Original: Mortality_due_to_sul Close Mortality_effects Objective Loss_of_life_expecta Title: Loss of Life Expectancy Due to Policy Units: Yrs. Description: The policy may have an impact on incomes. Household inco~~ mes are konwn to influenced life expectancy. The average life expect~~ ancy is set at 75 years and the impact of the policy on statistical l~~ ives lost is calculated. Definition: -beta_sdl1*(ln(Regional__gdp_pc) - ln(slice(Regional__gdp_~~ pc, intervention, 1))) Nodelocation: 376,136,1 Nodesize: 72,20 Windstate: 1,498,240 Valuestate: 1,200,54,566,509,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Excess_deaths_due_to Nodecolor: -26215,-13105,-1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:600K~ Zminimum:0.05~ Zmaximum:0.95~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.1,0.5,0.9]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,D,4,0,0,0 Alias Air_pollution_deaths Title: Air Pollution Deaths Averted Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 376,184,1 Nodesize: 72,24 Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Original: Mortality_due_to_sul Objective Undiscounted_lives_s Title: Undiscounted Lives Saved Through Lower Urban Pollution Definition: sum(Mortality_due_to_sul, time) Nodelocation: 328,256 Nodesize: 48,40 Valuestate: 1,181,89,491,470,1,CDFP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:125K~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Objective Undiscounted_lives_1 Title: Undiscounted Lives Lost Through Cost of Climate Policy Definition: sum(Loss_of_life_expecta , time) Nodelocation: 424,256 Nodesize: 48,40 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,1,CDFP Module Endogenous_trigger_f Title: Endogenous Trigger for SO2 control Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, Aug 23, 1998 5:20 PM Nodelocation: 208,32 Nodesize: 52,24 Nodecolor: -16385,-16385,-16385 Variable Control_threshold Title: Control Threshold Units: ug/m^3 Definition: 4 Nodelocation: 96,72 Nodesize: 52,20 Objective So2_control_startup Title: SO2 Control Startup Definition: Dynamic((If (Slice(Urban_air_quality,So2_so4,1)>Control_th~~ reshold) Then 0.05 Else 0),(If (So2_control_startup[Time-1]=0.05) The~~ n 0.05 Else (If (Urban_air_quality>Control_threshold) Then 0.05 Else ~~ 0))) Nodelocation: 336,72 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,152,162 Valuestate: 1,136,146,504,374,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Close Endogenous_trigger_f Close Urban_health_effects Module Landcover Title: Landcover Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Mon, Feb 8, 1999 10:55 am Saveauthor: Hadi Dowlatabadi Savedate: Mon, Aug 30, 1999 7:10 pm Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 200,56 Nodesize: 52,40 Diagstate: 1,267,203,484,313,17 Icon: (00 00 00 00 00 1C 00 00 00 7F 00 00 02 12 E0 00 04 23 D8 00 0A ~~ C4 6C 00 0E 81 FE 00 04 24 7E 00 04 C0 6E 00 1F 1C FD 80 00 A0 37 80 ~~ 19 04 8F 40 02 2F CF C0 30 41 AF 00 32 C9 53 00 0F 42 53 00 02 AC 32 ~~ 00 00 F5 34 00 01 D9 E0 00 00 1B 00 00 00 0F 00 00 00 1F 00 00 00 0F ~~ 00 00 00 0F 00 00 00 13 00 00 00 7F C0 00 00 27 E0 00 00 EC 00 00 00 ~~ 11 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 ) Nodecolor: 26216,-13109,1 Pagesetup: (00030000004800480000000002D80228FFE1FFE202F902460347052803~~ FC00020000004800480000000002D8022800010000006400000001000303030000000~~ 1270F0001000100000000000000000000000060080019019000000000000000000000~~ 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000) Constant Currentlc Title: Current Land cover Units: km^2 Definition: Table(Veglabels,Regions_12)(~ 0,7.24M,0,0,0,30.8K,1.947M,281.5K,261K,1.185M,1.019M,0,~ 0,2.17M,29.12K,0,0,27.6K,597.2K,1.636M,689.8K,396K,98.46K,0,~ 3.44M,232K,681.9K,1.574M,2.665M,0,0,10.54K,856.5K,0,72.44K,134.6K,~ 1.43M,198K,1.04M,1.333M,4.008M,24.22K,0,0,1.02M,0,0,104.7K,~ 309K,4.2M,42.43K,40.57K,1.545M,750.4K,1.72M,155.1K,758K,0,1.527M,0,~ 419K,176K,504.9K,61.25K,33.37K,1.157M,3.581M,134.3K,144.1K,134.9K,1.2~~ 88M,0,~ 2.22M,243K,181.2K,81.84K,2.946M,25.01K,0,0,141.6K,0,12.75K,0,~ 3.51M,0,197.1K,60.5K,2.499M,0,6169,0,15.89K,0,0,0,~ 94.3K,3.07M,106.1K,100.4K,970.6K,759.2K,3.719M,20.49K,731.9K,4396,1.0~~ 67M,0,~ 531K,548K,91.34K,298.2K,1.608M,1.398M,4.061M,0,1.379M,0,760.7K,0,~ 847K,1.3M,68.27K,482.8K,1.25M,390.3K,337.8K,446K,1.596M,0,731.3K,0,~ 125K,24.1K,0,0,887K,8.495M,2.839M,294.5K,2.243M,0,1.222M,0,~ 247K,0,0,0,6120,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 80,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,25,28,604,431,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Regions_12,Veglabels] Module Climate_change Title: Climate Change Author: elena Date: Fri, Mar 26, 1999 11:46 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 80,72 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,459,91,401,305,17 Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Chance Dtemp Title: dt Units: °C Definition: if ~ Ecosyst_sw = 'Median feedback' then Median_of_temperatur~ else~ if ~ Ecosyst_sw = 'Full feedback' then Full_temperature_cha~ else 0 Nodelocation: 208,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,449,250 Valuestate: 1,230,84,623,462,0,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:5~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1~ Ymaximum:1.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 8 Nodefont: Helvetica, 10 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Pt Title: pt Definition: if ~ Ecosyst_sw = 'Median feedback' then Median_of_precipitat~ else~ if ~ Ecosyst_sw = 'Full feedback' then Full_precipitation_d~ else 1 Nodelocation: 208,216 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,290,264 Valuestate: 1,244,140,597,510,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Nodefont: Helvetica, 10 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Median_of_temperatur Title: Median of Temperature Distribution Definition: mid(regional_t) Nodelocation: 96,56 Nodesize: 52,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Helvetica, 10 Variable Full_temperature_cha Title: Full Temperature Change Distribution Definition: regional_t Nodelocation: 96,112 Nodesize: 52,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Helvetica, 10 Variable Median_of_precipitat Title: Median of Precipitation Distribution Definition: mid(Regional_precip) Nodelocation: 96,184 Nodesize: 52,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,120,129 Nodefont: Helvetica, 10 Variable Full_precipitation_d Title: Full Precipitation Distribution Definition: Regional_precip Nodelocation: 96,240 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Helvetica, 10 Close Climate_change Library Indices Title: Functions & Indices Author: elena Date: Fri, Mar 26, 1999 11:46 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 80,184 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,563,256,345,314,17 Nodecolor: -13108,-13108,-13108 Function Lin_loss(Start, Finish, Rate, time) Title: LinLoss Definition: if finish < 0 then start else (finish-start)*(If Time/rate~~ < 1 then Time/rate else 1) +start Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,86,40 Paramnames: Start,Finish,Rate,time Index Temp Title: Temp Definition: sequence(-2, 10, 2) Nodelocation: 176,24 Nodesize: 44,12 Windstate: 1,263,123 Valuestate: 1,120,130,416,303,0,MIDM {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: [-2,0,2,4,6,8,10]} Index Precip Title: Precip Definition: sequence(0.75,2, .25) Nodelocation: 176,64 Nodesize: 44,12 Valuestate: 1,119,404,416,303,0,MIDM {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: [0.75,1,1.25,1.5,1.75,2]} Index Veglabels Title: Veglabels Definition: ['Tropical &subtropical evergreen rainforest','Tropical&su~~ btropical seasonal forest','Temperate evergreen needle-leaved forest'~~ ,'Cold deciduous forest with inclusion of evergreens','Xeromorphic fo~~ rest/woodland/shrubland','Sclerophyllous and drought-deciduous forest~~ /woodland/shrubland','Evergreen needle-leaved and cold-deciduous fore~~ st/woodland/shrubland','Tundra and forb formations','Tall/medium/shor~~ t grassland with up to 40% woddy cover','Tall/medium grassland with i~~ nclusion of shrub','Medium/short grassland no woody cover','Desert','~~ Ice'] Nodelocation: 176,104 Nodesize: 44,12 Windstate: 1,14,33 Valuestate: 1,248,258,417,333,0,MIDM {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Tropical &subtropical evergreen rainfor~~ est','Tropical&subtropical seasonal forest','Temperate evergreen need~~ le-leaved forest','Cold deciduous forest with inclusion of evergreens~~ ','Xeromorphic forest/woodland/shrubland','Sclerophyllous and drought~~ -deciduous forest/woodland/shrubland','Evergreen needle-leaved and co~~ ld-deciduous forest/woodland/shrubland','Tundra and forb formations'~~ ,'Tall/medium/short grassland with up to 40% woddy cover','Tall/mediu~~ m grassland with inclusion of shrub','Medium/short grassland no woody~~ cover','Desert','Ice']} Index Tempo Title: tempo Definition: sequence(1975,2100,5) Nodelocation: 48,304 Nodesize: 44,12 Function Lin_gain(Start, Finish, Rate, time) Title: Lingain Definition: if finish < 0 then start else~ (finish-start)* (If Time/rate< 1 then Time/rate else 1) +start Nodelocation: 48,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,543,296 Paramnames: Start,Finish,Rate,time Function Logistic1(Start, Finish,rate,time) Title: logistic Definition: if start = 0 then 0 else if~ finish = 0 then 0 else~ Finish/(1+(Finish/Start - 1)*exp(-Rate*time)) Nodelocation: 48,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,102,90 Paramnames: Start,Finish,rate,time Close Indices Module Ecosystem_response_t Title: Ecosystem Response to Climate Change Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, Sep 12, 1999 12:27 pm Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 232,128 Nodesize: 60,28 Diagstate: 1,184,194,415,321,17 Nodecolor: 19664,-1,19661 Module No_policy Title: No policy Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Mon, Aug 30, 1999 6:23 pm Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 200,48 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,234,292,654,238,17 Nodecolor: -13107,-1,-26215 Module Loss1 Title: Loss Author: elena Date: Fri, Mar 26, 1999 11:46 AM Nodelocation: 184,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,267,93,478,501,17 Chance Tau Title: Time constants Units: yr Definition: Table(Veglabels)(~ Lognormal(20,2.5),Lognormal(20,2.5),Lognormal(30,2.5),Lognormal(25,2.~~ 5),Lognormal(10,1.5),Triangular(3,15,30),Lognormal(20,2),Triangular(2~~ ,5,10),Lognormal(10,1.5),Lognormal(5,1.25),Uniform(1,2),Lognormal(30,~~ 2.5),Uniform(1,4)) Nodelocation: 104,312 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,141,62 Defnstate: 1,82,100,877,442,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,109,99,762,339,1,STAT Reformdef: [Regions_12,Veglabels] Objective Dynamic_loss Title: dynamic loss Units: km^2 Definition: Dynamic(0,Lin_loss(Dynamic_loss[Time-1],Dsat4,Tau,5)) Nodelocation: 272,312 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,102,90 Valuestate: 1,73,42,746,661,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Total_loss Title: Total Loss Units: km^2 Definition: sum(dynamic_loss, veglabels) Nodelocation: 160,384 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,192,12 Valuestate: 1,100,78,577,536,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Dlcheck Title: dlcheck Definition: dynamic_loss-dynamic_gain2 Nodelocation: 272,384 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,74,66 Valuestate: 1,68,50,665,419,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-2M~ Ymaximum:0~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Gain_z1 Title: gain_z1 Units: km^2 Definition: (If (Eqlossnorm<0) Then (-Eqlossnorm) Else 0) Nodelocation: 392,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,132,227 Reformval: [Temp,Veglabels] Variable Loss_z2 Title: Loss_z2 Units: km^2 Definition: ((Eqlossnorm+Gain_z1)+Loss_z1) Nodelocation: 272,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,0,-23 Valuestate: 1,0,-23,767,464,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Variable Totaldif Title: totaldif Definition: Sum(dynamic_loss,veglabels)-sum(dynamic_gain2,veglabels) Nodelocation: 384,384 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,104,18,538,367,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1M~ Ymaximum:1M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Dsat2 Title: Loss due to t at lower precip Units: km^2 Description: first interpolatiom between areas at two different T at p~~ down Definition: (If (Time=1975) Then 0 Else (((1-Tdalpha)*Sum((Sum((Loss_z~~ 2*Tdown),Temp)*Pdown),Precip))+(Tdalpha*Sum((Sum((Loss_z2*Tup),Temp)*~~ Pdown),Precip)))) Nodelocation: 216,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,180,159 Valuestate: 1,157,117,701,529,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:0.75~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Dsat3 Title: Loss due to t at higher precip Units: km^2 Description: second interpolatiom between areas at two different T at ~~ pup Definition: (If (Time=1975) Then 0 Else (((1-Tdalpha)*Sum((Sum((Loss_z~~ 2*Tdown),Temp)*Pup),Precip))+(Tdalpha*Sum((Sum((Loss_z2*Tup),Temp)*Pu~~ p),Precip)))) Nodelocation: 336,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,88,228 Valuestate: 1,157,117,748,570,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:0.75~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Dsat4 Title: Interpolated Precipt and Temp Loss Description: final interpolatiom between areas at different Ps and Ts Definition: if time = 1975 then 0 else~ (1-pdalpha)*dsat2+~ pdalpha*dsat3 Nodelocation: 272,240 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,232,242,582,418,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Close Loss1 Module Interpolation Title: Interpolation Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Tue, Jul 20, 1999 9:28 pm Nodelocation: 88,96 Nodesize: 60,24 Diagstate: 1,248,128,489,487,17 Chance Tup Title: Tup Definition: if dtemp1 < slice(temp,temp,1) then t1 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,1) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,2) then~~ t2 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,2) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,3) then~~ t3 else ~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,3) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,4) then~~ t4 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,4) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,5) then~~ t5 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,5) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,6) then~~ t6 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,6) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,7) then~~ t7 else~ t7 Nodelocation: 80,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,335,293 Valuestate: 1,101,83,730,527,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Temp] Chance Tdown Title: tdown Definition: if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,1) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,te~~ mp, 2) then t1 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,2) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,3) then ~~ t2 else ~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,3) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,4) then ~~ t3 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,4) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,5) then ~~ t4 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,5) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,6) then ~~ t5 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,6) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,7) then ~~ t6 else~ t7 Nodelocation: 176,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,120,130 Valuestate: 1,277,82,586,524,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Temp] Chance Tdalpha Title: Tdalpha Definition: if tsdown=tsup then 1 else ~ ((Dtemp1-Slice(Temp,Temp,Tsdown))/(Slice(Temp,Temp,Tsup)-Slice(Temp,T~~ emp,Tsdown))) Nodelocation: 296,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,88,98,611,496,0,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Pup Title: Pup Definition: if pt1 < slice(precip,precip,1) then p1 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,1) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,2) t~~ hen p2 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,2) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,3) t~~ hen p3 else ~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,3) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,4) t~~ hen p4 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,4) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,5) t~~ hen p5 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,5) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,6) t~~ hen p6 else~ p6 Nodelocation: 80,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,88,98 Valuestate: 1,63,68,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Precip] Chance Pdown Title: Pdown Definition: if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,1) and pt1 <= slice(precip,~~ precip,2) then p1 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,2) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,3) t~~ hen p2 else ~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,3) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,4) t~~ hen p3 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,4) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,5) t~~ hen p4 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,5) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,6) t~~ hen p5 else~ p6 Nodelocation: 176,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,427,269 Valuestate: 1,247,62,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Precip] Chance Pdalpha Title: Pdalpha Definition: if psdown=psup then 1 else~ (pt1-(slice(precip,precip,psdown)))/~ (slice(precip,precip,psup)-slice(precip,precip,psdown)) Nodelocation: 288,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,264,274,451,465,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Temp] Variable T1 Title: t1 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 1,0,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 72,296 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T2 Title: t2 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,1,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 72,336 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T3 Title: t3 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,1,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 72,376 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T4 Title: t4 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,1,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 72,416 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T5 Title: t5 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,0,1,0,0) Nodelocation: 160,296 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T6 Title: t6 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,1,0) Nodelocation: 160,336 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T7 Title: t7 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,1) Nodelocation: 160,376 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P1 Title: p1 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 1,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 272,296 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,311,321 Variable P2 Title: p2 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,1,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 272,336 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P3 Title: p3 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,1,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 272,376 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P4 Title: p4 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,0,1,0,0) Nodelocation: 272,416 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P5 Title: p5 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,0,0,1,0) Nodelocation: 360,296 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P6 Title: p6 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,1) Nodelocation: 360,336 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Tsdown Title: Tsdown Definition: if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,1) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,te~~ mp, 2) then 1 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,2) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,3) then ~~ 2 else ~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,3) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,4) then ~~ 3 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,4) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,5) then ~~ 4 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,5) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,6) then ~~ 5 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,6) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,7) then ~~ 6 else~ 7 Nodelocation: 392,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,72,82 Valuestate: 1,277,82,586,524,0,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Tsup Title: Tsup Definition: if dtemp1 < slice(temp,temp,1) then 1 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,1) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,2) then~~ 2 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,2) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,3) then~~ 3 else ~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,3) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,4) then~~ 4 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,4) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,5) then~~ 5 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,5) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,6) then~~ 6 else~ if dtemp1 > slice(temp,temp,6) and dtemp1 <= slice(temp,temp,7) then~~ 7 else~ 7 Nodelocation: 392,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,104,114 Valuestate: 1,101,83,739,623,0,SAMP Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Psup Title: Psup Definition: if pt1 < slice(precip,precip,1) then 1 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,1) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,2) t~~ hen 2 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,2) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,3) t~~ hen 3 else ~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,3) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,4) t~~ hen 4 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,4) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,5) t~~ hen 5 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,5) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,6) t~~ hen 6 else~ 6 Nodelocation: 392,256 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,88,98 Valuestate: 1,63,68,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance Psdown Title: Psdown Definition: if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,1) and pt1 <= slice(precip,~~ precip,2) then 1 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,2) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,3) t~~ hen 2 else ~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,3) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,4) t~~ hen 3 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,4) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,5) t~~ hen 4 else~ if pt1 > slice(precip,precip,5) and pt1 <= slice(precip,precip,6) t~~ hen 5 else~ 6 Nodelocation: 392,216 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,152,162 Valuestate: 1,247,62,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance Pt1 Title: pt1 Definition: slice(pt, Intervention, 1) Nodelocation: 48,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,372,369 Valuestate: 1,302,180,637,462,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:5~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0.9~ Xmaximum:1.4~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:80~ Zminimum:1975~ Zmaximum:2100~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Dtemp1 Title: dtemp1 Definition: slice(dtemp, Intervention, 1) Nodelocation: 48,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,230,84,623,462,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:5~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:10~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.25~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close Interpolation Module Loss2 Title: Gain Author: elena Date: Fri, Mar 26, 1999 11:46 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 184,168 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,360,152,481,475,17 Chance Tau1 Title: Time constants Definition: Table(Veglabels)(~ Uniform(30,200),Uniform(30,200),Uniform(40,150),Uniform(40,130),Unifo~~ rm(10,30),Uniform(15,100),Uniform(10,25),Uniform(2,15),Uniform(10,50)~~ ,Uniform(2,10),Uniform(1,2),Uniform(1,5),Uniform(1,2)) Nodelocation: 112,272 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,0,-23 Defnstate: 1,0,-23,800,499,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,4,89,783,548,0,STAT Reformdef: [Regions_12,Veglabels] Objective Dynamic_gain Title: dynamic Gain Definition: Dynamic(0,Lin_gain(Dynamic_gain2[Time-1],Gain_t_p,Tau1,5))~~ Nodelocation: 280,272 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,221,207 Valuestate: 1,92,47,616,423,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:13~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Total_unb_gains Title: Total Unbounded Gains exept for grass Units: sq km Definition: sum(dynamic_gain, veglabels)-slice(dynamic_gain,veglabels,~~ 11) Nodelocation: 208,360 Nodesize: 44,36 Windstate: 1,102,70 Valuestate: 1,128,-96,577,536,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Loss_z1 Title: Loss_z1 Definition: (If (Eqgainnorm<0) Then (-Eqgainnorm) Else 0) Nodelocation: 152,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Gain_z2 Title: Gain_z2 Definition: ((Eqgainnorm+Loss_z1)+Gain_z1) Nodelocation: 280,48 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,15,210,752,249,0,MIDM Reformval: [Precip,Temp] Variable Dynamic_gain2 Title: Dynamic gain bounded Units: sq km Definition: If Total_loss< Total_unb_gains Then ~ If Veglabels='Medium/short grassland no woody cover' Then 0~ else~ Dynamic_gain*(Total_loss/Total_unb_gains)~ Else ~ If Veglabels='Medium/short grassland no woody cover' Then ~ (Total_loss-Total_unb_gains)~ Else ~ Dynamic_gain Nodelocation: 352,360 Nodesize: 44,36 Windstate: 1,214,18 Valuestate: 1,52,-11,697,661,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:13~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Gain_pdown Title: Gain pdown Units: km^2 Description: if time = 1975 then 0 else~ (1-tdalpha)*slice(slice(gain_z2, temp, tdown), precip, pdown) +~ tdalpha*slice(slice(gain_z2, temp, tup), precip, pdown) Definition: (If (Time=1975) Then 0 Else (((1-Tdalpha)*Sum((Sum((Gain_z~~ 2*Tdown),Temp)*Pdown),Precip))+(Tdalpha*Sum((Sum((Gain_z2*Tup),Temp)*~~ Pdown),Precip)))) Nodelocation: 208,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,157,117,701,529,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:0.75~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Gain_pup Title: Gain Pup Units: km^2 Description: if time = 1975 then 0 else~ (1-tdalpha)*slice(slice(gain_z2, temp, tdown), precip, pup) +~ tdalpha*slice(slice(gain_z2, temp, tup), precip, pup) Definition: (If (Time=1975) Then 0 Else (((1-Tdalpha)*Sum((Sum((Gain_z~~ 2*Tdown),Temp)*Pup),Precip))+(Tdalpha*Sum((Sum((Gain_z2*Tup),Temp)*Pu~~ p),Precip)))) Nodelocation: 344,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,157,117,748,570,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:0.75~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Gain_t_p Title: Gain T&P Description: if time = 1975 then 0 else~ (1-pdalpha)*Gain_pdown+~ pdalpha*Gain_Pup Definition: if time = 1975 then 0 else~ (1-pdalpha)*Gain_pdown+~ pdalpha*Gain_Pup Nodelocation: 280,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,113,269 Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Close Loss2 Chance Carbon_content Title: Carbon Content Units: kg/m^2 Definition: Table(Veglabels)(~ Triangular(15,20,25),Triangular(10,14,17),Triangular(12,16.8,20),Tria~~ ngular(8,10,14),Triangular(2,5,10),Triangular(2,4,8),Triangular(4,8,1~~ 1),Triangular(0.1,0.8,1.5),Triangular(2,3,4),Triangular(1,1.5,2),Tria~~ ngular(0.5,1,3),Triangular(0.02,0.05,0.1),0) Nodelocation: 304,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,123,104 Defnstate: 1,104,118,601,308,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,136,146,795,397,0,MIDM Variable Carbon_loss Title: Carbon Loss Units: Pg Definition: Dynamic_loss*Carbon_content/1000000 Nodelocation: 304,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,224,105 Valuestate: 1,32,12,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Carbon_gain Title: Carbon Gain Units: Pg Definition: Dynamic_gain2*Carbon_Content/1000000 Nodelocation: 304,168 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,64,60,518,428,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Biomass_carbon_flux Title: Net Biomass Carbon Flux Units: Pg Description: carbon flux from vegetion to atmosphere Definition: Carbon_loss-Carbon_gain Nodelocation: 416,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,45,40 Valuestate: 1,44,11,689,423,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-5~ Ymaximum:5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:13~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Regional_flux Title: Total Regional Flux Units: Pg Definition: sum(Biomass_Carbon_flux,Veglabels) Nodelocation: 416,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,71,81 Valuestate: 1,170,68,773,619,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2.5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Variable Total_flux Title: Total Flux Units: Pg Definition: Sum(Regional_flux, Regions_12) Nodelocation: 416,168 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,183,39 Valuestate: 1,-11,11,736,605,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-100~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Variable Regional_flux1 Title: Cumulative Regional Flux Units: Pg Definition: Sum(biomass_carbon_flux, Veglabels) Nodelocation: 528,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,105,123 Valuestate: 1,93,-11,695,583,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-100~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 6 Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Objective Annual_regional_flux Title: Annual Regional Flux Units: pG/yr. Definition: dynamic(Regional_flux1/5, (Regional_flux1-Regional_flux1[t~~ ime-1])/5) Nodelocation: 528,96 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,439,71 Valuestate: 1,36,39,860,701,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-20~ Ymaximum:20~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Objective Global_land_flux Title: Net Global Land Flux Units: PgC Definition: sum(Annual_regional_flux, regions_12) Nodelocation: 528,168 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,244,131,643,539,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Close No_policy Module No_policy1 Title: Policy 1 Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Mon, Aug 30, 1999 6:23 pm Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 200,120 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,248,258,652,237,17 Nodecolor: -13107,-1,-26215 Module Loss3 Title: Loss Author: elena Date: Fri, Mar 26, 1999 11:46 AM Nodelocation: 192,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,104,114,520,448,17 Chance Tau2 Title: Time constants Units: yr Definition: Table(Veglabels)(~ Lognormal(20,2.5),Lognormal(20,2.5),Lognormal(30,2.5),Lognormal(25,2.~~ 5),Lognormal(10,1.5),Triangular(3,15,30),Lognormal(20,2),Triangular(2~~ ,5,10),Lognormal(10,1.5),Lognormal(5,1.25),Uniform(1,2),Lognormal(30,~~ 2.5),Uniform(1,4)) Nodelocation: 112,416 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,82,100,877,442,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,109,99,762,339,1,STAT Reformdef: [Regions_12,Veglabels] Objective Dynamic_loss1 Title: dynamic loss Units: km^2 Definition: Dynamic(0,Lin_loss(Dynamic_loss1[Time-1],Dsat6,Tau2,5)) Nodelocation: 280,416 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,73,42,746,661,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Total_loss1 Title: Total Loss Units: km^2 Definition: Sum(Dynamic_loss1,Veglabels) Nodelocation: 280,488 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,100,78,577,536,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Dlcheck1 Title: dlcheck Definition: (Dynamic_loss1-Dynamic_gain3) Nodelocation: 376,488 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,68,50,665,419,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-2M~ Ymaximum:0~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Gain_z3 Title: gain_z1 Units: km^2 Definition: (If (Eqlossnorm<0) Then (-Eqlossnorm) Else 0) Nodelocation: 280,144 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Temp,Veglabels] Variable Loss_z4 Title: Loss_z2 Units: km^2 Description: ((Eqlossnorm+Gain_z1)+Loss_z1) Definition: ((Eqlossnorm+Gain_z3)+Loss_z5) Nodelocation: 280,200 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,0,-23,767,464,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Variable Totaldif1 Title: totaldif Definition: (Sum(Dynamic_loss1,Veglabels)-Sum(Dynamic_gain3,Veglabels)~~ ) Nodelocation: 472,488 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,104,18,538,367,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1M~ Ymaximum:1M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Dsat1 Title: Loss due to t at lower precip Units: km^2 Description: first interpolatiom between areas at two different T at p~~ down Definition: (If (Time=1975) Then 0 Else (((1-Tdalpha1)*Sum((Sum((Loss_~~ z4*Tdown1),Temp)*Pdown1),Precip))+(Tdalpha1*Sum((Sum((Loss_z4*Tup1),T~~ emp)*Pdown1),Precip)))) Nodelocation: 224,264 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,157,117,701,529,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:0.75~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Dsat5 Title: Loss due to t at higher precip Units: km^2 Description: second interpolatiom between areas at two different T at ~~ pup Definition: (If (Time=1975) Then 0 Else (((1-Tdalpha1)*Sum((Sum((Loss_~~ z4*Tdown1),Temp)*Pup1),Precip))+(Tdalpha1*Sum((Sum((Loss_z4*Tup1),Tem~~ p)*Pup1),Precip)))) Nodelocation: 344,264 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,157,117,748,570,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:0.75~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Dsat6 Title: Interpolated Precipt and Temp Loss Description: final interpolatiom between areas at different Ps and Ts Definition: (If (Time=1975) Then 0 Else (((1-Pdalpha1)*Dsat1)+(Pdalpha~~ 1*Dsat5))) Nodelocation: 280,344 Nodesize: 44,24 Valuestate: 1,232,242,582,418,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Close Loss3 Module Interpolation1 Title: Interpolation Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Tue, Jul 20, 1999 9:28 pm Nodelocation: 96,104 Nodesize: 60,24 Diagstate: 1,265,44,602,501,17 Chance Tup1 Title: Tup Definition: (If (Dtemp2~~ Slice(Temp,Temp,1)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,2))) Then T9 Else (I~~ f ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,2)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,3))) Then~~ T10 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,3)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Te~~ mp,4))) Then T11 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,4)) And (Dtemp2<=S~~ lice(Temp,Temp,5))) Then T12 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,5)) An~~ d (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,6))) Then T13 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp~~ ,Temp,6)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,7))) Then T14 Else T14))))))) Nodelocation: 200,56 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,101,83,730,527,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Temp] Chance Tdown1 Title: tdown Definition: (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,1)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,T~~ emp,2))) Then T8 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,2)) And (Dtemp2<=S~~ lice(Temp,Temp,3))) Then T9 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,3)) And~~ (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,4))) Then T10 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,~~ Temp,4)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,5))) Then T11 Else (If ((Dtemp2~~ >Slice(Temp,Temp,5)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,6))) Then T12 Else ~~ (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,6)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,7))) Th~~ en T13 Else T14)))))) Nodelocation: 296,56 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,277,82,586,524,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Temp] Objective Trecon1 Title: Trecon Definition: (Slice(Temp,Temp,Tdown1)+(Tdalpha1*(Slice(Temp,Temp,Tup1)-~~ Slice(Temp,Temp,Tdown1)))) Nodelocation: 296,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,139,60,767,464,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Reformval: [Time,Temp] Chance Tdalpha1 Title: Tdalpha Definition: If tsdown1=tsup1 then 1 else ~ ((Dtemp2-Slice(Temp,Temp,Tsdown1))/(Slice(Temp,Temp,Tsup1)-Slice(Temp~~ ,Temp,Tsdown1))) Nodelocation: 416,56 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Pup1 Title: Pup Definition: (If (Pt2Sl~~ ice(Precip,Precip,1)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,2))) Then P8 Else~~ (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,2)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,3)))~~ Then P9 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,3)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Preci~~ p,Precip,4))) Then P10 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,4)) And (Pt~~ 2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,5))) Then P11 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Prec~~ ip,5)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,6))) Then P12 Else P12)))))) Nodelocation: 200,200 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,63,68,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Precip] Chance Pdown1 Title: Pdown Definition: (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,1)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,P~~ recip,2))) Then P7 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,2)) And (Pt2<=S~~ lice(Precip,Precip,3))) Then P8 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,3)~~ ) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,4))) Then P9 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Pre~~ cip,Precip,4)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,5))) Then P10 Else (If (~~ (Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,5)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,6))) Then ~~ P11 Else P12))))) Nodelocation: 296,200 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,247,62,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Precip] Chance Pdalpha1 Title: Pdalpha Definition: if psdown1=psup1 then 1 else~ ((Pt2-Slice(Precip,Precip,Psdown1))/(Slice(Precip,Precip,Psup1)-Slice~~ (Precip,Precip,Psdown1))) Nodelocation: 408,200 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,264,274,451,465,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Temp] Variable T8 Title: t1 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 1,0,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 192,304 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T9 Title: t2 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,1,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 192,344 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T10 Title: t3 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,1,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 192,384 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T11 Title: t4 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,1,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 192,424 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T12 Title: t5 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,0,1,0,0) Nodelocation: 280,304 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T13 Title: t6 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,1,0) Nodelocation: 280,344 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T14 Title: t7 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,1) Nodelocation: 280,384 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P7 Title: p1 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 1,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 392,304 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P8 Title: p2 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,1,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 392,344 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P9 Title: p3 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,1,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 392,384 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P10 Title: p4 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,0,1,0,0) Nodelocation: 392,424 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P11 Title: p5 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,0,0,1,0) Nodelocation: 480,304 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P12 Title: p6 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,1) Nodelocation: 480,344 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Tsdown1 Title: Tsdown Definition: (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,1)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,T~~ emp,2))) Then 1 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,2)) And (Dtemp2<=Sl~~ ice(Temp,Temp,3))) Then 2 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,3)) And (~~ Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,4))) Then 3 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp~~ ,4)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,5))) Then 4 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice~~ (Temp,Temp,5)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,6))) Then 5 Else (If ((Dt~~ emp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,6)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,7))) Then 6 Els~~ e 7)))))) Nodelocation: 512,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,277,82,586,524,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Temp] Chance Tsup1 Title: Tsup Definition: (If (Dtemp2S~~ lice(Temp,Temp,1)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,2))) Then 2 Else (If ~~ ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,2)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,3))) Then 3~~ Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,3)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,4~~ ))) Then 4 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,4)) And (Dtemp2<=Slice(T~~ emp,Temp,5))) Then 5 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,5)) And (Dtemp~~ 2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,6))) Then 6 Else (If ((Dtemp2>Slice(Temp,Temp,6)) ~~ And (Dtemp2<=Slice(Temp,Temp,7))) Then 7 Else 7))))))) Nodelocation: 512,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,101,83,265,634,0,MIDM Chance Psup1 Title: Psup Definition: (If (Pt2Sli~~ ce(Precip,Precip,1)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,2))) Then 2 Else (~~ If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,2)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,3))) T~~ hen 3 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,3)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,P~~ recip,4))) Then 4 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,4)) And (Pt2<=Sl~~ ice(Precip,Precip,5))) Then 5 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,5)) ~~ And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,6))) Then 6 Else 6)))))) Nodelocation: 512,264 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,63,68,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance Psdown1 Title: Psdown Definition: (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,1)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,P~~ recip,2))) Then 1 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,2)) And (Pt2<=Sl~~ ice(Precip,Precip,3))) Then 2 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip,Precip,3)) ~~ And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,4))) Then 3 Else (If ((Pt2>Slice(Precip~~ ,Precip,4)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,5))) Then 4 Else (If ((Pt2>~~ Slice(Precip,Precip,5)) And (Pt2<=Slice(Precip,Precip,6))) Then 5 Els~~ e 6))))) Nodelocation: 512,224 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,247,62,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance Pt2 Title: pt2 Definition: slice(pt, Intervention, 2) Nodelocation: 168,152 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,302,180,637,462,1,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:5~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0.9~ Xmaximum:1.4~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:80~ Zminimum:1975~ Zmaximum:2100~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance Dtemp2 Title: dtemp2 Definition: slice(dtemp, Intervention, 2) Nodelocation: 168,112 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,230,84,623,462,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:5~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:10~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.25~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Close Interpolation1 Module Loss5 Title: Gain Author: elena Date: Fri, Mar 26, 1999 11:46 AM Nodelocation: 192,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,88,98,559,377,17 Chance Tau3 Title: Time constants Definition: Table(Veglabels)(~ Uniform(30,200),Uniform(30,200),Uniform(40,150),Uniform(40,130),Unifo~~ rm(10,30),Uniform(15,100),Uniform(10,25),Uniform(2,15),Uniform(10,50)~~ ,Uniform(2,10),Uniform(1,2),Uniform(1,5),Uniform(1,2)) Nodelocation: 216,400 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,0,-23,800,499,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,4,89,783,548,0,STAT Reformdef: [Regions_12,Veglabels] Objective Dynamic_gain1 Title: dynamic Gain Definition: Dynamic(0,Lin_gain(Dynamic_gain3[Time-1],Gain_t_p1,Tau3,5)~~ ) Nodelocation: 384,400 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,92,47,616,423,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:13~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Total_unb_gains1 Title: Total Unbounded Gains exept for grass Units: sq km Definition: (Sum(Dynamic_gain1,Veglabels)-Slice(Dynamic_gain1,Veglabel~~ s,11)) Nodelocation: 312,488 Nodesize: 44,36 Valuestate: 1,128,-96,577,536,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Loss_z5 Title: Loss_z1 Definition: (If (Eqgainnorm<0) Then (-Eqgainnorm) Else 0) Nodelocation: 256,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Gain_z5 Title: Gain_z2 Definition: ((Eqgainnorm+Loss_z5)+Gain_z3) Nodelocation: 384,176 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,15,210,752,249,0,MIDM Reformval: [Precip,Temp] Variable Dynamic_gain3 Title: Dynamic gain bounded Units: sq km Definition: (If (Total_loss1Slice(Temp,Temp,1)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,2))) Then T16 Else ~~ (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,2)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,3))) Th~~ en T17 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,3)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,~~ Temp,4))) Then T18 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,4)) And (Dtemp3<~~ =Slice(Temp,Temp,5))) Then T19 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,5)) ~~ And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,6))) Then T20 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Te~~ mp,Temp,6)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,7))) Then T21 Else T21))))))~~ ) Nodelocation: 96,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,101,83,730,527,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Temp] Chance Tdown2 Title: tdown Definition: (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,1)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,T~~ emp,2))) Then T15 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,2)) And (Dtemp3<=~~ Slice(Temp,Temp,3))) Then T16 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,3)) A~~ nd (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,4))) Then T17 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Tem~~ p,Temp,4)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,5))) Then T18 Else (If ((Dtem~~ p3>Slice(Temp,Temp,5)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,6))) Then T19 Els~~ e (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,6)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,7))) ~~ Then T20 Else T21)))))) Nodelocation: 192,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,277,82,586,524,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Temp] Chance Tdalpha2 Title: Tdalpha Definition: if tsdown2=tsup2 then 1 else~ ((Dtemp3-Slice(Temp,Temp,Tsdown2))/(Slice(Temp,Temp,Tsup2)-Slice(Temp~~ ,Temp,Tsdown2))) Nodelocation: 312,64 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Pup2 Title: Pup Definition: (If (Pt3S~~ lice(Precip,Precip,1)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,2))) Then P14 El~~ se (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,2)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,3)~~ )) Then P15 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,3)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Pr~~ ecip,Precip,4))) Then P16 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,4)) And ~~ (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,5))) Then P17 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,P~~ recip,5)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,6))) Then P18 Else P18)))))) Nodelocation: 96,208 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,63,68,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Precip] Chance Pdown2 Title: Pdown Definition: (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,1)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,P~~ recip,2))) Then P13 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,2)) And (Pt3<=~~ Slice(Precip,Precip,3))) Then P14 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,~~ 3)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,4))) Then P15 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(~~ Precip,Precip,4)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,5))) Then P16 Else (I~~ f ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,5)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,6))) Th~~ en P17 Else P18))))) Nodelocation: 192,208 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,247,62,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Precip] Chance Pdalpha2 Title: Pdalpha Definition: if psdown2=psup2 then 1 else~ ((Pt3-Slice(Precip,Precip,Psdown2))/(Slice(Precip,Precip,Psup2)-Slice~~ (Precip,Precip,Psdown2))) Nodelocation: 304,208 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,264,274,451,465,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Temp] Variable T15 Title: t1 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 1,0,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 88,312 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T16 Title: t2 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,1,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 88,352 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T17 Title: t3 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,1,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 88,392 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T18 Title: t4 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,1,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 88,432 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T19 Title: t5 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,0,1,0,0) Nodelocation: 176,312 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T20 Title: t6 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,1,0) Nodelocation: 176,352 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable T21 Title: t7 Definition: Table(Temp)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,1) Nodelocation: 176,392 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P13 Title: p1 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 1,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 288,312 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P14 Title: p2 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,1,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 288,352 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P15 Title: p3 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,1,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 288,392 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P16 Title: p4 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,0,1,0,0) Nodelocation: 288,432 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P17 Title: p5 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,0,0,1,0) Nodelocation: 376,312 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable P18 Title: p6 Definition: Table(Precip)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,1) Nodelocation: 376,352 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Tsdown2 Title: Tsdown Definition: (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,1)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,T~~ emp,2))) Then 1 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,2)) And (Dtemp3<=Sl~~ ice(Temp,Temp,3))) Then 2 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,3)) And (~~ Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,4))) Then 3 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp~~ ,4)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,5))) Then 4 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice~~ (Temp,Temp,5)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,6))) Then 5 Else (If ((Dt~~ emp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,6)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,7))) Then 6 Els~~ e 7)))))) Nodelocation: 408,40 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,277,82,586,524,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Temp] Chance Tsup2 Title: Tsup Definition: (If (Dtemp3S~~ lice(Temp,Temp,1)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,2))) Then 2 Else (If ~~ ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,2)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,3))) Then 3~~ Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,3)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,4~~ ))) Then 4 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,4)) And (Dtemp3<=Slice(T~~ emp,Temp,5))) Then 5 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,5)) And (Dtemp~~ 3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,6))) Then 6 Else (If ((Dtemp3>Slice(Temp,Temp,6)) ~~ And (Dtemp3<=Slice(Temp,Temp,7))) Then 7 Else 7))))))) Nodelocation: 408,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,101,83,265,634,0,MIDM Chance Psup2 Title: Psup Definition: (If (Pt3Sli~~ ce(Precip,Precip,1)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,2))) Then 2 Else (~~ If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,2)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,3))) T~~ hen 3 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,3)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,P~~ recip,4))) Then 4 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,4)) And (Pt3<=Sl~~ ice(Precip,Precip,5))) Then 5 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,5)) ~~ And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,6))) Then 6 Else 6)))))) Nodelocation: 408,272 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,63,68,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance Psdown2 Title: Psdown Definition: (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,1)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,P~~ recip,2))) Then 1 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,2)) And (Pt3<=Sl~~ ice(Precip,Precip,3))) Then 2 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip,Precip,3)) ~~ And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,4))) Then 3 Else (If ((Pt3>Slice(Precip~~ ,Precip,4)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,5))) Then 4 Else (If ((Pt3>~~ Slice(Precip,Precip,5)) And (Pt3<=Slice(Precip,Precip,6))) Then 5 Els~~ e 6))))) Nodelocation: 408,232 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,247,62,609,677,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:4~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:5~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance Pt3 Title: pt3 Definition: slice(pt, Intervention, 3) Nodelocation: 64,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,302,180,637,462,1,STAT Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:5~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0.9~ Xmaximum:1.4~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:80~ Zminimum:1975~ Zmaximum:2100~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Chance Dtemp3 Title: dtemp3 Definition: slice(dtemp, Intervention, 3) Nodelocation: 64,120 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,230,84,623,462,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:5~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:10~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.25~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Close Interpolation2 Module Loss8 Title: Gain Author: elena Date: Fri, Mar 26, 1999 11:46 AM Nodelocation: 200,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Tau5 Title: Time constants Definition: Table(Veglabels)(~ Uniform(30,200),Uniform(30,200),Uniform(40,150),Uniform(40,130),Unifo~~ rm(10,30),Uniform(15,100),Uniform(10,25),Uniform(2,15),Uniform(10,50)~~ ,Uniform(2,10),Uniform(1,2),Uniform(1,5),Uniform(1,2)) Nodelocation: 224,408 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,0,-23,800,499,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,4,89,783,548,0,STAT Reformdef: [Regions_12,Veglabels] Objective Dynamic_gain4 Title: dynamic Gain Definition: Dynamic(0,Lin_gain(Dynamic_gain5[Time-1],Gain_t_p2,Tau5,5)~~ ) Nodelocation: 392,408 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,92,47,616,423,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:13~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Veglabels] Variable Total_unb_gains2 Title: Total Unbounded Gains exept for grass Units: sq km Definition: (Sum(Dynamic_gain4,Veglabels)-Slice(Dynamic_gain4,Veglabel~~ s,11)) Nodelocation: 320,496 Nodesize: 44,36 Valuestate: 1,128,-96,577,536,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Loss_z8 Title: Loss_z1 Definition: (If (Eqgainnorm<0) Then (-Eqgainnorm) Else 0) Nodelocation: 264,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Variable Gain_z8 Title: Gain_z2 Definition: ((Eqgainnorm+Loss_z8)+Gain_z6) Nodelocation: 392,184 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,15,210,752,249,0,MIDM Reformval: [Precip,Temp] Variable Dynamic_gain5 Title: Dynamic gain bounded Units: sq km Definition: (If (Total_loss210% lost in the process).~ ¥ Revenue neutral where all collected carbon taxes is simply re~~ cycled in the economy.~ ¥ Double dividend, where taxes collected lead to a 10% gain in ~~ the economy. ~ Nodelocation: 272,128,-1 Nodesize: 276,132 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Text Te8 Description: . The challenge in estimating the economics of climate ~~ policy is that abatement costs occur~ much sooner that expected benefits are realized. Comparing thes~~ e costs and benefits is ~ only possible if they are discounted to represent lump sums at t~~ he same time. ~ ~ The choice of an appropriate discount rate has been an important~~ debate in the climate ~ policy arena. Some believe that the rate of economic growth sho~~ uld be the discount rate.~ This would lead to all generations being treated equally. Other~~ s suggest that there should~ be no discounting. Thus, costs one hundred years from now are e~~ qual to those today. In~ the node below the user can choose from a number of discount sch~~ emes. The lower the~ discount rate, the more we value streams of costs and benefits f~~ ar into the future.~ Nodelocation: 272,384,-1 Nodesize: 276,88 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Text Te16 Title: Te10 Description: ~ . Now please close this window and proceed to designing~~ the Demographic module. Nodelocation: 304,528,-1 Nodesize: 308,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-6557,-13109 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Close Design_the_financial Module Design_of_the_popula Title: Design the Demographics Module Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 9 Nov, 1997 17:41 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 256,264,0 Nodesize: 200,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,1, Diagstate: 1,186,141,540,468,17 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 14 Text Te21 Description: . Population projections are critical to the total leve~~ l of future economic activity, energy~ consumption, etc. In ICAM, two different models of population pr~~ ojection are available:~ ~ 1) A simple model which tries to replicate United Nations projection~~ s for regional ~ populaton change. This model is very fast computationally, and ~~ is relatively more~ certain in its range.~ 2) There is also a more complex model with explicit treatment of soci~~ o-economic factors~ which may through time shape the patterns of births, infant mort~~ ality, and life expectancy. ~ This model has been estimated using cross sectional and time ser~~ ies data, and generates ~ demographic transitions for many regions of the world, but is co~~ mputationally slow, and ~ takes up a great deal of memory. It is however a model which is~~ fully integrated with the ~ rest of ICAM's simulations of economic and social trends. Nodelocation: 264,104 Nodesize: 264,104 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Formnode Demographic_transiti Title: Demographic Transition? Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 264,368 Nodesize: 252,16 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: 19664,-1,19661 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: Demographics_mod Text Te22 Description: . By choosing NO:~ The model will run faster and use far less memory. This model~~ is calibrated to the range of population ~ projections used in the IPCC Third Assessment Report.~ By choosing YES:~ The model will generate population projections which are influ~~ enced by how economic and social ~ indicators evolve over time. In this model, there is demograph~~ ic transition, this leads to a lower ~ median, and a higher mean population projection due to far high~~ er uncertainties. The model will ~ require an additional megabyte of RAM per sample and runs signf~~ icantly slower. ~ Nodelocation: 264,278 Nodesize: 264,70 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-11469,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Text Te5 Title: Te10 Description: ~ . Now pl~~ ease proceed to Landcover dyanmics module. Nodelocation: 272,416 Nodesize: 308,24 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-6557,-13109 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Close Design_of_the_popula Module Engage_the_landcover Title: Engage the Landcover Module Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Mon, Sep 13, 1999 4:30 pm Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 256,312,0 Nodesize: 200,24 Diagstate: 1,121,72,531,436,17 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Text Te2 Description: ~ The ecological aspects of climate change are complex and potenti~~ ally one of the most ~ significant impacts. Unmanaged ecosystems adjust to chaning cli~~ matic conditions through~ changing land cover. The impacts of this dynamics process occur~~ at many levels. At the ~ level of species diversity and ecology, these changes are likel~~ y to lead to shifts in ecological~ communities and species "stranded" in a geographical location ~~ may find the new ecology~ sufficiently hostile to face extinction. At the other end of th~~ e scale, landcover changes take~ place through the death of existing landcover, and establishmen~~ t of a new communnity of ~ plants and animals. The fluxes out of the terrestrial system (d~~ uring die-back) and into the ~ terrestrical ecosystem at times of new growth change the atmosp~~ heric budget of CO2. ~ ~ Landcover dynamics therefore interacts with the climate system ~~ through the carbon cycle and~ through modification of energy, momentum and moisture dynamics ~~ at the earth's surface. ~ ~ A reduced form model of landscape change has been developed for ~~ ICAM-3. The model is ~ extremely computation and extensive, generating changes in landc~~ over by 13 landcover types~ for each of the 12 regions within ICAM-3. The module takes about~~ 10 minutes to calculate the ~ median value for the outcomes, and uses close to 15 megabytes of~~ additional memory in doing~ so. The median CO2 flux calculation is roughly 0.5GT/yr CO2 flux~~ out of the terrestrial ecosystem~ simply as a consequence of dynamic landcover changes in response~~ to climate change. In a world~ where median anthropogenic emissions are 6GT and growing to more~~ than 20GT/yr, it seems~ appropriate to leave the feedback between the terrestrial ecosys~~ tem and climate change as an~ optional calculation and at the discretion of the user. ~ ~ Nodelocation: 264,146 Nodesize: 264,146 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Text Te34 Title: Te17 Description: ~ The swith below controls how ICAM uses the ecosystem module.~ Nodelocation: 264,318 Nodesize: 264,26 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-11469,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Formnode Ecosystem_feedback_ Title: Ecosystem feedback? Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 248,360 Nodesize: 236,16 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: 19664,-1,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 9 Original: Ecosyst_sw Text Te35 Title: Te10 Description: . Now please close this ~~ window and proceed to model OUTPUTS. Nodelocation: 280,392 Nodesize: 288,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-6557,-13109 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Close Engage_the_landcover Close Structure Module Inputs2 Title: Inputs Author: Hadi Date: Fri, May 16, 1997 10:29 AM Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 72,376,0 Nodesize: 80,24 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,429,29,552,478,17 Nodecolor: 19661,-17200,-1 Diagramcolor: 1,-31129,-26215 Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 14 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 18 Text Te4 Description: .~ In order to run a simulation you need to make two sets of decisi~~ ons:~ i - First, you have to decide what kinds of future scenarios the~~ model should simulate. The IPCC~ scenario writing team has proposed four scenarios with speci~~ fic demographic, economic,~ technological, energy and emissions characteristics. Or, y~~ ou can use ICAM's capacity to generate a~ much wider range of possible futures reflecting the uncertai~~ nty in our knowledge about many~ aspects of these issues. So the first choice is:~ a) the scenarios designed by the IPCC for the Third Ass~~ essment Report,~ b) a wider set of possible futures.~ ii - Second, ICAM can be used to explore the consequences of a us~~ er prescribed policy -- you set ~ the price of carbon and the model simulates how the economy~~ and energy markets respond,~ what happens to emissions, atmospheric concentrations of gr~~ eenhouse gases, aerosols, what ~ climate change might then take place, the impacts that woul~~ d have, and the overall impact the~ prescribed policy is going to have on people's welfare and ~~ various indicators of the health of the~ planet. Alternatively, you can use to model to simulate h~~ ow "we as well intentioned agents"~ cope with agreeing to a climate policy and then cope with m~~ eeting our committments through~ monitoring changes in the environment, setting policy in mo~~ tion, and revising our actions at~ each time period. So the second choice is:~ a) to explore the consequences of a prescribed carbon t~~ ax;~ b) to explore whether various policies can be successfu~~ lly pursued using behaviorally realistic~ representations of global and regional decision-makers.~~ ~ . Nodelocation: 284,189,-1 Nodesize: 284,189 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,155,326 Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Module I__what_future_scena Title: i) What future scenarios of the world to simulate? Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 29 Jul, 1998 13:19 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 136,408,0 Nodesize: 132,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,29,44,562,389,17 Nodecolor: -22937,-1,19661 Diagramcolor: -26215,-1,-1 Formnode Scenario1 Title: Scenario Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 272,328 Nodesize: 264,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Original: Choose_an_ipcc_scena Text Te32 Description: A group of scientists at the Integovermental Panel on Cli~~ mate Change (IPCC) are charged with developing "scenarios" of future ~~ greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. These emission scenarios are u~~ sed by others scientists to develop standardized simulations of clim~~ ate change, its impacts, and mitigation strategies. For the Third As~~ sessment Report, due out in 2001, four basic scenarios have been deve~~ loped by the IPCC. Four key assumptions about demographics, economic~~ s, energy efficiency, and availability of oil and gas drive the featu~~ res of these scenarios. More specifically, you can pick one of these~~ scenarios from the set bellow:~ ¥ A1: Low population growth, high economic growth, high energy use, c~~ ontinued availability of oil and gas, and highest CO2 emissions.~ ¥ A2: High population growth, low economic growth, coal and non-fossi~~ ls have the lion's share of energy from 2050 onwards, continued avail~~ ability of oil and gas, and high CO2 emissions.~ ¥ B1: Low population growth, medium economic growth, low energy use, ~~ continued availability of oil and gas. As non-fossils grow also, coa~~ l use is supressed and there are low CO2 emissions.~ ¥ B2: Medium population growth leveling at about 10b, low economic gr~~ owth, low energy use, oil, gas and nonfossils dominate coal, and low ~~ CO2 emissions.~ ~ These scenarios are simulated in ICAM by changing some of the key var~~ iables and then generating the median estimates from the model. The ~~ model can also be used to generate a much fuller range of possible fu~~ tures consistant with our current understanding of demographics, econ~~ omics, energy markets, and technical change. You can access this ful~~ ler range of future scenarios by selecting the FULL button below. Nodelocation: 272,160 Nodesize: 264,112 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 10 Text Te24 Description: .~ A brief explanation of the scenarios ~ from the IPCC & available using ICAM Nodelocation: 272,16 Nodesize: 160,32 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 18 Close I__what_future_scena Module Ii__specify_the_clim Title: ii) Specify the climate policy Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Jul 31, 1998 9:41 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 400,408,0 Nodesize: 132,24 Diagstate: 1,400,112,605,441,17 Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-11474 Diagramcolor: -13109,-1639,-1 Module Input_choice_details Title: Input Choice Details Author: Hadi Date: Sat, May 24, 1997 2:54 PM Nodelocation: 296,383 Nodesize: 316,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,0,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,259,75,467,568,17 Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 14 Decision How_is_the_climate_p Title: How is the Climate Policy Specified? Description: This switch controls wether the model is run to calculate~~ outcome associated with a prescribed tax trajectory or a number of d~~ ifferent adaptive management paradigms. Definition: Choice(Objective1,4) Nodelocation: 80,40 Nodesize: 76,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0 Windstate: 1,51,275 Valuestate: 1,265,275,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Control_paradigm1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,13107 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Decision A1_tax_level_ Title: 1-Tax Level? Units: $/TC Description: When a tax is prescribed, the user has a choice of pre-en~~ tered tax regimes. Definition: Choice(Tax_choice,4) Nodelocation: 80,152 Nodesize: 76,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0 Windstate: 1,262,196 Valuestate: 1,265,275,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Choose_a_tax_regime1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,13107 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Decision Distribute_the_burde Title: How is the Burden of Climate Control to be Distributed? Description: When a tax is prescribed, the user has a choice of pre-en~~ tered tax regimes. Definition: Choice(Burden_choice,1) Nodelocation: 80,96 Nodesize: 76,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,239,216 Valuestate: 1,265,275,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Distribute_the_burd1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,13107 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Module Burden_sharing Title: Burden Sharing Author: Hadi Date: Mon, May 26, 1997 9:10 AM Nodelocation: 208,96 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,184,194,449,243,17 Nodecolor: 19661,-17200,-1 Constant Annex_1_to_2050_all_ Title: Annex 1 to 2025~ Other join in Definition: Table(Regions_12,Action_index)(~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2025,0.1,2050,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2025,0.1,2050,~ 2025,0.1,2050,~ 2025,0.1,2050,~ 2025,0.1,2050,~ 2025,0.1,2050,~ 2025,0.1,2050,~ 2025,0.1,2050,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000~ ) Nodelocation: 120,112 Nodesize: 64,20 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -5,-26215,-1 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant Annex_1_only Title: Annex 1 Only Definition: Table(Regions_12,Action_index)(~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000~ ) Nodelocation: 120,80 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -5,-26215,-1 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant Universal_and_equal Title: Universal and Equal Definition: Table(Regions_12,Action_index)(~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000,~ 2000,1,2000~ ) Nodelocation: 120,48 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -5,-26215,-1 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Variable Regional_burden_of_3 Title: REGIONAL~ BURDEN of~ ABATEMENT Definition: If Distribute_the_Burde =slice(Burden_choice, Burden_choic~~ e, 1) then Universal_and_equal else ~ If Distribute_the_Burde =slice(Burden_choice, Burden_choice, 2) then ~~ Annex_1_only else ~ If Distribute_the_Burde =slice(Burden_choice, Burden_choice, 3) then ~~ Annex_1_to_2050_all_ else ~ {If Distribute_the_Burde =slice(Burden_choice, Burden_choice, 4) ~ then Gnppc_ratios else}~ Users_choice Nodelocation: 248,80 Nodesize: 56,40 Windstate: 1,285,158 Defnstate: 1,286,130,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant Users_choice Title: Users Choice Definition: Table(Regions_12,Action_index)(~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100,~ 2100,0,2100~ ) Nodelocation: 120,144 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -5,-26215,-1 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Index Burden_choice Title: Burden Choice Description: This is a list of alternative burden sharing schemes. Definition: ['Equal','A1 Only','A1 to 2025, Others Join in','GNP per c~~ apita Based','User defined'] Nodelocation: 248,144 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,301,160 Nodecolor: -5,-26215,-1 Close Burden_sharing Module Tax_prescriptions Title: Tax Prescriptions Author: Hadi Date: Mon, May 26, 1997 9:10 AM Nodelocation: 208,152 Nodesize: 56,24 Diagstate: 1,272,135,449,243,17 Nodecolor: 19661,-17200,-1 Variable Regional_tax Title: Regional Tax Definition: (If (A1_tax_level_=Slice(Tax_choice,Tax_choice,1)) Then Co~~ nstant__5_tc Else (If (A1_tax_level_=Slice(Tax_choice,Tax_choice,2)) ~~ Then Constant__50_tc Else (If (A1_tax_level_=Slice(Tax_choice,Tax_cho~~ ice,3)) Then Ramped__1_tc_yr Else (If (A1_tax_level_=Slice(Tax_choice~~ ,Tax_choice,4)) Then Ramped__4_tc_yr Else User_s_choice)))) Nodelocation: 192,80 Nodesize: 44,36 Windstate: 1,113,110 Defnstate: 1,105,125,667,366,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,100,110,712,558,1,MIDM Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Index Tax_choice Title: Tax Choice Description: This index provides a choice of prescribed taxes. Definition: ['$5 /TC for ever','$50 /TC for ever','$1 /TC/year','$4 /T~~ C/year','User defined'] Nodelocation: 192,144 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,343,356 Variable Constant__5_tc Title: Constant $5/TC Definition: 5*tax_blank Nodelocation: 72,24 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,105,125,667,366,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,82,52,712,558,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Regions_12,Time] Variable Ramped__4_tc_yr Title: Ramped $4/TC/Yr Definition: dynamic(20*tax_blank, Ramped__4_tc_yr[time-1]+20*tax_blank~~ ) Nodelocation: 72,120 Nodesize: 64,16 Valuestate: 1,264,280,528,420,1,MIDM Reformdef: [Regions_12,Time] Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Constant__50_tc Title: Constant $50/TC Definition: 50*tax_blank Nodelocation: 72,56 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,105,125,667,366,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,82,52,712,558,0,MIDM Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Regions_12,Time] Variable Ramped__1_tc_yr Title: Ramped $1/TC/Yr Definition: dynamic(5*tax_blank, Ramped__1_tc_yr[time-1]+5*tax_blank) Nodelocation: 72,88 Nodesize: 64,16 Windstate: 1,308,246 Defnstate: 1,105,125,667,366,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,100,110,712,558,1,MIDM Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Constant User_s_choice Title: User's choice Definition: Table(Time,Intervention,Regions_12)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0~ ) Nodelocation: 312,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,105,125,667,366,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,82,52,712,558,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode User_s_choice4 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Regions_12,Time] Variable Tax_blank Title: Tax Blank Definition: (Ifall (Regions_12='neverland') Then 0 Else (Ifall (Interv~~ ention='No Abatement') Then 0 Else (Ifall ((Intervention='Abate in 20~~ 00') And (Time>1995)) Then 1 Else (If (Time>2020) Then 1 Else 0)))) Nodelocation: 192,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Close Tax_prescriptions Decision A2_world_em__limit_ Title: 2-World Em. Limit? Units: GTC/Yr Description: When a tax is prescribed, the user has a choice of pre-en~~ tered tax regimes. Definition: Choice(Ge_choice,3) Nodelocation: 80,208 Nodesize: 76,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,265,275,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Pick_a_global_emiss1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,13107 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Decision A4_co2_conc__limit_ Title: 4-CO2 Conc. Limit? Units: ppm Description: When a tax is prescribed, the user has a choice of pre-en~~ tered tax regimes. Definition: Choice(Conc_choice,3) Nodelocation: 80,320 Nodesize: 76,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,265,275,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Pick_co2_concentrat1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,13107 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Decision A5_global__t_limit_ Title: 5-Global ±T Limit? Units: °C Description: When a tax is prescribed, the user has a choice of pre-en~~ tered tax regimes. Definition: Choice(Temp_choice,4) Nodelocation: 80,376 Nodesize: 76,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,127,253 Valuestate: 1,265,275,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Pick_a_global_tempe1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,13107 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Module Temperature_choices Title: Temperature Choices Author: Hadi Date: Mon, May 26, 1997 9:10 AM Nodelocation: 208,376 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,303,98,337,314,17 Nodecolor: 19661,-17200,-1 Constant A_t_2 Title: ±T=2 Units: °C Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 2 Nodelocation: 64,88 Nodesize: 52,16 Constant A_t_2_5 Title: ±T=2.5 Units: °C Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 2.5 Nodelocation: 64,120 Nodesize: 52,16 Constant A_t_3 Title: ±T=3 Units: °C Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 3 Nodelocation: 64,152 Nodesize: 52,16 Constant A_t_3_5 Title: ±T=3.5 Units: °C Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 3.5 Nodelocation: 64,184 Nodesize: 52,16 Constant A_t_4 Title: ±T=4 Units: °C Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 4 Nodelocation: 64,216 Nodesize: 52,16 Index Temp_choice Title: Temp Choice Units: °C Description: ['1','1.5','2','2.5','3','3.5','4','User's Choice'] Definition: ['1.0°C','1.5°C','2.0°C','2.5°C','3.0°C','3.5°C','4.0°C','~~ User defined'] Nodelocation: 176,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable Global_temperature_c Title: Global Temperature Change Definition: (If (A5_global__t_limit_=Slice(Temp_choice,Temp_choice,1))~~ Then A_t_1 Else (If (A5_global__t_limit_=Slice(Temp_choice,Temp_choi~~ ce,2)) Then A_t_1_5 Else (If (A5_global__t_limit_=Slice(Temp_choice,T~~ emp_choice,3)) Then A_t_2 Else (If (A5_global__t_limit_=Slice(Temp_ch~~ oice,Temp_choice,4)) Then A_t_2_5 Else (If (A5_global__t_limit_=Slice~~ (Temp_choice,Temp_choice,5)) Then A_t_3 Else (If (A5_global__t_limit_~~ =Slice(Temp_choice,Temp_choice,6)) Then A_t_3_5 Else (If (A5_global__~~ t_limit_=Slice(Temp_choice,Temp_choice,7)) Then A_t_4 Else User_s_cho~~ ice1))))))) Nodelocation: 184,120 Nodesize: 52,44 Windstate: 1,132,66 Constant A_t_1_5 Title: ±T=1.5 Units: °C Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 1.5 Nodelocation: 64,56 Nodesize: 52,16 Constant A_t_1 Title: ±T=1 Units: °C Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 64,24 Nodesize: 52,16 Constant User_s_choice1 Title: User's Choice Units: °C Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 2 Nodelocation: 64,256 Nodesize: 52,20 Aliases: Formnode User_s_choice5 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Close Temperature_choices Module Concentration_choice Title: Concentration Choices Author: Hadi Date: Mon, May 26, 1997 9:10 AM Nodelocation: 208,320 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,234,169,480,295,17 Constant A350 Title: 350 Units: PPM Description: Target Upper bound on Atmospheric Concentration of CO2. Definition: 350 Nodelocation: 96,24 Nodesize: 56,16 Constant A400 Title: 400 Units: PPM Description: Target Upper bound on Atmospheric Concentration of CO2. Definition: 400 Nodelocation: 96,56 Nodesize: 56,16 Constant A450 Title: 450 Units: PPM Description: Target Upper bound on Atmospheric Concentration of CO2. Definition: 450 Nodelocation: 96,88 Nodesize: 56,16 Constant A500 Title: 500 Units: PPM Description: Target Upper bound on Atmospheric Concentration of CO2. Definition: 500 Nodelocation: 96,120 Nodesize: 56,16 Constant A550 Title: 550 Units: PPM Description: Target Upper bound on Atmospheric Concentration of CO2. Definition: 550 Nodelocation: 96,152 Nodesize: 56,16 Constant A650 Title: 650 Units: PPM Description: Target Upper bound on Atmospheric Concentration of CO2. Definition: 650 Nodelocation: 96,184 Nodesize: 56,16 Constant A750 Title: 750 Units: PPM Description: Target Upper bound on Atmospheric Concentration of CO2. Definition: 750 Nodelocation: 96,216 Nodesize: 56,16 Index Conc_choice Title: Conc Choice Description: ['350 ppm','400 ppm','450 ppm','500 ppm','550 ppm','650 p~~ pm','750 ppm','User's Choice'] Definition: ['350 ppm','400 ppm','450 ppm','500 ppm','550 ppm','650 pp~~ m','750 ppm','User defined'] Nodelocation: 272,240 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,88,98 Variable Global_co2_concentra Title: Global CO2 Concentration Limit Definition: (If (A4_co2_conc__limit_=Slice(Conc_choice,Conc_choice,1))~~ Then A350 Else (If (A4_co2_conc__limit_=Slice(Conc_choice,Conc_choic~~ e,2)) Then A400 Else (If (A4_co2_conc__limit_=Slice(Conc_choice,Conc_~~ choice,3)) Then A450 Else (If (A4_co2_conc__limit_=Slice(Conc_choice,~~ Conc_choice,4)) Then A500 Else (If (A4_co2_conc__limit_=Slice(Conc_ch~~ oice,Conc_choice,5)) Then A550 Else (If (A4_co2_conc__limit_=Slice(Co~~ nc_choice,Conc_choice,6)) Then A650 Else (If (A4_co2_conc__limit_=Sli~~ ce(Conc_choice,Conc_choice,7)) Then A750 Else User_s_choice2))))))) Nodelocation: 256,128 Nodesize: 76,56 Windstate: 1,264,274 Valuestate: 1,312,322,416,303,0,MIDM Constant User_s_choice2 Title: User's Choice Units: PPM Description: Target Upper bound on Atmospheric Concentration of CO2. Definition: 450 Nodelocation: 96,248 Nodesize: 52,20 Aliases: Formnode User_s_choice6 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Close Concentration_choice Decision A3_regonal_em__limit Title: 3-Reg. Em. Limits? Units: GTC/Yr Description: When a tax is prescribed, the user has a choice of pre-en~~ tered tax regimes. Definition: Choice(Re_choice,2) Nodelocation: 80,264 Nodesize: 76,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,265,275,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Pick_regional_emiss1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,13107 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Decision A6_rate_of__t_ Title: 6-Rate of ±T? Units: °C/Yr Description: When a tax is prescribed, the user has a choice of pre-en~~ tered tax regimes. Definition: Choice(Temp_choice1,2) Nodelocation: 80,432 Nodesize: 76,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,265,275,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Pick_a_rate_of__t1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,13107 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Module Rate_of__t__choices Title: Rate of ±T Choices Author: Hadi Date: Mon, May 26, 1997 9:10 AM Nodelocation: 208,432 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,257,157,434,303,17 Constant A_02_c_yr Title: .02°C/Yr Units: °C/Yr Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 0.02 Nodelocation: 72,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Constant A_025_c_yr Title: .025°C/Yr Units: °C/Yr Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 0.025 Nodelocation: 72,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Constant A_03_c_yr Title: .03°C/Yr Units: °C/Yr Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 0.03 Nodelocation: 72,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Constant A_035_c_yr Title: .035°C/Yr Units: °C/Yr Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 0.035 Nodelocation: 72,192 Nodesize: 52,20 Constant A_04_c_yr Title: .04°C/Yr Units: °C/Yr Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 0.04 Nodelocation: 72,224 Nodesize: 52,20 Index Temp_choice1 Title: Temp Choice Units: °C/Yr Description: ['.01','.015','.02','.025','.03','.035','.04','User's Cho~~ ice'] Definition: ['0.010°C/year','0.015°C/year','0.020°C/year','0.025°C/yea~~ r','0.030°C/year','0.035°C/year','0.04°C/year','User defined'] Nodelocation: 184,240 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable Global__rate_of_temp Title: Global Rate of Temperature Change Definition: (If (A6_rate_of__t_=Slice(Temp_choice1,Temp_choice1,1)) Th~~ en A_01_c_yr Else (If (A6_rate_of__t_=Slice(Temp_choice1,Temp_choice1~~ ,2)) Then A_015_c_yr Else (If (A6_rate_of__t_=Slice(Temp_choice1,Temp~~ _choice1,3)) Then A_02_c_yr Else (If (A6_rate_of__t_=Slice(Temp_choic~~ e1,Temp_choice1,4)) Then A_025_c_yr Else (If (A6_rate_of__t_=Slice(Te~~ mp_choice1,Temp_choice1,5)) Then A_03_c_yr Else (If (A6_rate_of__t_=S~~ lice(Temp_choice1,Temp_choice1,6)) Then A_035_c_yr Else (If (A6_rate_~~ of__t_=Slice(Temp_choice1,Temp_choice1,7)) Then A_04_c_yr Else User_s~~ _choice3))))))) Nodelocation: 192,128 Nodesize: 52,44 Windstate: 1,237,134 Constant A_015_c_yr Title: .015°C/Yr Units: °C/Yr Description: Global average temperature change Definition: 0.015 Nodelocation: 72,64 Nodesize: 52,20 Constant A_01_c_yr Title: .01°C/Yr Units: °C/Yr Description: Global average temperature change Definition: .01 Nodelocation: 72,32 Nodesize: 52,20 Constant User_s_choice3 Title: User's Choice Units: °C/Yr Description: Global average temperature change Definition: .0125 Nodelocation: 72,256 Nodesize: 52,20 Aliases: Formnode User_s_choice7 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Close Rate_of__t__choices Module Global_emissions Title: Global Emissions Author: Hadi Date: Mon, May 26, 1997 9:10 AM Nodelocation: 208,208 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,276,107,472,338,17 Nodecolor: 19661,-17200,-1 Constant A7_5_gt_carbon Title: 7.5 GT Carbon Definition: 7.5 Nodelocation: 128,80 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant A6_5_gt_carbon Title: 6.5 GT Carbon Definition: 6.5 Nodelocation: 128,48 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant A5_5_gt_carbon Title: 5.5 GT Carbon Definition: 5.5 Nodelocation: 128,16 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Variable Global_emission_lim1 Title: Global Emission Limits Definition: (If (A2_world_em__limit_=Slice(Ge_choice,Ge_choice,1)) The~~ n A5_5_gt_carbon Else (If (A2_world_em__limit_=Slice(Ge_choice,Ge_cho~~ ice,2)) Then A6_5_gt_carbon Else (If (A2_world_em__limit_=Slice(Ge_ch~~ oice,Ge_choice,3)) Then A7_5_gt_carbon Else (If (A2_world_em__limit_=~~ Slice(Ge_choice,Ge_choice,4)) Then Is92_a Else (If (A2_world_em__limi~~ t_=Slice(Ge_choice,Ge_choice,5)) Then Is92_b Else (If (A2_world_em__l~~ imit_=Slice(Ge_choice,Ge_choice,6)) Then Is92_c Else (If (A2_world_em~~ __limit_=Slice(Ge_choice,Ge_choice,7)) Then Is92_d Else (If (A2_world~~ _em__limit_=Slice(Ge_choice,Ge_choice,8)) Then Is92_e Else (If (A2_wo~~ rld_em__limit_=Slice(Ge_choice,Ge_choice,9)) Then Is92_f Else Users_c~~ hoice1))))))))) Nodelocation: 256,88 Nodesize: 56,40 Windstate: 1,168,178 Defnstate: 1,286,130,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Index Ge_choice Title: GE Choice Description: ['5.5 GTC','6.5 GTC','7.5 GTC','IS92-A','IS92-B','IS92-C'~~ ,'IS92-D','IS92-E','IS92-F','User's Choice'] Definition: ['5.5 GTC','6.5 GTC','7.5 GTC','IS92-A','IS92-B','IS92-C',~~ 'IS92-D','IS92-E','IS92-F','User defined'] Nodelocation: 256,152 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,277,360 Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Constant Is92_a Title: IS92-A Definition: Table(Time)(~ 10,10,10,10,10,~ 7.0, 7.7, 8.4, 9.2, 9.9, 10.7, 11.2, 11.7, 12.2, 12.7, 13.2~~ , 13.7, 14.2, 14.6, 15.1, 15.6, 16.4, 17.2, 18.1, 18.9, 19.~~ 8 ) Nodelocation: 128,112 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,104,301,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant Is92_b Title: IS92-B Definition: Table(Time)(~ 10,10,10,10,10,~ 6.8, 7.4, 8.0, 8.7, 9.5, 10.3, 10.7, 11.2, 11.6, 12.1, 12.5~~ , 13.0, 13.4, 13.8, 14.2, 14.7, 15.5, 16.2, 17.0, 17.8, 18.~~ 6 ) Nodelocation: 128,144 Nodesize: 60,16 Defnstate: 1,104,301,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant Is92_c Title: IS92-C Definition: Table(Time)(~ 10,10,10,10,10,~ 6.0, 6.3, 6.7, 6.9, 7.1, 7.4, 7.2, 7.0, 6.9, 6.7, 6.5, 6.3~~ , 6.0, 5.8, 5.5, 5.3, 5.1, 5.0, 4.8, 4.7, 4.6 ) Nodelocation: 128,176 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,104,301,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant Is92_d Title: IS92-D Definition: Table(Time)(~ 10,10,10,10,10,~ 6.4, 6.9, 7.3, 7.8, 8.1, 8.6, 8.5, 8.5, 8.5, 8.4, 8.4, 8.5~~ , 8.5, 8.6, 8.7, 8.8, 9.0, 9.2, 9.4, 9.7, 9.9 ) Nodelocation: 128,208 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,104,301,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant Is92_e Title: IS92-E Definition: Table(Time)(~ 10,10,10,10,10,~ 7.6, 8.7, 9.9, 11.1, 12.2, 13.5, 14.5, 15.5, 16.6, 17.6, 18~~ .6, 20.1, 21.6, 23.0, 24.5, 25.9, 27.7, 29.5, 31.3, 33.1, 3~~ 4.9 ) Nodelocation: 128,240 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,104,301,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant Is92_f Title: IS92-F Definition: Table(Time)(~ 10,10,10,10,10,~ 7.3, 8.2, 9.2, 10.3, 11.5, 12.6, 13.2, 13.9, 14.5, 15.1, 15~~ .8, 16.6, 17.5, 18.4, 19.3, 20.2, 21.3, 22.4, 23.6, 24.7, 2~~ 5.9 ) Nodelocation: 128,272 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,104,301,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant Users_choice1 Title: Users Choice Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 256,264 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Users_choice3 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Close Global_emissions Module Regional_emissions Title: Regional Emissions Author: Hadi Date: Mon, May 26, 1997 9:10 AM Nodelocation: 208,264 Nodesize: 52,24 Diagstate: 1,143,226,517,333,17 Variable Target_table Title: TARGET TABLE:~ Prescribed Regional Emissions Units: GTC/Yr Description: This is the objective value for regional CO2 emissions. ~~ It is used as a target for the derivative control of the system usin~~ g the carbon tax instrument, which is revised at each time period for~~ each regional target. Definition: If (A3_regonal_em__limit=Slice(Re_choice,Re_choice,1)) The~~ n A1990_emissions ~ Else ~ If (A3_regonal_em__limit=Slice(Re_choice,Re_choice,2)) Then Kyoto~ Else ~ If (A3_regonal_em__limit=Slice(Re_choice,Re_choice,3)) Then A10__belo~~ w_1990_for_ ~ Else ~ If (A3_regonal_em__limit=Slice(Re_choice,Re_choice,4)) Then A25__belo~~ w_1990_for_ ~ Else ~ If (A3_regonal_em__limit=Slice(Re_choice,Re_choice,5)) Then Annex_1_2~~ 5__below_19 ~ Else ~ If (A3_regonal_em__limit=Slice(Re_choice,Re_choice,6)) Then Annex_1_1~~ 0__below_19 ~ Else ~ If (A3_regonal_em__limit=Slice(Re_choice,Re_choice,7)) Then Annex_1_2~~ 5__below_1 ~ Else ~ If (A3_regonal_em__limit=Slice(Re_choice,Re_choice,8)) Then Annex_1_5~~ 0__below_1 ~ Else ~ Users_choice2 Nodelocation: 248,88 Nodesize: 64,36 Windstate: 1,61,118 Defnstate: 1,58,110,650,331,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,84,161,526,414,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:2~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformdef: [Time,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Undefined] Variable A25__below_1990_for_ Title: 25% Below 1990 for All Definition: 0.75*A1990_emissions Nodelocation: 96,120 Nodesize: 64,20 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,292,343,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Variable A10__below_1990_for_ Title: 10% Below 1990 for All Definition: .9*A1990_emissions Nodelocation: 96,80 Nodesize: 64,20 Windstate: 1,263,290 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,64,156,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant A1990_emissions Title: 1990 Emissions Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 1.372,0.258,0.9337,0.8735,0.6418,0.3428,0.1671,0.3594,0.7798,0.2056,0~~ .08271,0.295) Nodelocation: 96,40 Nodesize: 64,16 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Index Re_choice Title: RE Choice Description: This is a list of canned regional emissiosn targets avail~~ able to the user to specify.~ ['1990 Emissions','Kyoto Accord','10% Reduction','25% Reduction','Ann~~ ex 1 10% Reduction, ROW 25% Increase','Annex 1 25% Reduction, ROW 25%~~ Increase','Annex 1 25% Reduction, ROW 50% Increase','Annex 1 50% Red~~ uction, ROW 50% Increase','User's Choice'] Definition: ['1990 Emissions','Kyoto Accord','10% Reduction','25% Redu~~ ction','Annex 1 10% Reduction, ROW 25% Increase','Annex 1 25% Reducti~~ on, ROW 25% Increase','Annex 1 25% Reduction, ROW 50% Increase','Anne~~ x 1 50% Reduction, ROW 50% Increase','User defined'] Nodelocation: 240,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,423,125 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Variable Annex_1_10__below_19 Title: Annex 1 10% Below 1990 Rest 25% Above Definition: A1990_emissions*(0.9*annex1+1.25*non_annex1) Nodelocation: 392,32 Nodesize: 64,24 Windstate: 1,240,293 Defnstate: 1,371,48,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Variable Annex_1_25__below_19 Title: Annex 1 25% Below 1990 Rest 25% Above Definition: A1990_emissions*(0.75*annex1+1.25*non_annex1) Nodelocation: 392,96 Nodesize: 64,28 Defnstate: 1,352,76,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Variable Annex_1_25__below_1 Title: Annex 1 25% Below 1990 Rest 50% Above Definition: A1990_emissions*(0.75*annex1+1.5*non_annex1) Nodelocation: 392,160 Nodesize: 64,24 Defnstate: 1,321,317,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Constant Users_choice2 Title: Users Choice Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0) Nodelocation: 96,168 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,175,123,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Users_choice4 Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Variable Annex1 Title: Annex 1 Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1) Nodelocation: 280,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable Non_annex1 Title: Non Annex 1 Definition: 1-Annex1 Nodelocation: 184,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,0,MIDM Variable Annex_1_50__below_1 Title: Annex 1 50% Below 1990 Rest 50% Above Definition: if time < 2025 then A1990_emissions*(0.75*annex1+1.5*non_a~~ nnex1) else ~ if time < 2030 then~ A1990_emissions*(0.65*annex1+1.5*non_annex1) else~ if time < 2035 then~ A1990_emissions*(0.60*annex1+1.5*non_annex1) else~ if time < 2040 then~ A1990_emissions*(0.55*annex1+1.5*non_annex1) else~ A1990_emissions*(0.50*annex1+1.5*non_annex1) Nodelocation: 392,224 Nodesize: 64,28 Defnstate: 1,321,317,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Action_index,Regions_12] Variable Kyoto Title: Kyoto Agreement 1997 Definition: if time >= 2010 then A1990_emissions*kyoto_pledge else A19~~ 90_emissions Nodelocation: 224,224 Nodesize: 64,28 Defnstate: 1,321,317,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,102,159,560,432,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Reformdef: [Action_index,Regions_12] Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Constant Kyoto_pledge Title: Kyoto Pledge Definition: Table(Regions_12)(~ 0.93,0,0.92,0.92,1,0,0,0,0,0,1.06,0.94) Nodelocation: 72,224 Nodesize: 52,20 Close Regional_emissions Module Control1 Title: Control Author: Hadi Date: Mon, May 26, 1997 9:10 AM Nodelocation: 208,40 Nodesize: 52,24 Decision Intervention Title: Intervention Description: This is the carbon tax index. Definition: ['No Abatement','Abate in 2000','Abate in 2025'] Nodelocation: 160,32 Nodesize: 52,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Windstate: 1,94,95 Nodecolor: 19661,-22937,-1 Numberformat: 1,%,4,2,0,0 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['No Abatement','Abate in 2000','Abate in ~~ 2025']} Decision If_exploring_timing_ Title: If exploring Timing of Policy: ~ TIMING of INTERVENTION Definition: Table(Intervention)(~ 2200,2000,2025) Nodelocation: 160,104 Nodesize: 64,36 Decision Objective2 Title: Objective Definition: Table(Objective1)(~ 'Fill TAX_Table',0,'Fill TARGET_Table',550,2,'No input needed',0) Nodelocation: 160,184 Nodesize: 44,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,27,320 Defnstate: 1,184,87,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -13108,-13108,0 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Reformval: [Time,Objective1] Close Control1 Formnode User_s_choice4 Title: User's choice Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 352,96 Nodesize: 96,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: 1,-13109,-26215 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: User_s_choice Formnode User_s_choice5 Title: User's Choice Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 352,376 Nodesize: 96,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: 1,-13109,-26215 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: User_s_choice1 Formnode User_s_choice6 Title: User's Choice Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 352,320 Nodesize: 96,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: 1,-13109,-26215 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: User_s_choice2 Formnode User_s_choice7 Title: User's Choice Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 352,432 Nodesize: 96,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: 1,-13109,-26215 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: User_s_choice3 Formnode Users_choice3 Title: Users Choice Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 352,208 Nodesize: 96,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: 1,-13109,-26215 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Users_choice1 Formnode Users_choice4 Title: Users Choice Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 352,264 Nodesize: 96,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: 1,-13109,-26215 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Users_choice2 Module Policy_revisions Title: Policy Revisions Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, Aug 2, 1998 4:34 PM Nodelocation: 208,496 Nodesize: 56,28 Diagstate: 1,99,91,711,263,17 Nodecolor: 1,32767,-13109 Index Revisions Title: Revisions Definition: ['Maggie Thatcher in Charge - no policy change','Impacts ~~ are too large - policy is beefed up','Policy is too costly to follow'~~ ,'Impacts and costs can both change policy'] Nodelocation: 152,152 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,51,381 Decision Are_policy_revisions Title: Are Policy Revisions Allowed? Definition: Choice(Revisions,1) Nodelocation: 312,112 Nodesize: 248,16 Windstate: 1,236,242 Aliases: Formnode Are_policy_revision1 Close Policy_revisions Close Input_choice_details Formnode Control_paradigm1 Title: CONTROL~ PARADIGM Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 296,184,0 Nodesize: 284,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: How_is_the_climate_p Formnode Choose_a_tax_regime1 Title: Choose A Tax Regime Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 160,216 Nodesize: 144,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -26211,-1,-26215 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: A1_tax_level_ Formnode Distribute_the_burd1 Title: Distribute the Burden Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 296,296 Nodesize: 284,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: Distribute_the_burde Formnode Pick_a_global_tempe1 Title: Pick A Global Temperature Change Limit Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 440,240 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: 65535,19661,38773 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: A5_global__t_limit_ Formnode Pick_co2_concentrat1 Title: Pick CO2 Concentration Limit Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 440,216 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: A4_co2_conc__limit_ Formnode Pick_a_global_emiss1 Title: Pick A Global Emission Limit Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 160,240 Nodesize: 144,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: 45875,45875,45875 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: A2_world_em__limit_ Formnode Pick_regional_emiss1 Title: Pick Regional Emission Limits Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 160,264 Nodesize: 144,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -26215,-18222,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: A3_regonal_em__limit Formnode Pick_a_rate_of__t1 Title: Pick A Rate of ±T Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 440,264 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-6554,-26215 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: A6_rate_of__t_ Text Te33 Description: ~ The ICAM model can be used to explore the outcome for specific climat~~ e policy strategies. ~ i) a - choose from the seven simulation modes below. ~ b - set a target level from the appropriately numbered nodes~~ . ~ ii) specify how the burden of abatement is to be disributed.~ iii) specify if under extreme circumstances the policy target can be~~ revised.~ ~ If you would like more detail on how to manipulate these settings and~~ what you can hope to gain please click the information box on the ri~~ ght > Nodelocation: 248,80,-1 Nodesize: 228,84 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: 52427,63897,65535 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Module Some_ideas_on_how_to Title: Some Ideas on How to setup and use ICAM Simulations Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Sun, Aug 2, 1998 4:34 PM Nodelocation: 528,88 Nodesize: 52,60 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,0,1,0,,1, Diagstate: 1,188,64,597,521,17 Nodecolor: -1,-19663,-26215 Text Te29 Description: ~ _______________OK I HAVE GOT THIS FAR WHAT DO I DO NOW?_____________~~ ~ ~ ICAM is a flexible simulation platform. Here are some hints on how t~~ o use it to its full capability.~ ~ ¥ SEVEN SIMULATION MODES TO CHOOSE FROM:~ First you need to choose from the seven simulation modes below. ~ 1) In this mode, the user specifies carbon taxes through time and~~ uses the model to explore the~ range of outcomes for a given model structure. ~ In modes 2-7, the model uses one or more behaviourally realistic arti~~ ficial agents to simulate the difficulty of detecting environmental a~~ nd economic trends, coping with the dynamics of the economic and envi~~ ronmental systems and implementing policies to realize their policy t~~ argets.~ 2) The agent is given a global CO2 emission target. ~ 3) Twelve agents (one from each region in the model) are given CO~~ 2 emission targets. ~ 4) The agent is given a global CO2 concentration target.~ 5) The agent is given a global ±T temperature target.~ 6) The agent is given climate change & rate thresholds (e.g., ±T²~~ 2°C; d(±T)/dt ² 0.02 °C/y).~ 7) The agent is set the unenviable task of choosing a policy maxi~~ mizing discounted utility.~ ~ ¥ SET THE TARGET FOR CLIMATE POLICY~ Once the form of the climate policy has been specified, the target le~~ vel for the policy needs to be selected from the appropriately number~~ ed node. So, if you pick simulation mode '2- global emissions target~~ s' you should set a global emissions target from the input node labe~~ led '2- World Em. limit?' ~ ~ ¥ EXPLORE THE INCIDENCE OF MITIGATION COSTS ON DIFFERENT REGIONS~ Once of the most contentious aspects of climate policy is who should ~~ bear the costs of CO2 control. It is acknowledged that industrialize~~ d nations bear the lion's share of responsibility of the increased co~~ ncentration of CO2 in the atmosphere since the dawn of industrial rev~~ olution. Now, therefore, the remaining nations of the world would li~~ ke to grow their economies unhindered by CO2 control costs, in order ~~ to achieve the level of prosperity enjoyed by the industrialized nati~~ ons. There are two ways of exploring this type of question in ICAM. ~~ The user can specify different regional limits on emissions by choos~~ ing option 2 above. Or the user can design a scheme in which the sha~~ dow price of carbon varies by region.~ ~ ¥ EXPLORE THE STABILITY OF POLICY~ More often than not, explorations of climate policy are conducted wit~~ hout due consideration of conditions that may make the pursuit of the~~ policy unlikely. From the perspective of the public the most visibl~~ e faces of climate change will be extreme events, and impacts of clim~~ ate policy on welfare. If the cost of the policy rises to extreme le~~ vels or climate extremes are experienced, would the public not questi~~ on the wisdom and efficacy of the current policy? The user can allow~~ these events to change the policy parameters. Too high a cost of po~~ licy control in a given region? The user can allow this region to dr~~ op out of the climate accord. Too high a cost of climate impact? Th~~ e user can allow a global accord tightening the climate policy target~~ . It is instructive to allow this flexibility and learn the probabil~~ ity a given policy is likely to be abandoned, or study the conditions~~ under which the policy is revised.~ ~ ¥ EXPLORE THE ROBUSTNESS OF INSIGHTS WITH DIFFEERNT MODEL STRUCTURES~ ICAM permits specification of different model structures. The user i~~ s given ready access to the demographic, energy, and financial module~~ s and invited to pick their version of the world from the menus†. Ot~~ her modules can also be tinkered with, but do this after you have gai~~ ned confidence with the Analytica environment, and the ICAM model.~ ~ ___________~ † Do not forget that choosing the IPCC scenarios limits the available~~ model variations. The IPCC scenarios are replicated in the median c~~ ase of the parameter ranges and only permit tinkering with the financ~~ ial module settings. ~ Nodelocation: 288,520 Nodesize: 272,508 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -13109,-1,-1 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Close Some_ideas_on_how_to Formnode Are_policy_revision1 Title: Are Policy Revisions Allowed? Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 296,336 Nodesize: 284,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: Are_policy_revisions Close Ii__specify_the_clim Close Inputs2 Module Outputs2 Title: Outputs Author: Hadi Date: Fri, May 16, 1997 10:29 AM Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 344,376,0 Nodesize: 80,24 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,419,75,576,384,17 Nodecolor: 19661,-17200,-1 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 18 Module Saved_illustrative_r Title: Saved Illustrative Results and Other Outputs. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Nov 6, 1994 2:41 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 296,328,1 Nodesize: 308,32 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,258,211,457,312,1 Nodecolor: 19661,-17200,-1 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 14 Module Saved_illustrative_1 Title: Saved Illustrative Results Author: Hadi Date: Mon, May 26, 1997 11:40 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 224,48 Nodesize: 300,80 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,216,119,455,319,17 Nodecolor: -1,-4,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 18 Close Saved_illustrative_1 Module Other_details Title: Other Details Author: Hadi Date: Wed, May 28, 1997 9:31 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 224,208 Nodesize: 300,80 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Diagstate: 1,232,242,596,303,17 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 18 Module Sensitivit3 Title: Sensitivity Analysis Module Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Jun 9, 1994 4:50 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 296,112 Nodesize: 92,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,73,55,660,667,1 Module Aerosol_se Title: AEROSOL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Fri, Jan 13, 1995 9:15 AM Nodelocation: 552,288 Nodesize: 84,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Arial, 12 Chance Sdir_sky_c Title: D_Sens OC_BC Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 136,56 Nodesize: 56,24 Chance Sdir_sky_s Title: D_Sens_SO4 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 136,56 Nodesize: 56,24 Chance Swf_sens_t Title: SWF sens to Sky OC/BC Formulation Definition: dydx(Change_in_7, Sdir_sky_c)/change_in_7 Nodelocation: 136,56 Nodesize: 72,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,1,MIDM Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Swf_sens_t1 Title: SWF sens to Sky S Formulation Definition: dydx(Change_in_7, Sdir_sky_s) Nodelocation: 136,128 Nodesize: 72,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Close Aerosol_se Chance Back_stop_cost Title: GDP-Back Stop Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Bs_p_sens) Nodelocation: 416,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Pop_sens Title: Population~ Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 54,56 Nodesize: 58,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Growth_sens Title: Growth Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 56,96 Nodesize: 56,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Effic_sens Title: Efficiency Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 54,136 Nodesize: 58,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance C_sens Title: C-Cyle Sensitivity Description: 1 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,408 Nodesize: 56,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Lw_sens Title: LW Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,488 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Sw_sens Title: SW Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,448 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Cl_resp_sens Title: Climate Response Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,328 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Cl_tau_sens Title: Climate Lag Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,368 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance M_power_sens Title: Market Power Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 56,208 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance M_tau_sens Title: Market Adaptation Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 56,248 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Nm_tau_sens Title: Non-market Adaptation Rate Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 56,416 Nodesize: 60,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Nm_power_sens Title: Non-market Power Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 56,376 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Bs_p_sens Title: Back Stop Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,96 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Energy_ex_sens Title: Energy Ex DWL Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,136 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Tax_loss_sens Title: Tax Loss Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,56 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Tax_loss Title: Tax Loss Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Tax_loss_sens) Nodelocation: 416,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Energy_exp1 Title: Energy Expenditures Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Energy_ex_sens) Nodelocation: 416,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Productivity_s Title: Productivity Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Growth_sens) Nodelocation: 168,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,136,147,657,297,0,MIDM Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Chance Population_s Title: Population Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Pop_sens) Nodelocation: 168,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Chance Energy_efficiency Title: Energy Efficiency Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Effic_sens) Nodelocation: 168,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Market_power Title: Market Power Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,M_power_sens) Nodelocation: 168,208 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Market_adjustment Title: Market Adjustment Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,M_tau_sens) Nodelocation: 168,248 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Nonmarket_power Title: Non-market Power Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Nm_power_sens) Nodelocation: 168,376 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Nonmarket_adjustment Title: Non-market Adjustment Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Nm_tau_sens) Nodelocation: 168,416 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Climate_re Title: Climate Response Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Cl_resp_sens) Nodelocation: 416,328 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Climate_la Title: Climate Lag Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Cl_tau_sens) Nodelocation: 416,368 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Carbon_cyc1 Title: Carbon cycle Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,C_sens) Nodelocation: 416,408 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Short_wave Title: Short wave forcing Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Sw_sens) Nodelocation: 416,448 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Long_wave_ Title: Long wave forcing Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Lw_sens) Nodelocation: 416,488 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Variable Sensitivit2 Title: Parameter Sensitivity Table Definition: Table(Input_i)(~ Population_s,Productivity_s,Energy_efficiency,Tax_loss,Energy_exp1,Ba~~ ck_stop_cost,Coal_rent_,Energy_ela,Interfuel_2,Market_lev,Market_powe~~ r,Market_adjustment,Nonmarket_amp,Nonmarket_power,Nonmarket_adjustmen~~ t,Climate_re,Climate_la,Carbon_cyc1,Long_wave_,Short_wave,Dicsount_r)~~ Nodelocation: 184,544 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,327,159 Defnstate: 1,208,55,406,393,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,51,80,488,306,0,MIDM Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Reformval: [Intervention,Input_i] Chance Dicsount_r Title: Dicsount rate Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Disc_sens) Nodelocation: 416,552 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Index Input_i Title: Input parameter Index Description: Index for sensitivity and uncertainty tables. Definition: ['Population Growth','Economic Growth','Energy Efficiency'~~ ,'Tax Loss','Energy Expenditure Loss','Back Stop Price','Coal Rent Ex~~ traction','Price Elasticity of Energy','Interfuel Substitution Rate',~~ 'Amplitude of Market Impacts','Power of Market Impacts','Adaptation t~~ o Market Impacts','Amplitude of N-Market Impacts','Power of N-Market ~~ Impacts','Adaptation to N-Market Impacts','Climate Sensitivity','Clim~~ ate Lag','Carbon Cycle','GHG Forcing','Aerosol Forcing','Discount Rat~~ e'] Nodelocation: 376,632 Nodesize: 56,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Windstate: 1,168,178 Valuestate: 1,72,41,477,351,0,MIDM Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Population Growth','Economic Growth','En~~ ergy Efficiency','Tax Loss','Energy Expenditure Loss','Back Stop Pri~~ ce','Coal Rent Extraction','Price Elasticity of Energy','Interfuel Su~~ bstitution Rate','Amplitude of Market Impacts','Power of Market Impac~~ ts','Adaptation to Market Impacts','Amplitude of N-Market Impacts','P~~ ower of N-Market Impacts','Adaptation to N-Market Impacts','Climate S~~ ensitivity','Climate Lag','Carbon Cycle','GHG Forcing','Aerosol Forci~~ ng','Discount Rate']} Chance Coal_rent_sens Title: Coal Rent Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,176 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Fuel_sub_sens Title: Fuel Substitution Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,216 Nodesize: 56,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Coal_rent_ Title: Coal Rent Sensitivity Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Coal_rent_sens) Nodelocation: 416,176 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Nm_amp_sens Title: Non-market Impact Amplitude Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 56,456 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance M_imp_sens Title: Market Impact Level Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 56,288 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Market_lev Title: Market Level Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,M_imp_sens) Nodelocation: 168,288 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Nonmarket_amp Title: Non-market Amplitude Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Nm_amp_sens) Nodelocation: 168,456 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Interfuel_2 Title: Interfuel Substitution Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Fuel_sub_sens) Nodelocation: 416,216 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Disc_sens Title: Discount Rate Sensitivity Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,552 Nodesize: 56,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Objective Normalized Title: Normalized Sensitivities Definition: (Sensitivit2/Utility_pc_disc_) Nodelocation: 184,624 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Valuestate: 1,1,67,800,519,0,MIDM Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Reformval: [Regions_12,Input_i] Numberformat: 1,F,2,3,1,0 Chance Price_elas Title: Price Elasticity of Eenrgy Demand Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 304,256 Nodesize: 56,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Chance Energy_ela Title: Energy Elasticity Definition: Dydx(OUTPUT1,Price_elas) Nodelocation: 416,256 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Determ Output1 Title: OUTPUT Definition: Utility_pc_disc_ Nodelocation: 232,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Close Sensitivit3 Module Value_of_information Title: Value of Information & Hedging Strategies Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Nov 16, 1995 4:04 PM Nodelocation: 296,176 Nodesize: 92,28 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,280,290,442,225,1 Alias Al5 Title: Net Discounted Utility of Tax Policy Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 72,152 Nodesize: 60,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Nodecolor: -16568,19844,-1 Original: Discounted_global_u1 Alias Al6 Title: Cumulative Carbon Tax Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 368,152 Nodesize: 56,20 Original: Carbon_tax Determ Information Title: Information Description: This toggle switch controls the benefits considered when ~~ making decisions. The choice is to only consider market impacts or b~~ oth market and non-market impacts. The toggle switch also controls t~~ he benefits reported in the matrix of data for EMF-14. Definition: Choice(Info_in,1) Nodelocation: 216,136 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 9 Determ Climate_se Title: Climate Sens Description: This toggle switch controls the benefits considered when ~~ making decisions. The choice is to only consider market impacts or b~~ oth market and non-market impacts. The toggle switch also controls t~~ he benefits reported in the matrix of data for EMF-14. Definition: Choice(Dist_in,2) Nodelocation: 64,88 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 9 Chance Vulnerabil Title: Vulnerability Modifier Description: This is the modifier to vulnerability it influences both ~~ market and non-market impacts of climate change.~ The distribution is Lognormal(2.8, 2.455) Definition: (Ifonly (Impact_vul='Low') Then 0.803 Else (Ifonly (Impact~~ _vul='High') Then 4.85 Else 1)) Nodelocation: 280,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -30539,-18689,-31259 Chance Sensitivitymodifier Title: Sensitivity Modifier Description: Distribution for this parameter is Normal(2.8, 1.4). Whe~~ n Normalized it is: D/1.4 - 2. Definition: (If (Climate_se='Low') Then 0.943 Else (If (Climate_se='Hi~~ gh') Then 2.057 Else 1)) Nodelocation: 152,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -25835,-12545,-13559 Chance Uncertain_v Title: Uncertain Vulnerability Definition: Lognormal(2.8, 2.455)/ 4.2731e+0 Nodelocation: 368,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,248,258,416,303,0,STAT Nodecolor: -30539,-18689,-31259 Chance Uncertain_s Title: Uncertain Sensitivity Definition: Normal(2.8,1.4)/2.8 Nodelocation: 72,24 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,1,PDFP Nodecolor: -25835,-12545,-13559 Determ Impact_vul Title: Impact Vulnerability Description: This toggle switch controls the benefits considered when ~~ making decisions. The choice is to only consider market impacts or b~~ oth market and non-market impacts. The toggle switch also controls t~~ he benefits reported in the matrix of data for EMF-14. Definition: Choice(Dist_in,2) Nodelocation: 360,88 Nodesize: 56,20 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 9 Close Value_of_information Module Emf Title: EMF Author: Hadi Date: Sun, Nov 17, 1996 23:54 Nodelocation: 472,80 Nodesize: 76,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,40,50,390,323,17 Chance Regional_emf Title: RAW EMF OUTPUT Description: This is one of the tables to be used to produce the outpu~~ t form for EMF-14 Definition: Table(Outputs1)(~ Regional_coal,Regional_fossil,Regional_tpe,Regional_carbon,Regional_s~~ ulfur,Co2,Ch4,T,Un_slr_fro,Emf_gnp,Impacts3,Policy,Tax1,Un_land_lo) Nodelocation: 184,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,2,40 Defnstate: 1,308,37,328,410,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,-5,44,824,564,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Index Outputs1 Title: Outputs Description: This is the index of output that we are doing for the EMF~~ -14 exercise. Definition: ['Coal','Fossil Fuels','Total Primary Energy','Total Carbo~~ n Emissions','Total Sulfur Emissions','CO2 Concentration','CH4 Concen~~ tration','±T wrt to 1990','Sea Level Rise wrt 1990','GNP','Climate Im~~ pacts','Control Costs','Carbon Tax','Area lost to SLR'] Nodelocation: 56,40 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,315,101 Valuestate: 1,120,130,396,387,0,MIDM {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Coal','Fossil Fuels','Total Primary Ene~~ rgy','Total Carbon Emissions','Total Sulfur Emissions','CO2 Concentra~~ tion','CH4 Concentration','±T wrt to 1990','Sea Level Rise wrt 1990',~~ 'GNP','Climate Impacts','Control Costs','Carbon Tax','Area lost to SL~~ R']} Index Regions_in_icam_2___ Title: Regions in ICAM 2 + World Description: The different regions asked for by EMF require different ~~ calculations. Definition: ['OECD','EE & FSU','China','Middle East','Africa','Latin A~~ merica','India & SE Asia','World'] Nodelocation: 56,104 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,136,146 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['OECD','EE & FSU','China','Middle East','~~ Africa','Latin America','India & SE Asia','World']} Chance Regionalsummary Title: Regional Groups Definition: Table(Regions_in_icam_2___)(~ Slice(Regional_emf,Regions_12,1),Slice(Regional_emf,Regions_12,2),Sli~~ ce(Regional_emf,Regions_12,3),Slice(Regional_emf,Regions_12,4),Slice(~~ Regional_emf,Regions_12,5),Slice(Regional_emf,Regions_12,6),Slice(Reg~~ ional_emf,Regions_12,7),World_emf) Nodelocation: 184,136 Nodesize: 44,20 Defnstate: 1,89,87,508,302,0,MIDM Objective Summary_output_table Title: SUMMARY~ OUTPUT Table Definition: Regionalsummary Nodelocation: 184,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,49,69,705,361,0,CONF Graphsetup: Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:0~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:500~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:11~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Reformval: [Year,Probindex] Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0 Index Year Title: Year Description: EMF time=sequence(1990, 2100, 10) Definition: [1990, 2025, 2050, 2100] Nodelocation: 56,160 Nodesize: 44,20 Module Inputs1 Title: INPUTS Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Mon, Jan 15, 1996 9:28 AM Nodelocation: 184,24 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,73,74,478,372,1 Chance Regional_tpe Title: Regional TPE Definition: Slice(Tpe2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Regional_fossil Title: Regional Fossil Definition: Slice(Fossil2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Regional_coal Title: Regional Coal Definition: Slice(Coal2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Regional_carbon Title: Regional Carbon Definition: Slice(Carbon2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,152 Nodesize: 44,20 Objective Costs_of_policy Title: Costs of Policy Definition: Dynamic(((Dead_weight_tax+Dead_weight_energy)-Slice((Dead_~~ weight_tax+Dead_weight_energy),Intervention,1)),((Dead_weight_tax+Dea~~ d_weight_energy)-Slice((Dead_weight_tax+Dead_weight_energy),Intervent~~ ion,1))) Nodelocation: 72,588 Nodesize: 52,20 Alias Al7 Title: CO2 IN PPBV Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 72,672 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: A_co2 Alias Al8 Title: CH4 in PPBV Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 72,712 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: A_ch4 Alias Al10 Title: Regional ±T From 1990 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 72,432 Nodesize: 56,20 Original: Regional_t_1990 Alias Al11 Title: Global Av T Since 1990 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 72,472 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Global_av Alias Al13 Title: UN SLR Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 64,240 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Un_slr Alias Al14 Title: GNP Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 72,512 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Economic_activity_by Alias Al9 Title: Combined Regional Impacts Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 72,552 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Monitized_impacts Alias Al15 Title: Cumulative Carbon Tax Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 72,632 Nodesize: 52,20 Original: Carbon_tax Chance Regional_l1 Title: Regional land lost to SLR Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Regional_slr_on_land,Protect,2),Slice(Region~~ al_slr_on_land,Protect,2)) Nodelocation: 64,336 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,323,376 Chance Slr_in_199 Title: SLR in 1990 Definition: dynamic(0,0,0, slice(un_slr, time,4 ), Slr_in_199[time-1])~~ Nodelocation: 64,288 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,615,322,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Un_slr_fro Title: UN SLR from 1990 Definition: Slice(Slr2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,272 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Land_lost_ Title: Land lost in 1990 Definition: dynamic(0,0,0, slice(Regional_l1,time ,4), land_lost_[time~~ -1]) Nodelocation: 64,384 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Un_land_lo Title: UN land lost from 1990 Definition: Slice(Land2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,360 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Coal Title: coal Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Fuel_use_by_region,Fuels,3),Slice(Fuel_use_b~~ y_region,Fuels,3)) Nodelocation: 48,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Fossil Title: fossil Definition: Dynamic(((Slice(Fuel_use_by_region,Fuels,1)+Slice(Fuel_use~~ _by_region,Fuels,2))+Slice(Fuel_use_by_region,Fuels,3)),((Slice(Fuel_~~ use_by_region,Fuels,1)+Slice(Fuel_use_by_region,Fuels,2))+Slice(Fuel_~~ use_by_region,Fuels,3))) Nodelocation: 48,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Carbon1 Title: carbon Definition: Dynamic(Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*Carbon_content3),Fuels),Su~~ m((Fuel_use_by_region*Carbon_content3),Fuels)) Nodelocation: 48,152 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,104,114 Chance Sulfur Title: sulfur Definition: Dynamic((Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*Fuel_sulfu),Fuels)*(1-sul~~ fur_control2)),(Sum((Fuel_use_by_region*Fuel_sulfu),Fuels)*(1-sulfur_~~ control2))) Nodelocation: 48,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,294,380 Valuestate: 1,264,274,416,303,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Regions_12] Chance Slr Title: slr Definition: dynamic(( Un_slr- Slr_in_199 ), ( Un_slr- Slr_in_199 )) Nodelocation: 168,272 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Land Title: land Definition: dynamic((Regional_l1-land_lost_), (Regional_l1-land_lost_)~~ ) Nodelocation: 160,360 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T Title: T Definition: Slice(T22,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,432 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,56,67,528,299,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance World_t Title: World T Definition: Slice(Avt2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,472 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Time,Run] Chance Emf_gnp Title: emf_gnp Definition: Slice(Gnp2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,512 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Impacts3 Title: impacts Definition: Slice(Impacts4,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,552 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Policy Title: Policy Definition: Slice(Policy4,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,592 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Tax1 Title: tax Definition: Slice(Ctax2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,632 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Co2 Title: CO2 Definition: Slice(Co22,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,672 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Ch4 Title: CH4 Definition: Slice(Ch42,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,712 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Slr_av Title: Slr_av Definition: Slice(Avslr2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,752 Nodesize: 44,20 Valuestate: 1,216,226,416,303,1,STAT Reformval: [Year,Statslabels] Chance Coal2 Title: coal2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Coal,Intervention,Policy_slice),Slice(Coal,I~~ ntervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 160,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Fossil2 Title: fossil2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Fossil,Intervention,Policy_slice),Slice(Foss~~ il,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 160,72 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Tpe2 Title: tpe2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Tpe,Intervention,Policy_slice),Slice(Tpe,Int~~ ervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 160,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Carbon2 Title: Carbon2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Carbon1,Intervention,Policy_slice),Slice(Car~~ bon1,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 160,152 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Sulfur2 Title: sulfur2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Sulfur,Intervention,Policy_slice),Slice(Sulf~~ ur,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 160,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Regional_sulfur Title: Regional Sulfur Definition: Slice(Sulfur2,Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 392,192 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Slr2 Title: slr2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Slr,Intervention,Policy_slice),Slice(Slr,Int~~ ervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 272,272 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Land2 Title: land2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Land,Intervention,Policy_slice),Slice(Land,I~~ ntervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 272,360 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance T22 Title: T2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Regional_t_1990,Intervention,Policy_slice),S~~ lice(Regional_t_1990,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 216,432 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Avt2 Title: avT2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Global_av,Intervention,Policy_slice),Slice(G~~ lobal_av,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 216,472 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Gnp2 Title: gnp2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Economic_activity_by,Intervention,Policy_sli~~ ce),Slice(Economic_activity_by,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 216,512 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Impacts4 Title: impacts2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Monitized_impacts,Intervention,Policy_slice)~~ ,Slice(Monitized_impacts,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 216,552 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Policy4 Title: policy2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Costs_of_policy,Intervention,Policy_slice),S~~ lice(Costs_of_policy,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 216,592 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Ctax2 Title: ctax2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Carbon_tax,Intervention,Policy_slice),Slice(~~ Carbon_tax,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 216,632 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Co22 Title: co22 Definition: Dynamic((Slice(A_co2,Intervention,Policy_slice)/1000),(Sli~~ ce(A_co2,Intervention,Policy_slice)/1000)) Nodelocation: 216,672 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Ch42 Title: ch42 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(A_ch4,Intervention,Policy_slice),Slice(A_ch4~~ ,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 216,712 Nodesize: 44,20 Chance Avslr2 Title: avslr2 Definition: Dynamic(Slice(Av_sea_level_rise,Intervention,Policy_slice)~~ ,Slice(Av_sea_level_rise,Intervention,Policy_slice)) Nodelocation: 72,752 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,270,331 Alias Total_primary_energy Title: Total Primary Energy Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 48,112 Nodesize: 44,20 Original: Tpe Chance Policy_slice Title: Policy Slice Description: The first slice is no policy, the second slice is a rampe~~ d tax of, the third slice is designed to meet the Scenario Target. Definition: 3 Nodelocation: 224,336 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodecolor: -13107,-1,-26215 Close Inputs1 Chance World_emf Title: World Indicators Definition: Table(Outputs1)(~ Sum(Regional_coal,Regions_12),Sum(Regional_fossil,Regions_12),Sum(Reg~~ ional_tpe,Regions_12),Sum(Regional_carbon,Regions_12),Sum(Regional_su~~ lfur,Regions_12),Co2,Ch4,World_t,Slr_av,Sum(Emf_gnp,Regions_12),Sum(I~~ mpacts3,Regions_12),Sum(Policy,Regions_12),Tax1,Sum(Un_land_lo,Region~~ s_12)) Nodelocation: 288,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,130,44 Defnstate: 1,334,53,422,436,0,MIDM Index Scenario_stats Title: Scenario Stats Definition: ['5th percentile','25th percentile','Median','75th percent~~ ile','95th percentile'] Nodelocation: 48,216 Nodesize: 44,20 Index Regions_7 Title: Regions in ICAM 2 Description: The different regions asked for by EMF require different ~~ calculations. Definition: ['OECD','EE & FSU','China','Middle East','Africa','Latin A~~ merica','India & SE Asia'] Nodelocation: 56,264 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,120,130 Close Emf Module Gmf Title: GMF Author: Hadi Date: Sun, Nov 17, 1996 23:55 Nodelocation: 472,152 Nodesize: 76,24 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,181,72,444,151,17 Variable Population2 Title: Population Definition: slice(slice(Regional_populations, intervention, 1), time, ~~ (year-1970)/5) Nodelocation: 176,24 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,42,42,510,405,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:200M~ Ymaximum:600M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Economy Title: Economy Units: $ 1990 Definition: Slice(Slice(Economic_activity_by,Intervention,1),Time,((Ye~~ ar-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 176,48 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,509,404,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:40T~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Regional_energy_dema Title: Regional Energy Demand Units: EJ/Yr Definition: sum(Regional_energy_mix, fuels) Nodelocation: 176,96 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,508,404,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:500~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Regional_energy_mix Title: Regional Energy Mix Units: EJ/Yr Definition: Slice(Slice(Fuel_use_by_region,Intervention,1),Time,((Year~~ -1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 176,72 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,508,404,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Regional_carbon1 Title: Regional Carbon Units: GTC/Yr Definition: slice(slice(Un_carbon, intervention, 1), time, (year-1970)~~ /5) Nodelocation: 176,120 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,508,404,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Regional_sulfur1 Title: Regional Sulfur Units: TGS/Yr Definition: Slice(Slice(Reg_s,Intervention,1),Time,((Year-1970)/5)) Nodelocation: 280,24 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,508,404,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Regional_so2 Title: Regional SO2 Units: ug/m^3 Definition: slice(slice(Baseline_so2, intervention, 1), time, (year-19~~ 70)/5) Nodelocation: 280,48 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,508,404,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Regional_sulfur3 Title: Regional SO4 Units: ug/m^3 Definition: slice(slice(Baseline_so4, intervention, 1), time, (year-19~~ 70)/5) Nodelocation: 280,72 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,508,404,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Globalco2 Title: Global CO2 Units: ppmv Definition: slice(slice(Atmospheric_co2_con1, intervention, 1), time, ~~ (year-1970)/5) Nodelocation: 64,24 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,509,405,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1000~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Global_ch4 Title: Global CH4 Units: ppbv Definition: slice(slice(A_ch4, intervention, 1), time, (year-1970)/5) Nodelocation: 64,48 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,508,404,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:1600~ Ymaximum:2400~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Global_no2 Title: Global NO2 Units: ppbv Definition: slice(slice(A_n2o, intervention, 1), time, (year-1970)/5) Nodelocation: 64,72 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,42,42,509,404,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:300~ Ymaximum:700~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Year,Intervention] Variable Regional_t1 Title: Regional±T Units: °C Definition: slice(slice(Regional_dt, intervention, 1), time, (year-197~~ 0)/5) Nodelocation: 280,96 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,508,404,1,CONF Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:100~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Variable Global_slr Title: Global SLR Units: m Definition: slice(slice(Av_sea_level_rise, intervention, 1), time, (ye~~ ar-1970)/5) Nodelocation: 64,96 Nodesize: 44,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,43,42,509,405,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.5,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Year,Intervention] Module Base_information Title: Base Information Author: Hadi Date: Sun, Nov 17, 1996 23:55 Nodelocation: 376,56 Nodesize: 52,20 Diagstate: 1,88,98,449,243,17 Index Year_gmf Title: Year Definition: [1990,2025,2050,2100] Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 60,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Alias Regional__fuel_cons2 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 48,96 Nodesize: 60,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: 19661,-11463,-1 Original: Fuel_use_by_region Alias Regional_carbon_emi1 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 48,120 Nodesize: 60,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -9831,-9831,-9831 Original: Un_carbon Alias Un_regional_populat1 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 48,48 Nodesize: 60,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Original: Regional_populations Alias Regional_economies2 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 48,72 Nodesize: 60,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-1641,-13109 Original: Economic_activity_by Alias Atmospheric_co2_con2 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 176,24 Nodesize: 52,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -3278,-3278,-3278 Original: Atmospheric_co2_con1 Alias Av_sea_level_rise2 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 176,128 Nodesize: 52,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -26215,-18222,-1 Original: Av_sea_level_rise Alias Fuel_use1 Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 176,152 Nodesize: 52,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: 19661,-11463,-1 Original: Q_fuels Alias Ambient_baseline_co1 Title: Ambient Baseline Concentration Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 48,192 Nodesize: 52,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Original: Ambient_baseline_con Alias Ch4_in_ppbv Title: CH4 in PPBV Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 176,48 Nodesize: 52,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Original: A_ch4 Alias N2o_in_ppbv Title: N2O in PPBV Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 176,72 Nodesize: 52,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Original: A_n2o Objective Baseline_so2 Title: Baseline SO2 Definition: slice(Ambient_baseline_con, so2_so4, 1) Nodelocation: 48,144 Nodesize: 60,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Objective Baseline_so4 Title: Baseline SO4 Definition: slice(Ambient_baseline_con, so2_so4, 2) Nodelocation: 48,168 Nodesize: 60,12 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Close Base_information Close Gmf Module Discounted_measures_ Title: Discounted Measures of Outcome Description: Discounted outcomes, of economic and utility measures, on~~ a per capita, regional, and global scales are presented here. Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Wed, 17 Nov, 1993 10:34 PM Defaultsize: 52,20 Nodelocation: 104,152 Nodesize: 80,24 Diagstate: 1,48,52,520,251,1 Diagramcolor: 1,3,-26215 Objective Discounted_global_u1 Title: Discounted Global Utility Description: The discounted outcome associated with each intervention ~~ (market and non-market impacts) are calculated for the whole globe he~~ re. This indicator is strongly influenced by gains and losses in the~~ OECD which despite having a smaller total population has a proportio~~ nally much larger "measured" econonmic and non-economic perturbations~~ . Definition: Sum(((Pop_1990*5)*Sum((Utility_pe*((1-Discount)^(Time-1990~~ ))),Time)),Regions_12) Nodelocation: 128,72 Nodesize: 120,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,312,45,634,707,1,CDFP Aliases: Alias Al5 Nodecolor: -26215,-3277,-1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:3~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1Q~ Xmaximum:2Q~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Numberformat: 1,D,5,2,0,0 Objective Discounted_global_ne Title: Discounted Global Net Utility of Policy Description: Net impact of intervention on utility (market and non-ma~~ rket impacts) are calculated for the whole globe here. This indicato~~ r is strongly influenced by gains and losses in the OECD which despit~~ e having a smaller total population has a proportionally much larger ~~ "measured" econonmic and non-economic perturbations. Definition: Sum(((Pop_1990*5)*Sum((Net_utilit*((1-Discount)^(Time-1990~~ ))),Time)),Regions_12) Nodelocation: 128,152 Nodesize: 120,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,215,150,632,434,1,CDFP Nodecolor: 19661,-22937,-1 Graphsetup: Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:0~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Graphtool:0~ Xminimum:-1Q~ Xmaximum:16.78M~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Objective Net_benefit_pc_disc_ Title: Net Benefit/pc Disc. Units: $/Cap Description: Net impact of intervention on the market and formal econo~~ my are calculated for each region in the model. Definition: (5*Sum((Benefit_cost*((1-Discount)^(Time-1990))),Time)) Nodelocation: 128,32 Nodesize: 120,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Windstate: 1,131,243 Valuestate: 1,181,89,492,471,1,CDFP Aliases: Formnode Dicounted_net_benefi Nodecolor: -13109,-1639,-1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:-150K~ Xmaximum:50K~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Objective Discounted_net_utili Title: Discounted Net Utility of Policy Description: Net impact of intervention on the market and non-market a~~ spects of utility are calculated for each region in the model. Definition: (pop_1990*5*Sum((Net_utilit*((1-Discount)^(Time-1990))),Ti~~ me)) Nodelocation: 128,112 Nodesize: 120,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,85,83,632,434,1,CDFP Nodecolor: 1,-19661,-13109 Graphsetup: Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:0~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Graphtool:0~ Xminimum:-1Q~ Xmaximum:16.78M~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:2~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Objective Utility_pc_disc_ Title: Utility/pc Disc. Units: ($ 1990) Description: Net impact of intervention on utility (market and non-mar~~ ket impacts) are calculated for each region. Compare this with the ~~ global indicator which is strongly influenced by gains and losses in ~~ the OECD which despite having a smaller total population has a propor~~ tionally much larger "measured" econonmic and non-economic perturbati~~ ons. Definition: (5*Sum((Utility_pe*((1-Discount)^(Time-1990))),Time)) Nodelocation: 128,192 Nodesize: 120,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,75,44,607,468,1,CDFP Aliases: Formnode Discounted_utility_p Nodecolor: -26215,-26215,-1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:2.75M~ Xmaximum:2.95M~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Module Preliminary_calculat Title: Preliminary Calculations Description: Discounting, and calculation of net impacts on the econom~~ y due to intervention are presented here. Author: Hadi Date: Mon, Oct 21, 1996 4:38 Nodelocation: 96,304 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,207,48,462,378,17 Variable Discount Title: Discount~ Rate Description: The discount rate. Definition: dynamic(~ Disc_sens*~ (if discounting='Schelling' then Schelling_r else Fixed_r), ~ Disc_sens*~ (if discounting='Schelling' then Schelling_r else Fixed_r)) Nodelocation: 168,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,248,258 Valuestate: 1,216,231,404,318,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Placing_a_ Title: Placing a Value on Non-market Damage Units: $/Cap-Yr Description: This is the economic loss equivalent for individuals in e~~ ach world region through the simulation period. Definition: Dynamic((Regional_n/Regional_populations),(Regional_n/Regi~~ onal_populations)) Nodelocation: 184,208 Nodesize: 56,32 Valuestate: 1,37,39,539,430,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Benefit_cost Title: Benefit Cost Compared to Inaction Units: $/Cap-Yr Definition: Dynamic((Regional__gdp_pc-Slice(Regional__gdp_pc,Intervent~~ ion,1)),(Regional__gdp_pc-Slice(Regional__gdp_pc,Intervention,1))) Nodelocation: 344,336 Nodesize: 52,36 Windstate: 1,116,194 Valuestate: 1,5,37,630,437,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-13109,-2 Graphsetup: Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Frameauto:1~ Xminimum:340T~ Xmaximum:380T~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:0.1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:4~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,D,2,2,0,0 Chance Schelling_r Title: Schelling Discounting Description: Tom Schelling suggests using a measure of this and the gr~~ owth per capita in welfare as a consistant framework of discounting a~~ cross generations. Here I just add the rate of time preference to th~~ e growth per capita Definition: Dynamic((Growthsen/100),(Growthsen/100)) Nodelocation: 56,80 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,136,146,604,307,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Utility_pe Title: Utility Per Capita Units: ($ 1990) Definition: Dynamic((Regional__gdp_pc-Placing_a_),(Regional__gdp_pc-Pl~~ acing_a_)) Nodelocation: 336,208 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodecolor: -1,-13109,-2 Chance Equivalent Title: Equivalent NonMarket Damages pc Definition: (5*Sum((Placing_a_*((1-Discount)^(Time-1990))),Time)) Nodelocation: 336,128 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,STAT Nodecolor: -1,-13109,-2 Reformval: [Intervention,Statslabels] Chance Net_utilit Title: Net Utility per Capita Definition: Dynamic(((Regional__gdp_pc-Placing_a_)-Slice((Regional__gd~~ p_pc-Placing_a_),Intervention,1)),((Regional__gdp_pc-Placing_a_)-Slic~~ e((Regional__gdp_pc-Placing_a_),Intervention,1))) Nodelocation: 336,264 Nodesize: 52,20 Nodecolor: -1,-13109,-2 Chance Fixed_r Title: Arrow Discounting Description: Prof Arrow has prescribed 4% as the desirable social dis~~ count rate for climate change policy analysis! Definition: if discounting = '0% pa' then 0 else~ if discounting = '2% pa' then 0.02 else~ if discounting ='4% pa' then 0.04 else~ if discounting = '6% pa' then 0.06 else~ if discounting ='10% pa' then 0.1 else 0 Nodelocation: 56,176 Nodesize: 52,20 Close Preliminary_calculat Objective Probability_delay_wi Title: Probability Delay Will Raise Utility Definition: (Ifall (Slice(Discounted_global_ne,Intervention,2)= 0.20 then 1 else 0 Nodelocation: 392,40 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,325,338 Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-26215 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Hit_bound_in_poverty Title: Hit Bound in Poverty Definition: (If (Time>2000) Then (Ifall (Economic_activity_by=(200*Reg~~ ional_populations)) Then 1 Else 0) Else 0) Nodelocation: 64,40 Nodesize: 52,24 Valuestate: 1,168,178,416,303,0,SAMP Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-26215 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Probability_of_pover Title: Probability of Poverty crisis Definition: Mean(Hit_bound_in_poverty) Nodelocation: 64,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Hit_bound_in_substit Title: Hit Bound in Substitution Away from fuel Definition: if Dq_fuels_regional = -.5 then 1 else 0 Nodelocation: 224,40 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,168,178,519,380,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-26215 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Fuel_glut_probabilit Title: Fuel Glut Probabilities Definition: Mean(Hit_bound_in_substit) Nodelocation: 224,96 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,567,391,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Prob_of_high_market_ Title: Prob of High Market Impacts Definition: Mean(Hit_bound_in_market) Nodelocation: 392,128 Nodesize: 56,24 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Hit_bound_in_fuel__a Title: Hit Bound in Fuel Availability Definition: if Dq_fuels_regional = 1 then 1 else 0 Nodelocation: 224,416 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,168,178,519,380,0,MIDM Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-26215 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Fuel_shortage_probab Title: Fuel Shortage Probabilities Definition: Mean(Hit_bound_in_fuel__a) Nodelocation: 224,360 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,40,50,567,391,0,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Hit_bound_in_market1 Title: Hit Bound in Local Market Impacts Definition: ifall Bounded_ma >= 0.02 then 1 else 0 Nodelocation: 392,416 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,96,382 Valuestate: 1,168,178,635,545,1,SAMP Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-26215 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:1~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Times, 10 Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Chance Prob_of_high_market1 Title: Prob of High Local Market Impacts Definition: Mean(Hit_bound_in_market1) Nodelocation: 392,328 Nodesize: 52,28 Valuestate: 1,72,82,514,500,0,MIDM Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Variable Policy_crisis Title: Policy induced crisis Definition: (If (Time>2000) Then (Ifall (Economics_of_policy/Economic_~~ trends < -.20) Then 1 Else 0) Else 0) Nodelocation: 64,416 Nodesize: 48,28 Windstate: 1,249,284 Valuestate: 1,57,52,792,554,0,MEAN Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-26215 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Times New Roman, 10 Reformval: [Regions_12,Time] Chance Probability_of_pove1 Title: Probability of Policy crisis Definition: Mean(Policy_crisis) Nodelocation: 64,288 Nodesize: 52,24 Valuestate: 1,55,61,448,544,0,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:9~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:2~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:27~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:5~ Yintervals:5~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Intervention,Time] Variable Crises Title: Summary of Crises Definition: Table(Crises_index)(~ Probability_of_pover,Probability_of_pove1,Prob_of_high_market1,Prob_o~~ f_high_market_,(If (Fuelshortage1>0) Then (-Fuelshortage1) Else Fuelg~~ lut1),(If (Fuelshortage2>0) Then (-Fuelshortage2) Else Fuelglut2),(If~~ (Fuelshortage3>0) Then (-Fuelshortage3) Else Fuelglut3),(If (Fuelsho~~ rtage4>0) Then (-Fuelshortage4) Else Fuelglut4)) Nodelocation: 224,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Defnstate: 1,127,237,666,304,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,111,12,841,616,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Probability_of_vario, Formnode Probability_of_vari1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:8~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,%,4,0,0,0 Index Crises_index Title: Crises Index Description: ¥ Poverty is triggered when regional incomes per capita f~~ all to <$200.~ ¥ Costly policy is when the loss of welfare from the policy > 20%.~ ¥ Costly local loss occures when an impact > 2% of GDP.~ ¥ Costly regional loss occures when an impact > 20% of GDP.~ ¥ Energy glut/shortage occurs when the demand for coal is calculated ~~ to fall/rise >50% in 5 years. Definition: ['Poverty','Costly policy','Extreme local loss','Extreme r~~ egional loss','Coal glut/shortage(-)','Oil glut/shortage(-)','Gas glu~~ t/shortage(-)','Renewables glut/shortage(-)'] Nodelocation: 64,232 Nodesize: 52,20 Windstate: 1,305,126 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Poverty','Costly policy','Extreme local ~~ loss','Extreme regional loss','Coal glut/shortage(-)','Oil glut/shor~~ tage(-)','Gas glut/shortage(-)','Renewables glut/shortage(-)']} Chance Fuelshortage1 Definition: slice(Fuel_shortage_probab, fuels, 1) Nodelocation: 176,296 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Fuelshortage2 Definition: slice(Fuel_shortage_probab, fuels,2) Nodelocation: 280,296 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Fuelshortage3 Definition: slice(Fuel_shortage_probab, fuels, 3) Nodelocation: 176,328 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Fuelshortage4 Definition: slice(Fuel_shortage_probab, fuels, 4) Nodelocation: 280,328 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Fuelglut1 Definition: slice(Fuel_glut_probabilit, fuels, 1) Nodelocation: 176,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Fuelglut2 Definition: slice(Fuel_glut_probabilit, fuels, 2) Nodelocation: 288,128 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Fuelglut3 Definition: slice(Fuel_glut_probabilit, fuels, 3) Nodelocation: 176,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Chance Fuelglut4 Definition: slice(Fuel_glut_probabilit, fuels, 4) Nodelocation: 288,160 Nodesize: 52,20 Variable Policy_initiative Title: Policy initiative Definition: Dynamic(Hit_bound_in_market1,(Hit_bound_in_market1+(Policy~~ _initiative[Time-1]/2))) Nodelocation: 400,256 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,552,402,1,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Policy_initiative1 Title: Policy initiative driven by local impacts Definition: (If ((Sum((Policy_initiative*Un_carbon),Regions_12)/Global~~ _carbon_emissi)>0.5) Then 1 Else 0) Nodelocation: 416,256 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 1,110,133 Valuestate: 1,68,186,734,417,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:2000~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:4~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,%,4,0,0,0 Variable Policy_initiative2 Title: Policy initiative Definition: Dynamic(Hit_bound_in_market,(Hit_bound_in_market+(Policy_i~~ nitiative2[Time-1]/2))) Nodelocation: 392,184 Nodesize: 52,20 Valuestate: 1,120,130,552,402,1,SAMP Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Variable Policy_initiative3 Title: Policy initiative driven by regional impacts Definition: Mean((If ((Sum((Policy_initiative2*Un_carbon),Regions_12)/~~ Global_carbon_emissi)>0.5) Then 1 Else 0)) Nodelocation: 416,192 Nodesize: 52,32 Valuestate: 1,251,156,453,444,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:1~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:-1u~ Ymaximum:1u~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:12~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Numberformat: 1,%,4,0,0,0 Close Crisis_indicators Close Other_details Close Saved_illustrative_r Formnode Global_population1 Title: Global Population Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 144,56,1 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 14 Original: Global_population Formnode Atmospheric_co2_con3 Title: Atmospheric CO2 Conc. Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 416,56,1 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 14 Original: Atmospheric_co2_con1 Formnode Global_average_temp1 Title: Global Average Temp. Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 416,80,1 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 14 Original: Global_average__t Formnode Av_sea_level_rise3 Title: Av Sea Level Rise Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 416,128,1 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 14 Original: Av_sea_level_rise Formnode Global_carbon_emiss2 Title: Global Carbon Emissions Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 144,152,1 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 14 Original: Global_carbon_emissi Formnode Gross_world_product2 Title: Gross World Product Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 144,80,1 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 14 Original: Gross_world_product Formnode Global_market_impac1 Title: Global Market Impacts Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 416,152,1 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 14 Original: Global_market_impact Formnode Carbon_tax1 Title: Carbon Tax Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 144,184,1 Nodesize: 136,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: Carbon_tax Text Te13 Description: ~ Selected global indicators of change to 2100. Click on the "Calc~~ " button to get results. Nodelocation: 296,21 Nodesize: 304,21 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,0,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Formnode Fuel_prices Title: Fuel Prices Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 144,128,1 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 14 Original: P_fuels Formnode Total_primary_energ3 Title: Total Primary Energy Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 144,104,1 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 14 Original: Tpe Chance Cpc Title: Carbon per capita Units: TC/person Definition: 1G*UN_carbon/regional_populations Nodelocation: 216,496,1 Nodesize: 52,22 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,62,48,708,441,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:20~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:11~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:4~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Intervention] Chance Dollarpercarbon Title: Dollar per Ton of Carbon Units: $/TC Definition: Economic_activity_by/(1G*UN_carbon) Nodelocation: 360,496,1 Nodesize: 52,22 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Valuestate: 1,82,52,642,541,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:1~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:2~ Grid:3~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1975~ Xmaximum:2100~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:60K~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:6~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Reformval: [Time,Regions_12] Formnode Probability_of_vario Title: Probability of Various Crises Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 416,184,1 Nodesize: 136,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -1,19661,19661 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: Crises Module Regional_results Title: Regional Details Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Tue, Mar 10, 1998 7:43 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 296,248,1 Nodesize: 308,40 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1, Diagstate: 1,269,37,652,352,17 Nodecolor: -1,-3281,-26215 Fontstyle: Arial, 12 Formnode Gdp_impact_of_delay1 Title: GDP impact of Delay Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,224,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Nodefont: Arial, 11 Original: Gdp_impact_of_delay Formnode Regional_population1 Title: Regional Populations Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,56,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 11 Original: Regional_populations Formnode Regional_carbon_emi2 Title: Regional Carbon Emissions Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,128,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -13111,-26215,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 11 Original: Un_carbon Formnode Regional__fuel_cons3 Title: Regional Fuel Consumption Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,104,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -13111,-26215,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 11 Original: Fuel_use_by_region Formnode Market_impacts_by_r2 Title: Market Impacts by region Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,272,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Nodefont: Arial, 11 Original: Market_impacts_by_r1 Formnode Cost_of_mitigation1 Title: Cost of Mitigation Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,176,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Nodefont: Arial, 11 Original: Cost_of_mitigation Formnode Discounted_utility_p Title: Discounted Utility Per Capita Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,272,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Nodefont: Arial, 11 Original: Utility_pc_disc_ Formnode Dicounted_net_benefi Title: Dicounted Net Benefit Per Capita Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,200,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Nodefont: Arial, 11 Original: Net_benefit_pc_disc_ Text Te12 Description: ~ . Selected regional indicators of change to 2100. Click on the "~~ Calc" button to get results. Nodelocation: 312,24,-1 Nodesize: 324,24 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Formnode Regional__gnp_pc Title: Regional ~ GNP-pc Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,80,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Regional__gdp_pc Formnode Discounted_cost_of_m Title: Discounted Cost of Mitigation Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,248,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-1,-22939 Nodefont: Arial, 11 Original: Cost_of_mitigation2 Formnode Regional_temperatur1 Title: Regional Temperature Change Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,56,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-5,1 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Regional_dt Formnode Co2_sequestration Title: CO2 Sequestration Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,152,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -13111,-26215,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Co2_cm Formnode Land_inundated_by_sl Title: Land inundated by SLR Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,128,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-5734,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Total_land Formnode Structures_lost_to_s Title: Structures lost to SLR Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,152,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-5734,-1 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 13 Original: Total_prop Formnode Population_affected_ Title: Population affected by SLR Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,104,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-5734,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Total_pop_slr Formnode Excess_deaths_due_to Title: Excess deaths due to policy Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,224,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-13109,-13109 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Loss_of_life_expecta Formnode Air_pollution_death1 Title: Air Pollution Deaths Averted Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,200,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-13109,-13109 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Mortality_due_to_sul Formnode Regional_sea_level_r Title: Regional Sea Level Rise Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,80,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: 19661,-5734,-1 Nodefont: Arial, 10 Original: Un_slr Formnode Carbon_tax2 Title: Carbon Tax Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 160,296,1 Nodesize: 156,16 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -22938,-22938,-22938 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: Carbon_tax Formnode Probability_of_vari1 Title: Probability of Various Crises Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,296,1 Nodesize: 156,16 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -1,19661,19661 Nodefont: Arial, 12 Original: Crises Formnode Urban_air_quality1 Title: Urban Air Quality Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,176,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,1, Nodecolor: -1,-13109,-13109 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 10 Original: Urban_air_quality Formnode Global_flux_of_carb2 Title: Global flux of carbon from land to atmosphere Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 472,248,1 Nodesize: 156,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1 Nodecolor: 19664,65535,19661 Original: Regional_flux_of_car Close Regional_results Formnode Global_flux_of_carb1 Title: Global flux of carbon from land to atmosphere Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 416,104,1 Nodesize: 136,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1, Nodecolor: 65535,65535,65535 Nodefont: Arial, 14 Original: Global_flux_of_carbo Close Outputs2 Text Te3 Description: To run the model:~ 1 - Double click on INPUTS to set up the scenario inputs; ~ 2 - Double click on STRUCTURE to set up the model; ~ 3 - Double click on OUTPUTS and evaluate the indicators. Nodelocation: 216,40,-1 Nodesize: 216,40 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-22939,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Close The_integrated_clima Module Model_requirements Title: Computational Requirements to Run the Model Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: 1 Dec, 1997 9:26 Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 304,352,0 Nodesize: 92,32 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,0,1,1,,1, Diagstate: 1,46,45,590,534,17 Nodecolor: 1,-13109,-26215 Diagramcolor: -13109,-1639,-1 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Text Te23 Description: ICAM is a probabilistic model. You can use it to generat~~ e probabilistic estimates of key indicators and policy outcomes. The~~ model has over 2000 uncertain variables, and over a hundred alternat~~ ive structures. In order to generate probabilistically stable and re~~ liable results, you will need to evaluate the model with a sample siz~~ e of 400 or larger. You can set the sample size using the 'command ~~ U' key combination or the 'Uncertainty Option' under the 'Results' me~~ nu heading above.~ ~ The full model requires 5 Megabytes of RAM or virtual RAM per evaluat~~ ion! Thus, a sample run with 400 realizations requires 2000 Megabyte~~ s of RAM or virtual memory. ~ ~ Few personal computers place such large resources at the disposal of ~~ users at the time I write this (1999). Please remember that projecti~~ ons with fewer samples are likely to generater biased estimates of mo~~ st key variables. Thus, if you change the sample size, sample seed, ~~ or sampling scheme, you can get qualitatively different results with ~~ very small sample sizes. ~ ~ It is possible to reduce the model's memory requirements by 1 Megabyt~~ e per evaluation through settling for the simple demographics model.~~ If you choose to ignore the dynamic impacts of climate change on la~~ nd cover and the terrestrial carbon cycle, you can reduce the model's~~ memory requirements by a further 2 Megabytes per run. More economie~~ s can be achieved by ignoring aerosols, and various impacts (e.g., he~~ alth, and sea level rise).~ ~ Hardware requirements:~ RAM: Minimum of 32 Megabytes~ CPU: PC: 200Mhz Pentium or faster~ On a PII running at 400 MHz, running Analytica 2.01, a sing~~ le evaluation takes about 20 seconds. ~ CPU: Mac: 200Mhz 603/ 120Mhz 604 or faster~ On a G3 running at 300 MHz, running Analatuca 1.1, a single~~ evaluation takes about 40 seconds.~ ~ Spiritual requirements:~ ¥ If you have a slower computer and lots of runs to complete: the pat~~ ience of Jobe.~ ¥ If you are a disciplinary expert: your indulgence of how an interdi~~ sciplinary approach necessarily simplifies the complexity in your dom~~ ain.~ ~ Happy computing! Nodelocation: 296,290,-1 Nodesize: 280,274 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -13109,-3277,-1 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Close Model_requirements Module An_introduction_to_c Title: An Introduction to Climate Change & Integrated Assessment Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Jul 30, 1998 4:17 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 112,352,0 Nodesize: 92,32 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,0,1,1,,1, Diagstate: 1,51,50,666,590,17 Nodecolor: 1,-13109,-26215 Diagramcolor: -13109,-1,-1 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Module A1__what_is_climate_ Title: 1. What is Climate Change? Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Jul 30, 1998 4:17 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 568,64 Nodesize: 56,40 Diagstate: 1,56,68,633,548,17 Nodecolor: -1,-11469,19661 Text Te25 Description: _________________________WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?_________~~ ______________~ ~ ¥ WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CLIMATE & WEATHER?~ Weather changes all the time. The average pattern of weather, called ~~ climate, usually stays pretty much the same for centuries if it is le~~ ft to itself. However, the earth is not being left alone. People are ~~ taking actions that can change the earth and its climate in significa~~ nt ways. Carbon dioxide is the main culprit. ~ ~ ¥ WHAT IS THE PRINCIPLE CONTRIBUTOR TO CLIMATE CHANGE?~ The single human activity that is most likely to have a large impact ~~ on the climate is the burning of "fossil fuels" such as coal, oil and~~ gas. These fuels contain carbon. Burning them makes carbon dioxide g~~ as. Since the early 1800s, when people began burning large amounts of~~ coal and oil, the amount of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere~~ has increased by nearly 30%, and average global temperature appears ~~ to have risen between 1° and 2°F. Carbon dioxide gas traps solar heat~~ in the atmosphere, partly in the same way as glass traps solar heat ~~ in a sunroom or a greenhouse. For this reason, carbon dioxide is some~~ times called a "greenhouse gas." ~ ~ As more carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, solar heat has mor~~ e trouble getting out. The result is that, if everything else stayed ~~ unchanged, the average temperature of the atmosphere would increase. ~~ As people burn more fossil fuel for energy they add more carbon dioxi~~ de to the atmosphere. If this goes on long enough, the average temper~~ ature of the atmosphere will almost certainly rise. ~ ~ If global warming occurs, not every day or every place will be warmer~~ . But on average most ~ places will be warmer. This will cause changes in the amount and patt~~ ern of rain and snow, in the length of growing seasons, in the freque~~ ncy and severity of storms, and in sea level. Farms, forests, and pla~~ nts and animals in the natural environment, will all be affected. ~ ~ In the few places were sufficiently long histories of rainfall are av~~ ailable it is apparent that the pattern of rainfall has changed over ~~ the past century. In particular, it seems that in the temperate regi~~ ons such as North America, there is more rainfall. The rain however,~~ does not fall as it did before. More of the precipitation is now in~~ heavy showers and there are longer periods with no rain at all.~ ~ ¥ IS IT ALL ABOUT CO2 and WARMING?~ Other gases and dust also matter. Carbon dioxide is not the only gas ~~ released by human activities that can cause warming. Human emissions ~~ of methane and nitrous oxide together contribute almost half as much ~~ warming. Not all things that enter the atmosphere cause warming. Dust~~ from volcanos, and from human activities, can reflect sunlight (like~~ a window shade) and cool the earth. Coal and oil contain sulfur. Whe~~ n they are burned the sulfur is transformed into fine particles in th~~ e atmosphere. This sulfur pollution contributes to various environmen~~ tal problems. Most scientists think that sulfur particles cool the pl~~ anet. In the northern hemisphere, this cooling has partly canceled so~~ me of the warming that should have ~ come from the growing concentrations of greenhouse gases. However, si~~ nce emissions of greenhouse gases continue to grow, and most countrie~~ s are working hard to reduce emissions of sulfur air pollution, this ~~ canceling will grow less pronounced in the future. In that case, the ~~ average temperature of the globe may rise more rapidly. ~ ~ ¥ HOW MUCH WARMING WILL THERE BE?~ If things go on pretty much as they have been, scientists' best guess~~ is that the amount of warming will be about 2.5°F (1.4°C) by the yea~~ r 2050. The range of uncertainty stretches from almost no change to o~~ ver 4°F (2.3°C). ~ ~ ¥WHAT ABOUT THE OZONE HOLE?~ The ozone hole is a different problem. Many people confuse the hole ~~ in the ozone layer with climate change. However, these two problems a~~ re not closely related. The ozone layer protects the earth from harmf~~ ul ultraviolet light that can cause skin cancer and damage plants and~~ animals. The main cause of the hole in the ozone layer is chlorofluo~~ rocarbons (CFCs), gases that are used in refrigerators, air condition~~ ers, and industrial applications. While CFCs alone cause warming, the~~ ir ozone destruction can cause cooling. So far these warming and cool~~ ing influences have approximately balanced. Prior to 1978 CFCs were u~~ sed as a propellant in aerosol spray cans, but that use has ended in ~~ the U.S. Under an international agreement most uses of CFCs are now b~~ eing phased out to protect the ozone layer. ~ ~ ¥ IS CLIMATE CHANGE JUST A SCARE STORY?~ No,the earth's climate has been changing continually for millions of ~~ years. Scientists know many of the things that cause these changes. S~~ ome, like the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, are now bei~~ ng affected by human activities. Others like changes in the output o~~ f light from the sun and the inclination of the earth in its orbit ar~~ ound the sun are thought to have triggered large climate changes in t~~ he past. But no one is suggesting that humans can affect the sun's o~~ utput or the earth's inclination.~ ~ Even if the current trends in climate are found to be caused by natur~~ al processes, we need to try to understand these in order to develop ~~ appropriate strategies to adapt to a changing environment.~ Nodelocation: 304,616,-1 Nodesize: 276,592 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Times, 12 Close A1__what_is_climate_ Module A2__what_are_climate Title: 2. What are Climate Impacts? Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Jul 30, 1998 4:17 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 568,152 Nodesize: 56,40 Diagstate: 1,100,20,634,588,17 Nodecolor: -1,-26215,-26215 Text Te26 Description: ____________ 2: IF CLIMATE CHANGES WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?____~~ ______________~ ~ Obviously, climate has a big influence on plants and animals in the n~~ atural environment, on ~ oceans, and on human activities, such as agriculture, water supplies,~~ and heating and cooling. The effects of climate change depend upon h~~ ow much change there is, how fast it occurs, and how easily the world~~ can adapt to the new conditions. Impacts on people.The effects of cl~~ imate ~ change on people would change a lot from place-to-place. ~ ~ Economically developed societies, like those in North America, Europe~~ and Japan, could use technology to reduce direct impacts. For exampl~~ e, they might develop new crop varieties, construct new water systems~~ , and limit coastal development. Some northern countries, such as Can~~ ada and Russia, might even benefit from longer growing seasons and lo~~ wer heating bills if the climate becomes warmer. ~ ~ In contrast, economically less developed societies, like those in par~~ ts of Africa, Asia, and South America depend much more directly on cl~~ imate, and could be hit much harder by sudden or large changes. Place~~ s like coastal Bangladesh and low-lying islands, could be flooded by ~~ storms or rising sea level. Droughts in Africa might become more seri~~ ous. Developing countries have far fewer resources for adapting to su~~ ch changes. They may not be able to afford large projects ~ such as sea walls or aqueducts. Peasant farmers may have difficulty a~~ dopting new agricultural practices. The resulting social tensions cou~~ ld lead to more political unrest, large-scale migrations, and serious~~ international problems such as terrorism and wars. ~ ~ ¥ IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTH~ Extremes of climate certainly impact human health. Not a winter goes~~ by without us learning of people dying of hypothermia. Not a summer~~ passes without us hearing about the toll of heat exhaustion on the e~~ lderly. These events while visible and regrettable, are known to be ~~ preventable through provision of shelter, air conditioning, and advic~~ e about outdoor activities. ~ ~ Climate change can also have many indirect impacts on human health. ~~ Climate change can affect agricultural output, and in poorer economie~~ s this can lead to malnutrition, morbidity and death. A longer perio~~ d of warmer weather can increase the frequency and severity of poor u~~ rban air quality -- which we suspect to be responsible for serious he~~ alth impacts. ~ ~ Finally, in poorer parts of the world, climate is thought to be the l~~ imiting factor for vector borne diseases. If climate changes, so wil~~ l the domain of such vectors endangering new population groups. Thes~~ e populations will be particularly vulnerable because their immune sy~~ stems have not been exposed to and co-evolved with the diseases carri~~ ed by the invading species.~ ~ ¥ IMPACTS ON NATURE~ When scientists look at the past they find the natural environment ha~~ s often adapted to climate changes that have occurred gradually over ~~ many thousands of years. However, they also find instances in which c~~ hanges have occurred rapidly, brought about by events such as sudden ~~ shifts in ocean currents. These rapid changes have often caused wides~~ pread species extinctions and the collapse of natural ecosystems. ~ ~ One way to understand the importance of the speed of change is to thi~~ nk about native plants that grow in North America. Global warming cou~~ ld mean that those currently growing in Georgia might be better suite~~ d to New England. If climate changes gradually, many plants may be ab~~ le to "migrate" by spreading seeds into new areas where they can now ~~ grow. But if climate changes rapidly, many plants may not be able to ~~ spread their seeds far enough to reach the new area. If they die out,~~ so may many of the animals that depend upon them. ~ ~ ¥ WHY DO SCIENTISTS DISAGREE ABOUT IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE?~ Scientists disagree about whether climate change will be a serious pr~~ oblem in the next 50 to 100 years. The main reason for this disagreem~~ ent is that nobody knows for sure whether climate changes caused by h~~ uman actions will be large enough and fast enough to cause serious da~~ mage. Many scientists believe that they may be. Others argue that if ~~ changes occur, the problems they cause will be minor compared with pr~~ oblems caused by today's storms and droughts. ~ ~ ¥ IS IT TRUE THAT MORE CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP PLANTS GROW? ~ It might. Plants need carbon dioxide to grow. Using sunlight and phot~~ osynthesis, plants change carbon dioxide and water into food. If plan~~ ts have all the other nutrients they need, then giving them more carb~~ on dioxide will cause many to grow more. Commercial growers often do ~~ this in greenhouses. However, plants growing in natural environments ~~ often do not have all the nutrients they need, and may not grow faste~~ r, even if there is more carbon dioxide. If some plants on land and i~~ n the oceans are naturally able to take more carbon dioxide out of th~~ e atmosphere, they will grow faster. This would change the mixof plan~~ ts, but might also slow global warming. ~ ~ ¥ WILL CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE SEA LEVELS & LEAD TO MORE STORMS?~ The extra energy trapped by the greenhouses gases in the earth's atmo~~ sphere will heat up the earth and sea. The heat entering the oceans ~~ will increase their volume - salt-water expands when heated. To a le~~ sser extent, the higher temperatures will melt glaciers and increase ~~ the sea level by the extra fresh water which will be released into th~~ e seas.~ ~ An increase in the earth's average temperature of about 3.5°F, which ~~ is probably too little to melt most polar ice, would result in an inc~~ rease in sea level of between 8 and 30 inches. This is large enough ~~ to flood low lying coral islands, and damage coastal plants and anima~~ ls. It is too little to flood most coastal cities in richer countrie~~ s which are already protected by sea-walls constructed to limit damag~~ e from storms. ~ ~ While flooding under normal weather conditions might be small, higher~~ sea level would mean that hurricanes and similar large storms could ~~ do more damage than in the past. Whether these types are storms are l~~ ikely to grow more severe of frequent is a highly controversial scien~~ tific question. We have seen that when tropical sea surfaces are war~~ mer fewer hurricanes are generated in the Atlantic Ocean, but more se~~ vere storms are spawned in the Pacific. Based on these observations,~~ some experts argue that storms would become more frequent and intens~~ e in a warmer climate. This could have large impacts. Other experts d~~ oubt such changes will occur. ~ ~ ¥EXAMPLES OF HOW LARGE & RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE MIGHT AFFECT THE NATURA~~ L ENVIRONMENT~ - Plant migration: ~ Climate may change faster than plants can move from one region to ano~~ ther. This may cause species extinction, lower biodiversity, and chan~~ ges in the way species interact. Coral reefs: Slightly warmer tropic~~ al water may kill the algae which reef animals use for food. ~ - Changes in insect pests: Climate change can affect the number and k~~ inds of pests directly. It ~ can also affect them by changing the mix of plant varieties and their~~ nutrient content. This can influence plant survival, food chains, an~~ d the spread of disease. ~ - Mangrove swamps: Mangrove swamps are important breeding grounds for~~ many animals that live in water. Increased ocean flooding may damage~~ these areas by changing the supply of nutrients and the amount of sa~~ lt.~ ~ Nodelocation: 312,848,-1 Nodesize: 284,816 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Times, 12 Close A2__what_are_climate Text Te27 Description: 1: WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?~ Burning coal, oil and natural gas releases carbon dioxide gas into th~~ e atmosphere. On average, this may warm the earth and change the clim~~ ate in other ways. For example, it might change the severity and dura~~ tion of storms or droughts. Other human activities, such as cutting d~~ own forests, and growing rice, and raising cattle, may have the same ~~ effect, but are less important. ~ ~ 2: WHAT IMPACTS MIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE BRING ABOUT?~ If there is climate change, heating, cooling, water use, and sea leve~~ l will be affected. In wealthier countries, the average cost to the w~~ hole economy would probably be small. Nevertheless, some people and ~~ regions might have high costs and others might receive large benefits~~ . In some poor countries, the cost could be very high. Some island s~~ tates are likely to be inundated by rising sea levels. A large or fas~~ t change in climate will have a big effect on plants and animals in t~~ he natural environment. Very rapid climate change is unlikely, but co~~ uld be disastrous, even for wealthy countries. ~ ~ 3: WHAT KIND OF POLICIES WOULD ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE?~ We could reduce the rate at which we add carbon dioxide to the atmosp~~ here by burning less coal, oil and natural gas. If climate changes, w~~ e could adapt by changing agriculture and other human activities. Man~~ y plants and animals in the natural environment might be unable to ad~~ apt. If warming is large and costly, some people might want to make c~~ hanges to the atmosphere or oceans in order to cool the earth. This i~~ s very controversial. ~ ~ 4: WHAT IS INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT?~ A study of how human actions lead to and are affected by climate chan~~ ge provides the back-drop for exploration of an appropriate climate p~~ olicy. Integrated assessments allow combination of the best availabl~~ e information from various disciplines to shed light on the complex o~~ f interactions between human and earth systems.~ ~ For more details double click on the buttons to the right >~ Nodelocation: 264,200 Nodesize: 244,184 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Module A3__what_is_a_climat Title: 3. What is a Climate Policy? Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Jul 30, 1998 4:17 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 568,240 Nodesize: 56,40 Diagstate: 1,85,57,639,548,17 Nodecolor: -13111,-26215,-1 Text Te28 Description: ____________3: WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE?____~~ __________~ ~ ~ ¥ IF CO2 & OTHER GASES RELEASED BY HUMAN ACTIVITY CAUSE CLIMATE CHANG~~ E WHAT CAN PEOPLE DO ABOUT IT? ~ Three basic strategies are available, abatement, adaptation, and geo-~~ engineering. ~ - Abatement: To abate means to slow or stop. Abatement strategies aim~~ to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases that can c~~ ause climate change. They include improving energy efficiency, so tha~~ t we burn less fuel, and using sources of energy that emit no greenho~~ use gases, such as solar or nuclear power. ~ - Adaptation: Under this strategy people find ways to live successful~~ ly with the changed climate. For example, land use may change. Aquedu~~ cts can be built to bring water into newly dry areas. Coastal populat~~ ions can be protected from rising sea level by building dikes and sea~~ walls, by relocating populations inland, and by protecting fresh-wat~~ er supplies from salt-water intrusion. ~ - Geo-Engineering: Geo means earth, so geo-engineering means to engin~~ eer the earth's atmosphere and oceans to reduce the amount of climate~~ change. For example, the amount of sunlight that strikes the earth m~~ ight be reduced by putting more small particles into the high atmosph~~ ere. The idea is to off-set the warming effect of more greenhouse gas~~ by reflecting more sunlight back into space. Many people oppose geo-~~ engineering because they think there might be unintended side effects~~ . However, if rapid and severe climate change occurs, some are likely~~ to press for geo-engineering because it can be done quickly with imm~~ ediate results; it can be done unilaterally; and will be relatively i~~ nexpensive. ~ ~ Choosing the appropriate combination of strategies is difficult. Each~~ will cost money, pose problems, and offer benefits. It is unlikely t~~ hat any single strategy can do the job. Uncertainty is added because ~~ scientists do not yet know enough about the costs, risks, and benefit~~ s. It is important for researchers to study the options quickly and c~~ arefully so that people can make informed choices. ~ ~ ¥ WHAT MIGHT INDIVIDUALS DO TO REDUCE THE CHANCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE?~ Since most of our energy comes from oil, coal and gas, actions that r~~ educe energy use will reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide. For exa~~ mple:When you buy a car, choose one that gets good mileage. Insulate ~~ and weatherize your home or apartment. Carpool or drive less. Replace~~ ~ old, worn-out appliances (e.g., refrigerators, heat pumps) with the m~~ ost efficient new models. If the average U.S. citizen undertakes all ~~ of these actions, they can reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by a~~ bout 25%, which equals about 5 tons of carbon dioxide per year. Less ~~ effective, but helpful, actions. Turn off lights and appliances when ~~ not needed. Plant trees. Set the thermostat lower in winter and highe~~ r in summer. Recycle. If the average citizen undertakes all of these ~~ actions, they can reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by about 3%, ~~ which equals ~ just over half a ton of carbon dioxide per year. ~ ~ Become informed and help your family and friends to learn about clima~~ te change. Actively support the government policies you decide are mo~~ st appropriate. ~ ~ ¥ WHAT MIGHT NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS DO? ~ Improve energy efficiency: More efficient cars, appliances, and indus~~ trial systems use less energy, which means that less fuel is burned a~~ nd less carbon dioxide is emitted. Substantial energy efficiency imp~~ rovements can be obtained by replacing individual devices. In the lon~~ ger run, even larger savings may be possible through structural chang~~ es, such as being able to work closer to home or redesigning the way ~~ houses and cities are built. ~ ~ Governments can also support the development and use of energy source~~ s that emit little or no carbon dioxide: Hydro power, solar power and~~ windmills, as well as other "renewable energy" sources, emit no carb~~ on dioxide. Neither does nuclear power. Burning natural gas emits les~~ s carbon dioxide than burning coal or oil. In the future, hydrogen, w~~ hich emits no carbon dioxide when it is burned, may become a practica~~ l fuel. ~ ~ Governments can help us develop ways of capturing and storing carbon ~~ dioxide. Policies can help improve forest and agricultural managemen~~ t practices. Trees remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and stor~~ e it in wood. Methane produced by some agricultural activities, such ~~ as raising cattle and rice farming, can be reduced. ~ ~ Governments can help reduce the impacts of climate change. New variet~~ ies of crops can be developed to grow in changed climates. Aqueducts ~~ can carry water to regions affected by drought. Coastal settlements a~~ nd water supplies can be protected from rising sea level with dikes a~~ nd sea walls. Coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands, are harder to ~~ protect. How might government help do these things? Government regula~~ tion: Government can require desired behaviors (e.g., force auto comp~~ anies to build more efficient cars). An advantage of regulation is th~~ at it specifies the desired outcomes and can force action. However, r~~ egulation can be inflexible and discourage innovation. Prices and mar~~ kets: Higher prices for fossil fuels encourage people to save energy ~~ by promoting energy efficient devices and behavior (e.g., expensive g~~ as prompts companies to make and people to buy more fuel efficient ca~~ rs).~ ~ Government subsidies and taxes can also influence behavior. An advant~~ age of using prices is that they present a constant incentive to inno~~ vate. However, using prices can have undesirable side effects, such a~~ s imposing a relatively larger burden on the poor. Information and ed~~ ucation: People often do not know how to improve efficiency or reduce~~ emissions. Government can provide them with the information they nee~~ d to make better choices. Research and development: Government and in~~ dustry can support research to demonstrate and improve existing techn~~ ology, and to develop new technologies that use less energy or emit n~~ o carbon ~ dioxide (e.g., refrigerators that use less electricity, cheap practic~~ al solar water heaters, and inexpensive solar/hydrogen technology). ~ ~ ¥WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER COUNTRIES?~ The atmosphere covers the entire globe and climate affects everyone. ~~ If abatement strategies are to be effective they will require interna~~ tional cooperation. Until now, developed countries have been the majo~~ r sources of emissions. In the future, large developing countries, su~~ ch as China, will be an increasingly important source of emissions. T~~ hese countries argue that if the world must reduce emissions of carbo~~ n dioxide and other greenhouse gases, the U.S., Europe, and Japan sho~~ uld reduce the most. For years, they argue, these developed countries~~ have been the largest emitters and they have already enjoyed the ass~~ ociated benefits of economic development. While this is true, develop~~ ing countries could also help by doing more to control population gro~~ wth.~ Nodelocation: 320,792,-1 Nodesize: 276,780 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Times, 12 Close A3__what_is_a_climat Module A4__what_is_integrat Title: 4. What is Integrated Assessment? Author: Hadi Dowlatabadi Date: Thu, Jul 30, 1998 8:10 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 568,328 Nodesize: 56,40 Diagstate: 1,51,71,647,602,17 Nodecolor: -13109,-13112,1 Text Te31 Description: INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE~ Hadi Dowlatabadi & M. Granger Morgan ~ (from Science Magazine, March 1993)~ ~ INTRODUCTION~ The consequences of rapid and substantial global climate change could~~ be disastrous. The impact of stringent emis-sion control programs co~~ uld be enormous, and the efficacy of such action is uncertain. This i~~ ssue is especially relevant if abrupt climate change could be trigger~~ ed at a threshold close to the present concentration of greenhouse ga~~ ses.~ ~ The options available for dealing with the climate problem fall into ~~ four, possibly overlapping, categories: 1) actions designed to reduce~~ the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that may lead to climate cha~~ nge; 2) actions to adapt to climate change; 3) actions designed to co~~ ntrol the climate system (geoengineering); and, 4) research undertake~~ n to improve our understanding of human environmental loadings, the c~~ limate system and its interaction with the biosphere.~ ~ If the anticipated impacts of climate change are judged to be unaccep~~ table, the cost of abating greenhouse gas emissions must be borne lon~~ g before we know the actual magnitude and severity of climate change ~~ and its consequences. This is because of the long lag time expected ~~ between the release of GHGs and the time at which the climate system ~~ responds. In addition, we are uncertain about the reversibility of t~~ he new climate, and thus do not know if we could recover to the curre~~ nt climate after finding the changed climate to be unacceptable.~ ~ The climate issue's characteristic of prompt costs and delayed benefi~~ ts has resulted in early policy research being focused on cost effect~~ iveness analyses of various GHG abatement strategies. These models d~~ o not help decision makers identify climate change policy objectives,~~ just the cost of meeting various abatement targets, and the efficacy~~ of different strategies. Concurrently, scientific research has been~~ focused on explorations of the earth's environment if the atmospheri~~ c concentration of GHGs continues to increase. Little effort has bee~~ n expended in exploring the interactions among the various elements o~~ f the climate problem, or in a systematic evaluation of climate stab~~ ilization benefits, or the cost of adapting to a changed climate.~ Integrated Assessment~ ~ Because there is an immediate need for policy decisions on how to pre~~ vent and/or adapt to climate change, and how to allocate scarce funds~~ for climate research, we need to move beyond isolated studies of the~~ various parts of the problem. Analysis frameworks are needed that i~~ ncorporate our knowledge about precursors to, processes of, and conse~~ quences from climate change (1). This framework also needs to repres~~ ent the reliability with which the various pieces of the climate puzz~~ le are understood and be able to propagate uncertainties through the ~~ analysis reflecting them in the conclusions.~ ~ The first serious attempt at integrated assessment was the IMAGE mode~~ l developed in the Netherlands by Rotmans et al. (2). IMAGE has a ri~~ ch description of the physical world and biogeochemical processes. I~~ n IMAGE the Edmonds Reilly model (3), long established as a benchmark~~ for predicting future greenhouse gas emissions, was used to drive th~~ e inputs to the biogeochemical cycle. More recently, IMAGE has becom~~ e one component of ESCAPE a much larger framework of analysis, again ~~ developed by European investigators. ESCAPE contains a great deal of~~ detail, indeed in some cases more detail than can be justified given~~ the low sensitivity of outcomes to some parameter values, and the cu~~ rrent levels of uncertainty. For example, it contains detailed infor~~ mation on energy services delivered to key industrial sectors which c~~ annot be reliably predicted several decades into the future. At the ~~ moment ESCAPE does not include a characterization of uncertainties or~~ the ability to propagate these through the analysis.~ ~ While most economic models have focused on cost effectiveness, at lea~~ st three have incorporated an estimate of benefits to climate stabili~~ zation. These are DICE developed by Nordhaus (4) and CETA developed ~~ by Peck and Teisberg (5). Both of these models use benefits which ar~~ e based on Nordhaus' controversial estimates (6, 7). To be sure, Nord~~ haus has to be commended for establishing this benchmark. However, t~~ he benefits need to be refined to better represent non-market effects~~ and nature's and human societies' ability to adapt to new climate re~~ gimes. Results from both of these models suggest that early abatemen~~ t of CO2 emissions is not cost effective.~ ~ The third cost benefit model is the Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse~~ Effect (PAGE) developed by Hope et al. (8). In this integrated asse~~ ssment, economic activities leading to anthropogenic emissions are no~~ t modeled, but costs of a particular abatement strategy, market damag~~ es due to changed climate, and the cost of adaptive measures are repr~~ esented. Hope et al. have recognized the problem of scientific and e~~ conomic uncertainties and have defined probability distributions for ~~ 80 variables in their model. The absence of a representation of econ~~ omic activity in PAGE means that the impacts of abatement, adaptation~~ , and damages on economic growth cannot be calculated. Results from ~~ PAGE suggest that, despite the uncertainties, the EC should unilatera~~ lly adopt stringent abatement and adaptation programs.~ ~ A number of integrated assessments are underway at various institutio~~ ns in the US. Activities at Battelle's Pacific Northwest Laboratorie~~ s, MIT, and Carnegie Mellon are being loosely coordinated through sup~~ port from the Electric Power Research Institute (9). ~ ~ Two simple integrated assessment frameworks have already been complet~~ ed at Carnegie Mellon (10, 11). The first, ICAM-0 (Integrated Climat~~ e Assessment Model, version 0) casts the problem from the perspective~~ of various key decision makers and their current subjective judgment~~ s about the costs of abating GHG emissions and benefits of climate st~~ abilization. It finds that the subjective perceptions of the differe~~ nt actors are more important in determining policy objectives than sc~~ ientific uncertainty. ICAM-1, a stochastic simulation constructed in~~ the DEMOS modeling environment (12, 13) was specifically designed to~~ capture and propagate parameter and process uncertainties throughout~~ the model and incorporate major feedbacks. Reduced-form models of v~~ arious sophistication are being used to describe the gross features o~~ f disciplinary findings and the reliability of observations. Where th~~ ese have not been available, for example in estimates of non-market d~~ amages from changed climate, expert subjective judgment has been inco~~ rporated. Given, the emphasis on uncertainties ICAM-1 was developed ~~ using a simple philosophy. Precision is shunned where uncertainty wo~~ uld render detail unresolvable through time. ~ ~ ICAM-1, which divides the world into developed and developing regions~~ and uses a single monetary metric (%GDP) for costs and benefits, is ~~ unable to identify unambiguously a dominant abatement schedule among ~~ the choices ranging from no abatement to limiting CO2 emissions to 50~~ % of 1990 levels. This is because of the significant uncertainties, ~~ particularly in the estimated benefits for stabilizing climate - mirr~~ oring the result found in ICAM-0. Even if these uncertainties could ~~ be eliminated, a single impact metric would not be adequate for resol~~ ving the concerns of different actors. Future versions of ICAM will ~~ contain multiple impact metrics. ~ ~ DEALING WITH LARGE MODELS~ In an ideal world, where computers are infinitely fast and cheap, an ~~ integrated assessment would incorporate the most detailed available r~~ epresentations of each element of the climate problem. It would inco~~ rporate a Calculable General Equilibrium model of the world economy, ~~ 3-D models of atmospheric chemistry and dispersal, coupled ocean-atmo~~ sphere Global Circulation Model, general coupled ecological systems m~~ odels, and models of social preferences and dynamics. Each of these ~~ represents the holy grail of a particular discipline. To date, none ~~ has been attained with sufficient satisfaction. All are too large fo~~ r conventional uncertainty analysis using today's computation engines~~ . It will probably never be appropriate to incorporate such models d~~ irectly in an integrated assessment framework. However, as the quali~~ ty of these large models improves, integrated assessments should try ~~ to capture their most salient features, in reduced-form or meta-model~~ s.~ ~ CLOSING THE LOOP~ While the arguments for integrated assessment are intellectually com~~ pelling, current understanding of the natural and social science of t~~ he climate problem is so incomplete that today it is not possible to ~~ build traditional analytical models that incorporate all the elements~~ , processes, and feedbacks that are likely to be important. Faced wi~~ th similar problems in the past, the policy research community has ty~~ pically modeled what was understood and waved their hands at the rest~~ . The result has often been that the policy discussion has focused o~~ n what we know, rather than what is important. To avoid this difficu~~ lty in the climate problem it will be necessary to evolve a new class~~ of policy models which allow an integration of subjective expert jud~~ gment about poorly understood portions of the problem with formal ana~~ lytical treatments of the well understood portions of the problem. P~~ reliminary work on such hybrid models that close the loop on the clim~~ ate problem is under way at several institutions. ~ ~ EVALUATING POLICY OPTIONS~ The design of an integrated assessment should start with the identifi~~ cation of outcomes that matter to key policy makers - not with the sc~~ ience. Different outcome measures will be important to different act~~ ors. With each actor's decision rule and an integrated assessment mo~~ del that incorporate the relevant science, we can choose among altern~~ ative policy objectives. For example an environmentalist in the deve~~ loped world, using the precautionary principle (i.e., minimize worst ~~ possible outcome), might identify stringent reduction in GHG emission~~ s as the appropriate policy objective. An industrialist, making deci~~ sions on the basis of expected values, might identify a per capita em~~ ission limit as the appropriate policy objective (10). ~ ~ When a policy objective has been identified as desirable, sensitivity~~ analysis of the integrated model can identify the most effective pol~~ icy strategy for meeting that objective. For example, the environmen~~ talist might identify population control as the strategy with the gre~~ atest potential for achieving their objective. The industrialist mig~~ ht find improvement in energy efficiency as the strategy with the gre~~ atest potential. Once an integrated framework is able to simulate th~~ ese preferences among key actors it should become possible to systema~~ tically explore opportunities for tradeoff and cooperation among key ~~ actors. ~ ~ SETTING RESEARCH PRIORITIES~ At Times New Roman uncertainty in an integrated assessment model will~~ make policy choice ambiguous. In this case, uncertainty analysis of~~ the model can identify key areas where better information is needed.~~ Repeated runs of the CETA model, the Global-2100 model (from which ~~ CETA was derived), and ICAM-1 have already been used to estimate the ~~ value of further refining information on key parameters within their ~~ representation of the climate problem (11, 14, 15). For example, in ~~ our work in ICAM-1, we find that the choice of policy objective using~~ an expected value decision rule is surprisingly insensitive to the t~~ ime constant of atmospheric CO2 turnover over a wide range of values.~~ If this result holds up it would suggest that further refinement of~~ the carbon cycle while scientifically important is not important for~~ the specific policy formulations now being modeled in ICAM-1.~ ~ Research prioritization cannot be based on value of information alone~~ . Expert judgment of returns to policy motivated research investment~~ are also needed. Work to combine these two is at the frontier of cu~~ rrent policy modeling practice and is just now beginning.~ ~ CONCLUDING REMARKS~ The challenge of performing integrated assessment is enormous. First~~ , there is the challenge of casting the problem from the perspective ~~ of a variety of key decision makers. Second, there is the challenge ~~ of information management, development of suitable reduced-form repre~~ sentations of key elements of the climate problem, and the successful~~ incorporation and parametric analysis of expert judgments. Third, t~~ here is the challenge of developing operational methods for estimatin~~ g value of information and setting research priorities. Finally, the~~ re is an institutional/political challenge of using integrated assess~~ ments to: evaluate various policy objectives; identify better policy ~~ strategies for meeting these objectives; clarify opportunities for co~~ operation and tradeoffs between various key actors; and, set prioriti~~ es in policy motivated research. ~ ~ The challenge is daunting. But, without integrated assessment, the c~~ osts of ad hoc resolution of questions regarding policy objectives an~~ d strategies, and of the consequences of inefficient allocation of po~~ licy motivated research, may reach hundreds of billions of dollars.~ ~ REFERENCES AND NOTES:~ 1. E. S. Rubin, L. B. Lave, M. G. Morgan, Issues in Science and Techn~~ ology Winter 1991-2, 47 (1992).~ 2. J. Rotmans, IMAGE: An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Ef~~ fect (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dorcrecht / Boston / London, 1990).~~ ~ 3. J. A. Edmonds, J. M. Reilly, The Energy Journal 4, 21 (1984).~ 4. W. D. Nordhaus, Science 258, 1315 (1992).~ 5. S. C. Peck, T. J. Teisberg, Electric Power Research Institute, Cos~~ t Benefit Analysis and Climate Change (1992).~ 6. W. D. Nordhaus, Amer Econ Rev 81, 146 (1991).~ 7. W. D. Nordhaus, Econ. J. 101, 920 (1991).~ 8. C. W. Hope, J. Anderson, P. Wenman, Energy Policy 21, in press (19~~ 93).~ 9. EPRI, Electric Power Research Institute, Global Climate Change: Cu~~ rrent Issues (1991).~ 10. L. B. Lave, "Scenarios to Explore Greenhouse Decisions," First No~~ rdic Inter-Disciplinary Research Conference on the Greenhouse Effect ~~ Copenhagen, 1991); L. B. Lave, H. Dowlatabadi, EPP, Carnegie Mellon U~~ niversity, Climate Change Policy: The Effects of Personal Beliefs and~~ Scientific Uncertainty (1992). ~ 11. H. Dowlatabadi, G. Morgan, Energy Policy 21, in press (1993).~ 12. M. Henrion, M. G. Morgan, Risk Analysis 5, 195 (1985).~ 13. M. G. Morgan, M. Henrion, Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing With Un~~ certainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis (Cambridge Univers~~ ity Press, New York, 1990).~ 14. S. C. Peck, T. J. Teisberg, Electric Power Research Institute, Gl~~ obal Warming Uncertainties and the Value of Information: An Analysis ~~ Using CETA (1992).~ 15. A. S. Manne, R. G. Richels, Buying Greenhouse Insurance - the Eco~~ nomic Costs of CO2 Emission Limits (MIT Press, Boston, MA, 1992).~ 16. We thank P. Fischbeck, M. Henrion, L. Lave, for their comments in~~ the preparation of the manuscript. The research was supported by a g~~ rant from the National Science Foundation (SES-9022738). Support for ~~ methodological development was provided under a contract from the Ele~~ ctric Power Research Institute (RP 3236).~ ~ Nodelocation: 312,1528,-1 Nodesize: 304,1504 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Times, 12 Close A4__what_is_integrat Text Te36 Description: ______________WHICH ASPECTS OF THESE ISSUES ARE COVERED I~~ N THIS MODEL?_____________~ 1. CLIMATE CHANGE~ ¥ Demographic change - fertility, mortality, and their interaction~~ s with economy~ ¥ Economic growth - a random growth model with specified targ~~ et growth rates~ ¥ Regional Emissions? - the world is divided into 12 regions~ ¥ Energy use by Sector? - no sectors, but four fuels (coal, oil, gas,~~ & non-fossil) ~ ¥ Landuse? - no~ ~ 2: IMPACTS?~ ¥ On nutrition? - no~ ¥ On ecosystems? - on vegetation cover only, not animals~ ¥ On human health? - impacts of urban air pollution and wealth o~~ nly~ ¥ On Sea level rise? - land inundated, people at risk, and cost~~ ~ ~ 3: POLICIES~ ¥ Through markets? - carbon taxes~ ¥ Through R&D? - indirectly, by increasing technical learn~~ ing~ ¥ Through tech transfer? - can allow or disallow convergent energy ef~~ ficiency~ ¥ Through adaptation - can enhance capacity to detect and adapt t~~ o climate change~ ¥ By Geo-engineering - not modeled here (see ICAM 1) Nodelocation: 320,552,-1 Nodesize: 300,172 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: -1,-6554,-26215 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 12 Close An_introduction_to_c Text Te30 Description: MENTAL HEALTH WARNING: ~ Nodelocation: 208,104,0 Nodesize: 200,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: 65535,19661,19661 Nodefont: Times New Roman, 19 Text Te6 Description: Thoughtless use of models is harmful to your intellect. ~~ The climate problem is highly uncertain. No specific numbers should ~~ be believed. Models can be used to develop insights about the nature~~ of the problem, and our ability to address them. You can develop su~~ ch insights by exploring the structure of the problem as displayed in~~ the user interface and through exercising the model by exploring dif~~ ferent model structures and parameter values. Nodelocation: 208,168,-1 Nodesize: 200,56 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: 65535,52425,39321 Nodefont: Times, 12 Text A_________icam_3_03_ Title: - ICAM 3-03~ November 1 1999 Description: ICAM 3-1 Nodelocation: 240,24 Nodesize: 92,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Times New Roman, 24 Text Te37 Description: To Proceed Double Click Below Nodelocation: 264,248,-1 Nodesize: 192,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Arial, 20 Text Te38 Description: (November 29 1999) Nodelocation: 208,56,-1 Nodesize: 68,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0 Close Gcc