{ From user Max Henrion, Model Plane_catching_with_ at Thu 09-Oct-08 7:12 AM~~ } Softwareversion 4.1.1 { System Variables with non-default values: } Samplesize := 2000 Typechecking := 1 Checking := 1 Showundef := 0 Saveoptions := 2 Savevalues := 0 {!40000|Graph_gridcolor := 52992,52992,52992} {!40000|Graph_framecolor := 20224,20224,20224} {!40000|Att_contlinestyle Graph_cdf_valdim: 1} {!40000|Att_areafill Graph_cdf_valdim: 1} Model Plane_catching_with_ Title: Plane catching with EVIU Description: A simple model to assess what time I should leave my home~~ to catch a plane, with uncertain driving time, walking from parking ~~ to gate (including security), and how long I need to be at the gate a~~ head of scheduled departure time. It uses a loss model based on minut~~ es, assuming I value each extra minute snoozing in bed and set the lo~~ ss if I miss the plane to 400 of those minutes.~ ~ It illustrates the EVIU (expected value of including uncertainty) i.e~~ . the difference in expected value if I make a decision to minimize e~~ xpected loss instead of decision to minimize time ignoring uncertaint~~ y (assuming each distribution is fixed at its mid value). For more de~~ tails see "The Value of Knowing How Little You Know", Max Henrion, P~~ hD Dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, 1982. Author: Max Henrion Date: Sun, Jun 24, 2007 7:29 PM Saveauthor: Max Henrion Savedate: Thu 09-Oct-08 7:12 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Diagstate: 1,5,9,399,496,17 Windstate: 2,657,520,486,308 Fontstyle: Arial, 15 Fileinfo: 0,Model Plane_catching_with_,2,2,0,0,C:\Documents and Settin~~ gs\Max Henrion\My Documents\Ana intro\Ana demos\EVIU\EVIU plane catch~~ ing 3.ANA Module Eviu_details Title: EVIU details Author: Max Henrion Date: Tue, Jun 26, 2007 12:26 AM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 80,432,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,0,1,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,413,11,315,299,17 Variable Prob_of_missing_plan Title: Prob of missing plane Description: The probability that I will miss the plane. Definition: Probability(Time_i_leave_home < Time_from_home_to_g1)~ Nodelocation: 216,40,1 Nodesize: 52,28 Windstate: 2,632,421,476,224 Valuestate: 2,413,329,688,493,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Prob_of_missing_pla1 Variable Eviu Title: EVIU Units: mins Description: The expected value of including uncertainty, i.e. the inc~~ rease in expected value from selecting the decision that maximizes ex~~ pected value (including uncertainty) instead of making the "optimal" ~~ decision that maximizes value ignoring uncertainty. Definition: Cost[Time_i_leave_home = Best_time_to_min_exp] - Cost[Time~~ _i_leave_home = Best_time_ignoring_u] Nodelocation: 216,104,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,515,414 Valuestate: 2,883,302,463,459,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Eviu1 Reformval: [Time_i_leave_home,Undefined,Undefined,Undefined,1] Decision Best_time_ignoring_u Title: Best time ignoring uncertainty Units: mins Description: The best time to leave if we ignore uncertainty -- minimi~~ zing deterministic cost. Definition: ArgMin(Mid(Cost), Time_i_leave_home) Nodelocation: 64,104,1 Nodesize: 48,31 Valuestate: 2,104,114,416,303,1,MIDM Decision Best_time_to_min_exp Title: Best time to min expected loss Units: mins Description: The best time to leave to minimizing expected loss Definition: ArgMin(Mean(Cost), Time_i_leave_home) Nodelocation: 64,192,1 Nodesize: 48,40 Index View1 Title: View Definition: ['Cost ignoring uncertainty','Decision ignoring uncertaint~~ y','Expected cost','Decision minimizing expected cost'] Nodelocation: 216,248,1 Nodesize: 48,24 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Cost ignoring uncertainty','Decision ig~~ noring uncertainty','Expected cost','Decision minimizing expected cos~~ t']} Variable Eviu_vs_ev Title: EVIU vs EV Definition: Table(View1)(Mid(Cost), IF Best_time_ignoring_u > Time_i_l~~ eave_home THEN INF ELSE 0, Mean(Cost), IF Best_time_to_min_exp > Time~~ _i_leave_home THEN INF ELSE 0) Nodelocation: 216,192,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,413,327,688,492,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Eviu_vs_ev1 Reformval: [Time_i_leave_home,View1] Close Eviu_details Variable Loss_if_miss_the_pla Title: Loss if miss the plane Units: mins Description: The loss (in minutes equivalent) of missing this plane an~~ d having to take the next one, or just cancelling the trip. Definition: 400 Nodelocation: 324,224,1 Nodesize: 52,24 Objective Cost Title: Cost Units: minutes Description: The total cost (in minutes) including loss of time snoozi~~ ng before leaving home and loss if I miss the plane. Definition: Time_from_home_to_g1 - Time_i_leave_home~ + IF Time_i_leave_home > Time_from_home_to_g1 ~ THEN Loss_if_miss_the_pla ELSE 0 Nodelocation: 324,144,1 Nodesize: 48,32 Windstate: 2,532,72,476,224 Valuestate: 2,369,17,688,496,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Cost1 Graphsetup: {!40000|Att_graphindexrange Time_to_leave_before:1,,0,,,,,~~ 40}~ {!40000|Att_contlinestyle Graph_primary_valdim:1} Variable Time_from_home_to_g1 Title: Time from home to gate Units: mins Description: Total time it takes from leaving home to plane departing.~~ Definition: Time_to_drive_to_air + Time_from_parking_to + Gate_time_be~~ fore_dep Nodelocation: 196,144,1 Nodesize: 52,32 Windstate: 2,660,47,476,224 Valuestate: 2,412,10,688,283,1,PDFP Aliases: Formnode Time_from_home_to_ga Graphsetup: Distresol:100~ {!40000|Att_areafill Graph_pdf_valdim:1}~ Diststeps:1~ {!40000|Att_contlinestyle Graph_pdf_valdim:6}~ {!40000|Graph_filltransparen:0} Decision Time_i_leave_home Title: Time I leave home before plane departure Units: minutes Description: The time at which I decide to leave home in minutes befor~~ e scheduled plane departure. Definition: [30,35,40,55,60,65,70,75,80,85,90,95,100,100.01,105,110,11~~ 5,120,125,130,135,140,145,150,155,160] Nodelocation: 196,65,1 Nodesize: 52,40 Windstate: 2,375,69,539,426 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: [30,35,40,55,60,65,70,75,80,85,90,95,100,100.01~~ ,105,110,115,120,125,130,135,140,145,150,155,160]} Chance Time_to_drive_to_air Title: Time to drive to airport Definition: Lognormal( 40, 1.3 ) Nodelocation: 68,64,1 Nodesize: 52,32 Windstate: 2,640,192,476,224 Chance Time_from_parking_to Title: Time from parking to gate Definition: Lognormal( 30, 1.3 ) Nodelocation: 68,144,1 Nodesize: 52,32 Windstate: 2,275,52,476,224 Chance Gate_time_before_dep Title: Gate time before departure Units: min Definition: Triangular( 20, 30, 40 ) Nodelocation: 68,224,1 Nodesize: 52,32 Formnode Cost1 Title: Cost Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 248,368,1 Nodesize: 108,13 Nodeinfo: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72 Original: Cost Formnode Time_from_home_to_ga Title: Time from home to gate Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 196,304,1 Nodesize: 160,13 Nodeinfo: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72 Original: Time_from_home_to_g1 Formnode Prob_of_missing_pla1 Title: Prob of missing plane Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 220,336,1 Nodesize: 136,13 Nodeinfo: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72 Original: Prob_of_missing_plan Formnode Eviu1 Title: EVIU Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 260,448,1 Nodesize: 96,13 Nodeinfo: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72 Original: Eviu Formnode Eviu_vs_ev1 Title: EVIU vs EV Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 256,416,1 Nodesize: 100,13 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,0,72,0,1 Original: Eviu_vs_ev Text Te1 Description: Results Nodelocation: 196,372,-1 Nodesize: 180,100 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0, Nodecolor: 65535,65535,65535 Nodefont: Arial Black, 13 Close Plane_catching_with_