{ From user Lonnie, Model Marketmodel1 at Thu, Mar 20, 2008 10:59 AM}~~ Softwareversion 4.1.0 { System Variables with non-default values: } Time := Sequence( Start_year, Start_year+max(Lifetime), 1 ) Samplesize := 200 Typechecking := 1 Checking := 1 Showundef := 0 Saveoptions := 2 Savevalues := 0 Allwarnings := 0 Model Marketmodel1 Title: Market Model Description: This model explores a market for a new product, and the d~~ ecisions involved.~ ~ Assumptions: an oligopolistic market (in which we are neither a price~~ giver nor a price taker). ~ The average price set by our competitors is uncertain. Our Price Str~~ ategy is to set a price relative to our Competitors' Price (e.g. abov~~ e or below).~ Market Share is determined by our advertising strategy, and our prici~~ ng strategy.~ The Average Market Price is an average of Competitors' Price and Our ~~ Price, weighted by Market Share.~ Average Market Price is then used to determine the maximum (mature) M~~ arket Size.~ Market Size varies according to the standard Product Lifetime Cycle m~~ odel, with Growth, Mature, and Decline phases.~ Note that all the aggregate quantities in this model (e.g. Sales, Cos~~ t, Revenue) are dynamic-- modeled as arrays indexed by year. Author: George Ferguson Date: Tue, Aug 8, 1995 4:32 PM Saveauthor: Lonnie Savedate: Thu, Mar 20, 2008 10:59 AM Defaultsize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,7,4,610,481,17 Fontstyle: Helvetica, 12 Fileinfo: 0,Model Marketmodel1,2,2,0,0,W:\Training\User Group Webinars~~ \Tornado Charts.ANA Pagesetup: (00030000004800480000000002DA0228FFE1FFE202F902460347052803~~ FC00020000004800480000000002DA022800010000006400000001000101010000000~~ 1270F0001000100000000000000000000000068080019019000000000000000000000~~ 00000000000100000000000000000000000000000000) Module Market_model Title: Model details Description: This model explores a market for a new product, and the d~~ ecisions involved.~ ~ Assumptions: an oligopolistic market (in which we are neither a price~~ giver nor a price taker). ~ The Average price set by our competitors is uncertain. Our Price Str~~ ategy is to set a price relative to our Competitors' Price (e.g. abov~~ e or below).~ Market Share is determined by our advertising strategy, and our prici~~ ng strategy.~ The Average Market Price is an average of Competitors' Price and Our ~~ Price, weighted by Market Share.~ Average Market Price is then used to determine the maximum (mature) M~~ arket Size.~ Market Size varies according to the standard Product Lifetime Cycle m~~ odel, with Growth, Mature, and Decline phases.~ Note that all the aggregate quantities in this model (e.g. Sales, Cos~~ t, Revenue) are dynamic--~ they are modeled as arrays indexed by year. Author: George Ferguson Date: Sat, Sep 23, 1995 11:04 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 152,320,1 Nodesize: 88,16 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,,1, Diagstate: 1,57,46,512,324,17 Nodecolor: 19661,-31887,-1 Fontstyle: Helvetica, 16 Nodefont: Helvetica, 14 Decision Price Title: Price Description: Relative Price is modeled as a decision to price our prod~~ uct relative to the average Competitions' Price for similar products.~~ ~ A sequence of values is used, where each value represents Our Price/C~~ ompetitions' Price. Definition: Choice(Rel_pr1,3) Nodelocation: 56,104,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,322,280 Defnstate: 1,-434,82,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,169,132,283,190,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias Price_strategy, Formnode Relative_price Nodecolor: 1,65535,49152 Decision Marketing_budget Title: Marketing budget Units: $/yr Description: Annual marketing budget Definition: Choice(Marketing_budget_lev,0) Nodelocation: 56,176,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,65,63 Defnstate: 1,70,84,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,104,114,338,283,0,MIDM Aliases: Alias Marketing_budget1, Alias Advertising_spending, Formnode~~ Additional_advertisi Nodecolor: 1,65535,49152 Module Sales_revenue1 Title: Sales revenue Description: This module models Sales as a function of the Product Lif~~ etime Cycle, Market Size, and Market Share.~ Sales is dynamic--an array indexed by year.~ ~ Author: George Ferguson Date: Tue, Aug 8, 1995 7:29 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 176,105,1 Nodesize: 48,25 Diagstate: 1,96,115,478,368,17 Variable Sales_units Title: Sales units Units: units Description: Number of units sold each year.~ It is the product of Market Share and Market Size. Definition: Market_share1 * Market_size_by_year Nodelocation: 416,216,1 Nodesize: 40,28 Windstate: 1,202,256 Valuestate: 1,72,82,463,369,1,MIDM Aliases: Alias Sales2 Reformval: [Time,Marketing_budget_lev] Chance Price_elasticity Title: Price elasticity Description: Th elasticity of market share with respect to relative pr~~ ice, defined as the percentage change in market share due to a one pe~~ rcent increase in price. An elasticity of -1 implies that 1% increas~~ e in relative price will decrease market share by 1%. Definition: Triangular( -3, -2, -1 ) Nodelocation: 56,256,1 Nodesize: 48,32 Windstate: 1,183,179 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Marketing_effectiven Title: Marketing effectiveness Units: share/$ Description: This is the effectiveness of marketing in increasing mark~~ et share, expressed as the percent increase in market share per perce~~ nt increase in marketing budget.~ Definition: Triangular( 0.2, .7, 1.3 ) Nodelocation: 176,136,1 Nodesize: 56,32 Windstate: 1,56,59 Variable Market_share1 Title: Market share Description: Market Share Demand is a dynamic quantity related to the ~~ relative demand for our product in the marketplace. ~ For modeling purposes, this value is allowed to exceed the actual Mar~~ ket Share range of zero to one, so that the dynamic aspects of the de~~ mand can be captured (the Market Share node performs this conversion ~~ to actual market share).~ Market Share Demand varies with time. It starts at an initial value ~~ determined by Initial Market Share Demand, and grows only during the ~~ Growth portion of the Product Lifetime Cycle. The amount of growth i~~ s determined by the amount of Advertising and the Effectiveness of Ad~~ vertising.~ ~ The Dynamic function is used to model this change in Market Share, wi~~ th its initial value being set to the Initial Market Share. Future v~~ alues are the sum of the value in the previous time period and the re~~ sult of the "If " function multiplier (used to increase Market Share ~~ during the Growth years only), and Max functions used to constrain th~~ e maximum Market Share Demand gain in any one period, and the maximum~~ total Market Share Demand gain which is allowed.~ Definition: Using x:= Initial_market_share * (Marketing_budget/Base_ma~~ rketing_budge)^Marketing_effectiven~ DO x/(1+x) Nodelocation: 296,216,1 Nodesize: 40,32 Windstate: 1,386,32 Valuestate: 1,152,44,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Marketing_budget_lev,Rel_pr1] Chance Nominal_market_share Title: Nominal market share Description: The fraction of the buyers who will buy our product in ye~~ ar 1, with zero marketing budget, and our price is the same as the co~~ mpetition's. Definition: Beta( 8, 20, 0, 1 ) Nodelocation: 56,184,1 Nodesize: 52,34 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,1,PDFP Aliases: Formnode Market_share_at_same Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:5~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:-0.2~ Xmaximum:0.6~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:5~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Variable Initial_market_share Title: Initial market share Description: The initial fractional market share of our product, if we~~ respond to demand. ~ This is calculated by offsetting the Nominal Market Share by a value ~~ equal to the product of:~ our relative deviation from the Competition's Price (i.e. Rel_pr ~~ - 1) ~ and ~ the Price Elasticity of Market Share. ~ Definition: Nominal_market_share* Price ^ Price_elasticity Nodelocation: 176,216,1 Nodesize: 40,32 Windstate: 1,88,98 Valuestate: 1,266,108,416,303,1,CONF Variable Sales_revenue Title: Sales revenue Definition: (Our_price*Sales_units) Nodelocation: 416,128,1 Nodesize: 40,28 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Marketing_budget_lev] Variable Competitor_price Title: Competitor price Units: $/unit Description: This is the average price that the competition is chargin~~ g. Definition: 1.5K Nodelocation: 176,32,1 Nodesize: 48,28 Windstate: 1,175,355 Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Competition_s_price Alias Price_strategy Title: Price Strategy Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 64,96,1 Nodesize: 48,28 Original: Price Variable Our_price Title: Our price Units: $ Description: Our Price is determined by the product of our Relative Pr~~ ice and the Competition's price. Definition: Price*Competitor_price Nodelocation: 296,96,1 Nodesize: 44,28 Valuestate: 1,110,144,242,190,0,MIDM Alias Marketing_budget1 Title: Marketing budget Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 176,304,1 Nodesize: 44,28 Nodecolor: 1,65535,49152 Original: Marketing_budget Variable Base_marketing_budge Title: Base marketing budget Units: $/year Description: Nominal marketing budget projected to win nominal market ~~ share. Definition: 40M Nodelocation: 296,304,0 Nodesize: 44,32 Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0 Valuestate: 1,280,290,416,303,0,MIDM Close Sales_revenue1 Module Market_size1 Title: Market size Author: henrion Date: Wed, Jun 02, 1999 5:32 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 176,32,1 Nodesize: 48,25 Diagstate: 1,54,84,430,257,17 Fontstyle: Helvetica, 15 Variable Start_year Title: Start year Units: Year Description: Start year, during which product is launched Definition: 2000 Nodelocation: 56,192,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,200,210,416,303,0,MIDM Variable Growth_phase Title: Growth phase Units: years Description: The number of years that the Growth phase lasts. Definition: 3 Nodelocation: 56,136,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Aliases: Formnode Growth_years Variable Mature_phase Title: Mature phase Units: years Description: This is the number of years that the mature phase (maximu~~ m market size) lasts. Definition: 3 Nodelocation: 56,88,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Aliases: Formnode Mature_years Variable Decline_phase Title: Decline phase Units: years Description: The number of years that the Decline phase lasts. Definition: 3 Nodelocation: 56,40,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Aliases: Formnode Decline_years Variable Lifetime Title: Product lifetime Units: years Description: The total lifetime for the Product Lifetime Cycle is the ~~ sum of the values for Growth Years, Mature Years, and Decline Years.~ ~ Lifetime is used to set the value for the system Time variable, which~~ determines the number of years the simulation runs. Definition: ((Growth_phase+Mature_phase)+Decline_phase) Nodelocation: 160,88,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,323,170 Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,MIDM Chance Mature_market_size Title: Mature market size Units: #/yr Description: This is the nominal size of the Mature Market, when the A~~ verage Price charged for the product in the market place is the same ~~ as the Reference Price. Definition: Normal( 500K, 120K ) Nodelocation: 248,32,1 Nodesize: 52,24 Windstate: 1,75,325 Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,1,PDFP Aliases: Formnode Nominal_market_size Variable Market_size_by_year Title: Market size by year Units: units Description: The overall nominal market size in number of units by yea~~ r.~ ~ The market Size varies over the Product lifecycle:~ During the Growth phase, the sales increase linearly from zero to the~~ value for Maximum Sales.~ During the Mature phase, the sales remain fixed at Mature Market Size~~ .~ During the Decline phase, the sales decrease linearly from Maximum Sa~~ les to zero. Definition: Mature_market_size*~ (IF Year_from_start < Growth_phase ~ THEN Year_from_start/Growth_phase~ ELSE IF Year_from_start > (Lifetime - Decline_phase) ~ THEN (Lifetime-Year_from_start)/Decline_phase~ ELSE 1) Nodelocation: 336,88,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,323,213 Valuestate: 1,193,237,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Marketing_budget_lev] Variable Year_from_start Title: Year from start Units: Year Description: Number of years from start year. Definition: Time - Start_year Nodelocation: 224,192,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Close Market_size1 Module Costs Title: Costs Description: This module contains and calculates the factors which con~~ tribute to cost.~ Cost is dynamic-- an array indexed by year. Author: George Ferguson Date: Tue, Aug 22, 1995 9:13 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 176,176,1 Nodesize: 48,25 Diagstate: 1,149,217,382,283,17 Variable Unit_cst Title: Unit Cost Units: $/unit Description: This is the cost of producing one unit of our product. Definition: 300 Nodelocation: 64,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Windstate: 1,211,259 Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Unit_cost Balloonhelp: miaouw Alias Advertising_spending Title: Advertising Spending Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 64,232,1 Nodesize: 44,24 Original: Marketing_budget Alias Sales2 Title: Sales Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 64,32 Nodesize: 44,20 Original: Sales_units Variable Var_cost Title: Variable Cost Description: The variable cost is production cost, which is Unit Cost ~~ times Sales.~ This quantity is dynamic-- an array indexed by year. Definition: (Unit_cst*Sales_units) Nodelocation: 184,80 Nodesize: 44,20 Reformval: [Time,Time] Variable Total_cost_by_year Title: Total cost by year Description: Cost varies by year, and is modeled as the sum of Variabl~~ e Cost, Fixed Cost, and (during Growth Phase years) spending due to A~~ dvertising Strategy.~ This quantity is dynamic-- an array indexed by year. Definition: Fixed_cost + Var_cost + Marketing_budget Nodelocation: 304,152,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,104,114,416,303,1,MIDM Reformval: [Time,Time] Variable Fixed_cost Title: Fixed Cost Units: $ Description: The Dynamic function is used to model this value, which i~~ s equal to the Startup Cost plus Advertising Ante in the first year, ~~ and the Yearly Fixed Cost plus Advertising Ante in all subsequent yea~~ rs. Definition: IF Year_from_start=0 THEN Startup_cost ELSE Yearly_fixed_~~ cost Nodelocation: 184,152,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 1,514,374 Valuestate: 1,56,66,530,545,0,MIDM Variable Startup_cost Title: Startup Cost Units: $ Description: This is the amount of fixed cost in the first year, which~~ includes such categories as R&D, tooling and construction, etc. Definition: 20M Nodelocation: 64,128 Nodesize: 44,20 Aliases: Formnode Startup_cost1 Variable Yearly_fixed_cost Title: Yearly Fixed Cost Units: $/yr Description: This is the fixed cost in the years after the first, whic~~ h is modeled as being constant. This includes such categories as ren~~ t, heating, salaries, etc. Definition: 5M Nodelocation: 64,176,1 Nodesize: 48,20 Aliases: Formnode Yearly_fixed_cost1 Balloonhelp: That part of the annual cost of production that does not~~ depend on the number of units manufactured. Close Costs Objective Net_present_value Title: Net Present Value Units: $ Description: This is the Present Value of the cash flows calculated by~~ this model.~ Future cash flows are discounted by the discount rate to calculate an~~ equivalent present value for these flows. Definition: npv(Discount_rate1,Net_income,Time) Nodelocation: 400,104,1 Nodesize: 44,32 Windstate: 1,152,162 Valuestate: 2,117,57,451,362,0,MEAN Aliases: Formnode Net_present_value1, Alias Net_present_value2 Nodecolor: -1,19661,-26763 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:12~ Diststeps:0~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:0~ Xmaximum:125M~ Yminimum:-200M~ Ymaximum:200M~ Zminimum:0.6~ Zmaximum:1.6~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:1~ Includeyzero:1~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~ Probindex:[0.05,0.25,0.5,0.75,0.95]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 6 Reformval: [Rel_pr1,Mature_phase] Numberformat: 1,D,4,2,0,1 Variable Discount_rate1 Title: Discount rate Units: %/yr Description: This is the amount that future cash flows are discounted~~ . This factor is set by the author according to her beliefs regardin~~ g the cost of funds, and what return she could get from available alt~~ ernative investments. Definition: 0.15 Nodelocation: 400,32,1 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,269,326 Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,0,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Discount_rate Numberformat: 1,%,4,0,0,0 Variable Cash_flow Title: Cash Flow Units: $ Description: This summarizes the cash flow over time for the various s~~ cenarios. Definition: Table(Cashflow_category)(~ Sales_revenue,Total_cost_by_year,Net_income) Nodelocation: 288,104,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Defnstate: 1,462,87,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,172,34,764,374,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Cash_flow_over_time1 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:4~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:4~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Baroverlap:0~ Linestyle:10~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:0~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:0~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:2000~ Xmaximum:2009~ Yminimum:-100M~ Ymaximum:300M~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:3~ Xintervals:10~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0]~ Probindex:[5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%]~ Fontstyle: Arial, 2 Reformdef: [Self,Cashflow_category] Reformval: [Time,Cashflow_category] Variable Net_income Title: Net Income Units: $ Description: Annual net income over the product's life cycle. Definition: Sales_revenue - Total_cost_by_year Nodelocation: 288,104,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 1,81,322,648,287,1,MEAN Reformval: [Time,Rel_pr1] Variable Net_present_value_im Title: Importance to NPV Definition: Abs( RankCorrel( Net_present_value_in, Net_present_value )~~ ) Nodelocation: 400,176,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,111,127,668,389,1,MIDM Aliases: Formnode Net_present_value_i1 Nodecolor: 65535,39321,56799 Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~ Distresol:10~ Diststeps:1~ Cdfresol:5~ Cdfsteps:1~ Symbolsize:6~ Linestyle:1~ Frame:1~ Grid:1~ Ticks:1~ Mesh:1~ Scales:1~ Rotation:45~ Tilt:0~ Depth:70~ Frameauto:1~ Showkey:1~ Xminimum:1~ Xmaximum:6~ Yminimum:0~ Ymaximum:1~ Zminimum:1~ Zmaximum:1~ Xintervals:0~ Yintervals:0~ Includexzero:0~ Includeyzero:0~ Includezzero:0~ Statsselect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0 ]~ Probindex:[0.05, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.95 ]~ {!40000|Att_catlinestyle Graph_primary_valdim:9}~ Att__barorigin Net_present_value_im:~ {!40000|Flip:8}~ {!40000|Att_stackedbar Graph_primary_valdim:0}~ Baroverlap:0 Reformval: [Net_present_value_in,Undefined] Module Indexes Title: Indexes Author: Administrator Date: Wed, Oct 14, 1998 5:00 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 176,248,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,76,44,581,204,17 Nodecolor: 19661,48336,65535 Index Cashflow_category Title: Cashflow category Description: These are the labels for the cash flow lines. Definition: ['Revenue','Cost','Net'] Nodelocation: 104,64,1 Nodesize: 52,24 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Revenue','Cost','Net']} Variable Net_present_value_in Title: Net Present Value Inputs Definition: [ Price_elasticity, Marketing_effectiven, Nominal_market_s~~ hare, Mature_market_size ] Indexvals: ['Price elasticity','Marketing effectiveness','Nominal mark~~ et share','Mature market size'] Nodelocation: 104,128,1 Nodesize: 56,24 Defnstate: 2,431,25,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,285,258,416,303,1,MIDM {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: [Price_elasticity,Marketing_effectiven,Nominal_market_share~~ ,Mature_market_size]} Close Indexes Close Market_model Formnode Discount_rate Title: Discount Rate Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 413,214,1 Nodesize: 122,18 Original: Discount_rate1 Formnode Growth_years Title: Growth Years Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 152,184,0 Nodesize: 132,20 Original: Growth_phase Formnode Mature_years Title: Mature Years Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 152,208,0 Nodesize: 132,20 Original: Mature_phase Formnode Decline_years Title: Decline Years Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 152,232,0 Nodesize: 132,20 Original: Decline_phase Formnode Nominal_market_size Title: Nominal Market Size Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 152,256,1 Nodesize: 132,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,0,,0 Original: Mature_market_size Formnode Market_share_at_same Title: Market Share At Same Price Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 152,280,1 Nodesize: 132,20 Original: Nominal_market_share Formnode Unit_cost Title: Unit Cost Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 413,190,0 Nodesize: 122,18 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,0,,1 Original: Unit_cst Formnode Startup_cost1 Title: Startup Cost Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 413,166,0 Nodesize: 122,18 Original: Startup_cost Formnode Yearly_fixed_cost1 Title: Yearly Fixed Cost Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 413,142,0 Nodesize: 122,18 Original: Yearly_fixed_cost Picture Picprodlifecycle Nodelocation: 148,156,0 Nodesize: 140,144 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,0,1,1,0,,1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Pict: (03F000000000009E0119001102FF0C00FFFFFFFF0000000000000000011900~~ 00009E00000000000000A10064000C574F524400000000009E011900A000AB001E000~~ 1000A00000000009E011900610007001600210030009C00300022006F002300AB00A0~~ 00AD00A000AB0061006300ED007D010700F60030002000700023007000F400A000AD0~~ 01A00000000D4000007000200020022006E00233BC50022003200603F000022003200~~ A13C3D00A10096000C010000000100000000000000001A000000000000002C0009000~~ 30647656E6576610000030003000D0009002E0004000000000010009E0119009E0119~~ 002B051A0573616C657300A0009700A10096000C010000000100000000000000002BF~~ C5B0474696D650000A0009700A100B600040001000400070001000100220032005F00~~ 3E00A100B60004000100010007000000000023000000A100B60004000100040007000~~ 100010022003300A1003C00A100B60004000100010007000000000023000000A10096~~ 000C01000000010000000000000000280060003D0747726F7774680D002A0C0550686~~ 173650000A0009700A10096000C0100000001000000000000000028005E0072074D61~~ 747572650D002A0C0550686173650000A0009700A10096000C0100000001000000000~~ 000000028006000A7084465636C696E650D00002A0C0550686173650000A0009700A0~~ 00AC0061006D001700870031004200300061006D00510087006B00F60030000700010~~ 0010022007A002A2E0000A000AD00A000AC0069004200300061006D0095008700AF00~~ F600300022007A0064380000A000AD00A000AC0061006D0097008700B100420030006~~ 1006D00D0008700EA00F600300022007A00AA2D0000A000AD00A10096000C01000000~~ 01000000000000000028008F00320747726F7774680D002A0C0620596561727300A00~~ 09700A10096000C0100000001000000000000000028008F0074074D61747572650D00~~ 2A0C0620596561727300A0009700A10096000C0100000001000000000000000028008~~ D00AD084465636C696E650D00002A0C0620596561727300A0009700A100B600040001~~ 0004001ADD6B08C206A200220032005FC40000A100B60004000100010007000000000~~ 023000000A10096000C010000000100000000000000002800340007054D6B742E0D00~~ 2A0C0453697A6500A0009700A10096000C010000000100000000000000001A0000000~~ 00000002B0C37013000A0009700A10096000C010000000100000000000000002C000B~~ 0002084E657720596F726B0000030002000D000C0028000F00431750726F647563742~~ 04C69666574696D65204379636C650D002A1014202020202028656E74697265206D61~~ 726B65742900A0009700FF) Formnode Net_present_value1 Title: Net Present Value Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 408,288,1 Nodesize: 116,16 Nodecolor: -1,26214,-26215 Original: Net_present_value Picture Box Nodelocation: 72,32,0 Nodesize: 44,20 Picture Picprodcost Nodelocation: 408,168,-2 Nodesize: 116,60 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,0,1,1,0,,1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Formnode Cash_flow_over_time1 Title: Cash Flow over Time Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 408,264,1 Nodesize: 116,8 Nodecolor: -1,26214,-26215 Original: Cash_flow Text Textprodcost Description: Product costs Nodelocation: 379,124,0 Nodesize: 80,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Helvetica, 18 Text Textresults Description: Results Nodelocation: 360,248,0 Nodesize: 56,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Helvetica, 18 Text Textprodlifecycle Description: Product Lifecycle Nodelocation: 126,25,-1 Nodesize: 113,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,1,1,,0, Nodefont: Helvetica, 18 Formnode Relative_price Title: Relative Price Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 416,64,1 Nodesize: 120,16 Original: Price Formnode Additional_advertisi Title: Additional Advertising Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 416,88,1 Nodesize: 120,16 Original: Marketing_budget Module Price_and_advertisin Title: Options Author: Henrion Date: Mon, Nov 11, 1996 2:43 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 472,32,1 Nodesize: 40,12 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,,0, Diagstate: 1,398,248,342,261,17 Nodecolor: 19661,-31887,-1 Formnode Competition_s_price Title: Competition's Price Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 148,40,1 Nodesize: 132,12 Original: Competitor_price Formnode Min_additional_adver Title: Min Additional Advertising Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 149,168 Nodesize: 132,16 Original: Min_adv Formnode Max_additional_adver Title: Max Additional Advertising Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 149,192 Nodesize: 132,16 Original: Max_adv Formnode Num__of_adv__cases_m Title: Num. of Adv. Cases Modeled Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 149,216 Nodesize: 132,16 Original: Num_adv Formnode Max_relative_price Title: Max Relative Price Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 148,64 Nodesize: 132,8 Original: Max_rp Formnode Min_relative_price Title: Min Relative Price Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 148,88 Nodesize: 132,8 Original: Min_rp Formnode Relative_price_incre Title: Relative Price Increment Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 148,112 Nodesize: 132,8 Original: Num_rp Picture Picprodprice Nodelocation: 147,66 Nodesize: 139,62 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,0,1,1,0,,1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Picture Picadvertising Nodelocation: 149,184 Nodesize: 140,48 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,0,1,1,0,,1 Windstate: 1,50,219 Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Text Textproductprice Description: Product price Nodelocation: 72,16 Nodesize: 60,8 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Geneva, 14 Text Textadoptions Description: Advertising budget options Nodelocation: 133,144 Nodesize: 120,8 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Geneva, 14 Module Input_variables Title: Input variables Author: Henrion Date: Feb 3, 1997 6:15 PM Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 368,120 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,471,228,256,310,17 Variable Max_rp Title: Max Relative Price Description: The maximum value to be explored, for Relative Price. Definition: 1.6 Nodelocation: 48,24 Nodesize: 44,24 Aliases: Formnode Max_relative_price Variable Min_rp Title: Min Relative Price Description: The minimum value to be explored, for Relative Price. Definition: 0.6 Nodelocation: 48,72 Nodesize: 44,24 Aliases: Formnode Min_relative_price Variable Num_rp Title: Number of price cases Description: The number of values of Relative Price to be explored. Definition: 5 Nodelocation: 48,120 Nodesize: 44,24 Windstate: 1,183,392 Aliases: Formnode Relative_price_incre Variable Min_adv Title: Min additional advertising Units: $ Description: The Minimum Additional Advertising amount. Definition: 0 Nodelocation: 48,168 Nodesize: 44,24 Aliases: Formnode Min_additional_adver Variable Max_adv Title: Max additional advertising Units: $ Description: The Maximum Additional Advertising amount. Definition: 100M Nodelocation: 48,216 Nodesize: 44,24 Aliases: Formnode Max_additional_adver Variable Num_adv Title: Number of ad cases Description: The number of Additional Advertising amounts to be explor~~ ed. Definition: 5 Nodelocation: 48,264 Nodesize: 44,24 Aliases: Formnode Num__of_adv__cases_m Decision Rel_pr1 Title: Relative Prices Description: Relative Price is modeled as a decision to price our prod~~ uct relative to the average Competitions' Price for similar products.~~ ~ A sequence of values is used, where each value represents Our Price/C~~ ompetitions' Price. Definition: Sequence( Min_rp, Max_rp, (Max_rp-Min_rp)/(Num_rp-1) ) Nodelocation: 168,72 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,-434,82,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,169,132,283,190,0,MIDM Decision Marketing_budget_lev Title: Marketing budget levels Units: $ Description: Leves of marketing budget for analysis. Definition: Sequence(Min_adv, Max_adv, (Max_adv-Min_adv)/(Num_adv-1)) Nodelocation: 168,216 Nodesize: 44,24 Defnstate: 1,70,84,416,303,0,MIDM Valuestate: 1,104,114,338,283,0,MIDM Close Input_variables Close Price_and_advertisin Picture Picprodcost1 Title: Picprodcost Nodelocation: 408,56,-2 Nodesize: 116,48 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,0,1,1,0,,1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Text Textprodcost1 Title: Textprodcost Description: Decisions Nodelocation: 364,32,0 Nodesize: 64,20 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,,0, Nodefont: Helvetica, 18 Picture Picprodcost2 Title: Picprodcost Nodelocation: 408,280,-2 Nodesize: 116,48 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,0,1,1,0,,1 Nodecolor: -1,-1,-1 Formnode Net_present_value_i1 Title: Net Present Value Importance Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 408,312,1 Nodesize: 116,16 Valuestate: 1,118,243,416,303,1,MIDM Nodecolor: -13109,1,-30580 Original: Net_present_value_im Module Tornado_analysis Title: Tornado Analysis Defaultsize: 48,24 Nodelocation: 152,376,1 Nodesize: 44,20 Diagstate: 1,45,11,836,422,17 Alias Net_present_value2 Title: Net Present Value Definition: 1 Nodelocation: 80,48,1 Nodesize: 44,32 Nodecolor: -1,19661,-26763 Original: Net_present_value Text Te1 Description: Variations on Tornados:~ ~ * Which inputs to vary?~ * How to vary inputs?~ - explicit levels~ - percentage of baseline~ - fixed offset~ - Fractile levels~ * What baseline?~ - Mid / median~ - Mean~ - Freely varying by distribution~ * Representation: ~ - Separate variables for Low, Base, High~ - Table with columns.~ * Sorting criteria (when output is array-valued)~ * Tornado quantity~ - Output value~ - Percent change from baseline~ - Coefficient range, Elasticity, DyDx, etc.~ * Array-valued inputs~ - Vary entire array or individual cells~ - Flatten output to scalar inputs or~ keep as array. Nodelocation: 672,200,-1 Nodesize: 136,188 Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,0,0,0 Variable Vars Title: Input Variables Definition: [Marketing_budget,Discount_rate1,Mature_market_size,Compet~~ itor_price,Nominal_market_share,Marketing_effectiven,Price_elasticity~~ ,Base_marketing_budge,Unit_cst,Startup_cost,Yearly_fixed_cost,Price]~~ Indexvals: ['Marketing budget','Discount rate','Mature market size','C~~ ompetitor price','Nominal market share','Marketing effectiveness','Pr~~ ice elasticity','Base marketing budget','Unit Cost','Startup Cost','Y~~ early Fixed Cost','Price'] Nodelocation: 200,48,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,210,226,416,303,0,MIDM {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: [Marketing_budget,Discount_rate1,Mature_market_size~~ ,Competitor_price,Nominal_market_share,Marketing_effectiven,Price_elasticity~~ ,Base_marketing_budge,Unit_cst,Startup_cost,Yearly_fixed_cost]} Variable Chance_inputs Title: Chance Inputs Definition: [ Price_elasticity, Marketing_effectiven, Nominal_market_s~~ hare, Mature_market_size ] Indexvals: ['Price elasticity','Marketing effectiveness','Nominal mark~~ et share','Mature market size'] Nodelocation: 312,48,1 Nodesize: 48,24 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: [Price_elasticity,Marketing_effectiven,Nominal_market_share~~ ,Mature_market_size]} Module Single_bar_local_sen Title: Single Bar Local Sensitivity examples Nodelocation: 448,48,1 Nodesize: 60,36 Variable Whatif_example Title: WhatIf Example Definition: WhatIf( Net_present_value, Price, 150% * Price ) Nodelocation: 96,48,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,541,203,416,303,0,MEAN Variable Dydx_example Title: DyDx example Definition: For v:=Vars do ~ DyDx( Net_present_value, v ) Nodelocation: 216,48,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,529,116,451,339,1,MEAN Graphsetup: {!40000|Att_graphvaluerange Dydx_example:1,,,,,,10}~ {!40000|Att_graphindexrange Vars:1,,,,,,10}~ {!40000|Flip:8}~ {!40000|Att_catlinestyle Graph_primary_valdim:9} Variable Elasticity_example Title: Elasticity example Definition: Var res := (For v:=Vars do Elasticity( Net_present_val~~ ue, v ) );~ ~ index Sorted_Input_vars := SortIndex( -abs(res) );~ res [ Vars = Sorted_input_vars ] Nodelocation: 328,48,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,467,90,492,372,1,MIDM Graphsetup: {!40000|Att_graphvaluerange Elasticity_example:1,,,,,,10}~ {!40000|Att_graphindexrange Vars:1,,,,,,10}~ {!40000|Flip:8}~ {!40000|Att_catlinestyle Graph_primary_valdim:9} Variable Regression_coefficie Title: Regression coefficient Definition: Sample( regression( Net_present_value, Chance_inputs, Run,~~ Chance_inputs ) ) Nodelocation: 440,48,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,408,208,416,303,1,MIDM Graphsetup: {!40000|Att_graphvaluerange Regression_coefficie:1,,,,,,10~~ }~ {!40000|Att_graphindexrange Chance_inputs:1,,,,,,10}~ {!40000|Flip:8}~ {!40000|Att_catlinestyle Graph_primary_valdim:9} Close Single_bar_local_sen Constant Level Title: Level Definition: Table(Self)(~ 0.5,1,1.5) Indexvals: ['Low','Baseline','High'] Nodelocation: 80,136,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Defnstate: 2,157,254,416,303,0,MIDM Numberformat: 2,%,4,2,0,0,4,0,$,0,"ABBREV",0 {!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Low','Baseline','High']} Variable Input_ranges Title: input ranges Definition: Level * Vars Nodelocation: 200,136,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,127,108,580,431,0,MIDM Reformval: [Level,Vars] {!40000|Att_resultslicestate: [Time,4,Vars,1,Level,1]} Variable Npv_range Title: NPV Range Definition: Tornado( Net_present_value, Vars, Level*Vars, Level ) Nodelocation: 312,136,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,279,62,688,493,1,MIDM Graphsetup: {!40000|Att_catlinestyle Graph_primary_valdim:9}~ Att__barorigin Npv_range:0~ {!40000|Flip:8}~ {!40000|Att_stackedbar Graph_primary_valdim:0}~ Baroverlap:80 Reformval: [Sys_localindex('VARS'),Level] {!40000|Att_originrole: Slice(Level,Level,2)} Function Widthsort( vals ; InputVars, Level : Index) Title: WidthSort Description: sorts vals in order of bar width Definition: var width := Average_All_Except( Mean(Max(vals,Level) - Mi~~ n(Vals,Level)), InputVars );~ Index SortedVars / (identifier of InputVars) := SortIndex(-width);~ vals[InputVars=SortedVars] Nodelocation: 440,136,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,102,90,476,410 Paramnames: vals,InputVars,Level Variable Fractile_levels Title: Fractile levels Definition: Table(Level)(~ 0.1,0.5,0.9) Nodelocation: 80,200,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Numberformat: 2,%,4,2,0,0,4,0,$,0,"ABBREV",0 Variable Npv_range_using_10_9 Title: NPV Range using 10-90 fractile of inputs Definition: Tornado(Net_present_value,Chance_inputs,GetFract(Chance_in~~ puts, Fractile_levels), Level) Nodelocation: 312,208,1 Nodesize: 48,34 Valuestate: 2,309,188,616,396,1,MEAN Graphsetup: Baroverlap:80~ {!40000|Att_stackedbar Graph_primary_valdim:0}~ {!40000|Flip:8}~ Att__barorigin Npv_range_using_10_9:0~ {!40000|Att_catlinestyle Graph_primary_valdim:9} Reformval: [Sys_localindex('CHANCE_INPUTS'),Level] {!40000|Att_resultslicestate: [Sys_localindex('CHANCE_INPUTS'),1,Level~~ ,1,Chance_inputs,1]} {!40000|Att_originrole: Slice(Level,Level,2)} Variable Input_ranges2 Title: input ranges2 Definition: GetFract(Chance_inputs,Fractile_levels) Nodelocation: 200,200,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Reformval: [Level,Chance_inputs] Constant Level_lh Title: Level LH Definition: Table(Self)(~ 0.5,1.5) Indexvals: ['Low','High'] Nodelocation: 80,272,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Variable Npv_range_10_90_ils_ Title: NPV Range 10-90%ils with free baseline Definition: Tornado( Net_present_value, Vars, Level_lh*Vars, Level_lh~~ ) Nodelocation: 200,272,1 Nodesize: 48,26 Valuestate: 2,157,112,709,435,1,MIDM Graphsetup: Baroverlap:100~ {!40000|Att_stackedbar Graph_primary_valdim:0}~ {!40000|Flip:8}~ Att__barorigin Npv_range_10_90_ils_:0~ {!40000|Att_catlinestyle Graph_primary_valdim:9} Reformval: [Sys_localindex('VARS'),Level_lh] Xyexpr: Net_present_value {!40000|Att_resultslicestate: [Marketing_budget_lev,2,Level_lh,1,Sys_localindex~~ ('VARS'),1]} {!40000|Att_xrole: Sys_localindex('VARS')} {!40000|Att_originrole: 1} Function Tornado( ResultVar : Unevaluated ; InputVars : Index of handl~~ e ; ~ InputRanges ; Levels : Index) Title: Tornado Definition: WidthSort(~ WhatIfAll( resultVar, InputVars, InputRanges) ,~ InputVars, Levels ) Nodelocation: 440,200,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Windstate: 2,493,128,476,224 Paramnames: ResultVar,InputVars,InputRanges,Levels Variable Non_sorted Title: non-sorted Definition: WhatIfAll( Net_present_value, Vars, Vars*Level) Nodelocation: 200,336,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Valuestate: 2,200,210,516,379,0,MIDM Reformval: [Level,Vars] {!40000|Att_resultslicestate: [Marketing_budget_lev,1,Vars,1,Level,1]}~~ Function Average_all_except( X ; I : Index) Title: Average All Except Description: Average of all values in X across all indexes of X except~~ I. Definition: var S := X;~ for J:=indexesOf(X) do (~ If Handle(I) <> Handle(J) then S := sum(S,J);~ );~ S / size(X) Nodelocation: 440,264,1 Nodesize: 48,24 Paramnames: X,I Close Tornado_analysis Close Marketmodel1