Meta Forecast
January 2022
The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.
- Euro area: GDP growth will be 3.7% in 2022 and 1.9% in 2023.
- United States: GDP growth will be 3.6% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023.
- China: GDP growth will be 5.8% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2023.
Euro area | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Jan-2022 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Oct-2021 | 4.5 | NA | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Nov-2021 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Jan-2022 | 4.3 | 2.4 | -0.0 | 0.0 |
| IMF | Oct-2021 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Dec-2021 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2021 | 4.4 | NA | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EC | Nov-2021 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ECB | Dec-2021 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty for 2022
United States | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Jan-2022 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Nov-2021 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Nov-2021 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Jan-2022 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| IMF | Oct-2021 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Dec-2021 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2021 | 4.2 | NA | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -2.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty for 2022
China | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Jan-2022 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Jan-2022 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Jan-2022 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| IMF | Oct-2021 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Dec-2021 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2021 | 5.4 | NA | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ADB | Dec-2021 | 5.3 | NA | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 6.0 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty for 2022