Meta Forecast

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July 2022

The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.

  • Euro area: GDP growth will be 2.9% in 2022 and 1.8% in 2023.
  • United States: GDP growth will be 2.7% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023.
  • China: GDP growth will be 4.3% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2023.
Euro area logo Euro area
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2022 2023 2022 2023
Meta Forecast Jul-2022 2.9 1.8 -0.2 -0.1
Forecasters’ Survey Apr-2022 2.9 2.3 0.0 0.0
Naive Forecast May-2022 3.1 1.4 0.0 0.0
International Institutions Jul-2022 2.7 2.1 -0.6 -0.3
IMF Apr-2022 2.8 2.3 0.0 0.0
OECD Jun-2022 2.6 1.6 -1.7 -0.9
WB Jun-2022 2.5 1.9 -1.7 -0.2
EC May-2022 2.7 2.3 0.0 0.0
ECB Jun-2022 2.8 2.1 -0.9 -0.7
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 1.9 2.6 1.8 1.6 -6.1 5.3 1.0

Forecast revision for 2022

Uncertainty for 2022

USA flag United States
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2022 2023 2022 2023
Meta Forecast Jul-2022 2.7 2.1 -0.2 -0.2
Forecasters’ Survey May-2022 2.5 2.3 0.0 0.0
Naive Forecast May-2022 2.8 2.6 0.0 0.0
International Institutions Jul-2022 2.9 2.0 -0.8 -0.4
IMF Apr-2022 3.7 2.2 0.0 0.0
OECD Jun-2022 2.5 1.2 -1.2 -1.2
WB Jun-2022 2.5 2.4 -1.2 -0.2
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 1.7 2.2 2.9 2.3 -2.8 5.9 2.1

Forecast revision for 2022

Uncertainty for 2022

China flag China
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2022 2023 2022 2023
Meta Forecast Jul-2022 4.3 5.6 -1.0 0.0
Naive Forecast Jul-2022 3.8 6.9 -2.3 0.1
International Institutions Jul-2022 4.6 5.0 -0.3 -0.0
IMF Apr-2022 4.4 5.1 0.0 0.0
OECD Jun-2022 4.4 4.9 -0.7 -0.2
WB Jun-2022 4.3 5.2 -0.8 -0.1
ADB Apr-2022 5.0 4.8 0.0 0.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.1 6.0

Forecast revision for 2022

Uncertainty for 2022