Meta Forecast
September 2022
The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.
- Euro area: GDP growth will be 3.1% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023.
- United States: GDP growth will be 2.0% in 2022 and 1.7% in 2023.
- China: GDP growth will be 4.1% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2023.
Euro area | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Sep-2022 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Jul-2022 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Aug-2022 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Sep-2022 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| IMF | Apr-2022 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Jun-2022 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EC | Jul-2022 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ECB | Jun-2022 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty
United States | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Sep-2022 | 2.0 | 1.7 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Aug-2022 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Aug-2022 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Sep-2022 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| IMF | Apr-2022 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Jun-2022 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -2.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty
China | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Sep-2022 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Jul-2022 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Sep-2022 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| IMF | Apr-2022 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Jun-2022 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ADB | Jul-2022 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 6.0 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty