Meta Forecast
November 2022
The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.
- Latest quarterly GDP figures (q-on-q): +0.2% in Q3 in the eurozone; +0.7% in Q3 in the USA; +3.9% in Q3 in China.
- IMF: in 2022/2023, GDP growth will be +3.3%/+0.5% in the eurozone, +1.6%/+1.0% in the USA and +3.2%/+4.4% in China.
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: GDP growth will be +3.0% in 2022 and +0.1% in 2023 in the eurozone (prev.: +2.8% and +1.5%).
Euro area | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Nov-2022 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -0.7 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Oct-2022 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -1.4 |
| Naive Forecast | Nov-2022 | 3.4 | 1.5 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| International Institutions | Nov-2022 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 | -0.5 |
| IMF | Oct-2022 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -1.8 |
| OECD | Jun-2022 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EC | Jul-2022 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ECB | Sep-2022 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty
United States | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Nov-2022 | 1.9 | 1.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Aug-2022 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Nov-2022 | 2.0 | 2.3 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| International Institutions | Nov-2022 | 1.9 | 1.4 | -1.1 | -0.5 |
| IMF | Oct-2022 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -2.1 | -1.3 |
| OECD | Jun-2022 | 2.5 | 1.2 | -0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -2.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty
China | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Nov-2022 | 3.6 | 5.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Naive Forecast | Oct-2022 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Nov-2022 | 3.5 | 4.7 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| IMF | Oct-2022 | 3.2 | 4.4 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
| OECD | Jun-2022 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ADB | Sep-2022 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 6.0 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty