Meta Forecast
December 2022
The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.
- Latest quarterly GDP figures (q-on-q): +0.2% in Q3 in the eurozone; +0.7% in Q3 in the USA; +3.9% in Q3 in China.
- OECD: in 2022/2023, GDP growth will be +3.3%/+0.5% in the eurozone, +1.8%/+0.5% in the USA and +3.3%/+4.6% in China.
- Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters: GDP growth will be +1.9% in 2022 and +0.7% in 2023 in the USA (prev.: +1.6% and +1.3%).
Euro area | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Dec-2022 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Oct-2022 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Nov-2022 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Dec-2022 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.4 |
| IMF | Oct-2022 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Nov-2022 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -1.1 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EC | Nov-2022 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -1.1 |
| ECB | Sep-2022 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty
United States | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Dec-2022 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.0 | -0.4 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Nov-2022 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.6 |
| Naive Forecast | Nov-2022 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Dec-2022 | 1.8 | 1.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| IMF | Oct-2022 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Nov-2022 | 1.8 | 0.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -2.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty
China | Last revision | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Dec-2022 | 3.5 | 5.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Naive Forecast | Oct-2022 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Dec-2022 | 3.4 | 4.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| IMF | Oct-2022 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Nov-2022 | 3.3 | 4.6 | -1.1 | -0.3 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ADB | Sep-2022 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 6.0 |
Forecast revision for 2022
Uncertainty