Meta Forecast
January 2023
The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.
- With 2023 starting, the Meta Forecast will now feature forecasts for 2023 and 2024. The first estimates for GDP growth in 2022 will be released later this month for all major areas.
- ECB: GDP growth in the eurozone will be +3.4% in 2022, +0.5% in 2023 and +1,9% in 2024 (prev.: +3.1%, +0.9% and +1.9%).
- ADB: GDP growth in China will be +3.0% in 2022 and +4.3% in 2023 (prev.: +3.3% and +4.5%).
Euro area | Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Jan-2023 | 0.7 | 1.4 | -0.0 | 0.0 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Oct-2022 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Nov-2022 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Jan-2023 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| IMF | Oct-2022 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Nov-2022 | 0.5 | 1.4 | -0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EC | Nov-2022 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ECB | Dec-2022 | 0.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
Forecast revision for 2023
Uncertainty
United States | Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Jan-2023 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Nov-2022 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Nov-2022 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Jan-2023 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| IMF | Oct-2022 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Nov-2022 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -2.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 |
Forecast revision for 2023
Uncertainty
China | Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Jan-2023 | 5.3 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Oct-2022 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Jan-2023 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| IMF | Oct-2022 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Nov-2022 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jun-2022 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ADB | Dec-2022 | 4.3 | NA | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 6.0 |
Forecast revision for 2023
Uncertainty