Meta Forecast
April 2023
The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.
Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meta Forecast | Apr-2023 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.1 | -0.0 |
Forecasters’ Survey | Jan-2023 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Naive Forecast | Feb-2023 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
International Institutions | Apr-2023 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
IMF | Jan-2023 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
OECD | Mar-2023 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | -0.0 |
WB | Jan-2023 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
EC | Feb-2023 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
ECB | Mar-2023 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 5Y Avg. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous GDP growth | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
Forecast revision for 2023
Uncertainty
Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meta Forecast | Apr-2023 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.1 | -0.0 |
Forecasters’ Survey | Feb-2023 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Naive Forecast | Feb-2023 | 2.4 | 2.5 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
International Institutions | Apr-2023 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
IMF | Jan-2023 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
OECD | Mar-2023 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
WB | Jan-2023 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 5Y Avg. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous GDP growth | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -2.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Forecast revision for 2023
Uncertainty
Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meta Forecast | Apr-2023 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Naive Forecast | Jan-2023 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
International Institutions | Apr-2023 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
IMF | Jan-2023 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
OECD | Mar-2023 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
WB | Jan-2023 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
ADB | Dec-2022 | 4.3 | NA | 0.0 | 0.0 |
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 5Y Avg. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous GDP growth | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 5.3 |
Forecast revision for 2023
Uncertainty