Meta Forecast

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April 2023

The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.

  • Latest quarterly GDP data (q-on-q): +0.0% in Q4 in the eurozone, +0.65% in Q4 in the USA, +0.0% in Q4 in China.
  • OECD: in 2023/2024, GDP growth will be +0.8%/+1.4% in the eurozone, +1.5%/+0.9% in the USA and +5.3%/+4.9% in China.
  • ECB: GDP growth will be +1.0% in 2023 and +1.6% in 2024 in the eurozone (prev.: +0.5% and +1.9%).
Euro area logo Euro area
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2023 2024 2023 2024
Meta Forecast Apr-2023 0.8 1.3 0.1 -0.0
Forecasters’ Survey Jan-2023 0.2 1.4 0.0 0.0
Naive Forecast Feb-2023 1.4 1.5 0.0 0.0
International Institutions Apr-2023 0.7 1.5 0.2 -0.1
IMF Jan-2023 0.7 1.6 0.0 0.0
OECD Mar-2023 0.8 1.4 0.3 -0.0
WB Jan-2023 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0
EC Feb-2023 0.9 1.5 0.0 0.0
ECB Mar-2023 1.0 1.6 0.5 -0.3
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 2.6 1.8 1.6 -6.1 5.3 3.5 1.6

Forecast revision for 2023

Uncertainty

USA flag United States
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2023 2024 2023 2024
Meta Forecast Apr-2023 1.5 1.4 0.1 -0.0
Forecasters’ Survey Feb-2023 1.3 1.4 0.0 0.0
Naive Forecast Feb-2023 2.4 2.5 -0.0 -0.0
International Institutions Apr-2023 1.2 1.2 0.3 -0.1
IMF Jan-2023 1.4 1.0 0.0 0.0
OECD Mar-2023 1.5 0.9 1.0 -0.1
WB Jan-2023 0.5 1.6 0.0 0.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 2.2 2.9 2.3 -2.8 5.9 2.1 2.1

Forecast revision for 2023

Uncertainty

China flag China
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2023 2024 2023 2024
Meta Forecast Apr-2023 5.3 5.2 0.1 0.1
Naive Forecast Jan-2023 6.4 6.4 0.0 0.0
International Institutions Apr-2023 4.8 4.8 0.2 0.2
IMF Jan-2023 5.2 4.5 0.0 0.0
OECD Mar-2023 5.3 4.9 0.7 0.8
WB Jan-2023 4.3 5.0 0.0 0.0
ADB Dec-2022 4.3 NA 0.0 0.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 6.9 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.4 3.0 5.3

Forecast revision for 2023

Uncertainty