Meta Forecast
May 2023
The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.
- Latest quarterly GDP data (q-on-q): +0.1% in Q1 in the eurozone, +0.3% in Q1 in the USA, +2.2% in Q1 in China.
- IMF: in 2023/2024, GDP growth will be +0.8%/+1.4% in the eurozone, +1.6%/+ 1.1% in the USA and +5.2%/+4.5% in China.
- ADB: GDP growth will be +5.0% in 2023 and +4.5% in 2024 in China (prev.: +4.3% in 2023).
Euro area | Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | May-2023 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Apr-2023 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Naive Forecast | May-2023 | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | May-2023 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| IMF | Apr-2023 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
| OECD | Mar-2023 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jan-2023 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EC | Feb-2023 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ECB | Mar-2023 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
Forecast revision for 2023
Uncertainty
United States | Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | May-2023 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Feb-2023 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | May-2023 | 2.1 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | May-2023 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| IMF | Apr-2023 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| OECD | Mar-2023 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jan-2023 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -2.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Forecast revision for 2023
Uncertainty
China | Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | May-2023 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Apr-2023 | 6.2 | 6.4 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | May-2023 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| IMF | Apr-2023 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| OECD | Mar-2023 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jan-2023 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ADB | Apr-2023 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 5.3 |
Forecast revision for 2023
Uncertainty