Meta Forecast

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June 2023

The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.

  • Latest quarterly GDP data (q-on-q): +0.0% in Q1 in the eurozone, +0.5% in Q1 in the USA, +2.2% in Q1 in China.
  • World Bank: in 2023/2024, GDP growth will be +0.4%/+1.3% in the eurozone, +1.1%/+0.8% in the USA and +5.6%/+4.6% in China.
  • ECB: GDP growth will be +0.9% in 2023 and +1.5% in 2024 in the eurozone (prev.: +1.0% in 2023 and +1.6% in 2024).
Euro area logo Euro area
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2023 2024 2023 2024
Meta Forecast Jun-2023 0.8 1.2 -0.0 -0.0
Forecasters’ Survey May-2023 0.6 1.2 -0.1 -0.0
Naive Forecast May-2023 1.0 1.5 -0.1 -0.0
International Institutions Jun-2023 0.8 1.4 0.1 -0.0
IMF Apr-2023 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0
OECD Mar-2023 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0
WB Jun-2023 0.4 1.3 0.4 -0.3
EC May-2023 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.1
ECB Jun-2023 0.9 1.5 -0.1 -0.1
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 2.6 1.8 1.6 -6.0 5.4 3.3 1.2

Forecast revision for 2023

Uncertainty

USA flag United States
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2023 2024 2023 2024
Meta Forecast Jun-2023 1.6 1.2 0.0 -0.3
Forecasters’ Survey May-2023 1.3 1.0 0.0 -0.4
Naive Forecast May-2023 2.3 2.5 0.2 -0.0
International Institutions Jun-2023 1.4 0.9 0.1 -0.2
IMF Apr-2023 1.6 1.1 0.0 0.0
OECD Mar-2023 1.5 0.9 0.0 0.0
WB Jun-2023 1.1 0.8 0.6 -0.8
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 2.2 2.9 2.3 -2.8 5.9 2.1 2.1

Forecast revision for 2023

Uncertainty

China flag China
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2023 2024 2023 2024
Meta Forecast Jun-2023 5.6 5.1 0.1 -0.1
Naive Forecast Apr-2023 6.2 6.4 0.0 0.0
International Institutions Jun-2023 5.3 4.6 0.3 -0.1
IMF Apr-2023 5.2 4.5 0.0 0.0
OECD Mar-2023 5.3 4.9 0.0 0.0
WB Jun-2023 5.6 4.6 1.3 -0.4
ADB Apr-2023 5.0 4.5 0.0 0.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 6.9 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.4 3.0 5.3

Forecast revision for 2023

Uncertainty