Meta Forecast

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July 2023

The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.

  • Latest quarterly GDP data (q-on-q): +0.0% in Q1 in the eurozone, +0.5% in Q1 in the USA, +2.2% in Q1 in China.
  • OECD: in 2023/2024, GDP growth will be +0.9%/+1.5% in the eurozone, +1.6%/+1.0% in the USA and +5.4%/+5.1% in China.
Euro area logo Euro area
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2023 2024 2023 2024
Meta Forecast Jul-2023 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0
Forecasters’ Survey May-2023 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0
Naive Forecast May-2023 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.0
International Institutions Jul-2023 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0
IMF Apr-2023 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0
OECD Jun-2023 0.9 1.5 0.1 0.1
WB Jun-2023 0.4 1.3 0.0 0.0
EC May-2023 1.1 1.6 0.0 0.0
ECB Jun-2023 0.9 1.5 0.0 0.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 2.6 1.8 1.6 -6.0 5.4 3.3 1.2

Forecast revision for 2023

Uncertainty

USA flag United States
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2023 2024 2023 2024
Meta Forecast Jul-2023 1.6 1.2 0.0 -0.0
Forecasters’ Survey May-2023 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.0
Naive Forecast May-2023 2.3 2.5 0.0 0.0
International Institutions Jul-2023 1.4 0.9 0.0 0.0
IMF Apr-2023 1.6 1.1 0.0 0.0
OECD Jun-2023 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.1
WB Jun-2023 1.1 0.8 0.0 0.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 2.2 2.9 2.3 -2.8 5.9 2.1 2.1

Forecast revision for 2023

Uncertainty

China flag China
FORECAST
REVISION
Last revision 2023 2024 2023 2024
Meta Forecast Jul-2023 5.6 5.2 -0.0 0.0
Naive Forecast Apr-2023 6.2 6.4 0.0 0.0
International Institutions Jul-2023 5.3 4.7 0.0 0.1
IMF Apr-2023 5.2 4.5 0.0 0.0
OECD Jun-2023 5.4 5.1 0.1 0.2
WB Jun-2023 5.6 4.6 0.0 0.0
ADB Apr-2023 5.0 4.5 0.0 0.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5Y Avg.
Previous GDP growth 6.9 6.7 6.0 2.2 8.4 3.0 5.3

Forecast revision for 2023

Uncertainty