Meta Forecast
January 2024
The Meta Forecast is a combination of GDP forecasts from multiple sources. Forecasts are aggregated and adjusted based on the historical accuracy of each source in similar conditions. The result is a central prediction for GDP growth and a distribution of possible outcomes - both equally important. Learn more about the methodology at centolla.org/meta.
Euro area | Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Jan-2024 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Oct-2023 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Nov-2023 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Jan-2024 | 0.6 | 1.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| IMF | Oct-2023 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Sep-2023 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jan-2024 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.6 |
| EC | Nov-2023 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ECB | Dec-2023 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
Forecast revision for 2024
Uncertainty
United States | Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Jan-2024 | 2.4 | 1.8 | -0.0 | 0.0 |
| Forecasters’ Survey | Nov-2023 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Naive Forecast | Nov-2023 | 2.5 | 2.8 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| International Institutions | Jan-2024 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| IMF | Oct-2023 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Sep-2023 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jan-2024 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | -2.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
Forecast revision for 2024
Uncertainty
China | Last revision | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Forecast | Jan-2024 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Naive Forecast | Oct-2023 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| International Institutions | Jan-2024 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| IMF | Oct-2023 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| OECD | Sep-2023 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WB | Jan-2024 | 5.2 | 4.5 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| ADB | Dec-2023 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 5Y Avg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous GDP growth | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 5.3 |
Forecast revision for 2024
Uncertainty