Hasina’s path to surviving student revolution narrows

On Sunday, close to 100 people died in Bangladesh, mostly protestors, but the number also includes significant numbers of policemen and governing Awami League members. The government has announced an indefinite curfew and has said that it will come down hard on “terrorists.” The student leaders, however, have announced that everyone who supports them should converge on Dhaka “to mark the ultimate signature of this student citizen uprising” as they want to lay siege on Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s residence, which has turned into a military garrison right now. The army has stated it will fulfil its constitutional duty and enforce the curfew, but it will not shoot protestors.

The government’s decision to call on its party activists to assemble on Saturday, at the same time as huge numbers of protestors were on the same streets, was extremely reckless, and it was entirely foreseeable that clashes and deaths (on both sides) would result. The government gains by being able to brand protestors as “terrorists”: the more violence there is, particularly when its side are victims, the better it suits them politically.

The government’s decision to call a curfew on Saturday evening is primarily to try and prevent people from converging on Dhaka. The students are, however, not going to stop their programmes simply because a curfew has been called. Many people who would otherwise have taken part in converging on Dhaka may well be deterred by Sunday’s killings, but enough will take part to make it potentially a huge rally.

The army’s position on how it will enforce the curfew is crucial. It is significant that the army chief has, it appears, agreed not to shoot at “the people” and has messaged that the army is on the “people’s side.”. However, there are lots of internal dynamics that can complicate the situation, with some generals more loyal to Hasina than others. To make it all more complicated, junior officers also have mixed views - so, for example, the generals loyal to Hasina may feel they cannot risk alienating their subordinates. It is notable that a video shared widely showed some army officers today siding with the protestors against the police and Awami League.

All things being equal, it is, more likely that the army will allow the protestors to gather in Dhaka, as long as there is no serious violence.

However, going by Saturday, Awami League activists (and the police) will try to clash with the protestors seeking to congregate in Dhaka, something that could push the protestors’ aims off course. This is where the army will have to make a crucial decision - to side with the protestors or with the Awami League and police.

The international community continues to be silent. There are unconfirmed reports that India has told Hasina that her time is up, or at least that they can do no more to support her. Since India is a key external supporter of the Awami League and the Hasina regime, this would, if true, be significant. (Of course, if things do come to a crunch, India will make sure Hasina and her family are safe).

However, India will be very concerned about what comes after Hasina and may seek to be involved in the process of transition. It is important to note that India also has significant influence over certain parts of the army.

What about the US, EU, UK and the rest of the liberal democratic countries? They have in the past taken their cues from India, and will no doubt continue to be influenced by it. However, the total silence of these countries over recent days is both shameful and extraordinary.

On the one hand, there are all the signs of a popular revolution going on, and on the other hand, a government (which they have supported) willing to create anarchy in the country for the sake of staying in power. You would imagine that this would be the moment for them to finally put pressure on Sheikh Hasina to resign and take the appropriate steps to allow a peaceful move (with the likely assistance of the army) to a transitional government.

Perhaps something is happening in the background, but reports suggest that there is no unanimity amongst the international community on what to do. In addition, some embassies are said to have concerns about the safety of their own staff. Together, it appears right now that these countries are paralysed.

Not helping with this, of course, is the fact that the United States has no ambassador in position. Haas, the former ambassador who left the country just a few weeks ago, was a significant critic of the Awami League, and had he been in Dhaka now, the international response could well have been different.

How does one make the transition from an Awami League government to some kind of interim government? It is not straightforward, particularly if you want to avoid the impression of an army coup. In 2007, when the army did take over (and set up an interim government) there was no political government in place, only a caretaker one. It was therefore easy for the army to get the President to proclaim a state of emergency. Now, however, there is a prime minister, a Cabinet and a parliament in place - none of whom want to leave power.

This means that Sheikh Hasina has to agree to resign and also make the relevant moves to allow an interim government to take over. She clearly does not want to do anything of the sort at the moment - nor see a need to. It therefore appears that the protests have to reach a level where she has no option but to resign – or at least she realises it is in her own best interests to do so.

The army’s role in the transition will be important - to ensure law and order in the country and a move back to stability.

The next few days are likely to be decisive. One can only hope that Hasina and the Awami League do not want to go down fighting, resulting in an even higher toll of deaths and that she will agree sooner rather than later that she has to quit.

David Bergman is a UK-based journalist and can be followed on X at @TheDavidBergman