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Intrinsic Market Resilience (IMR)

Solicitation ID: DARPA-PS-26-138

Agency: DARPA/IPTO

Type: Solicitation
Deadline: 2026-12-07T14:00:00 ET
Eligibility: Maybe (Dual Approval Required)
Funding: TA1: $4.5M-$5.0M per award; TA2: $2.5M-$3.0M per award; TA3: $5M-$6.5M for a single award
Doc Type: PS
Clearance: TS/SCI
Program Manager: IMR@darpa.mil
Last Updated: 2026-09-25 16:04
Analyzed File: DARPA-PS-26-138.pdf

Eligibility Reasoning

FFRDCs: (1) FFRDCs must clearly demonstrate that the proposed work is not otherwise available from the private sector. (2) FFRDCs must provide a letter, on official letterhead from their sponsoring organization that, (a) cites the specific authority establishing their eligibility to propose to Government solicitations and compete with industry, and (b) certifies the FFRDC’s compliance with the associated FFRDC sponsor agreement’s terms and conditions. DARPA, under this solicitation, will not award separate contracts to FFRDCs as prime or subcontractors but will instead leverage their existing sponsors' agreements.

Note: This is an AI-generated summary...

Summary

The Intrinsic Market Resilience (IMR) program aims to develop methods to protect essential economic sectors from attacks that exploit the public interfaces of modern digital markets. The program's goal is to counter adversaries seeking to cause disruption, rather than just profit. The technical approach involves creating a prototype capability to automatically model market designs, identify hidden weaknesses, and recommend repairs. This will be achieved by using Large Language Models (LLMs) and other automation to translate informal market descriptions (e.g., regulatory filings) into formal, machine-analyzable models. Against these models, the program will formulate and assess "resilience conjectures"—mathematical statements about desirable market properties. If a conjecture is disproven, the system will generate a counterexample illustrating a specific weakness, which will then be used to refine the conjecture and recommend validated repairs. The program is divided into three Technical Areas (TAs): TA1 (Modeling and Analysis), TA2 (Resiliency and Repair), and TA3 (Test and Evaluation), which will independently validate the work of TA1 and TA2.

Overall Technical Areas

Economic Market ModelingLarge Language Model (LLM) AutomationFormal Methods for MarketsMachine-Analyzable Model GenerationResilience Conjecture FormulationAutomated Conjecture AnalysisComplex Systems AnalysisState Space Explosion MitigationAutomated Conjecture RefinementAutomated Market Repair RecommendationHolistic Impact AnalysisTest and Evaluation FrameworksModel Weakness SeedingModel and Repair Validation

Probable LBNL Areas

BSACSAEESAESAETA

Focus Areas

Example Priorities:
  • Translate informal, natural-language rules or other market design or implementation artifacts into formal models.
  • The use of large language models (LLMs) or other automation to create formal models and conjectures is a crucial aspect of the IMR program.
  • Develop mathematical statements that define how to avoid specific types of market weaknesses.
  • Against these models, IMR will formulate and assess conjectures that provide resilience to the systems in which the markets operate.
  • Developing tools that can handle many possible states in a real market model (the "state space explosion") and creating usable interfaces for analysis tools.
Specific Technical Skills:
Formal MethodsLarge Language Models (LLMs)Economic ModelingSystems ModelingAutomated ReasoningModel CheckingNatural Language ProcessingMarket DesignState-Space AnalysisComputational Logic
Potential PIs for this Area:
NameScoreOrganization
Eric Chagnon0.76CSA | AMCR | Mathematics · Large Language Models (LLMs)
Alan Sanstad0.75ETA | Energy Analysis | Energy Markets & Planning · Economic Modeling
Steven Hofmeyr0.75CSA | AMCR | Computer Science · Systems Modeling
Alexandre Bayen0.74ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · State-Space Analysis
Rafael Zamora-Resendiz0.74CSA | AMCR | Computer Science · Natural Language Processing
C. Anna Spurlock0.74ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Economic Modeling
Matthew Henderson0.74CSA | SciData | Data Science Applications · Natural Language Processing
Kameshwar Poolla0.73ETA | ESDR | Energy Storage & Dist Dpt · State-Space Analysis
Eric O'Shaughnessy0.73ETA | Energy Analysis | Energy Markets & Planning · Market Design
Koushik Sen0.72CSA | AMCR | Computer Science · Formal Methods
Example Priorities:
  • Refine conjectures with tools that can automatically and intelligently focus conjectures on the most interesting behaviors.
  • Once a weakness is identified in a market, recommend a repair that is comprehensive and addresses the root cause of an identified weakness.
  • These counterexamples will then be used to improve the conjecture, improve the market model, or suggest a repair to improve the actual market.
  • A holistic impact analysis is crucial to ensure that recommended repairs would not negatively impact overall market operation or inadvertently create new, unforeseen weaknesses.
Specific Technical Skills:
Automated Program RepairAI PlanningCounterexample-Guided RefinementRoot Cause AnalysisFormal VerificationAutomated SynthesisImpact AnalysisConstraint SolvingOptimization Algorithms
Potential PIs for this Area:
NameScoreOrganization
Thomas Hendrickson0.74ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Impact Analysis
Koushik Sen0.74CSA | AMCR | Computer Science · Counterexample-Guided Refinement
Stefan M. Wild0.74CSA | Computing · Optimization Algorithms
Eric Masanet0.73ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Root Cause Analysis
Pengcheng Xie0.73CSA | AMCR | Mathematics · Optimization Algorithms
Gregory Lemieux0.72EESA | CESD | Earth System Sciences · Automated Program Repair
Sam Murthy0.72ETA | Energy Analysis | Energy Markets & Planning · AI Planning
Xiaoye Sherry Li0.71CSA | AMCR | Applied Mathematics · Constraint Solving
Zachary Needell0.71ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · AI Planning
Doru Adrian Thom Popovici0.71CSA | AMCR | Computer Science · Automated Synthesis
Example Priorities:
  • Creates a framework to objectively measure how well that work was done.
  • This involves defining what constitutes a valid market model, a conjecture that has a positive effect on the system in which the market operates, and an effective repair.
  • A second challenge is to develop a method for thoroughly testing the system's ability to find and repair weaknesses, by seeding weaknesses in a market model for purposes of evaluation.
  • By deliberately inserting known flaws into market models, the performer will test whether IMR tools successfully detect and repair them, measuring the completeness of the repair process.
Specific Technical Skills:
Test and Evaluation (T&E)Validation and Verification (V&V)MetrologyFault InjectionModel SeedingEconomic Systems AnalysisFramework DevelopmentQuantitative AnalysisRisk Assessment
Potential PIs for this Area:
NameScoreOrganization
Maximilian Auffhammer0.76ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Economic Systems Analysis
Ian Lacey0.76ESA | ALS | Photon Science Development · Metrology
Minliang Yang0.75ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Economic Systems Analysis
Thomas Hendrickson0.75ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Risk Assessment
Eric Masanet0.75ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Test and Evaluation (T&E)
Koushik Sen0.74CSA | AMCR | Computer Science · Fault Injection
Alexandre Bayen0.74ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Validation and Verification (V&V)
Holger Mueller0.73BSA | Molecular Biophysics & Integrated Bioimaging | Structural Biology Dept · Metrology
Zachary Needell0.73ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Framework Development
Ryan Knox0.72EESA | CESD | Earth System Sciences · Model Seeding

Potential LBNL PIs (Overall)

Note on PI Matching: These suggestions are generated through an AI-driven semantic analysis of LBNL staff profiles.

NameScoreOrganization
Eric Chagnon0.77CSA | AMCR | Mathematics · Large Language Model (LLM) Automation
Alan Sanstad0.76ETA | Energy Analysis | Energy Markets & Planning · Economic Market Modeling
Alexandre Bayen0.75ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Complex Systems Analysis
Eric O'Shaughnessy0.75ETA | Energy Analysis | Energy Markets & Planning · Automated Market Repair Recommendation
Naïm Darghouth0.74ETA | Energy Analysis | Energy Markets & Planning · Formal Methods for Markets
Thomas Hendrickson0.74ETA | Energy Analysis | Systems & Energy Tech Analysis · Holistic Impact Analysis
Steven Hofmeyr0.74CSA | AMCR | Computer Science · State Space Explosion Mitigation
Myles Collins0.73ETA | Energy Analysis | Energy Markets & Planning · Resilience Conjecture Formulation
Koushik Sen0.72CSA | AMCR | Computer Science · Test and Evaluation Frameworks
Gregory Lemieux0.72EESA | CESD | Earth System Sciences · Machine-Analyzable Model Generation

Fundamental Research Exemption (FRE)

As of the date of publication of this solicitation, the Government expects that program goals as described herein may be met by proposed efforts for fundamental research and non-fundamental research. Some proposed research may present a high likelihood of disclosing performance characteristics technologies that are unique and critical to defense. Based on the anticipated type of proposer (e.g., university or industry) and the nature of the solicited work, the Government expects that some awards will include restrictions on the resultant research that will require the awardee to seek DARPA permission before publishing any information or results relative to the program.