/src/quantlib/ql/experimental/credit/distribution.cpp
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1 | | /* -*- mode: c++; tab-width: 4; indent-tabs-mode: nil; c-basic-offset: 4 -*- */ |
2 | | |
3 | | /* |
4 | | Copyright (C) 2008 Roland Lichters |
5 | | |
6 | | This file is part of QuantLib, a free-software/open-source library |
7 | | for financial quantitative analysts and developers - http://quantlib.org/ |
8 | | |
9 | | QuantLib is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it |
10 | | under the terms of the QuantLib license. You should have received a |
11 | | copy of the license along with this program; if not, please email |
12 | | <quantlib-dev@lists.sf.net>. The license is also available online at |
13 | | <https://www.quantlib.org/license.shtml>. |
14 | | |
15 | | This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT |
16 | | ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS |
17 | | FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the license for more details. |
18 | | */ |
19 | | |
20 | | /*! \file distribution.cpp |
21 | | \brief Discretized probability density and cumulative probability |
22 | | */ |
23 | | |
24 | | #include <ql/experimental/credit/distribution.hpp> |
25 | | #include <ql/math/comparison.hpp> |
26 | | #include <ql/errors.hpp> |
27 | | #include <algorithm> |
28 | | #include <functional> |
29 | | |
30 | | namespace QuantLib { |
31 | | |
32 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
33 | | Distribution::Distribution (int nBuckets, Real xmin, Real xmax) |
34 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
35 | 0 | : size_(nBuckets), |
36 | 0 | xmin_(xmin), xmax_(xmax), count_(nBuckets), |
37 | 0 | x_(nBuckets,0), dx_(nBuckets,0), |
38 | 0 | density_(nBuckets,0), |
39 | 0 | cumulativeDensity_(nBuckets,0), |
40 | 0 | excessProbability_(nBuckets,0), |
41 | 0 | cumulativeExcessProbability_(nBuckets,0), |
42 | 0 | average_(nBuckets,0), |
43 | 0 | overFlow_(0), underFlow_(0), |
44 | 0 | isNormalized_(false) { |
45 | 0 | for (int i = 0; i < nBuckets; i++) { |
46 | 0 | dx_[i] = (xmax - xmin) / nBuckets; |
47 | 0 | x_[i] = (i == 0 ? xmin : x_[i-1] + dx_[i-1]); |
48 | 0 | } |
49 | | // ensure we match exactly the domain, otherwise we might fail the |
50 | | // locate test because of precission mismatches |
51 | 0 | dx_.back() = xmax - x_.back(); |
52 | 0 | } |
53 | | |
54 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
55 | 0 | int Distribution::locate (Real x) { |
56 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
57 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE ((x >= x_.front() || close(x, x_.front())) && |
58 | 0 | (x <= x_.back() + dx_.back() |
59 | 0 | || close(x, x_.back() + dx_.back())), |
60 | 0 | "coordinate " << x |
61 | 0 | << " out of range [" << x_.front() << "; " |
62 | 0 | << x_.back() + dx_.back() << "]"); |
63 | 0 | for (Size i = 0; i < x_.size(); i++) { |
64 | 0 | if (x_[i] > x) |
65 | 0 | return i - 1; |
66 | 0 | } |
67 | 0 | return x_.size() - 1; |
68 | 0 | } |
69 | | |
70 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
71 | 0 | Real Distribution::dx (Real x) { |
72 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
73 | 0 | int i = locate (x); |
74 | 0 | return dx_[i]; |
75 | 0 | } |
76 | | |
77 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
78 | 0 | void Distribution::add (Real value) { |
79 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
80 | 0 | isNormalized_ = false; |
81 | 0 | if (value < x_.front()) underFlow_++; |
82 | 0 | else { |
83 | 0 | for (Size i = 0; i < count_.size(); i++) { |
84 | 0 | if (x_[i] + dx_[i] > value) { |
85 | 0 | count_[i]++; |
86 | 0 | average_[i] += value; |
87 | 0 | return; |
88 | 0 | } |
89 | 0 | } |
90 | 0 | overFlow_++; |
91 | 0 | } |
92 | 0 | } |
93 | | |
94 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
95 | 0 | void Distribution::addDensity (int bucket, Real value) { |
96 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
97 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (bucket >= 0 && bucket < size_, "bucket out of range"); |
98 | 0 | isNormalized_ = false; |
99 | 0 | density_[bucket] += value; |
100 | 0 | } |
101 | | |
102 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
103 | 0 | void Distribution::addAverage (int bucket, Real value) { |
104 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
105 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (bucket >= 0 && bucket < size_, "bucket out of range"); |
106 | 0 | isNormalized_ = false; |
107 | 0 | average_[bucket] += value; |
108 | 0 | } |
109 | | |
110 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
111 | 0 | void Distribution::normalize () { |
112 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
113 | 0 | if (isNormalized_) |
114 | 0 | return; |
115 | | |
116 | 0 | int count = underFlow_ + overFlow_; |
117 | 0 | for (int i = 0; i < size_; i++) |
118 | 0 | count += count_[i]; |
119 | |
|
120 | 0 | excessProbability_[0] = 1.0; |
121 | 0 | cumulativeExcessProbability_[0] = 0.0; |
122 | 0 | for (int i = 0; i < size_; i++) { |
123 | 0 | if (count > 0) { |
124 | 0 | density_[i] = 1.0 / dx_[i] * count_[i] / count; |
125 | 0 | if (count_[i] > 0) |
126 | 0 | average_[i] /= count_[i]; |
127 | 0 | } |
128 | 0 | if (density_[i] == 0.0) |
129 | 0 | average_[i] = x_[i] + dx_[i]/2; |
130 | |
|
131 | 0 | cumulativeDensity_[i] = density_[i] * dx_[i]; |
132 | 0 | if (i > 0) { |
133 | 0 | cumulativeDensity_[i] += cumulativeDensity_[i-1]; |
134 | 0 | excessProbability_[i] = 1.0 - cumulativeDensity_[i-1]; |
135 | | // excessProbability_[i] = excessProbability_[i-1] |
136 | | // - density_[i-1] * dx_[i-1]; |
137 | | // cumulativeExcessProbability_[i] |
138 | | // = (excessProbability_[i-1] + |
139 | | // excessProbability_[i]) / 2 * dx_[i-1] |
140 | | // + cumulativeExcessProbability_[i-1]; |
141 | 0 | cumulativeExcessProbability_[i] |
142 | 0 | = excessProbability_[i-1] * dx_[i-1] |
143 | 0 | + cumulativeExcessProbability_[i-1]; |
144 | 0 | } |
145 | 0 | } |
146 | |
|
147 | 0 | isNormalized_ = true; |
148 | 0 | } |
149 | | |
150 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
151 | 0 | Real Distribution::confidenceLevel (Real quantil) { |
152 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
153 | 0 | normalize(); |
154 | 0 | for (int i = 0; i < size_; i++) { |
155 | 0 | if (cumulativeDensity_[i] > quantil) |
156 | 0 | return x_[i] + dx_[i]; |
157 | 0 | } |
158 | 0 | return x_.back() + dx_.back(); |
159 | 0 | } |
160 | | |
161 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
162 | 0 | Real Distribution::expectedValue () { |
163 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
164 | 0 | normalize(); |
165 | 0 | Real expected = 0; |
166 | 0 | for (int i = 0; i < size_; i++) { |
167 | 0 | Real x = x_[i] + dx_[i]/2; |
168 | 0 | expected += x * dx_[i] * density_[i]; |
169 | 0 | } |
170 | 0 | return expected; |
171 | 0 | } |
172 | | |
173 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
174 | 0 | Real Distribution::trancheExpectedValue (Real a, Real d) { |
175 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
176 | 0 | normalize(); |
177 | 0 | Real expected = 0; |
178 | 0 | for (int i = 0; i < size_; i++) { |
179 | 0 | Real x = x_[i] + dx_[i]/2; |
180 | 0 | if (x < a) |
181 | 0 | continue; |
182 | 0 | if (x > d) |
183 | 0 | break; |
184 | 0 | expected += (x - a) * dx_[i] * density_[i]; |
185 | 0 | } |
186 | |
|
187 | 0 | expected += (d - a) * (1.0 - cumulativeDensity (d)); |
188 | |
|
189 | 0 | return expected; |
190 | 0 | } |
191 | | |
192 | | // Real Distribution::cumulativeExcessProbability (Real a, Real b) { |
193 | | // //normalize(); |
194 | | // Real integral = 0.0; |
195 | | // for (int i = 0; i < size_; i++) { |
196 | | // if (x_[i] >= b) break; |
197 | | // if (x_[i] >= a) |
198 | | // integral += dx_[i] * excessProbability_[i]; |
199 | | // } |
200 | | // return integral; |
201 | | // } |
202 | | |
203 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
204 | 0 | Real Distribution::cumulativeExcessProbability (Real a, Real b) { |
205 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
206 | 0 | normalize(); |
207 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (b <= xmax_, |
208 | 0 | "end of interval " << b << " out of range [" |
209 | 0 | << xmin_ << ", " << xmax_ << "]"); |
210 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (a >= xmin_, |
211 | 0 | "start of interval " << a << " out of range [" |
212 | 0 | << xmin_ << ", " << xmax_ << "]"); |
213 | | |
214 | 0 | int i = locate (a); |
215 | 0 | int j = locate (b); |
216 | 0 | return cumulativeExcessProbability_[j]-cumulativeExcessProbability_[i]; |
217 | 0 | } |
218 | | |
219 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
220 | 0 | Real Distribution::cumulativeDensity (Real x) { |
221 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
222 | 0 | Real tiny = dx_.back() * 1e-3; |
223 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (x > 0, "x must be positive"); |
224 | 0 | normalize(); |
225 | 0 | for (int i = 0; i < size_; i++) { |
226 | 0 | if (x_[i] + dx_[i] + tiny >= x) |
227 | 0 | return ((x - x_[i]) * cumulativeDensity_[i] |
228 | 0 | + (x_[i] + dx_[i] - x) * cumulativeDensity_[i-1]) / dx_[i]; |
229 | 0 | } |
230 | 0 | QL_FAIL ("x = " << x << " beyond distribution cutoff " |
231 | 0 | << x_.back() + dx_.back()); |
232 | 0 | } |
233 | | |
234 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
235 | | // Dangerous to perform calls to members after this; transform and clone? |
236 | 0 | void Distribution::tranche (Real attachmentPoint, Real detachmentPoint) { |
237 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
238 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (attachmentPoint < detachmentPoint, |
239 | 0 | "attachment >= detachment point"); |
240 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (x_.back() > attachmentPoint && |
241 | 0 | x_.back()+dx_.back() >= detachmentPoint, |
242 | 0 | "attachment or detachment too large"); |
243 | | |
244 | 0 | normalize(); |
245 | | |
246 | | // shift |
247 | 0 | while (x_[0] < attachmentPoint) { |
248 | 0 | x_.erase(x_.begin()); |
249 | 0 | dx_.erase(dx_.begin()); |
250 | 0 | count_.erase(count_.begin()); |
251 | 0 | density_.erase(density_.begin()); |
252 | 0 | cumulativeDensity_.erase(cumulativeDensity_.begin()); |
253 | 0 | excessProbability_.erase(excessProbability_.begin()); |
254 | 0 | } |
255 | | |
256 | | // remove losses over detachment point: |
257 | 0 | auto detachPosit = std::find_if(x_.begin(), x_.end(), [=](Real x){ return x > detachmentPoint; }); |
258 | 0 | if(detachPosit != x_.end()) |
259 | 0 | x_.erase(detachPosit + 1, x_.end()); |
260 | |
|
261 | 0 | size_ = x_.size(); |
262 | 0 | cumulativeDensity_.erase(cumulativeDensity_.begin() + size_, |
263 | 0 | cumulativeDensity_.end()); |
264 | 0 | cumulativeDensity_.back() = 1.; |
265 | 0 | count_.erase(count_.begin() + size_, count_.end()); |
266 | 0 | dx_.erase(dx_.begin() + size_, dx_.end()); |
267 | | |
268 | | // truncate |
269 | 0 | for (Real& i : x_) { |
270 | 0 | i = std::min(std::max(i - attachmentPoint, 0.), detachmentPoint - attachmentPoint); |
271 | 0 | } |
272 | |
|
273 | 0 | density_.clear(); |
274 | 0 | excessProbability_.clear(); |
275 | 0 | cumulativeExcessProbability_.clear(); //? reuse? |
276 | 0 | density_.push_back((cumulativeDensity_[0]-0.)/dx_[0]); |
277 | 0 | excessProbability_.push_back(1.); |
278 | 0 | for(Integer i=1; i<size_-1; i++) { |
279 | 0 | excessProbability_.push_back(1.-cumulativeDensity_[i-1]); |
280 | 0 | density_.push_back((cumulativeDensity_[i]- |
281 | 0 | cumulativeDensity_[i-1])/dx_[i]); |
282 | 0 | } |
283 | 0 | excessProbability_.push_back(1.-cumulativeDensity_.back()); |
284 | 0 | density_.push_back((1.-cumulativeDensity_.back())/dx_.back()); |
285 | 0 | } |
286 | | |
287 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
288 | | Distribution ManipulateDistribution::convolve (const Distribution& d1, |
289 | 0 | const Distribution& d2) { |
290 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
291 | | // force equal constant bucket sizes |
292 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (d1.dx_[0] == d2.dx_[0], "bucket sizes differ in d1 and d2"); |
293 | 0 | for (Size i = 1; i < d1.size(); i++) |
294 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (d1.dx_[i] == d1.dx_[i-1], "bucket size varies in d1"); |
295 | 0 | for (Size i = 1; i < d2.size(); i++) |
296 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (d2.dx_[i] == d2.dx_[i-1], "bucket size varies in d2"); |
297 | | |
298 | | // force offset 0 |
299 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE (d1.xmin_ == 0.0 && d2.xmin_ == 0.0, |
300 | 0 | "distributions offset larger than 0"); |
301 | | |
302 | 0 | Distribution dist(d1.size() + d2.size() - 1, |
303 | 0 | 0.0, // assuming both distributions have xmin = 0 |
304 | 0 | d1.xmax_ + d2.xmax_); |
305 | |
|
306 | 0 | for (Size i1 = 0; i1 < d1.size(); i1++) { |
307 | 0 | Real dx = d1.dx_[i1]; |
308 | 0 | for (Size i2 = 0; i2 < d2.size(); i2++) |
309 | 0 | dist.density_[i1+i2] = d1.density_[i1] * d2.density_[i2] * dx; |
310 | 0 | } |
311 | | |
312 | | // update cumulated and excess |
313 | 0 | dist.excessProbability_[0] = 1.0; |
314 | 0 | for (Size i = 0; i < dist.size(); i++) { |
315 | 0 | dist.cumulativeDensity_[i] = dist.density_[i] * dist.dx_[i]; |
316 | 0 | if (i > 0) { |
317 | 0 | dist.cumulativeDensity_[i] += dist.cumulativeDensity_[i-1]; |
318 | 0 | dist.excessProbability_[i] = dist.excessProbability_[i-1] |
319 | 0 | - dist.density_[i-1] * dist.dx_[i-1]; |
320 | 0 | } |
321 | 0 | } |
322 | |
|
323 | 0 | return dist; |
324 | 0 | } |
325 | | |
326 | | |
327 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
328 | 0 | Real Distribution::expectedShortfall (Real percValue) { |
329 | | //------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
330 | 0 | QL_REQUIRE(percValue >= 0. && percValue <= 1., |
331 | 0 | "Incorrect percentile"); |
332 | 0 | normalize(); |
333 | 0 | Real expected = 0; |
334 | 0 | Integer iVal = locate(confidenceLevel(percValue)); |
335 | |
|
336 | 0 | if(iVal == size_-1) return x_.back(); |
337 | | |
338 | 0 | for (int i = iVal; i < size_; i++) |
339 | 0 | expected += x_[i] * |
340 | 0 | (cumulativeDensity_[i] - cumulativeDensity_[i-1]); |
341 | 0 | return expected/(1.-cumulativeDensity_.at(iVal)); |
342 | 0 | } |
343 | | |
344 | | } |