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<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="EN">
  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">pbio</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS Biol</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosbiol</journal-id><!--===== Grouping journal title elements =====--><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS Biology</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1544-9173</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1545-7885</issn><publisher>
        <publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name>
        <publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc>
      </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088</article-id><article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Research Article</subject>
        </subj-group>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline">
          <subject>Computational Biology</subject>
          <subject>Evolutionary Biology</subject>
          <subject>Genetics and Genomics</subject>
          <subject>Evolutionary Biology/Paleontology</subject>
          <subject>Virology</subject>
          <subject>Ecology</subject>
          <subject>Mathematics/Statistics</subject>
        </subj-group>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="System Taxonomy">
          <subject>Eubacteria</subject>
          <subject>Yeast and Fungi</subject>
          <subject>Plants</subject>
          <subject>Animals</subject>
          <subject>Primates</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories><title-group><article-title>Relaxed Phylogenetics and Dating with Confidence</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Relaxed Phylogenetics</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes" xlink:type="simple">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Drummond</surname>
            <given-names>Alexei J</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
            <sup>1</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="fn" rid="n2">
            <sup>¤</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Ho</surname>
            <given-names>Simon Y. W</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
            <sup>1</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Phillips</surname>
            <given-names>Matthew J</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
            <sup>1</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes" xlink:type="simple">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Rambaut</surname>
            <given-names>Andrew</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
            <sup>1</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">
            <sup>*</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
        <label>1</label>
        <addr-line>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom </addr-line>
      </aff><contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="editor" xlink:type="simple">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Penny</surname>
            <given-names>David</given-names>
          </name>
          <role>Academic Editor</role>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"/>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group><aff id="edit1">Massey University, New Zealand</aff><author-notes>
        <corresp id="cor1">* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: <email xlink:type="simple">andrew.rambaut@zoo.ox.ac.uk</email></corresp>
        <fn fn-type="con" id="n1">
          <p> AJD and AR conceived the original idea, developed the software, and performed the
            marsupial and virus data analyses. SYWH developed the simulation software, performed the
            simulation analysis, developed the use of prior distributions for calibrating node ages,
            and performed the analyses on the bacteria, yeast, plant, metazoan, and primate
            datasets. MJP collected and curated the marsupial dataset and provided expert
            calibration information. AJD, SYWH, MJP, and AR contributed to the writing of the
            article. </p>
        </fn>
        <fn fn-type="current-aff" id="n2">
          <p>¤ Current address: Department of Computer Science, University of Auckland,
            Auckland, New Zealand</p>
        </fn>
      <fn fn-type="conflict">
        <p> The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. </p>
      </fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub">
        <month>5</month>
        <year>2006</year>
      </pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub">
        <day>14</day>
        <month>3</month>
        <year>2006</year>
      </pub-date><volume>4</volume><issue>5</issue><elocation-id>e88</elocation-id><history>
        <date date-type="received">
          <day>16</day>
          <month>5</month>
          <year>2005</year>
        </date>
        <date date-type="accepted">
          <day>23</day>
          <month>1</month>
          <year>2006</year>
        </date>
      </history><!--===== Grouping copyright info into permissions =====--><permissions><copyright-year>2006</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Drummond et al</copyright-holder><license><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the
        terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use,
        distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are
        credited.</license-p></license></permissions><related-article page="e106" related-article-type="companion" vol="4" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040106" xlink:title="synopsis" xlink:type="simple">
        <article-title>Relaxing the Clock Brings Time Back into Phylogenetics</article-title>
      </related-article><related-article related-article-type="companion" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040151" xlink:type="simple">
        <article-title>Model Selection and the Molecular Clock</article-title>
      </related-article><abstract>
        <p>In phylogenetics, the unrooted model of phylogeny and the strict molecular clock model
          are two extremes of a continuum. Despite their dominance in phylogenetic inference, it is
          evident that both are biologically unrealistic and that the real evolutionary process lies
          between these two extremes. Fortunately, intermediate models employing relaxed molecular
          clocks have been described. These models open the gate to a new field of
          “relaxed phylogenetics.” Here we introduce a new approach to
          performing relaxed phylogenetic analysis. We describe how it can be used to estimate
          phylogenies and divergence times in the face of uncertainty in evolutionary rates and
          calibration times. Our approach also provides a means for measuring the clocklikeness of
          datasets and comparing this measure between different genes and phylogenies. We find no
          significant rate autocorrelation among branches in three large datasets, suggesting that
          autocorrelated models are not necessarily suitable for these data. In addition, we place
          these datasets on the continuum of clocklikeness between a strict molecular clock and the
          alternative unrooted extreme. Finally, we present analyses of 102 bacterial, 106 yeast, 61
          plant, 99 metazoan, and 500 primate alignments. From these we conclude that our method is
          phylogenetically more accurate and precise than the traditional unrooted model while
          adding the ability to infer a timescale to evolution.</p>
      </abstract><abstract abstract-type="toc">
        <p>This new method can simultaneously infer phylogeny and estimate the molecular clock. The
          authors run their method on several large alignments to show its phylogenetic accuracy and
          ability to infer a timescale to evolution.</p>
      </abstract><funding-group><funding-statement> AJD was supported by the Wellcome Trust. SYWH was supported by a Commonwealth (Oxford)
          Scholarship from the Commonwealth Scholarship Commission and a Domus Research Studentship
          and Edward Penley Abraham Cephalosporin Scholarship from Linacre College, Oxford. AR is
          supported by a University Research Fellowship from The Royal Society. </funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="s1">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>From obscure beginnings, phylogenetics has become an essential tool for understanding
        molecular sequence variation. In the past decade, huge progress has been made in developing
        methods for inferring phylogenies and estimating divergence dates. This development has been
        characterized by increases, both in the complexity of the models used to describe molecular
        sequence evolution, and in the sophistication of the methods for analyzing these new models.
        Nevertheless, a well-known problem that has persistently troubled phylogenetic inference is
        that of substitution rate variation among lineages. In order to infer divergence dates, it
        is convenient to assume a constant rate of evolution throughout the tree [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b001">1</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b002">2</xref>]. This practice has been regularly challenged by
        results from datasets showing considerable departures from clocklike evolution
          [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b003">3</xref>–<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b005">5</xref>], and rate variation among
        lineages can seriously mislead not only divergence date estimation [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b006">6</xref>] but also phylogenetic inference
        (e.g., [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b007">7</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b008">8</xref>]). </p>
      <p>Such problems with the molecular clock hypothesis have resulted in it being abandoned
        almost entirely for phylogenetic inference in favor of a model that assumes that every
        branch has an independent rate of molecular evolution. Under such an assumption, it is
        possible to infer phylogenies (e.g., [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b009">9</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b010">10</xref>]), but not to
        estimate molecular rates or divergence times, because the individual contributions of rate
        and time to molecular evolution cannot be separated. If the rate and time along each branch
        can only be estimated as their product, then the position of the root of the tree cannot be
        estimated without additional assumptions such as an outgroup or a non-reversible
        substitution process. This unrooted alternative to the molecular clock was first suggested
        by Felsenstein [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b010">10</xref>]
        and has formed the basis of all modern phylogenetic inference and is implemented in all
        major phylogenetic packages (e.g., PHYLIP [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b011">11</xref>], PAUP* [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b012">12</xref>], and MrBayes [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b009">9</xref>]). </p>
      <p>Recently, it has been realized that less drastic alternatives to the unrooted model of
        phylogeny may exist. Instead of dispensing with the molecular clock entirely, attempts have
        been made to relax the molecular clock assumption by allowing the rate to vary across the
        tree [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b013">13</xref>–<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b015">15</xref>]. For example, local molecular
        clock models estimate a separate molecular rate for each user-circumscribed group of
        branches in the tree [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b006">6</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b013">13</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b016">16</xref>]. However, assigning branches to different
        groups can be a difficult exercise if the number of sequences is large or if there is
        considerable uncertainty about the phylogenetic relationships among the taxa. Essentially,
        such models are only useful in cases in which there is a strong prior hypothesis that the
        rate of specific taxa will differ from the rest of the tree [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b006">6</xref>]. </p>
      <p>Bayesian relaxed-clock methods, including those published by Thorne et al. [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b015">15</xref>] and Aris-Brosou and Yang
          [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b017">17</xref>], present an
        enticing alternative to local clock models. These model the molecular rate among lineages as
        varying in an autocorrelated manner, with the rate in each branch being drawn (a priori)
        from a parametric distribution whose mean is a function of the rate on the parent branch.
        For example, a lognormal distribution can be employed with the variance scaled relative to
        the length of the branch in units of time, implying that the evolutionary rate changes
        continuously along the branch. Alternatively, the use of an exponential distribution would
        imply that changes occurred at the nodes, with the size of the change being independent of
        the branch length. </p>
      <p>Autocorrelation of rates from ancestral to descendant lineages will occur whenever the
        largest component of rate variation is due to inherited factors, whether these are
        life-history traits or biochemical mechanisms. As one looks over smaller and smaller
        timescales, the differences in such inherited factors become smaller relative to the
        variance caused by stochastic and uninherited factors (such as environmental or chance
        events). An alternative way of considering this is that the autocorrelation is so strong
        that very little of the variation in rate can be attributed to inherited factors. At the
        other extreme, over very long timescales, we might expect so much variation in the inherited
        determinants of rate that the autocorrelation from lineage to lineage begins to break down,
        especially with sparse taxon sampling. However, it is difficult to predict where the
        boundaries between these effects are and thus to specify what the degree of autocorrelation
        will be.</p>
      <p>Relaxed-clock models present a potentially useful method for removing the assumption of a
        strict molecular clock, but a major shortcoming of the methods that have been proposed thus
        far is that they require the user to specify the tree topology. This is a problem because in
        many cases, important parts of the tree may be uncertain or unresolved, resulting in a
        number of plausible tree topologies. Furthermore, a molecular clock may have been assumed
        when estimating the input tree (for example to find a root), but rate variation among
        lineages can adversely affect phylogenetic inference (e.g., [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b007">7</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b008">8</xref>]). In some settings, the tree topology may actually be a nuisance
        parameter and some other aspect of the model (such as the variance in evolutionary rate, the
        effective population size, or the age of the most recent common ancestor) is the object of
        interest. Lastly, the assumption of a relaxed clock will alter the posterior probabilities
        of alternative tree topologies, so that the best tree under a relaxed-clock model may differ
        from the best tree under an unrooted or strict molecular clock model. For these reasons, a
        “relaxed phylogenetics” approach, in which the phylogeny and the
        divergence dates are co-estimated under a relaxed molecular clock, is preferred
          [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b018">18</xref>]. </p>
      <p>Here we present a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b019">19</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b020">20</xref>] method for performing relaxed phylogenetics that is able to co-estimate
        phylogeny and divergence times under a new class of relaxed-clock models. Its utility is
        demonstrated through simulation and on 871 real datasets. When absolute rates and divergence
        dates are estimated, we use probabilistic calibration priors, rather than point
        calibrations, since these more appropriately incorporate calibration uncertainties. We have
        implemented this method in the application BEAST [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b021">21</xref>] in which they can be used in conjunction with
        a wide range of other evolutionary models. </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="s2">
      <title>Results</title>
      <sec id="s2a">
        <title>Simulations</title>
        <p>We generated alignments of nine nucleotide sequences, each 1,000 nucleotides in length,
          on the rooted tree in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="pbio-0040088-g001">Figure 1</xref>. The
          outgroup sequence, O, is only used for rooting; otherwise, the tree is symmetric.
          Simulations were performed using the program RateEvolver v1.0 [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b022">22</xref>], which can simulate
          nucleotide substitution under different rate conditions, including constant (molecular
          clock), autocorrelated, and uncorrelated rates. </p>
        <fig id="pbio-0040088-g001" position="float">
          <object-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.g001</object-id>
          <label>Figure 1</label>
          <caption>
            <title>The Rooted Binary Tree Used for Simulating Sequence Evolution</title>
            <p>The timescale is drawn in arbitrary time units. Apart from the branch leading to the
              outgroup, sequence O, all branches are five time units in length.</p>
          </caption>
          <graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.g001" xlink:type="simple"/>
        </fig>
        <p>Fifty sequence alignments were generated under each of five sets of rate variation
          models: (1) Rates were fixed at 0.01 average substitutions per site per time unit
          throughout the tree (i.e., rates conformed to a molecular clock) (CLOC); (2) rates were
          lognormally autocorrelated among branches, with an ancestral rate of 0.01 average
          substitutions per site per time unit and a variance parameter (
            <italic>S</italic><sup>2</sup>) of 0.1, so that <italic>S</italic><sup>2</sup>
          <italic>t = 0.5</italic> (ACLN); (3) rates were exponentially autocorrelated among
          branches, with an ancestral rate of 0.01 average substitutions per site (ACED); (4) rates
          were uncorrelated, with the rate in each branch independently drawn from a lognormal
          distribution with mean 0.01 and variance parameter of 0.5 (UCLN); and (5) rates were
          uncorrelated, with the rate in each branch independently drawn from an exponential
          distribution with mean (and therefore standard deviation) of 0.01 (UCED). </p>
        <p>A normally distributed calibration prior with mean 20.0 and standard deviation 1.0 was
          specified for the age of the root of the tree, and the tree topology was fixed. Each
          alignment was analyzed using BEAST [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b021">21</xref>] with 5,000,000 steps, following a discarded burn-in of 500,000
          steps. In each analysis, convergence of the chain to the stationary distribution was
          confirmed by inspection of the MCMC samples using the program Tracer 1.2 [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b023">23</xref>]. This application analyses
          posterior samples of continuous parameters from Bayesian MCMCs to allow visual inspection
          of the chain behavior, estimating of the effective sample size of parameters and the
          plotting of marginal posterior densities. The effective sample size is the number of
          independent samples that would be the equivalent to the autocorrelated samples produced by
          the MCMC. This provides a measure of whether the chain has been run for an adequate length
          (for example, if the effective sample sizes of all continuous parameters are greater than
          200). </p>
        <p>In four of the five cases, the uncorrelated relaxed-clock approach to estimating rates
          performed well (<xref ref-type="table" rid="pbio-0040088-t001">Table 1</xref>). In all
          cases, the rate estimates made under the UCED had the largest 95% highest
          posterior densities (HPDs). This can be most clearly seen in the rates estimated from
          sequences generated under a molecular clock, with the average 95% HPD size
          under the UCED model exceeding that under the UCLN model by an order of magnitude. </p>
        <table-wrap id="pbio-0040088-t001" position="float"><object-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.t001</object-id><label>Table 1</label><caption>
            <title>The Proportion of Datasets (50 Simulations for Each of Five Models) for Which the
              True Rate Was within the 95% HPD Limits at the Given Branch</title>
          </caption><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.t001" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <table><thead><TR><TD align="left" valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Simulated Model</TD><TD COLSPAN="3" valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1"><HR>CLOC</TD><TD COLSPAN="3" valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1"><HR>ACLN</TD><TD COLSPAN="3" valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1"><HR>ACED</TD><TD COLSPAN="3" valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1"><HR>UCLN</TD><TD COLSPAN="3" valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1"><HR>UCED</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Analyzed Model</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>CLOC</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCED</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCLN</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>CLOC</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCED</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCLN</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>CLOC</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCED</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCLN</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>CLOC</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCED</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCLN</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>CLOC</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCED</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCLN</TD></TR></thead><tbody><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Sequence A</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.12</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.92</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.02</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.58</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.36</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.18</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.94</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.02</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.94</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.78</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Sequence B</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.02</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.94</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.06</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.66</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.38</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.06</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.10</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.98</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.80</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Sequence C</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.12</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.94</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.02</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.58</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.46</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.10</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.90</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.02</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.92</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Sequence D</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.92</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.02</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.62</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.52</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.10</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.90</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.16</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.94</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.84</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Sequence E</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.90</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.62</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.50</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.06</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.90</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.10</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.94</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.82</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Sequence F</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.98</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.90</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.06</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.70</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.38</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.10</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.04</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.74</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Sequence G</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.12</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.98</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.88</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.02</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.72</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.56</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.20</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.92</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.10</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.80</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Sequence H</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.06</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.92</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.06</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.72</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.50</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.12</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.90</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.04</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.80</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Node 09</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.98</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.04</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.78</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.54</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.06</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.94</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.10</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.98</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.84</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Node 10</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.76</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.62</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.14</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.18</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.80</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Node 11</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.98</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.04</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.90</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.68</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.12</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.92</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.06</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.84</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Node 12</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.10</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.98</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.98</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.02</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.80</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.62</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.16</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.94</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.98</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.82</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Node 13</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.02</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.84</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.78</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.92</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.18</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.82</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Node 14</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.06</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.98</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.10</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.90</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.76</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.14</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.96</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.88</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Overall</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.08<sup>a</sup></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.99</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.95</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.03<sup>a</sup></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.73<sup>a</sup></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.55<sup>a</sup></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.11<sup>a</sup></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1.00</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.93</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.09<sup>a</sup></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.97</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.82<sup>a</sup></TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Average HPD size</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.002</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.056</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.006</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.006</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.047</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.024</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.003</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.022</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.016</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.009</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.049</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.023</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.002</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.025</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.025</TD></TR></tbody></table> --><!-- <table-wrap-foot> 
						<fn id="nt101">
							<p>
								<p>Each cell reports the results at the branch above the specified node for a particular combination of simulated and analyzed rate models. Node labels correspond to those given in Figure 1. The simulated models were CLOC, ACLN, ACED, UCLN, and UCED. The models used for inference were CLOC, UCED, and UCLN.</p></p>
						</fn>
						<fn id="nt102">
							<p>
								<p>
									<sup>a</sup>The overall false-positive rate is significantly greater than 5&percnt; for these combinations of simulated and analyzed modes.
								</p>
							</p>
						</fn>
					</table-wrap-foot> --></table-wrap>
        <p>When the sequences were simulated under a molecular clock, the 95% HPD
          interval of the posterior rate estimate almost always contained the true rate under all
          three analysis models (<xref ref-type="table" rid="pbio-0040088-t001">Table 1</xref>). For
          sequences simulated under any of the other models, CLOC did extremely poorly, with the
          true rates included in the 95% HPDs between only 3% and
          11% of the time. Clock estimates of rates from data generated under exponential
          rate models (ACED and UCED) were poorer than those from data generated under lognormal
          rate models (ACLN and UCLN); this was expected, since the variance of the exponential
          distribution is larger than those of the lognormal distributions in our simulations. </p>
        <p>For the data generated under lognormal models (ACLN and UCLN), both of the uncorrelated
          models (UCED and UCLN) performed well with respect to coverage, with the 95%
          HPD containing the true rate between 93% and 100% of the time for
          individual branches. However, for the UCED model this was at the expense of power, with
          the average size of the HPDs being twice as large as those for the UCLN model.</p>
        <p>For data generated under UCED, the UCED model performed better than UCLN with both models
          giving the same average size of HPDs, but with the latter model including the true rates
          in the HPDs slightly less often (82%). Neither model performed as well when the
          data were generated under an ACED model, with the true rate in the 95% HPD
          between 36% and 90% of the time.</p>
        <p>The accurate estimation of molecular rates is important because it has a direct impact on
          the estimation of branch lengths, which can in turn affect the inferred tree topology.
          Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation against assuming a molecular
          clock when analyzing data that have not evolved under clocklike conditions, but the
          uncorrelated relaxed-clock models also perform well when the data are clocklike. The
          results favor the use of the UCLN model in that it has an accuracy comparable to the UCED
          model, but it results in considerably smaller HPDs. In particular, because the UCLN model
          has the variance of the lognormal distribution as a parameter, it can better accommodate
          data that are close to being clocklike. This is not contradicting the findings of a
          previous simulation-based study [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b022">22</xref>], which suggested that the autocorrelated exponential model
          outperformed the lognormal model in rate estimation, because the uncorrelated models
          presented here are fundamentally different from autocorrelated models. Moreover, the
          previous simulation study considered only the accuracy of the estimates, and not their
          precision. </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="s2b">
        <title>Dengue Virus Type 4 and Human Influenza A Virus</title>
        <p>We selected two virus datasets that were matched in the number of sequences (
            <italic>n</italic> = 69) and the time span over which the data had been sampled (17 y).
          The first dataset was a previously published sequence alignment of the <italic>E</italic>
          gene of dengue-4 virus (1,485 base pairs [bp]) from Puerto Rico
            [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b024">24</xref>]. The second
          dataset was an alignment of hemagglutinin sequences from human influenza A virus selected
          to have a similar time frame (1981–1998; see <xref ref-type="supplementary-material" rid="sd001">Protocol S1</xref> for details). In both
          of these datasets, each sequence in the alignment represents a consensus of the viral
          population within a single infected human host at the time of sampling. Therefore, both
          genealogies represent the ancestral relationships between the virus populations in a
          sample of 69 infected people spanning a 17-y period. These two viral datasets,
          particularly influenza A virus, are expected to exhibit the effects of natural selection,
          given the nature of their life histories [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b024">24</xref>–<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b026">26</xref>]. </p>
        <p>Both datasets were analyzed under the strict molecular clock and the UCLN and UCED
          models. For all analyses the HKY (Hasegawa-Kishino-Yano) model of nucleotide substitution
            [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b027">27</xref>] was used
          with gamma-distributed rate heterogeneity among sites [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b028">28</xref>]. Calibration information for the rate of
          evolution stems from the fact that each sequence has a date of sampling associated with it
            [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b029">29</xref>]. A
          constant-population coalescent prior was assumed [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b030">30</xref>]. For each combination of data and model, two
          independent MCMC analyses were each run for 10,000,000 steps, resulting in acceptable
          mixing as determined by Tracer 1.2 [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b023">23</xref>]. Given adequate sampling, these two runs were combined to obtain an
          estimate of the posterior distribution. The resulting estimates for the overall rate of
          evolution and coefficients of variation from the six analyses are presented in <xref ref-type="table" rid="pbio-0040088-t002">Table 2</xref>. </p>
        <table-wrap id="pbio-0040088-t002" position="float"><object-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.t002</object-id><label>Table 2</label><caption>
            <title>Rate and Variance Estimates for Two Viral Datasets (Human Influenza A Virus and
              Dengue Type-4 Virus)</title>
          </caption><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.t002" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <table><thead><TR><TD align="left" valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Virus</TD><TD valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Clock Model</TD><TD valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Parameters</TD><TD valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Coefficient of Variation (&sigma;<ITALIC><SUB>r</SUB></ITALIC>)</TD><TD valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Mean Rate</TD><TD valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>External Rate</TD><TD valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Internal Rate</TD><TD valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Log (Marginal Posterior)</TD><TD valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Log (Tree Likelihood)</TD><TD valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Log (Coalescent Prior)</TD><TD valign="top" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Population Size Scaled by Generation Length</TD></TR></thead><tbody><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Dengue-4</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Clock</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&mdash;</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00098</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&mdash;</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&mdash;</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;3939.60</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;3709.95</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;229.65</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">11.10</TD></TR><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"></TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Exponential</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.99</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00113</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00138</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00088</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;3901.47</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;3690.44</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;211.03</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">8.55</TD></TR><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"></TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Lognormal</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">2</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.39</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00099</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00103</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00094</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;3927.62</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;3701.53</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;226.10</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">10.58</TD></TR><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Influenza A</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Clock</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&mdash;</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00505</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&mdash;</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&mdash;</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;4367.76</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;4202.48</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;165.28</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">4.30</TD></TR><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"></TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Exponential</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.99</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00551</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00598</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00502</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;4310.65</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;4164.33</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;146.33</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">3.27</TD></TR><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"></TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Lognormal</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">2</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.51</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00517</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00518</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">0.00519</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;4331.27</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;4172.54</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">&minus;158.74</TD><TD valign="bottom" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">3.92</TD></TR></tbody></table> --></table-wrap>
        <p>The estimated coefficient of variation, σ <italic>
            <sub>r</sub>
          </italic>, was 0.39 for the dengue virus dataset under the UCLN model. This compares with
          0.51 for the influenza A dataset, suggesting that the dengue virus sequences are evolving
          in a more clocklike manner than the influenza virus sequences. Under the UCED model, both
          datasets produce an estimated σ <italic>
            <sub>r</sub>
          </italic> of 0.99. Under the exponential distribution σ <italic>
            <sub>r</sub>
          </italic> should be equal to 1.0 by definition, and the small discrepancy arises because
          of the discretization procedure described in <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s4">Materials and
            Methods</xref>. In both datasets the estimated average rate was higher under the UCED
          model, especially in the internal branches. This elevated rate also corresponded with a
          lower estimate of the effective population size. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="pbio-0040088-g002">Figure 2</xref> shows a tree topology sampled from the posterior
          of the UCLN analysis of the influenza A virus dataset. </p>
        <fig id="pbio-0040088-g002" position="float">
          <object-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.g002</object-id>
          <label>Figure 2</label>
          <caption>
            <title>A Tree of 69 Influenza A Virus Sequences Drawn Randomly from the Posterior
              Distribution</title>
            <p>The divergence times correspond to the mean posterior estimate of their age in years.
              The yellow bars represent the 95% HPD interval for the divergence time
              estimates. Both the mean and 95% HPD of the divergence times were
              calculated conditional on the existence of the clade defined by the divergence. Each
              node in the tree that has a posterior probability greater than 0.5 is labeled with its
              posterior probability. The sampling times of the tips were assumed to be known
              exactly. Branches colored in red had a posterior rate greater than the average rate,
              whereas branches colored in blue had a lower-than-average rate.</p>
          </caption>
          <graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.g002" xlink:type="simple"/>
        </fig>
      </sec>
      <sec id="s2c">
        <title>Marsupials</title>
        <p>In addition to the viral sequences, we analyzed a marsupial dataset. The alignment
          contained concatenated nuclear protein–coding genes ( <italic>APOB, RAG1, IRBP,
            vWF,</italic> and <italic>BRCA1;</italic> 3,772 bp) for 17 marsupials and seven
          (outgroup) placental mammals, obtained from Amrine-Madsen et al. [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b031">31</xref>]. </p>
        <p>The extensions to BEAST for inferring divergence times, described here, are well suited
          to the marsupial dataset. It possesses some phylogenetic uncertainty, so it is more
          reasonable to integrate over the posterior distribution of topologies than to assume a
          single true topology. Furthermore, the dataset includes taxa that have evolved to
          substantially different sizes, life histories, and niches, which are all hypothesized
          predictors of molecular rate variation [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b032">32</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b033">33</xref>]. </p>
        <p>The early fossil record of marsupials [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b034">34</xref>] is poorly known. As a result, point
          calibrations that utilize the oldest fossils that mark divergences of one group from
          another are likely to be substantial underestimates, whereas simply defining wide
          calibration bounds can poorly represent our understanding of the fossil record. We
          selected prior probability distributions as calibration priors (<xref ref-type="table" rid="pbio-0040088-t003">Table 3</xref>) with the intention of providing realistic
          assessments of the uncertainty associated with the fossil record [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b035">35</xref>]. </p>
        <table-wrap id="pbio-0040088-t003" position="float"><object-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.t003</object-id><label>Table 3</label><caption>
            <title>Prior Probability Distributions and Posterior Probability Densities of the
              Marsupial Calibrations</title>
          </caption><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.t003" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <table><thead><TR><TD align="left" ROWSPAN="2" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Calibration Node<sup>a</sup></TD><TD COLSPAN="2" ROWSPAN="1"><HR>Prior</TD><TD COLSPAN="2" ROWSPAN="1"><HR>MCMC Results</TD></TR><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Distribution</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Mean &lsqb;95&percnt; CI&rsqb;<sup>b</sup></TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Mean, No Data &lsqb;95&percnt; HPD&rsqb;<sup>c</sup></TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Mean, Posterior &lsqb;95&percnt; HPD&rsqb;<sup>d</sup></TD></TR></thead><tbody><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Elephants versus sirenians</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Normal</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">61.5 &lsqb;52,71&rsqb;</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">61.3 &lsqb;52.2,70.9&rsqb;</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">56.1 &lsqb;46.2,65.2&rsqb;</TD></TR><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Dasyurids versus diprotodontians</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Normal</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">64 &lsqb;54,74&rsqb;</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">64.2 &lsqb;55.1,74.1&rsqb;</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">65.2 &lsqb;56.7,73.7&rsqb;</TD></TR><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><ITALIC>Phascogale</ITALIC> versus <ITALIC>Dasyurus</ITALIC></TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Normal</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">17 &lsqb;10,24&rsqb;</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">17.1 &lsqb;10.5,24.3&rsqb;</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">14.4 &lsqb;9.7,18.9&rsqb;</TD></TR><TR><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Marsupials versus placentals</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Translated Lognormal</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">145 &lsqb;132,180&rsqb;</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">148.4 &lsqb;131.5,170.4&rsqb;</TD><TD ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">170.0 &lsqb;140.0,204.6&rsqb;</TD></TR></tbody></table> --><!-- <table-wrap-foot> 
						<fn id="nt301">
							<p>
								<p>
									<sup>a</sup>Calibration nodes are defined as the most recent common ancestor of the pair of taxa at any given step in the MCMC chain.
								</p>
							</p>
						</fn>
						<fn id="nt302">
							<p>
								<p>
									<sup>b</sup>The mean and 95&percnt; confidence intervals (CIs) of the prior probability distribution in millions of years.
								</p>
							</p>
						</fn>
						<fn id="nt303">
							<p>
								<p>
									<sup>c</sup>The mean and 95&percnt; HPD intervals of the posterior probability distribution in millions of years given by the MCMC procedure run without any sequence data. This will reveal the joint prior distribution on these parameters.
								</p>
							</p>
						</fn>
						<fn id="nt304">
							<p>
								<p>
									<sup>d</sup>The mean and 95&percnt; HPD intervals of the posterior probability distribution in millions of years.
								</p>
							</p>
						</fn>
					</table-wrap-foot> --></table-wrap>
        <p>First, to ascertain the joint prior distribution on the nodes of interest, the four
          calibration points, the Yule prior, and the reciprocal monophyly constraints were analyzed
          without any sequence data. The combined results of two runs of 10,000,000 steps are given
          in <xref ref-type="table" rid="pbio-0040088-t003">Table 3</xref>. </p>
        <p>In order to analyze the marsupial data, we assumed a general time-reversible
            [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b036">36</xref>] model of
          nucleotide substitution with gamma-distributed rate heterogeneity among sites
            [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b028">28</xref>] and a
          proportion of invariant sites. In addition, we assumed a UCLN model of rate variation
          among branches in the tree. A Yule prior on branching rates was employed and the
          reciprocal monophyly of the ingroup and outgroup was assumed a priori. Four independent
          MCMC analyses were each run for 10,000,000 steps, resulting in acceptable mixing as
          determined by Tracer 1.2 [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b023">23</xref>]. These four runs were combined to obtain an estimate of the posterior
          distribution (<xref ref-type="table" rid="pbio-0040088-t003">Table 3</xref>). The
          95% credible set of the marsupial analysis included 12 unique tree topologies,
          and the maximum a posteriori (MAP) tree topology accounted for 0.32 of the total posterior
          probability. The estimated rate of the fastest branch in the MAP topology was 2.7 times
          faster than that of the slowest branch. The mean rate of evolution was 0.944 substitutions
          per site per billion years (95% HPD: 0.817–1.073). The birth rate of
          the Yule prior was estimated to be 0.0133 (95% HPD: 0.0035–0.0234). </p>
        <p>There was a slight tendency toward a positive correlation in the rate of parent and child
          branches but this was not significant (zero was included in the 95% HPD). The
          coefficient of variation was estimated to be 0.32 (95% HPD:
          0.23–0.43), suggesting that the marsupial dataset is more clocklike than both of
          the virus datasets. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="pbio-0040088-g003">Figure 3</xref> shows the
          (A) prior and (B) posterior distributions of the clades present in the MAP tree topology. </p>
        <fig id="pbio-0040088-g003" position="float">
          <object-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.g003</object-id>
          <label>Figure 3</label>
          <caption>
            <title>The Analysis of 17 Marsupials and Seven Placental Mammals</title>
            <p>(A) The combined prior distribution of divergence times for the MAP tree topology.
              The green bars represent the 95% HPD interval for the divergence times. (B)
              The posterior distribution of the divergence times. The divergence times correspond to
              the mean posterior estimate of their age in millions of years. The yellow bars
              represent the 95% HPD interval for the divergence time estimates. Both the
              mean and 95% HPD of the divergence times were calculated conditional on the
              existence of the clade defined by the divergence. Each node in the tree is labeled
              with its posterior probability if it is greater than 0.5. The three nodes with
              normally distributed calibration priors are indicated by orange bars. Branches colored
              in red had a posterior rate greater than the average rate, whereas branches colored in
              blue had a lower-than-average rate.</p>
          </caption>
          <graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.g003" xlink:type="simple"/>
        </fig>
      </sec>
      <sec id="s2d">
        <title>Autocorrelation of Rates amongst Lineages</title>
        <p>We see no autocorrelation for the viruses we analyzed (the HPD interval of the covariance
          of parent and child branches was [−0.17,0.15] and
          [−0.18,0.15] for influenza and dengue-4 datasets respectively
          under the lognormally distributed model of rate variation and
          [−0.2,0.13] and [−0.19,0.13] for
          the exponentially distributed model of rate variation). For the marsupial dataset there is
          a small degree of autocorrelation suggested by the mean estimate, but it is not
          significantly different from zero (mean: 0.07, HPD: [−0.256,
          0.4]). We would expect that larger datasets, particularly of diverse organisms
          that vary considerably in life-history traits or proofreading mechanisms, might exhibit
          substantial autocorrelation.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="s2e">
        <title>Assessing Accuracy and Precision with Five Large Datasets</title>
        <p>Five large datasets were obtained from previous studies: (1) amino acid alignments of 102
          genes from eight bacterial species; (2) nucleotide alignments of 106 genes from eight
          yeast species [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b037">37</xref>];
          (3) nucleotide alignments of 61 genes from nine plants; (4) amino acid alignments of 99
          genes from nine metazoans; and (5) 500 nucleotide alignments of non-coding sequence from
          nine primates. The bacterial dataset was a subset of a larger dataset comprising 730 genes
          representing 45 species of bacteria [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b038">38</xref>]. Eight species of Proteobacteria were
          selected due to their close phylogenetic relationship, as well as representation among the
          730 genes. A total of 102 genes spanned all eight of the species that were retained for
          analysis. The plant dataset was taken from a larger dataset comprising 61 genes from 12
          taxa [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b039">39</xref>]. Nine
          species were selected in accordance with the stipulation that their phylogeny was known
          with almost complete certainty. The metazoan alignment was a subset of a larger dataset
          comprising 123 genes from 36 eukaryotes [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b040">40</xref>]. Nine metazoan taxa were selected from this
          dataset so that the tree relating the selected taxa was not in dispute. Genes that were
          unavailable for one or more of the nine selected taxa were removed, leaving 99 genes in
          the final dataset used for phylogenetic analysis. The primate dataset was a subset of a
          2,160,276 bp alignment of non-coding DNA from 19 mammals [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b041">41</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b042">42</xref>]. The non-primates were removed from the alignment, and sites with a
          gap in any sequence were removed. The remaining alignment was broken up into 500
          alignments of equal length (632 bp). These individual alignments were each intended to
          represent the data produced by an ordinary phylogenetic study in which a gene fragment has
          been sequenced from a number of organisms. The question being asked is if we only have one
          such alignment, how well are we able to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships of the
          organisms? </p>
        <p>To assess the accuracy of the phylogenetic methods being tested, estimates of the
          phylogeny need to be tested against the true phylogeny for each dataset. In order to
          obtain the best possible estimates of the phylogeny for each dataset, the alignments in
          each of the five datasets were concatenated. The five concatenated alignments were
          analyzed under the HKY model of nucleotide substitution with gamma-distributed rate
          variation among sites and a proportion of invariant sites. Each analysis was run for
          5,000,000 MCMC steps, with a discarded burn-in of 500,000 steps. Identical trees were
          obtained using BEAST with a UCLN model and with MrBayes (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="pbio-0040088-g004">Figure 4</xref>). The trees inferred from the plant, metazoan,
          and primate datasets agree well with the established trees for these groups. However, the
          bacterial and yeast phylogenies are relatively uncertain [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b037">37</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b043">43</xref>], and the trees inferred from the concatenated alignments are
          probably the best estimates currently available. Even if these trees turn out to be
          different from the true evolutionary histories of the studied organisms, we can at least
          assume that the trees used in this analysis are very near in tree space to the truth, and
          therefore we would expect our results to be little affected. The yeast tree inferred in
          this study from concatenated data agreed with that published by Rokas et al.
            [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b037">37</xref>], also
          confirmed by Phillips et al. [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b043">43</xref>] under different phylogenetic models. </p>
        <fig id="pbio-0040088-g004" position="float">
          <object-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.g004</object-id>
          <label>Figure 4</label>
          <caption>
            <title>The “True” Phylogenies for the Large Datasets</title>
            <p>The datasets are as follows: (A) bacterial, (B) yeast, (C) plant, (D) metazoan, and
              (E) primate.</p>
          </caption>
          <graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.g004" xlink:type="simple"/>
        </fig>
        <p>For each of the five groups of data, each alignment was analyzed using MrBayes (unrooted
          Felsenstein [UF] model), BEAST with a molecular clock (CLOC); and
          uncorrelated lognormal relaxed clock (UCLN). The HKY model of nucleotide substitution was
          assumed, with gamma-distributed rate variation among sites and a proportion of invariant
          sites. Most analyses were run for 500,000 MCMC steps with 50,000 burn-in steps, although
          some datasets required 1,000,000 steps with 100,000 burn-in steps. All analyses were
          checked for convergence using the program Tracer 1.2 [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b023">23</xref>]. The 95% credible set of trees
          was obtained for each alignment and compared with the “true” trees
          obtained using the method described above. The accuracy of the methods was considered to
          be the frequency with which the true tree was contained in the 95% credible
          set, whereas the average size of the credible sets was taken to represent precision. These
          terms have statistical definitions, but we take liberties here to facilitate easier
          interpretation. </p>
        <p>All three methods performed poorly in analyses of the bacterial and metazoan datasets.
          This result is not surprising, however, considering the substantial time depth of these
          trees. The uncorrelated relaxed-clock method produced the most accurate estimates of
          phylogeny overall (<xref ref-type="table" rid="pbio-0040088-t004">Table 4</xref>). It
          outperformed other methods in analyses of the bacterial, yeast, metazoan, and primate
          data, but the molecular clock method was the most accurate in the analysis of the plant
          data. A large proportion (76%) of the yeast alignments were significantly
          non-clocklike (as measured by a likelihood ratio test [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b010">10</xref>] on the true tree topology), which explains
          the considerable difference in accuracy between the uncorrelated relaxed-clock method
          (85.8% of the credible sets contain the true tree) and the molecular clock
          method (67.9% of the credible sets contain the true tree). The superior
          performance of the molecular clock in the analysis of the plant data, for which the
          molecular clock was rejected for 67% of the alignments, may be due to the
          sensitivity of the likelihood ratio test to even small departures from the clock
          assumption. </p>
        <table-wrap id="pbio-0040088-t004" position="float"><object-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.t004</object-id><label>Table 4</label><caption>
            <title>Accuracy and Precision of Phylogenetic Inference Using Three Bayesian Methods:
              CLOC, UCLN, and UF</title>
          </caption><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.t004" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <table><thead><TR><TD align="left" ROWSPAN="2" valign="top" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Dataset</TD><TD ROWSPAN="2" valign="top" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Sample Size</TD><TD ROWSPAN="2" valign="top" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Average Length</TD><TD ROWSPAN="2" valign="top" COLSPAN="1"><HR>Clock Rejected by LRT</TD><TD COLSPAN="3" valign="top" ROWSPAN="1"><HR>Accuracy (&percnt;) (True Tree in 95&percnt; Credible Set)<sup>a</sup></TD><TD COLSPAN="3" valign="top" ROWSPAN="1"><HR>Precision (Number of Trees in 95&percnt; Credible Set)<sup>b</sup></TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>CLOC</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCLN</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UF</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>CLOC</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UCLN</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><HR>UF</TD></TR></thead><tbody><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Bacteria</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">102</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">170. aa</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">26&percnt;</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">46.1</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><BOLD>48.0</BOLD></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">42.2</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">5.7</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">10.3</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">11.3</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Yeast</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">106</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">1,198. bp</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">76&percnt;</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">67.0</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><BOLD>84.9</BOLD></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">79.2</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">3.5</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">5.9</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">6.5</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Plants</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">61</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">647. bp</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">67&percnt;</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><BOLD>91.8</BOLD></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">88.5</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">83.6</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">7.5</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">15.4</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">9.2</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Animals</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">99</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">197. aa</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">59&percnt;</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">64.6</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><BOLD>69.7</BOLD></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">57.6</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">5.7</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">10.2</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">14.2</TD></TR><TR><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">Primates</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">500</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">632. bp</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">13&percnt;</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">88.8</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1"><BOLD>89.0</BOLD></TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">88.8</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">3.1</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">3.4</TD><TD valign="middle" ROWSPAN="1" COLSPAN="1">5.1</TD></TR></tbody></table> --><!-- <table-wrap-foot> 
						<fn id="nt401">
							<p>
								<p>
									<sup>a</sup>The percentage of alignments for which the 95&percnt; credible set contained the &ldquo;true&rdquo; tree. The numbers in boldface indicate the better performing model.
								</p>
							</p>
						</fn>
						<fn id="nt402">
							<p>
								<p>
									<sup>b</sup>The largest 10&percnt; of credible sets were treated as outliers and excluded from the calculation of the average. The medians were comparatively uninformative and are not given here.
								</p>
							</p>
						</fn>
						<fn id="nt403">
							<p>
								<p>aa, amino acids; LRT, likelihood ratio test.</p></p>
						</fn>
					</table-wrap-foot> --></table-wrap>
        <p>In the case of the primate data, all three methods were similarly accurate in estimating
          phylogenies. This is probably because the data were relatively clocklike, with the
          molecular clock assumption rejected for less than a third of the alignments. For all of
          the datasets that were analyzed, the phylogenetic estimates made using a strict molecular
          clock were the most precise. As expected, the average size of the 95% credible
          set of trees was always the smallest for the molecular clock method, and nearly always
          greatest for the unrooted method. Under conditions in which the data more or less conform
          to a molecular clock, such as the primate data examined in this study, the molecular clock
          method should be used due to its superior precision.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="s3">
      <title>Discussion</title>
      <p>The relaxed phylogenetics methods described here co-estimate phylogeny and divergence times
        under a relaxed molecular clock model, thus providing an integrated framework for biologists
        interested in reconstructing ancestral divergence dates and phylogenetic relationships. The
        method presented here naturally incorporates the time-dependent nature of the evolutionary
        process without assuming a strict molecular clock. One of the byproducts of estimating a
        phylogeny using a relaxed clock is an estimate of the position of the root of the tree, even
        in the absence of a non-reversible model of substitution [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b044">44</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b045">45</xref>] or a known outgroup. </p>
      <p>Recently, a number of authors have begun to investigate the impact of various forms of
        model misspecification on the accuracy of posterior probabilities of clade support
          [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b046">46</xref>–<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b048">48</xref>]. In a Bayesian framework, the
        absence of a molecular clock assumption (either strict or relaxed) represents a prior belief
        that the tree topology provides no information about relative branch lengths. We suggest
        that this represents a poor prior belief, and that Bayesian estimation of phylogeny from
        short sequences may be biased when the time-dependency of the evolutionary process is not
        modeled. We would argue that the complex time-dependency of the evolutionary process should
        not be ignored a priori as has been common practice, but should instead be carefully
        modeled. This paper represents a first attempt at incorporating a relaxed-clock model into a
        Bayesian method of phylogenetic inference. </p>
      <p>We have presented a large analysis of 102 bacterial, 106 yeast, 61 plant, 99 metazoan, and
        500 primate alignments that overall suggests the relaxed-clock models are both more accurate
        and more precise at estimating phylogenetic relationships than current unrooted methods
        implemented in MrBayes and other programs. Overall, these initial results suggest that a
        relaxed phylogenetic approach may be the most appropriate even when phylogenetic
        relationships are of primary concern and the rooting and dating of the tree are of less
        interest.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="s4">
      <title>Materials and Methods</title>
      <p>The molecular clock assumption can be relaxed in a variety of ways [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b013">13</xref>–<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b015">15</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b017">17</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b049">49</xref>–<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b052">52</xref>]. In Bayesian treatments of the
        relaxed clock, there is a vector of rates <italic>R</italic>={
          <italic>r</italic><sub>1</sub>, <italic>r</italic><sub>2</sub>,…,
          <italic>r</italic><sub>2 <italic>n</italic>−1 </sub>} and a
        corresponding vector of node heights <bold>t</bold>={
          <italic>t</italic><sub>1</sub>, <italic>t</italic><sub>2</sub>,…,
          <italic>t</italic><sub>2 <italic>n</italic>−1 </sub>} in units of time.
        The node height vector, in conjunction with an edge graph, <italic>E,</italic> define an
        ancestral tree g = { <italic>E</italic>, <bold>t</bold>} in units of time.
        To convert this tree from units of time to molecular evolutionary units, the rates are
        either assigned to branches [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b015">15</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b017">17</xref>] or to nodes
          [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b053">53</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b054">54</xref>]. In both types of models, the prior
        probability of the rates <italic>f<sub>R</sub>
        </italic>( <italic>R</italic>| <italic>g</italic>) can be calculated by the product of the
        probability of each rate <italic>r</italic><sub>2</sub> in the tree given the ancestral rate
            <italic>r<sub>A</sub>
        </italic><sub>( <italic>i</italic>) </sub> and the time Δ <italic>t<sub>i</sub>
        </italic> between the ancestral and derived rate: </p>
      <p>
        <disp-formula id="pbio-0040088-e001"><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.e001" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
					</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
					<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
					<mml:mrow>
						<mml:msub>
							<mml:mi>f</mml:mi>
							<mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
						</mml:msub>
						<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
						<mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
						<mml:mo>|</mml:mo>
						<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
						<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
						<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
						<mml:mstyle DISPLAYSTYLE="true">
							<mml:munder>
								<mml:mo>&Pi;</mml:mo>
								<mml:mi>i</mml:mi>
							</mml:munder>
							<mml:mrow>
								<mml:mi>f</mml:mi>
								<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
								<mml:msub>
									<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
									<mml:mi>i</mml:mi>
								</mml:msub>
								<mml:mo>|</mml:mo>
								<mml:msub>
									<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
									<mml:mrow>
										<mml:mi>A</mml:mi>
										<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
										<mml:mi>i</mml:mi>
										<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
									</mml:mrow>
								</mml:msub>
								<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
								<mml:mi>&Delta;</mml:mi>
								<mml:msub>
									<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
									<mml:mi>i</mml:mi>
								</mml:msub>
								<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
								<mml:mo>.</mml:mo>
							</mml:mrow>
						</mml:mstyle>
					</mml:mrow>
				</mml:math> --></disp-formula>
      </p>
      <p>The first such model to be described [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b015">15</xref>] assigned rates to the midpoints of branches
        and the assumed lognormal prior distribution relating the midpoint of the ancestral branch
        to the midpoint of the derived branch. Another interesting model is the exponential
        distribution model of Aris-Brosou and Yang [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b017">17</xref>], which employed an exponential prior
        distribution on rate <italic>r</italic> with a mean (and therefore standard deviation) equal
        to the ancestral rate <italic>r<sub>A</sub>, </italic> and with no dependence on the time
        between the two rates. This second model represents a more punctuated view of change in
        evolutionary rate, so that only the number of branching events, and not the length of time
        between events, determines the amount of change in evolutionary rate. In all autocorrelated
        relaxed-clock models, an additional assumption must be made about the rate at the root. For
        models that assign rates to nodes, it is necessary to treat the root node in a special way,
        as it does not have a parent node [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b015">15</xref>]. For models that assign rates to branches, a branch above the root is
        implied and must be assigned a rate. </p>
      <p>In the autocorrelated relaxed-clock models that have been described, including the commonly
        used lognormal model [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b015">15</xref>,
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b017">17</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b055">55</xref>], it is also necessary to specify the degree of
        autocorrelation as a prior. Other prior models of rate change, such as the gamma
        distribution model and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b055">55</xref>], require more than one hyperparameter to be
        specified, so that selecting suitable values for a particular dataset may be an even more
        difficult exercise. The effects of varying these hyperparameters are poorly understood
          [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b022">22</xref>], but there is
        likely to be a considerable impact on posterior estimates of rates. </p>
      <sec id="s4a">
        <title>Uncorrelated relaxed clocks</title>
        <p>We present an alternative to the autocorrelated prior in which there is, a priori, no
          correlation of the rates on adjacent branches of the tree. Instead we propose a model in
          which the rate on each branch of the tree is drawn independently and identically from an
          underlying rate distribution. We investigate two candidates for the rate distribution
          among branches:</p>
        <p>
          <disp-formula id="pbio-0040088-e002"><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.e002" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
					</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
					<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
					<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
					<mml:mo>&sim;</mml:mo>
					<mml:mtext>Exp</mml:mtext>
					<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
					<mml:mi>&lambda;</mml:mi>
					<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
				</mml:math> --></disp-formula>
        </p>
        <p>
          <disp-formula id="pbio-0040088-e003"><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.e003" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
				</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
				<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
				<mml:mrow>
					<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
					<mml:mo>&sim;</mml:mo>
					<mml:mi>L</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>o</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>N</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>o</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>m</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>l</mml:mi>
					<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
					<mml:mi>&mu;</mml:mi>
					<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
					<mml:msup>
						<mml:mi>&sigma;</mml:mi>
						<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
					</mml:msup>
					<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
				</mml:mrow>
				<mml:mrow>
					<mml:mo>.</mml:mo>
				</mml:mrow>
			</mml:math> --></disp-formula>
        </p>
        <p>These uncorrelated priors can be framed in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, as with the
          autocorrelated priors. In this scenario the exponential version of uncorrelated relaxed
          clock would have a prior probability on the rate vector of:</p>
        <p>
          <disp-formula id="pbio-0040088-e004"><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.e004" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
			</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
			<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
			<mml:mrow>
				<mml:msub>
					<mml:mi>f</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
				</mml:msub>
				<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
				<mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
				<mml:mo>|</mml:mo>
				<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
				<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
				<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
				<mml:mi>f</mml:mi>
				<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
				<mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
				<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
				<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
				<mml:mstyle DISPLAYSTYLE="true">
					<mml:munder>
						<mml:mo>&Pi;</mml:mo>
						<mml:mi>i</mml:mi>
					</mml:munder>
					<mml:mrow>
						<mml:mi>&lambda;</mml:mi>
						<mml:msup>
							<mml:mi>e</mml:mi>
							<mml:mrow>
								<mml:mo>&minus;</mml:mo>
								<mml:mi>&lambda;</mml:mi>
								<mml:msub>
									<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
									<mml:mi>i</mml:mi>
								</mml:msub>
							</mml:mrow>
						</mml:msup>
					</mml:mrow>
				</mml:mstyle>
			</mml:mrow>
			<mml:mrow>
				<mml:mo>.</mml:mo>
			</mml:mrow>
		</mml:math> --></disp-formula>
        </p>
        <p>This model corresponds to an exponential prior distribution on rate <italic>r<sub>i</sub>
          </italic> with a mean (and therefore standard deviation) equal to
            λ<sup>−1</sup> and no dependence on either the rate of the previous
          branch or the time between the two rates. The parameter λ is a hyperparameter
          that is fixed and not estimated via MCMC, and represents a prior statement about both the
          mean and the variance of branch rates. This prior reflects a punctuated view of change in
          evolutionary rate, so that the prior expectation of the rate at all branches is the same,
          with no autocorrelation between adjacent branches. Notice that the posterior distribution
          of rates among branches need not be the same as the prior in this setup and that
          autocorrelation may exist in the posterior, even though it is not specified in the prior. </p>
        <p>Instead of framing Equations <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="pbio-0040088-e002">2</xref> and <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="pbio-0040088-e003">3</xref> as prior
          distributions in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, they can instead be reformulated as a
          full likelihood model. In this case, the branch rates are not independent random variables
          with a prior distribution, but are instead constrained so as to fit one of the
          distributions in Equations <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="pbio-0040088-e002">2</xref>
          and <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="pbio-0040088-e003">3</xref> exactly. The parameters
          of the rate distribution are no longer hyperparameters of a prior distribution, but are
          instead parameters of the likelihood model. This is closely analogous to the common way in
          which rate heterogeneity among sites is treated [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b028">28</xref>]. </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="s4b">
        <title>Priors on phylogeny</title>
        <p>A particular requirement of Bayesian phylogenetic inference is the responsibility given
          to users to specify a prior probability distribution on the shape of the phylogeny (node
          ages and branching order). This can be either a benefit or a burden, largely depending on
          whether an obvious prior distribution presents itself for the data at hand. For example,
          the coalescent prior [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b056">56</xref>,
            <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b057">57</xref>] is a commonly used
          prior for population-level data and has been extended to include various forms of
          demographic functions [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b058">58</xref>,
            <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b059">59</xref>], sub-divided
          populations [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b060">60</xref>],
          and other complexities. Traditional speciation models such as the Yule process
            [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b061">61</xref>] and various
          birth–death models [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b062">62</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b063">63</xref>] can also
          provide useful priors for species-level data. Such models generally have a number of
          hyperparameters (for example, effective population size, growth rate, or speciation and
          extinction rates), which, under a Bayesian framework, can be sampled to provide a
          posterior distribution of these potentially interesting biological quantities. </p>
        <p>In some cases, the choice of prior on the phylogenetic tree can exert a strong influence
          on inferences made from a given dataset [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b064">64</xref>]. The sensitivity of inference results to the
          prior chosen will be largely dependent on the data analyzed and few general
          recommendations can be made. It is, however, good practice to perform the MCMC analysis
          without any data in order to sample wholly from the prior distribution. This distribution
          can be compared to the posterior distribution for parameters of interest in order to
          examine the relative influence of the data and the prior (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="pbio-0040088-g003">Figure 3</xref>). </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="s4c">
        <title>Bayesian inference</title>
        <p>The full Bayesian sequence analysis with an uncorrelated relaxed-clock model allows the
          co-estimation of substitution parameters, relaxed-clock parameters, and the ancestral
          phylogeny. The posterior distribution is of the following form:</p>
        <p>
          <disp-formula id="pbio-0040088-e005"><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.e005" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
		</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
		<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
		<mml:mrow>
			<mml:mi>f</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>&Thetas;</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>&Phi;</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>&Omega;</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo>|</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
			<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
			<mml:mfrac>
				<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
				<mml:mi>Z</mml:mi>
			</mml:mfrac>
			<mml:mi>Pr</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo></mml:mo>
			<mml:mo></mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo>|</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>&Phi;</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>&Omega;</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
			<mml:msub>
				<mml:mi>f</mml:mi>
				<mml:mi>G</mml:mi>
			</mml:msub>
			<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo>|</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>&Thetas;</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
			<mml:msub>
				<mml:mi>f</mml:mi>
				<mml:mrow>
					<mml:mi>&Thetas;</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>&Omega;</mml:mi>
					<mml:mi>&Phi;</mml:mi>
				</mml:mrow>
			</mml:msub>
			<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>&Thetas;</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>&Omega;</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
			<mml:mi>&Phi;</mml:mi>
			<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
		</mml:mrow>
		<mml:mrow>
			<mml:mo>.</mml:mo>
		</mml:mrow>
	</mml:math> --></disp-formula>
        </p>
        <p>The vector Φ contains the parameters of the relaxed-clock model (e.g., μ
          and σ<sup>2</sup> in the case of lognormally distributed rates among branches).
          The term Pr <italic>D</italic>|g,Φ,Ω is the standard Felsenstein
          likelihood, where <italic>g</italic> is a tree with branch length measured in units of
          time. For the purposes of calculating this likelihood, branch lengths are converted to
          units of substitutions by multiplying the rates defined by Φ with the internode
          distance between node <italic>i</italic> and parent node <italic>j</italic> in tree
            <italic>g</italic>. The tree prior, <italic>f<sub>G</sub>
          </italic>( <italic>g</italic>|Θ), can either be a coalescent-based prior
            [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b030">30</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b065">65</xref>] for within-population data or some other
          appropriate prior if the sequences come from multiple populations/species [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b055">55</xref>]. The vector Θ
          contains the hyperparameters of the tree prior. The vector Ω contains the
          parameters of the substitution model (such as transition/transversion ratio, κ;
          shape parameter for gamma-distributed rates among sites, α; and proportion of
          invariant sites, <italic>p<sub>inv</sub>
          </italic>). </p>
        <p>We summarize the posterior density in <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="pbio-0040088-e005">Equation 5</xref> using samples (
          <italic>g</italic>,Θ,Φ,Ω) ∼ <italic>f</italic>
          obtained via MCMC. If, for example, the divergence times are of primary interest then the
          other sampled parameters can be thought of as nuisance parameters, and vice versa. </p>
        <p>The formulation in <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="pbio-0040088-e005">Equation
            5</xref> implies that the branch-rates could be integrated analytically in the
          Felsenstein likelihood. Although this could be accomplished relatively easily by
          discretizing the rate distribution and averaging the likelihood over the rate categories
          on each branch, we elected to do the integration using MCMC. This was achieved by
          assigning a unique rate category <italic>c</italic> ∈ 1,2,…,2
            <italic>n</italic>−2 to each branch <italic>j</italic> of the tree. During the
          calculation of the likelihood the rate category <italic>c</italic> is converted to a rate
          by the following method: </p>
        <p>
          <disp-formula id="pbio-0040088-e006"><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.e006" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
	</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
	<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
	<mml:mrow>
		<mml:msub>
			<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
			<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
		</mml:msub>
		<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
		<mml:msup>
			<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
			<mml:mrow>
				<mml:mo>&minus;</mml:mo>
				<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
			</mml:mrow>
		</mml:msup>
		<mml:mo STRETCHY="true">(</mml:mo>
		<mml:mfrac>
			<mml:mrow>
				<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
				<mml:mo>&minus;</mml:mo>
				<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
				<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
				<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
			</mml:mrow>
			<mml:mrow>
				<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
				<mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
				<mml:mo>&minus;</mml:mo>
				<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
			</mml:mrow>
		</mml:mfrac>
		<mml:mo STRETCHY="true">)</mml:mo>
	</mml:mrow>
	<mml:mrow>
		<mml:mo>.</mml:mo>
	</mml:mrow>
</mml:math> --></disp-formula>
        </p>
        <p>The function <italic>D</italic><sup>−1</sup>( <italic>x</italic>) is the
          inverse function of the probability distribution function, <italic>D</italic>(
            <italic>x</italic>)= <italic>P</italic>( <italic>X</italic>≤ <italic>x</italic>),
          of the relaxed-clock model specified by Equations <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="pbio-0040088-e002">2</xref> and <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="pbio-0040088-e003">3</xref>. This discretization of the underlying rate
          distribution is illustrated in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="pbio-0040088-g005">Figure
            5</xref> for a lognormal distribution with 12 rate categories (sufficient for a tree of
          seven tips). To integrate the branch rates out, the assignment of rate categories
            <italic>c</italic> to branches was sampled via MCMC. </p>
        <fig id="pbio-0040088-g005" position="float">
          <object-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.g005</object-id>
          <label>Figure 5</label>
          <caption>
            <title>A Lognormal Distribution Discretized into 12 Rate Categories</title>
            <p>Each of the 12 categories has equal probability ( <italic>p</italic> = 1/12). The
                <italic>i</italic><sup>th</sup> rate category (numbered from left to right)
              corresponds to the (I − 0.5)/12 quantile of the lognormal distribution. </p>
          </caption>
          <graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.g005" xlink:type="simple"/>
        </fig>
      </sec>
      <sec id="s4d">
        <title>Model selection</title>
        <p>One issue that remains largely unresolved in this piece of work is the issue of model
          comparison and model selection. Within a Bayesian framework, Bayes factors are usually
          regarded as the correct way to deal with model selection. Typically this involves a
          technique known as reversible-jump MCMC. We have not implemented this, but we do plan on
          developing a reversible-jump MCMC version of this framework in the future. Typically model
          selection is easy when one model produces a much better fit. Because all of the models for
          rate variation examined here differ by one free parameter at most, a simple comparison of
          the average log posterior probabilities will usually be revealing. It is only when the log
          posteriors are very similar and the results are qualitatively different between the two
          models that model selection becomes an issue. This combination of conditions did not occur
          in any of our real datasets.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="s4e">
        <title>Proposing new states in the MCMC kernel</title>
        <p>The MCMC must sample the tree topology, the divergence times, and the individual
          parameters of the substitution model and tree prior(s). Therefore, a series of proposal
          distributions (often called “moves”) needs to be employed. Our MCMC
          implementation employs an array of moves, each of which is designed to explore a certain
          subspace in the overall parameter/model space being explored. For example, some moves
          propose local changes to the tree topology while keeping the coalescent interval and all
          the other parameters constant. Some moves propose a change to a single substitution
          parameter (such as the shape parameter of the gamma distribution) while keeping everything
          else constant. The general scheme is to (1) choose a random move with a probability
          proportional to a specified weight, then (2) apply the move to the current state, and (3)
          assess the relative score of the new state. The new state is adopted if it has a higher
          posterior probability; otherwise it is adopted with probability equal to the ratio of its
          posterior probability to the posterior probability of the previous state. The weights
          allow the researcher to favor certain moves which can help with the performance of the
          MCMC, but generally the default weights give good results. Most of the moves used in our
          MCMC implementation have been previously described [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b030">30</xref>]. The two new moves involve sampling the rate
          categories of the branches (a random pair of branches are chosen and their categories are
          swapped) and dealing with rate categories of branches when a change to the tree topology
          is made. (We implement two alternatives: keeping all the rate categories the same when a
          subtree is moved or performing a single rate swap simultaneously with a tree topology
          change.) These moves are very simplistic, and we suspect that better proposal
          distributions exist. We have found a small number of datasets in which our current
          proposal distribution does not work well. Nevertheless, for a large number of datasets
          including the ones presented in this paper, our scheme performs more than adequately as
          assessed by repeated runs and estimation of integrated autocorrelation times. </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="s4f">
        <title>Summarizing the posterior distribution</title>
        <p>The output of an MCMC analysis is a set of samples from the posterior distribution. In
          the case of the uncorrelated relaxed-clock models described above, the posterior
          distribution is a distribution over tree topologies, dates of divergence, branch rates,
          and parameters of the rate and substitution models. This complex set of samples can be
          summarized in many ways. One of the simplest summaries of the branch rate distribution is
          to sample the coefficient of variation (σ <italic>
            <sub>r</sub>
          </italic>; the standard deviation divided by the mean) of the branch rates. Under the
          exponential model, σ <italic><sub>r</sub> = 1 </italic> by definition; under the
          lognormal model, σ <italic>
            <sub>r</sub>
          </italic> gives a measure of the degree of clocklikeness of the data. If σ <italic>
            <sub>r</sub>
          </italic> = 0 then the data are perfectly clocklike, whereas larger values correspond to
          increasing rate heterogeneity among branches. A posterior estimate of σ <italic>
            <sub>r</sub>
          </italic> can be easily calculated: </p>
        <p>
          <disp-formula id="pbio-0040088-e007"><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.e007" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
<mml:mrow>
	<mml:mi>E</mml:mi>
	<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">&lsqb;</mml:mo>
	<mml:msub>
		<mml:mi>&sigma;</mml:mi>
		<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
	</mml:msub>
	<mml:mo>|</mml:mo>
	<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
	<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">&rsqb;</mml:mo>
	<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
	<mml:mfrac>
		<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
		<mml:mi>L</mml:mi>
	</mml:mfrac>
	<mml:mstyle DISPLAYSTYLE="true">
		<mml:munderover>
			<mml:mo>&sum;</mml:mo>
			<mml:mrow>
				<mml:mi>i</mml:mi>
				<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
				<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
			</mml:mrow>
			<mml:mi>L</mml:mi>
		</mml:munderover>
		<mml:mrow>
			<mml:msubsup>
				<mml:mi>&sigma;</mml:mi>
				<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
				<mml:mrow>
					<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
					<mml:mi>i</mml:mi>
					<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
				</mml:mrow>
			</mml:msubsup>
		</mml:mrow>
	</mml:mstyle>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
	<mml:mo>.</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math> --></disp-formula>
        </p>
        <p>This is the simple average of the calculated <inline-formula id="pbio-0040088-ex001"><inline-graphic mimetype="image" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.ex001" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>
          
          over all <italic>L</italic> samples in the estimated posterior distribution. In addition,
          95% HPD limits can also be calculated. In a similar manner, marginal posterior
          estimates can be calculated for </p>
        <p>
          <disp-formula id="pbio-0040088-ex002"><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.ex002" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
<mml:mi>E</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&lsqb;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>|</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&rsqb;</mml:mo>
<mml:mtext>&thinsp;the length of time the&thinsp;</mml:mtext>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
<mml:mtext>th</mml:mtext>
</mml:msup>
<mml:mtext>&thinsp;branch represents,</mml:mtext>
</mml:math> --><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
<mml:mi>E</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&lsqb;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>|</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&rsqb;</mml:mo>
<mml:mtext>&thinsp;the rate of evolution on the&thinsp;</mml:mtext>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
<mml:mtext>th</mml:mtext>
</mml:msup>
<mml:mtext>&thinsp;branch, and,</mml:mtext>
</mml:math> --><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
<mml:mi>E</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&lsqb;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>|</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&rsqb;</mml:mo>
<mml:mtext>&thinsp;the expected number of substitutions per site occurring</mml:mtext>
</mml:math> --><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
<mml:mtext>on the&thinsp;</mml:mtext>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
<mml:mtext>th</mml:mtext>
</mml:msup>
<mml:mtext>&thinsp;branch.</mml:mtext>
</mml:math> --></disp-formula>
        </p>
        <p>Some subtlety in the interpretation of the posterior distribution of rates is required
          because both the amount of time a branch represents, <italic>t<sub>j</sub>, </italic> and
          the rate of evolution along the branch, <italic>r<sub>j</sub>
          </italic>, are random variables in the MCMC analysis. For example, in general,
            <italic>E</italic>[ <italic>r<sub>j</sub>t<sub>j</sub>
          </italic>| <italic>D</italic>] ≠ <italic>E</italic>[
              <italic>r<sub>j</sub>
          </italic>| <italic>D</italic>]· <italic>E</italic>[
              <italic>t<sub>j</sub>
          </italic>| <italic>D</italic>]. For the purposes of this paper, when we refer to
          the average rate for a set of branches <italic>B</italic> (such as the set of external
          branches or the set of internal branches), we define it as the weighted average: </p>
        <p>
          <disp-formula id="pbio-0040088-e008"><graphic mimetype="image" position="float" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.e008" xlink:type="simple"/><!-- <mml:math xmlns:mml="<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"">http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"
</ext-link> xmlns:xlink="
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"">http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"</ext-link> DISPLAY="block" OVERFLOW="scroll">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">(</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>B</mml:mi>
<mml:mo STRETCHY="false">)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
<mml:mstyle DISPLAYSTYLE="true">
<mml:munder>
<mml:mo>&sum;</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&isin;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>B</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:munder>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mstyle>
<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
<mml:mstyle DISPLAYSTYLE="true">
<mml:munder>
<mml:mo>&sum;</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&isin;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>B</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:munder>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>j</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mstyle>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math> --></disp-formula>
        </p>
        <p>rather than the simple unweighted average <inline-formula id="pbio-0040088-ex003"><inline-graphic mimetype="image" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.ex003" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>
          .
          Thus the posterior estimate of average rate over the whole tree is
          <italic>E</italic>[ <italic>r</italic><sup>( <italic>T</italic>) </sup>|
            <italic>D</italic>], where <italic>T</italic> = {1,2,…,2
            <italic>n</italic>−2}. In general, this will be different from the
          mean of the underlying rate distribution because the rate at each branch is weighted by
          the time represented by the branch. The justification for this is that the overall rate is
          best summarized by the total amount of substitutions over the total amount of time, which
          is what <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="pbio-0040088-e008">Equation 8</xref>
          calculates. </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="s4g">
        <title>Calibrating the rate of evolution</title>
        <p>In the above discussion on rate models, it was assumed that it is possible to estimate
          absolute rates of evolution and the variance in absolute rates. In fact, even under a
          molecular clock assumption, the divergence times and the overall substitution rate can
          only be separately estimated if there is a source of external calibration information. In
          the framework described here, this information can come from one of three sources: (1)
          Prior information on the age of internal nodes: In a phylogenetic context, calibration
          information is often obtained by assigning the age of a known fossil to a particular
          internal node [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b002">2</xref>].
          Uncertainty in the association between an internal node and the fossil record can be
          accommodated by providing a prior probability distribution for the age of the node.
          Previous studies have used a uniform distribution with upper and lower bounds on the age
            [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b054">54</xref>], although
          other distributions may be suitable [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b035">35</xref>]. In the above Results section, we presented
          examples in which calibration times are treated with parametric prior distributions
          (normal and lognormal). Assigning an age to a particular node is only possible when the
          tree itself is assumed to be known and fixed, a limitation of previous relaxed-clock
          implementations [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b015">15</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b017">17</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b054">54</xref>]. In the framework presented here, the tree
          itself is being sampled and thus we cannot define the age of a particular internal node.
          Instead we specify the age, or the prior distribution of age, for the most recent common
          ancestor of a set of taxa. Every time a new tree is proposed in the MCMC chain, the most
          recent common ancestor of the specified taxa is located in the tree, and the prior
          probability of the age of this node is used to assess the acceptance probability of the
          proposed tree. (2) Known ages of the sequences: Recently it has also been demonstrated
          that calibrations can be associated with the sequences at the tips of the tree if they are
          sampled at significantly different times [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b029">29</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b030">30</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b066">66</xref>] with
          respect to their rate of evolution. Again, there may be uncertainty in calibration dates
            [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b067">67</xref>]. The RNA
          virus data in this study provide examples of this form of calibration information. (3) A
          strong prior on the substitution rate: If the mean substitution rate is known from a
          previous study on independent data, then this can be incorporated as prior knowledge. In
          the simplest case this can be achieved by fixing the rate of evolution to a known value.
          It is also straightforward to sample the rate from a parametric distribution obtained from
          a previous (independent) analysis [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b068">68</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="pbio-0040088-b069">69</xref>]. If there
          is no prior information about the mean substitution rate, then it can be fixed to 1,
          resulting in time being in units of substitutions per site. </p>
        <p>All of these forms of calibration information can be incorporated into our MCMC
          implementation either on their own or in any combination, as appropriate.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="s5">
      <title>Supporting Information</title>
      <supplementary-material id="sd001" mimetype="application/msword" position="anchor" xlink:href="info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.0040088.sd001" xlink:type="simple">
        <label>Protocol S1</label>
        <caption>
          <title>Relaxed Phylogenetics and Dating with Confidence</title>
          <p>(167 KB DOC).</p>
        </caption>
      </supplementary-material>
    </sec>
  </body>
  <back>
    <ack>
      <p>The authors would like to thank S.-M. Chaw and H. Philippe for providing data, and Lindell
        Bromham for coining the phrase “dating with confidence.” All of the
        methods described above have been implemented in the BEAST software package ( <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://evolve.zoo.ox.ac.uk/beast" xlink:type="simple">http://evolve.zoo.ox.ac.uk/beast</ext-link>). </p>
    </ack>
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    <glossary>
      <title>Abbreviations</title>
      <def-list>
        <def-item>
          <term>ACED</term>
          <def>
            <p>autocorrelated exponential distribution</p>
          </def>
        </def-item>
        <def-item>
          <term>ACLN</term>
          <def>
            <p>autocorrelated lognormal distribution</p>
          </def>
        </def-item>
        <def-item>
          <term>bp</term>
          <def>
            <p>base pairs</p>
          </def>
        </def-item>
        <def-item>
          <term>CLOC</term>
          <def>
            <p>strict molecular clock</p>
          </def>
        </def-item>
        <def-item>
          <term>HPD</term>
          <def>
            <p>highest posterior density</p>
          </def>
        </def-item>
        <def-item>
          <term>MAP</term>
          <def>
            <p>maximum a posteriori</p>
          </def>
        </def-item>
        <def-item>
          <term>MCMC</term>
          <def>
            <p>Markov chain Monte Carlo</p>
          </def>
        </def-item>
        <def-item>
          <term>UCED</term>
          <def>
            <p>uncorrelated exponential distribution</p>
          </def>
        </def-item>
        <def-item>
          <term>UCLN</term>
          <def>
            <p>uncorrelated lognormal distribution</p>
          </def>
        </def-item>
        <def-item>
          <term>UF</term>
          <def>
            <p>unrooted Felsenstein</p>
          </def>
        </def-item>
      </def-list>
    </glossary>
    
  </back>
</article>