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Implications of another Trump presidency on climate justice

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The Philippines’ struggle with climate change is endlessly intertwined with issues of climate imperialism and economic dependency.

The United States has elected Donald Trump, a convicted felon and climate denialist, to the presidency once again. The election’s outcome will shape the future of climate action and the state of human rights justice across the globe.

With Trump representing imperialist interests that have historically fueled carbon emissions and militarization in the world, the Global South is set to face the brunt of climate injustice. But why should the Filipino youth care about the US elections, when it’s an entirely different country? The answer lies in the fact that increasing militarization threatens the environment and sovereignty of countries like the Philippines.

Trump’s win is a loss to many, and in particular to the climate movement across the globe. For example, at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), the Paris Agreement was ratified between 196 nations with the goal to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. But it was the same president, Trump, who withdrew the largest carbon emitter, the United States, from the agreement.

His previous administration was the worst for environmental protection as he appointed fossil fuel and oil lobbyists to the Environmental Protection Agency, and terminated climate policies in federal agencies. He also expanded the mining and drilling activities across America to give way to businesses’ interests. Even worse, he silenced scientists and dismissed members of the Scientific Review Board who opposed his corporate-minded, coal-powered agenda that further exarcebates the climate crisis.

Yet despite being an openly fascist leader with an anti-human rights agenda, he has once again won the White House and is expected to sit in the highest position of the leading country in the world.

The Philippines faces the brunt of the climate crisis. Youth Advocates for Climate Action Philippines (YACAP) explain in their 2024 Climate Justice Report how climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of typhoons in the country, disproportionately impacting marginalized communities while claiming thousands of lives. This includes the deadly supertyphoon Yolanda (International name: Haiyan) which hit the urban poor regions of Visayas with record-breaking wind speed and devastating storm surge.

Between 2000 and 2023 the Philippines experienced an average of 7.8 typhoons a year where at least 21,00 people were killed and approximately 150 million people were affected. Despite the Philippine government’s 1.14 trillion pesos ($20.3 billion) budget allocation to supposed flood control projects since 2015, typhoons continue to wreak havoc, devastating the country’s economy, infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihood, revealing the incompetence of these efforts.

The effects of sea-level rise, extreme heat, and drought compound the suffering of the Filipino people, especially people living on the margin. And while the government calls for “Filipino resilience”, the people demand stronger, more accountable action—not just empty rhetoric.

In light of the pressing challenges posed by the climate crisis, the masses continue to demand decisive measures from global leaders to address and alleviate its far-reaching effects. Upon examining the facts upclose, it becomes clear that the United States is responsible for a significant portion of carbon emissions worldwide. Particularly, the

US military stands out as a significant contributor to global emissions, with a carbon footprint surpassing the entirety of industrialised nations such as Portugal and Denmark. This massive, almost unfathomable impact stems from an institution meant to protect American interests — often at the expense of ecosystems and communities in the Philippines and even other countries in the global south hosting US military bases.

It is also worth mentioning how the US Fossil fuel industry continues to drive climate change, with lax regulations, increased extraction, and ongoing expansion of oil and gas operations that set back climate efforts. And unfortunately for the rest of us, the US industry has ripple effects across the entire globe. For vulnerable nations like the Philippines, this climate negligence worsens exposure to extreme weather, sea-level rise, and worsened environmental disasters.

This is not even to mention yet that the Philippines, while facing issues of pollution, waste management, and disaster management, produces less than half a percentage of the entire world’s Carbon emissions.

Beyond global emissions, the United States has decades of military influence on the Philippines. The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) have established extensive US military bases in the country, making the Philippines a crucial “outpost” in the US military’s global network.In total, there are 15 areas that are used as military sites, making the entire Philippines a host to US military bases.

While these agreements are often justified under the guise of defense cooperation, they have undeniably negatively affected the environment, people, and communities, through the increased cases of violence and harassment especially against women.

More than the fact that the US military-industrial complex is the single largest institutional source of carbon emissions in the world, the Balikatan exercises pose a threat to marine and terrestial biodiversity while also inflicting trauma on surrounding rural communities.

These so-called “counter-terrorism” efforts only accelerate environmental destruction, fueling human rights violence and environmental neglect, as seen in the hazardous waste dumping in Subic and recent aerial bombings in the Abra and Cordillera regions.

With that, YACAP echoes their call for climate justice and human rights defense.

The militarization of the Philippines serves neither the environment nor the Filipino people. If anything, it has led the country to becoming a dangerous place for environmental defenders, indigenous activists, and advocates. Countless suffer from harassment, violence, abductions, and red tagging that labels them “terrorists” for daring to speak up against the oppressive state.

Environmental defenders like indigenous rights advocates Dexter Capuyan, Bazoo de Jesus; and environmental and cycling advocates James Jazmines and Felix Saavedra Jr., have been abducted and are still missing. With the false promises of ‘national protection’ and improving our national defense, EDCA and other similar treaties are only making us more dependent on the United States. It is clear that it is not in Filipino peoples’ interest to be part of a polluting war between global capitalist nations.

The Philippines’ struggle with climate change is endlessly intertwined with issues of climate imperialism and economic dependency. Imperialism shapes the socio-political landscape of the Philippines, including that of environmental exploitation, the climate crisis, and the country’s ability to adapt to climate change.

While the Philippines is the fifth most mineral-rich nation in the world, its resources are largely extracted by multinational corporations under laws that support foreign ownership, such as the Mining Act of 1995. Marcos Jr. continues to operate the mining industry under the guise of “renewable energy transition”, leading to environmental degradation while providing little economic benefit to the Philippines.

Another example are the reclamation projects in Manila Bay. Dutch corporation Royal Boskalis Westminster NV is contracted for the 265-hectare Pasay Harbor City project with Pasay Harbor City Corporation and a 360-hectare reclamation initiative by SM Prime Holdings. The company also secured a lucrative 1.5 billion-euro contract for dredging, reclamation, and construction of the New Manila International Airport (NMIA) in Bulacan. These projects have sparked criticism, with advocates warning of the potential extreme environment impacts on the bay’s ecosystem and local communities.

Additionally, financial debts to international institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) exacerbate the country’s failure to respond effectively to climate change.

With an external debt exceeding $128.7 billion, nearly half of which is owed to multilateral creditors, significant resources are channeled toward debt repayment rather than social welfare programs that could help Filipinos adapt to the climate crisis. These funds could be put toward enhancing the agricultural sector instead go toward debt repayment.

The US election is more than a foreign affair—it is a crucial determinant of policies that directly impact vulnerable countries. The United States of America remains as one of the largest fossil fuel producers, with policies that have global ramifications. Military exercises across the Philippines are performed to protect the interests of foreign nations, endangering Filipino workers.

Filipino youth, as future leaders of the nation and advocates for climate justice, are at the crossroads of the fight for climate justice and the struggle  against militarization. In the end, only by charting our own course and working to develop a self-reliant economy can we protect our islands and waters. Only by fighting against the meaningless violence of imperialist war and the military-industrial complex will we achieve climate justice.

Climate justice is not possible under climate denier Donald Trump’s administration and the war-mongering United States of America.