Mares' Novices' Hurdle (The Dawn Run)

Thursday, 1:20pm - Cheltenham Festival

Race Overview

The Mares' Novices' Hurdle, known as The Dawn Run (Thursday, 1:20pm), is a Grade 2 event over approximately 2 miles and 1 furlong. Dedicated to mares in their novice hurdling season, this race frequently highlights rising talents in mares’ jump racing. Named after legendary mare Dawn Run, it tests speed, agility, and tactical versatility, often serving as an early stepping stone to future elite mares’ contests.

Key Trends

Understanding historical patterns can significantly narrow down the field:

Age Advantage

Five-year-olds have dominated, winning 6 of the last 8 renewals.

Recent Form

Winners typically have strong recent form, with 7 of the last 8 winners having won their previous start.

Experience Levels

Successful mares usually have between two and five hurdle starts, balancing experience and improvement potential.

Trainer Record

Willie Mullins has an outstanding record, winning the first five editions consecutively, highlighting his dominance in preparing novice mares.

Key Trainer Angles

Willie Mullins

Mullins frequently selects his most promising young mares for this race, showcasing precise targeting and careful development throughout the season.

Henry de Bromhead

De Bromhead consistently prepares mares effectively for Cheltenham’s demands, often achieving peak fitness and performance specifically for this event.

Jockey Influence

Experienced Cheltenham jockeys significantly influence results in this novice mares' hurdle. Riders like Paul Townend and Rachael Blackmore consistently excel here, expertly managing early pace pressures and delivering perfectly timed late challenges.

Preparation Races

Certain prep races consistently point towards success:

Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle (Fairyhouse): Historically crucial, regularly highlighting Mullins-trained mares who subsequently excel at Cheltenham.
Grade 2 Dawn Run Mares Novice Hurdle (Limerick): Important preparation race identifying Irish-trained mares ideally suited to Cheltenham’s competitive conditions.
Jane Seymour Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Sandown): Significant British trial, often spotlighting promising mares capable of performing strongly at Cheltenham.

Race Trends Summary

Factor	Successful Profile
Age	Five-year-olds ideal
Recent Form	Won last outing, ideally within 50 days
Experience	Between two and five hurdle starts
Trainer	Dominance of Willie Mullins
Rating	Optimal official ratings around 140+
Market Position	Favourites perform well historically, though market value often found in mid-priced mares

Risk Factors to Consider

Be cautious about runners that:

Inexperienced mares with fewer than two hurdle starts rarely succeed.
Older mares aged seven and above historically underperform significantly.
Horses stepping markedly up in class without proven graded form typically struggle.

Under-the-Radar Horses

Mares quietly progressing in lower-profile races or consistently placing without gaining attention often represent excellent betting value.

Concertista previously highlighted the potential of mares progressing without significant market support before achieving Cheltenham success.

Golden Nugget Insight

Mares finishing strongly in competitive graded races without winning often peak dramatically at Cheltenham, providing strong betting opportunities.

Pace and Running Styles

Typically run at a steady yet competitive pace, The Dawn Run rewards mares capable of tracking leaders comfortably and conserving sufficient energy for the demanding Cheltenham finish. Successful mares generally exhibit tactical flexibility, sitting just off early leaders before demonstrating strong acceleration late in the race.

Weight Claims and Equipment Considerations

Stable equipment setups indicate reliable, trouble-free preparation, beneficial for novice mares.

Golden Nugget Insight

First-time equipment changes historically indicate preparation concerns and rarely succeed, emphasising stability and consistency.

Actionable Angles

Focus on promising five-year-old mares with recent winning form.
Strongly consider mares trained by Willie Mullins with graded-race experience.
Look for mares showing consistent, incremental improvement across recent starts.

Risk Factors to Consider

Avoid mares with limited competitive hurdle experience (fewer than two starts).
Discount older mares, particularly those aged seven and above.
Be cautious of mares significantly stepping up in class without proven form.

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Final Note

The Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle frequently identifies rising stars in mares’ hurdling. By closely following established trends and key trainer insights, punters can confidently pinpoint mares primed for breakthrough Festival performances.