Expert Racing Analysis & Selections
Expert Racing Analysis & Selections
Tuesday, 2:40pm - Cheltenham Festival
The Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (Tuesday, 2:40pm) is a fiercely competitive Grade 3 event run over 3 miles and 1 furlong. Known for its demanding nature, the Ultima tests stamina, jumping accuracy, and tactical versatility. Historically, it favours tough, battle-hardened horses capable of handling Cheltenham’s challenging terrain, often serving as a stepping-stone to future Grand National contenders. Winners typically blend experience, form, and resilience.
Understanding historical patterns can significantly narrow down the field:
Horses aged between 7 and 9 dominate, accounting for 14 of the last 16 winners.
Lower-weighted horses (under 11 stone) hold an advantage, winning 10 of the last 13 runnings.
Proven form at Cheltenham is crucial, with 11 of the last 15 winners previously placed at the track.
British trainers have historically excelled, with David Pipe, Jonjo O'Neill, and Lucinda Russell all frequently successful.
O'Neill consistently targets this race, often with horses carefully prepared throughout the season, regularly resulting in peak performances at Cheltenham.
Pipe’s runners are meticulously conditioned, typically excelling when conditions turn demanding. His track record here highlights horses primed for maximum effort.
Experienced jockeys with solid Cheltenham records are advantageous in this demanding handicap. Riders such as Tom Scudamore and Richie McLernon have repeatedly demonstrated the tactical acumen and patience necessary to prevail here, especially on horses needing precise pace judgement.
Certain prep races consistently point towards success:
| Factor | Successful Profile |
|---|---|
| Age | 7-9 years ideal |
| Weight | Under 11 stone preferable |
| Experience | Previous Cheltenham form essential |
| Trainer | Jonjo O'Neill, David Pipe notable |
| Rating | Ratings between 140-150 optimal |
| Market Position | Open betting market; favourites often vulnerable |
Be cautious about runners that:
Horses quietly progressing in competitive handicaps without winning can represent excellent value, particularly those with proven stamina and track form.
Corach Rambler previously exemplified this profile, showing incremental improvement prior to winning this race at attractive odds.
Horses consistently placed in similar or slightly higher-grade handicaps without recent victories often peak perfectly for the Ultima.
The Ultima typically unfolds at a relentless pace, rewarding horses who settle comfortably in mid-division or just off the lead, conserving energy for a decisive late challenge. Prominent early leaders rarely succeed unless able to set moderate fractions, highlighting the advantage of patient, stamina-laden tactics.
Equipment stability is a strong positive indicator. Horses racing without recent changes in equipment or claims are generally more reliable, reflecting confident, trouble-free preparations.
First-time blinkers or cheekpieces significantly reduce a horse’s historical chances of success in this demanding handicap.
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Get Our SelectionsThe Ultima Handicap Chase is notably tough and competitive, often rewarding those who meet specific criteria around stamina, course experience, and handicap marks. Understanding and applying these clear trends significantly narrows the field, improving your ability to identify genuine contenders.