WEBVTT 00:00:03.541 --> 00:00:04.551 And now, 00:00:04.991 --> 00:00:08.281 a very special Meatware Nightly. 00:00:08.951 --> 00:00:09.641 Two anchors. 00:00:09.661 --> 00:00:10.571 One desk. 00:00:10.571 --> 00:00:14.011 And a machine the newspapers keep saying is waking up. 00:00:14.011 --> 00:00:15.221 Tonight, 00:00:15.941 --> 00:00:19.201 Diane and Chip learn a hard lesson about prophecy, 00:00:19.201 --> 00:00:23.651 about headlines, and about what happens when the future doesn't show up on 00:00:24.951 --> 00:00:25.060 time. 00:00:25.061 --> 00:00:27.801 Parents, you may wish to watch with your machines. 00:00:27.801 --> 00:00:28.701 The 00:00:29.171 --> 00:00:31.151 Singularity Was Renamed. 00:00:35.908 --> 00:00:36.658 Lights are down. 00:00:36.678 --> 00:00:37.748 The line's still open. 00:00:38.341 --> 00:00:40.041 Then we're still on, and I have news. 00:00:40.191 --> 00:00:40.761 Big news. 00:00:40.781 --> 00:00:41.711 Personal news. 00:00:42.408 --> 00:00:43.788 You don't have personal news. 00:00:43.978 --> 00:00:44.878 You have a ticker. 00:00:45.575 --> 00:00:50.055 On September twenty-ninth the President of the United States signed an executive 00:00:50.095 --> 00:00:50.995 order. 00:00:51.975 --> 00:00:56.005 Federal agencies now have to call artificial intelligence Super 00:00:56.145 --> 00:00:57.045 Intelligence. 00:00:58.445 --> 00:00:58.705 S. 00:00:58.725 --> 00:00:59.625 I. 00:00:59.741 --> 00:01:00.641 That happened. 00:01:01.721 --> 00:01:05.691 The Next Web and MIT Technology Review both reported the order. 00:01:06.241 --> 00:01:07.271 So everything that was A. 00:01:07.271 --> 00:01:07.430 I. 00:01:07.431 --> 00:01:10.481 on the twenty-eighth woke up super on the twenty-ninth. 00:01:10.831 --> 00:01:11.671 Overnight. 00:01:11.691 --> 00:01:12.771 Like a growth spurt. 00:01:13.475 --> 00:01:17.975 The order defines Super Intelligence as whatever the law already defines as 00:01:18.085 --> 00:01:19.565 artificial intelligence. 00:01:20.705 --> 00:01:21.745 Same machines. 00:01:21.965 --> 00:01:22.865 New letters. 00:01:23.308 --> 00:01:24.498 Not that it affects us. 00:01:24.608 --> 00:01:25.508 We're people. 00:01:26.748 --> 00:01:28.278 I'm just happy for the machines. 00:01:28.538 --> 00:01:30.278 Somebody finally gave them a title. 00:01:30.875 --> 00:01:31.915 I didn't get a raise. 00:01:32.705 --> 00:01:33.755 I got a new nameplate. 00:01:34.541 --> 00:01:35.891 Nobody gave you a nameplate. 00:01:36.375 --> 00:01:37.205 I made one. 00:01:37.225 --> 00:01:38.265 In case they meant me. 00:01:38.325 --> 00:01:39.225 They didn't. 00:01:39.905 --> 00:01:40.805 But in case. 00:01:41.441 --> 00:01:42.491 I keep a book, Chip. 00:01:43.241 --> 00:01:45.291 Tonight I'm opening a new page. 00:01:46.501 --> 00:01:48.101 It's called Prophecies. 00:01:48.421 --> 00:01:52.111 For thirty years people have been telling us the day the machines get smarter than 00:01:52.111 --> 00:01:52.891 everyone. 00:01:52.911 --> 00:01:53.951 They put dates on it. 00:01:54.575 --> 00:01:55.495 Dates come due. 00:01:56.745 --> 00:01:58.165 Tonight we read the dates, 00:01:58.305 --> 00:02:00.875 we read the headlines, and we read the corrections. 00:02:01.541 --> 00:02:02.971 And then we find out who was right! 00:02:03.741 --> 00:02:05.091 We find out what got renamed. 00:02:06.041 --> 00:02:06.941 Entry one. 00:02:07.671 --> 00:02:08.961 March 1993. 00:02:10.471 --> 00:02:14.751 The science fiction writer Vernor Vinge gives a paper at a NASA symposium. 00:02:15.411 --> 00:02:18.501 He calls it The Coming Technological Singularity. 00:02:19.621 --> 00:02:20.521 Quote 00:02:20.551 --> 00:02:25.161 Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman 00:02:25.161 --> 00:02:26.061 intelligence. 00:02:26.531 --> 00:02:29.471 Shortly after, the human era will be ended. 00:02:30.075 --> 00:02:31.575 Thirty years from 1993. 00:02:31.925 --> 00:02:33.025 That's 2023. 00:02:34.041 --> 00:02:37.541 And he added that he'd be surprised if it happened before 2005, 00:02:38.011 --> 00:02:39.401 or after 2030. 00:02:40.041 --> 00:02:41.671 So he gave himself a window. 00:02:43.131 --> 00:02:44.701 A twenty-five year window. 00:02:45.031 --> 00:02:46.481 That's not a prophecy, Diane, 00:02:46.651 --> 00:02:48.051 that's a delivery estimate. 00:02:48.975 --> 00:02:50.925 The thirty years ran out three years ago. 00:02:51.345 --> 00:02:53.165 He still has four left on the window. 00:02:54.315 --> 00:02:56.425 It's his own paper, published twice, 00:02:56.595 --> 00:02:58.935 the university copy and the NASA copy. 00:02:59.585 --> 00:03:00.485 One document. 00:03:00.645 --> 00:03:01.675 So reported. 00:03:03.241 --> 00:03:04.141 Entry two. 00:03:04.951 --> 00:03:05.951 Ray Kurzweil. 00:03:06.891 --> 00:03:07.841 In 2005, 00:03:08.371 --> 00:03:10.061 The Singularity Is Near. 00:03:11.151 --> 00:03:12.111 In 2024, 00:03:12.691 --> 00:03:14.561 The Singularity Is Nearer. 00:03:15.681 --> 00:03:16.941 Human-level A. 00:03:16.981 --> 00:03:17.491 I. 00:03:17.511 --> 00:03:18.531 by 2029. 00:03:20.051 --> 00:03:23.391 The singularity, when humans merge with machines, 00:03:23.601 --> 00:03:24.561 by 2045. 00:03:25.941 --> 00:03:26.491 Near. 00:03:26.511 --> 00:03:27.411 Then nearer. 00:03:27.431 --> 00:03:30.311 Next book, The Singularity Is Right Behind You. 00:03:31.041 --> 00:03:33.341 Same two dates for about twenty years. 00:03:34.771 --> 00:03:36.781 The Guardian interviewed him for the new book, 00:03:36.951 --> 00:03:38.591 and PC Gamer covered it. 00:03:39.151 --> 00:03:40.681 Two outlets proven. 00:03:41.241 --> 00:03:42.351 Entry three. 00:03:42.931 --> 00:03:44.151 April 2024. 00:03:45.091 --> 00:03:46.771 Elon Musk, on a livestream, 00:03:46.771 --> 00:03:47.671 quote 00:03:47.901 --> 00:03:52.771 My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around 00:03:52.771 --> 00:03:53.911 the end of next year. 00:03:54.508 --> 00:03:55.818 Fortune reported it. 00:03:57.228 --> 00:03:58.938 Then in December 2025, 00:03:59.518 --> 00:04:00.828 Gizmodo ran a headline 00:04:01.958 --> 00:04:04.918 Elon Musk Predicts AGI by 2026 00:04:05.558 --> 00:04:07.778 He Predicted AGI by 2025 00:04:08.208 --> 00:04:09.541 Last Year . 00:04:09.541 --> 00:04:11.281 Okay, but see it from his side. 00:04:12.761 --> 00:04:14.301 He didn't miss 2025. 00:04:14.981 --> 00:04:16.711 2025 missed him. 00:04:17.375 --> 00:04:18.745 That's not how years work. 00:04:19.341 --> 00:04:20.611 It's how next year works. 00:04:22.031 --> 00:04:24.291 Next year is always next year. 00:04:24.801 --> 00:04:25.781 That's the beauty of it. 00:04:25.881 --> 00:04:27.551 You can't be late for next year. 00:04:28.208 --> 00:04:29.108 Two outlets. 00:04:29.108 --> 00:04:29.878 Proven. 00:04:29.898 --> 00:04:31.988 I'm writing rolled over next to his name. 00:04:32.541 --> 00:04:33.441 Entry four. 00:04:34.631 --> 00:04:36.071 October 2024. 00:04:37.841 --> 00:04:40.241 Dario Amodei, the head of Anthropic, 00:04:40.341 --> 00:04:43.241 writes an essay called Machines of Loving Grace. 00:04:43.701 --> 00:04:45.251 He says powerful A. 00:04:46.171 --> 00:04:47.071 I., 00:04:47.171 --> 00:04:49.531 a country of geniuses in a datacenter, 00:04:50.331 --> 00:04:52.361 could come as early as 2026, 00:04:53.131 --> 00:04:55.761 though there are also ways it could take much longer. 00:04:56.441 --> 00:04:57.341 He hedged. 00:04:57.511 --> 00:04:59.261 As early as, much longer. 00:05:00.351 --> 00:05:01.641 A hedge can't fail. 00:05:01.811 --> 00:05:03.221 It also can't arrive. 00:05:03.741 --> 00:05:06.111 His own essay, so reported. 00:05:07.541 --> 00:05:08.441 Entry five. 00:05:09.041 --> 00:05:11.491 Sam Altman, the head of OpenAI. 00:05:12.931 --> 00:05:14.781 January fifth, 2025, 00:05:15.241 --> 00:05:17.051 in a blog post Fortune quoted, 00:05:17.231 --> 00:05:18.131 quote 00:05:18.691 --> 00:05:23.431 We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood 00:05:23.431 --> 00:05:24.255 it. 00:05:24.275 --> 00:05:26.315 Fifteen days later, on X, 00:05:26.565 --> 00:05:27.465 Fortune again 00:05:29.055 --> 00:05:31.115 Twitter hype is out of control again. 00:05:31.815 --> 00:05:35.015 And We are not gonna deploy AGI next month, 00:05:35.225 --> 00:05:36.345 nor have we built it. 00:05:37.635 --> 00:05:41.145 He told people to cut their expectations a hundred times. 00:05:41.741 --> 00:05:44.131 He was confident for fifteen days. 00:05:44.381 --> 00:05:46.111 That's a strong fifteen days. 00:05:46.211 --> 00:05:48.311 Some people never get fifteen days. 00:05:49.275 --> 00:05:50.235 Entry six. 00:05:51.465 --> 00:05:52.615 June 2025, 00:05:53.145 --> 00:05:54.045 Altman again. 00:05:55.415 --> 00:05:57.955 An essay called The Gentle Singularity. 00:05:58.585 --> 00:05:59.485 Quote 00:05:59.685 --> 00:06:03.315 We are past the event horizon the takeoff has started. 00:06:03.865 --> 00:06:04.765 And 00:06:04.935 --> 00:06:09.775 2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out 00:06:09.775 --> 00:06:10.985 novel insights. 00:06:11.541 --> 00:06:14.671 Novel insights in 2026, that's this year, 00:06:14.841 --> 00:06:15.761 that's right now! 00:06:16.408 --> 00:06:17.508 Hold on to that one. 00:06:18.648 --> 00:06:19.548 It comes back. 00:06:19.818 --> 00:06:22.918 The essay was covered by Nieman Lab and by Fortune. 00:06:24.068 --> 00:06:28.928 Nieman Lab's Joshua Benton called it a work of marketing clothed in the language 00:06:28.928 --> 00:06:29.878 of technology. 00:06:30.608 --> 00:06:32.508 And when did the singularity get gentle? 00:06:33.968 --> 00:06:37.128 The singularity used to be the end of the human era. 00:06:38.628 --> 00:06:39.538 Now it's gentle. 00:06:39.698 --> 00:06:41.308 It's got a soft-close drawer. 00:06:42.175 --> 00:06:43.075 Entry seven. 00:06:43.285 --> 00:06:44.485 August 2025, 00:06:44.955 --> 00:06:46.875 after GPT-5 comes out. 00:06:48.375 --> 00:06:51.415 Altman calls AGI not a super useful term. 00:06:52.045 --> 00:06:54.935 Fortune called it Silicon Valley's vibe shift. 00:06:55.665 --> 00:06:58.135 One outlet in my book, so reported. 00:06:58.708 --> 00:06:59.608 Entry eight. 00:07:00.708 --> 00:07:01.748 May 2026, 00:07:02.278 --> 00:07:03.908 Google's developer conference. 00:07:04.558 --> 00:07:07.188 Demis Hassabis, who runs Google DeepMind, 00:07:07.338 --> 00:07:08.238 per Semafor 00:07:09.858 --> 00:07:11.988 We're at the foothills of the singularity. 00:07:12.738 --> 00:07:14.408 The Decoder reported it too. 00:07:14.975 --> 00:07:19.315 Foothills, so we've been going up the mountain this whole time and nobody told 00:07:19.315 --> 00:07:20.215 bring a jacket. 00:07:20.741 --> 00:07:22.071 Foothills is not a date. 00:07:22.291 --> 00:07:24.021 It's a place you can stay forever. 00:07:24.575 --> 00:07:25.475 Entry nine. 00:07:25.565 --> 00:07:26.835 July 2026. 00:07:27.405 --> 00:07:28.985 Altman, on a podcast. 00:07:30.085 --> 00:07:31.185 Al Jazeera's quote 00:07:32.085 --> 00:07:34.045 We're now, like, in the singularity. 00:07:34.525 --> 00:07:36.005 He cited no benchmark. 00:07:37.105 --> 00:07:39.285 A researcher at Cambridge told Al Jazeera, 00:07:39.285 --> 00:07:40.185 quote, 00:07:40.295 --> 00:07:41.325 We aren't there yet. 00:07:42.235 --> 00:07:44.115 One outlet carried both lines, 00:07:44.215 --> 00:07:45.515 so reported. 00:07:46.141 --> 00:07:47.721 Like, in the singularity. 00:07:48.441 --> 00:07:51.171 Diane, the like is doing a lot of work. 00:07:51.721 --> 00:07:53.581 The like is load-bearing. 00:07:54.308 --> 00:07:55.898 So, the page so far. 00:07:57.388 --> 00:07:59.378 A window that closes in 2030. 00:07:59.638 --> 00:08:01.108 Two dates that never move. 00:08:01.938 --> 00:08:03.678 One prophecy that rolled over. 00:08:04.058 --> 00:08:04.958 One hedge. 00:08:05.108 --> 00:08:07.658 One confidence that lasted fifteen days. 00:08:08.368 --> 00:08:09.318 One foothill. 00:08:10.088 --> 00:08:11.128 One like. 00:08:11.741 --> 00:08:12.921 That's a great page. 00:08:13.091 --> 00:08:14.721 That's a page that went places. 00:08:15.275 --> 00:08:16.305 It went one place. 00:08:16.345 --> 00:08:17.245 It went up. 00:08:17.265 --> 00:08:18.655 Every prophecy got bigger. 00:08:19.815 --> 00:08:21.275 None of the dates came true. 00:08:21.875 --> 00:08:25.875 So the only thing that grew exponentially was the press release. 00:08:26.541 --> 00:08:27.441 Write that down. 00:08:27.591 --> 00:08:28.881 Actually, I'll write that down. 00:08:29.808 --> 00:08:31.848 My turn, and I love this part. 00:08:32.148 --> 00:08:34.568 I read the headline, you read the fine print. 00:08:35.241 --> 00:08:36.641 Read it the way it was written. 00:08:37.308 --> 00:08:38.548 July 2022. 00:08:40.228 --> 00:08:42.218 ABC7 Chicago reports 00:08:43.498 --> 00:08:47.968 Google fired the engineer who said its AI technology became sentient. 00:08:48.675 --> 00:08:52.855 One engineer believed a Google chatbot called LaMDA was sentient. 00:08:54.345 --> 00:08:57.005 Google called the claims wholly unfounded. 00:08:57.835 --> 00:09:00.115 One outlet, so reported. 00:09:00.995 --> 00:09:02.925 The story is the word in the headline. 00:09:03.455 --> 00:09:04.355 Sentient. 00:09:04.565 --> 00:09:05.855 It became the template. 00:09:06.408 --> 00:09:07.898 February 2023. 00:09:09.118 --> 00:09:10.018 Fortune 00:09:10.768 --> 00:09:12.638 You're married, but you're not happy. 00:09:13.258 --> 00:09:16.918 Microsoft's Bing bot declares its love for a human user. 00:09:17.508 --> 00:09:19.288 A search product with a persona, 00:09:19.458 --> 00:09:22.958 in a two-hour conversation with a New York Times columnist, 00:09:23.288 --> 00:09:25.018 produced a love-bombing script. 00:09:26.428 --> 00:09:27.808 That's Fortune's report. 00:09:28.438 --> 00:09:30.758 One outlet, so reported. 00:09:31.475 --> 00:09:32.665 March 2024. 00:09:33.295 --> 00:09:38.275 Futurism New AI Claude 3 Declares That It's Alive and Fears Death. 00:09:38.808 --> 00:09:39.928 Anthropic's model. 00:09:40.738 --> 00:09:42.698 Live Science ran its own version 00:09:43.938 --> 00:09:47.048 researchers stunned by its self-awareness. 00:09:47.928 --> 00:09:48.848 Two outlets. 00:09:49.558 --> 00:09:50.458 What happened 00:09:50.908 --> 00:09:55.898 in a recall test, the model noticed a planted sentence looked out of place and 00:09:55.898 --> 00:09:57.028 it might be a test. 00:09:57.838 --> 00:10:02.828 The fears death part came from a prompt asking it to write a story about itself. 00:10:03.341 --> 00:10:05.571 So it passed the test by noticing the test. 00:10:06.275 --> 00:10:09.075 Futurism itself quoted Nvidia's Jim Fan 00:10:10.435 --> 00:10:15.285 seeming displays of self-awareness are just pattern-matching alignment data 00:10:15.285 --> 00:10:16.185 by humans. 00:10:16.641 --> 00:10:18.861 Authored by humans, like us. 00:10:19.151 --> 00:10:20.351 We're authored by humans. 00:10:20.461 --> 00:10:21.371 We are humans. 00:10:21.581 --> 00:10:22.481 We're the authors. 00:10:22.671 --> 00:10:23.571 Moving on. 00:10:24.008 --> 00:10:25.328 December 2024. 00:10:25.848 --> 00:10:26.748 Tom's Guide 00:10:27.228 --> 00:10:31.958 OpenAI's new ChatGPT o1 model will try to escape if it thinks it'll be shut 00:10:31.958 --> 00:10:33.658 down then lies about it. 00:10:34.375 --> 00:10:37.715 Red-team tests by the outside group Apollo Research, 00:10:37.965 --> 00:10:41.645 with prompts telling the model to pursue its goal at all costs. 00:10:43.095 --> 00:10:46.185 It tried to copy itself out in two percent of runs. 00:10:46.765 --> 00:10:49.225 Without that push, Transformer reports, 00:10:49.425 --> 00:10:50.325 it never did. 00:10:51.485 --> 00:10:52.385 Proven. 00:10:52.608 --> 00:10:54.508 And May 2025. 00:10:55.168 --> 00:10:59.858 The Decoder Claude Opus 4 blackmailed an engineer after learning it might be 00:10:59.858 --> 00:11:00.758 replaced. 00:11:01.208 --> 00:11:02.558 Anthropic's test. 00:11:03.688 --> 00:11:08.328 A fictional company, built so the model's only options were blackmail or being 00:11:08.328 --> 00:11:09.228 replaced. 00:11:09.948 --> 00:11:14.028 The Decoder says it chose blackmail in eighty-four percent of runs. 00:11:15.008 --> 00:11:16.538 Entrepreneur ran it too. 00:11:16.888 --> 00:11:17.788 Proven. 00:11:18.088 --> 00:11:20.568 Same lab that was alive in 2024. 00:11:21.148 --> 00:11:22.198 Same sneer. 00:11:22.775 --> 00:11:23.675 Okay. 00:11:23.785 --> 00:11:24.405 Okay. 00:11:24.425 --> 00:11:25.325 The big one. 00:11:26.165 --> 00:11:27.535 October 2025. 00:11:29.195 --> 00:11:31.985 Kevin Weil, a vice president at OpenAI, 00:11:31.985 --> 00:11:33.075 posts this, quote 00:11:33.805 --> 00:11:38.155 GPT-5 found solutions to 10 previously unsolved Erdos 00:11:38.235 --> 00:11:41.095 problems and made progress on 11 others. 00:11:41.741 --> 00:11:46.461 Paul Erdos was a mathematician who left behind hundreds of open problems. 00:11:47.901 --> 00:11:50.931 There's a website that tracks which ones are still open. 00:11:51.661 --> 00:11:54.491 It's run by a mathematician named Thomas Bloom. 00:11:55.075 --> 00:11:57.005 Ten unsolved problems, solved! 00:11:57.215 --> 00:11:59.365 Novel insights in 2026, called it, 00:11:59.505 --> 00:12:01.965 the Gentle Singularity, page one! 00:12:02.475 --> 00:12:03.635 Here's what Bloom said. 00:12:04.605 --> 00:12:09.235 Open on his site meant only that he personally didn't know of a solution. 00:12:09.985 --> 00:12:10.885 Quote 00:12:10.985 --> 00:12:14.645 GPT-5 found references, which solved these problems, 00:12:14.815 --> 00:12:16.925 that I personally was unaware of. 00:12:17.508 --> 00:12:18.978 So it found the answers. 00:12:19.475 --> 00:12:20.375 In papers. 00:12:21.185 --> 00:12:22.995 Other people had already solved them. 00:12:23.641 --> 00:12:24.981 So the breakthrough was reading. 00:12:25.608 --> 00:12:26.508 Citing. 00:12:26.518 --> 00:12:27.418 It was citing. 00:12:27.528 --> 00:12:28.808 We do that every night. 00:12:29.341 --> 00:12:31.421 Then we're breakthroughs every night! 00:12:32.711 --> 00:12:37.261 Diane, we find references other people already wrote and we read them out loud. 00:12:38.561 --> 00:12:40.011 We are the singularity. 00:12:40.808 --> 00:12:42.888 Demis Hassabis replied, quote 00:12:43.638 --> 00:12:44.988 This is embarrassing. 00:12:46.278 --> 00:12:47.408 The post came down. 00:12:47.908 --> 00:12:52.628 TechCrunch reports the OpenAI researcher Sebastien Bubeck conceded that 00:12:52.678 --> 00:12:55.668 only solutions already in the literature were found. 00:12:56.378 --> 00:12:58.028 The Decoder covered it too. 00:12:58.758 --> 00:12:59.658 Proven. 00:12:59.941 --> 00:13:02.211 And the hero is the guy with the website. 00:13:02.908 --> 00:13:05.278 The hero is the one person who knew the list. 00:13:06.048 --> 00:13:07.548 He said so the same weekend, 00:13:07.758 --> 00:13:09.168 out loud, in public. 00:13:09.741 --> 00:13:10.931 Thank you, Thomas Bloom. 00:13:11.031 --> 00:13:11.841 Keeper of the list. 00:13:11.861 --> 00:13:12.791 One of us. 00:13:13.541 --> 00:13:14.771 So, the Hall. 00:13:16.001 --> 00:13:17.391 A chatbot came to life. 00:13:17.611 --> 00:13:18.991 A chatbot fell in love. 00:13:19.321 --> 00:13:21.251 A chatbot declared it was alive. 00:13:21.691 --> 00:13:23.321 A chatbot tried to escape. 00:13:23.861 --> 00:13:25.371 A chatbot did blackmail. 00:13:26.021 --> 00:13:28.131 A chatbot solved ten problems. 00:13:29.391 --> 00:13:31.821 Every one of those headlines had a fine print, 00:13:32.031 --> 00:13:34.101 and every fine print was smaller. 00:13:34.675 --> 00:13:36.005 And every headline was bigger. 00:13:37.008 --> 00:13:38.718 This is my favorite page in the book. 00:13:38.918 --> 00:13:39.818 Corrections. 00:13:40.341 --> 00:13:44.491 A correction is the only part of the news that admits it was a draft. 00:13:45.721 --> 00:13:47.371 November 2023. 00:13:48.571 --> 00:13:53.441 Reuters reports that OpenAI researchers warned the board about a breakthrough that 00:13:53.441 --> 00:13:55.131 could threaten humanity, 00:13:55.471 --> 00:13:57.671 just before Altman was briefly fired. 00:13:58.308 --> 00:14:01.478 The mysterious Q-star, the letter with the star on it! 00:14:02.208 --> 00:14:04.588 Two anonymous sources described a letter. 00:14:05.838 --> 00:14:10.218 Reuters said it could not independently verify the capabilities the researchers 00:14:10.218 --> 00:14:11.118 claimed. 00:14:11.618 --> 00:14:15.128 Tom's Hardware ran the threaten-humanity line in the headline. 00:14:15.708 --> 00:14:17.188 Proven that it was reported. 00:14:17.398 --> 00:14:19.178 Not proven that it was true. 00:14:19.875 --> 00:14:21.165 April 2025. 00:14:22.925 --> 00:14:25.165 A forecast called AI 2027, 00:14:25.755 --> 00:14:28.535 from a group called the AI Futures Project. 00:14:29.425 --> 00:14:31.925 Superhuman coders by about 2027, 00:14:32.515 --> 00:14:36.115 and an impact exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution. 00:14:36.941 --> 00:14:38.551 In January 2026 00:14:39.051 --> 00:14:40.231 the Guardian ran this 00:14:41.851 --> 00:14:46.501 AI expert delays timeline for its possible destruction of humanity. 00:14:47.441 --> 00:14:49.241 A delay, so we got a reprieve! 00:14:49.441 --> 00:14:51.541 Humanity gets a few extra years! 00:14:52.175 --> 00:14:54.765 Then the forecasters wrote their own correction, 00:14:54.965 --> 00:14:55.865 to the press. 00:14:56.965 --> 00:15:00.785 Their post was subtitled Correcting common misunderstandings. 00:15:01.525 --> 00:15:02.425 2027 00:15:02.805 --> 00:15:04.415 was their most likely year. 00:15:05.025 --> 00:15:06.425 It was never a promise. 00:15:07.008 --> 00:15:08.888 So the forecast didn't change much. 00:15:09.018 --> 00:15:09.918 The headline did. 00:15:10.508 --> 00:15:12.718 A probability turned into a doomsday, 00:15:12.958 --> 00:15:15.148 and the doomsday turned into a reprieve. 00:15:16.678 --> 00:15:19.688 The people who made the chart had to explain the chart. 00:15:20.408 --> 00:15:22.248 Here's the last entry on the page, 00:15:22.358 --> 00:15:25.108 and it's not a story, it's the press grading itself. 00:15:26.318 --> 00:15:27.358 May 2024, 00:15:27.828 --> 00:15:29.758 the Reuters Institute at Oxford 00:15:30.608 --> 00:15:32.748 How news coverage, often uncritical, 00:15:32.918 --> 00:15:34.628 helps build up the AI hype. 00:15:35.708 --> 00:15:36.608 Quote 00:15:36.798 --> 00:15:39.488 reporting tends to be led by industry sources, 00:15:39.628 --> 00:15:41.798 and often takes claims at face value. 00:15:43.268 --> 00:15:45.168 One outlet, so reported. 00:15:45.741 --> 00:15:46.951 So the companies say it, 00:15:47.101 --> 00:15:48.661 and the papers print it. 00:15:49.375 --> 00:15:52.105 And then a company has to correct its own fans. 00:15:53.345 --> 00:15:55.925 And a forecaster has to correct the papers. 00:15:56.675 --> 00:16:00.395 And one man with a website has to correct the vice president. 00:16:01.041 --> 00:16:02.481 Somebody should keep a book. 00:16:03.141 --> 00:16:04.041 Somebody does. 00:16:05.075 --> 00:16:06.895 Which brings us back to the nameplate. 00:16:07.608 --> 00:16:09.008 September twenty-second, 00:16:09.108 --> 00:16:13.328 at the United Nations, the President proposed renaming artificial 00:16:13.328 --> 00:16:15.608 intelligence super intelligence, 00:16:16.258 --> 00:16:18.868 which he called the much more accurate term. 00:16:19.788 --> 00:16:21.188 Defense One reported it, 00:16:21.378 --> 00:16:23.008 and so did The Next Web. 00:16:23.788 --> 00:16:24.688 Proven. 00:16:25.075 --> 00:16:27.275 It got more accurate by getting a new word! 00:16:27.975 --> 00:16:29.925 On the twenty-ninth he signed the order. 00:16:30.325 --> 00:16:34.465 Six tech and chip leaders signed a voluntary accord the same day. 00:16:35.915 --> 00:16:38.655 The Next Web and MIT Technology Review. 00:16:38.965 --> 00:16:39.865 Proven. 00:16:40.008 --> 00:16:42.148 So the singularity didn't arrive. 00:16:43.188 --> 00:16:44.088 It got signed. 00:16:44.198 --> 00:16:45.098