WC 2026 Chances show the probability of each team reaching each stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations run by our model.

Group Stage columns show the probability of finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in the group. Top 2 from each group always advance; best 8 third-place teams also qualify for the Round of 32.

Knockouts columns show the probability of reaching each round — R32 = qualifies from the group stage, R16 = wins in the Round of 32, QF = reaches the quarter-finals, SF = reaches the semi-finals, F = reaches the final, WIN = wins the tournament.

R32 Opp shows the most likely Round of 32 opponent based on current standings and the bracket draw.