Match Predictions are generated primarily by Rugby4Cast's Elo-based model, but it also looks at other things like rest periods, home advantage and scoring patterns in historical games — both in head to head matches and overall — to work out an expected score for each team based on location and current ranking. Each prediction shows the probability of a home win, draw, or away win, along with a predicted score and margin.
Probabilities above 50% indicate a favourite. Margins are model predictions — not guaranteed scores — and reflect the expected points difference after accounting for home advantage and relative team strength.
Results are shown in green (correct) or red (incorrect) relative to the prediction once matches are played.