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style=\"text-align: center;\">​​<span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><strong></strong></span><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><strong></strong></span>​​<br></div></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><strong>Oldroyd-Boyd</strong>: “How close are we to the collapse [UK government], do you think?​​<br><br></span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><strong>Betz:</strong> “I think it's likely before the next election. Its very likely within five years and almost inevitable within ten.<br><br></span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><strong>Oldroyd-Boyd:</strong> You give statistical methodological examples of how this comes about using essentially the methodology of Barbara Walters, who’s one of your greatest critics accuses you of misrepresenting the statistics. There are some complicated mathematics in here, but essentially you put it down to I think 85% within the four years. How do you come to that figure. What are the things you are weighing up in order to get essentially to get to the statistical basis of your argument? </span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><strong>Betz:</strong>&nbsp;I took a number. It’s not my number. It’s not my own invention. It’s from Barbara Walter’s book, “Civil Wars, How They Start and How to Stop Them, in which she concludes that in a state in which the preconditions for civil war exist, the actual likelihood of one occurring in any given year is 4 percent. So I just took that 4 percent, and you imagine if you roll the dice five times in a row, you get to about 18.5 percent of a likelihood that you’re going to roll and come up under four. Then, however, you have to consider that it’s the whole of the Western system. So, it’s not just one country that is in this condition. It’s multiple countries, and they are deeply interconnected. So, if it kicks off in one place, let’s say Ireland or France or Britain or Belgium, Sweden; one could go through a lengthy list of places where the conditions described are apparent. It’s likely to transmit to neighboring countries. Here I had to depart from the existing literature. Let’s say if it breaks out, it’s got a 50 percent chance of transmitting somewhere else. And you simply play that out in a system of interconnected states, over a period of five years, with a certain potential of transmission, you get to a much larger number. I think I said in the paper it might have been 80 percent. I can remember off the top of my head but it’s a big number. It’s certainly more than 50%. So, that’s the mathematics of it. I am not a statistician. It’s a fairly simple logical extrapolation of a number existing in the literature just measured over four years with a potential transmission factor.</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">&nbsp;</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><strong>Oldroyd-Boyd:</strong> So given that you are using Barbara Walter’s own numbers, own statistical methodology and own extrapolative methodology, why is she so unwilling, in fact to draw the question on a broader basis? Why is the majority of the academy working in your area so unwilling on a basic fact of analysis to accept what you propound?</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">&nbsp;</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><strong>Betz: </strong>That’s a good question. I can’t speak for them. I don’t know. I would like to know. I wish she was here and she could explain. I mean does she not believe here 4 percent number? Those three factors that I mentioned to you, that’s from chapter two of her book. I’m perplexed. I think its very odd for someone to write a book a that is focused on the United States and a civil war in the United States. I think some people are frightened by reality and by punishment. She’s not here. I don’t know her. It has to do with political positioning. There is a strong feeling that currently the right is using civil war as a threat to push the civil war agenda. It’s not real it’s a gambit. I think they are wrong. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">&nbsp;</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;<span style=\"font-size:12px;\">New Forum Lit Fest 2026&nbsp;</span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><br></span></div><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;<span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">June 6, 2026, London&nbsp;</span></span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">&nbsp;</span></div>","verticalAlignment":"top"},"metaData":{"position":{"left":-690,"top":1179},"size":{"width":370,"height":1241}}},{"type":"line","id":"id1793063744596","elementProperties":{"tagName":"DIV","behaviours":null,"isLocked":false,"name":"Line 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class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"><strong><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span></strong></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><br><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"><em>In Civil War Comes to the West</em> (2023), David Betz identifies France, Ireland, and the UK as the subversive launch pads that will likely unleash 21st-century \"Peasant revolts.\" He says these popular risings are meant to \"punish <em>post-Nationalist</em> elites for 'betraying their countries' and violating Locke's social contract.&nbsp;<br><br>When civil war erupts in one of these three countries, Betz's controversial statistical predictive model estimates the probability that civil conflagrations will metastasize to 15 possible at-risk European nations is 85 percent. In short, Betz's model predicts the outbreak of civil wars in Europe and America in the next ten years is \"virtually inevitable.\"<br><br>​Professor Walter, whose civil-war predictive model has been generally accepted by her peers and conflict specialists, served on the Political Instability Task Force (PITF). The group of academics, government, and non-profit conflict specialists was commissioned by the CIA to develop a two-year predictive model of countries where political instability and armed conflict could potentially lead to civil wars.&nbsp;<br><br>The PTIF task force study concluded that a country meeting the criteria for an armed conflict had a 4% annual probability of descending into civil war in that year. The criteria included whether a country's national elections were free and fair, whether any important social groups were left out of the political process, whether stable major political parties represented national constituencies, and whether the losers voluntarily conceded defeat in the election.&nbsp;<br>​<br>Betz took Walter's 4% rate and extrapolated it over a five-year cumulative period. He also factored in the knock-on effect of a revolution in one country spreading to any number of 15 European nations he identified as being high-risk. By 2030, Betz estimated an 85% chance that civil war would occur in a Western country and spread to others.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>Dissenting from the <em>Vio-Skeptics </em>and the <em>Walterites</em>, Fanon International found Betz's force-multiplying model both practical and realistic. The historical experience of the 1917-23 Russian Revolution and the civil war that followed World War I, and the&nbsp; &nbsp; 1944-49 Greek civil war after World War II, supports Betz's premise. A civil war in the UK, Ireland, or France would likely spread to other European countries and the United States.<br><br>The confluence of warning signs in Europe today is unmistakable. The 2024 Southport Rebellion in several British cities, which followed the murder of four little girls by a Rwandan immigrant, ultimately made landfall in Belfast, Ireland. In June, a 40-year-old white indigenous Irish man in Belfast was stabbed in the face, neck, and back by a 30-year-old asylum seeker from Sudan. In response, groups of men in Black hoods went door-to-door in neighborhoods, identifying immigrant residents and forcing them from their homes before setting the residences on fire.&nbsp;</span></span></span>​​<br></div><div><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><br></div><div><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\">As for France, since the sans-culottes stormed the Bastille in 1789, the country has had five republics, two monarchies, two empires, a pro-Nazi Vichy regime government, and sixteen constitutions. Anarchy, not stable democratic governance, is a profoundly French convention. Even now, the initial protests by high school students over deplorable facilities, a shortage of books, and large class sizes have spread to teachers and union members since September 17. If Betz was gambling with house money on France as the spark that ignites an 1848-style European reckoning, his odds are fairly even, not an outlier.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>America's <em>Fourth Rome Necropolis</em> is also a veritable house of cards. ​In 2018, FI's New Black Nationalists predicted an existential crisis or governmental collapse, induced by a financial meltdown, a contested presidential election, a decisive military defeat, a coup d'état, or state succession movements, would befall America by 2030.<br><br>Still, we were caught off guard by the infamous January 6, 2021,<em> Barrister's Coup</em> assault on the U.S. Capitol. It very nearly succeeded. Our predictive crisis model failed to anticipate something that has never happened in American history: the fabrication of a constitutional crisis spun from a tissue of lies about a stolen election, led no less by the sitting president. In other words, <em>a manufactured crisis.</em><br><br>The failed <em>Barrister's Coup</em> didn't diminish FI's analysis. Quite the opposite; <em>Nero Germanicus's</em> reelection, and subsequent prosecution of wars against Iran, Russia, and Yemen's Houthis, have accelerated national decline, global inflation, and supply chain disruption. The possibility of state collapse followed by civil war in America is all the more likely by 2030 in the absence of a voluntary \"national divorce\" settlement.&nbsp;<br><br>The <em>Vio-Skeptics</em>&nbsp;and<em> Walterites'</em> broadsides on David Betz's predictive civil-war model are fair game. Honest people can disagree on the liklihood and scale of civil war occurring in the West, if at all. Nevertheless,&nbsp;Fanon International disagrees with their assessment.&nbsp;<br><br>Betz's detractors who complain that he is \"stretching\" Professor Walter's formulaic 4% chance of civil war in countries that meet the criteria for armed conflict are whining because Betz is in the spotlight. They would be better off refuting his projection with facts, logic, and mitigation strategies, as Taylor does. Amid their preoccupation with forecasting and defending their turf, they have overlooked Betz's more substantive revision of Walter's civil war theory: his erasure of her \"anocracy zone\" concept.&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</span></span></span>​​<span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"> </span></span></span><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"> </span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"></span></span></span>​<br></div><div><div><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"><em>​</em></span></span></span><br></div><div><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"><em></em></span></span></span><br></div><div><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><strong><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><em>Click on links below to continue with the series.</em></span></strong></span><br></div><div><br></div></div>","verticalAlignment":"top"},"metaData":{"position":{"left":-70,"top":1078},"size":{"width":644,"height":9983}}},{"type":"freeText","id":"id1793063744598","elementProperties":{"tagName":"DIV","behaviours":null,"isLocked":false,"name":"Text 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style=\"font-size:16px;\">​</span></span>​<br></li></ul><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span></span>​<br></div><ul><li class=\"theme-text-color-4-3\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span></span><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><u><a href=\"https://editor.homestead.com/david-betz-barbara-f-walter-the-civil-war-predictive-model-controversy\" data-attached-link=\"{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;Pages&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;id1793063744586&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;David Betz &amp; Barbara F. Walter: The Civil War Predictive Model Controversy&quot;}\" class=\"wz-link internal-link\">David Betz &amp; Barbara F. Walter</a></u><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">: The Civil War Predictive Model&nbsp;Controversy</span><br></li></ul><div><br></div><ul><li class=\"theme-text-color-4-3\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span></span><u><a href=\"https://editor.homestead.com/david-betz-s-civil-war-subterfuge-erasing-barbara-f-walter-s-anocracy-zone-concept\" data-attached-link=\"{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;Pages&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;id1793073976870&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;David Betz's Civil War Subterfuge: Erasing Barbara F. 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style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size:16px;\"><strong><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">Commentator or Terrorist Agitator? David Betz&nbsp; and&nbsp;His Anti-Muslim “Civil War” – Part II</span></strong></span><br></div><div style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span></strong><br></div><div style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">A Muslim Response</span></strong><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">Betz posits that civil war requires two key ingredients: a government perceived as illegitimate and factionalism, in which subgroups compete while the majority feels “downgraded”. He adds the economic downturn as a further factor, which has led to an increase in the cost of living.</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">​</span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">The two main drivers are linked: distrust against the government and between social groups is due to multiculturalism. From the perspective of the “native” population, the government is the enforcer of this policy, while other groups prioritise their own interests.</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">The polarisations are exacerbated by social media and identity politics. This also leads to “intertribal conflicts”, which for him signify the “considerable irrelevance of Britishness as an aspect of the pre-political loyalty”.</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">To be clear, for Betz, the dominant factor that makes civil war is identity politics:</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">“Identity politics… is above all what makes civil conflict in the West not merely likely but practically inevitable.”&nbsp;This allows Betz to ultimately point to immigration and Muslims as the practical core problem. We will discuss this further below.</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">​</span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">He specifically points to “asymmetric multiculturalism” where “in-group preference, ethnic pride, and group solidarity, notably in voting, are acceptable for all groups except Whites”. Betz links</span> <span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">this to the Great Replacement (GR) conspiracy theory:</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">​</span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">“What has emerged [from multiculturalism] is a perception that the status quo is invidiously unbalanced… ‘Great Replacement’ theory is an expression of this narrative.”</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">The citation in his footnotes for GR theory is a book that is referenced by far-right terrorists titled, You Will Not Replace Us! by Renaud Camus.</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">GR is a conspiracy theory that rehashes the anti-Muslim neoconservative “Eurabia” conspiracy theory, which was advocated by Egyptian Jewish exile Gisele Littman (aka Bat Ye’or). Littman pushed the narrative that Europe was creating a “gigantic Muslim community” alongside a “precipitously dying European dhimmi population”. This was popularised by anti-Muslim hate preacher and pro-ethnic cleansing “Israel”-first fanatic Douglas Murray.</span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"> Eurabia and Camus’s GR are referenced by far-right terrorists Anders Breivik, who killed 77 people in Norway, and Brenton Tarrant, who killed 51 Muslims at two mosques in New Zealand. Tarrant’s manifesto, titled “The Great Replacement”, echoes much of Camus’s ideas, who viewed the “replacement” of populations by Muslims through</span> <span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">immigration as akin to colonisation, with the white race being the most threatened. He writes that immigration, which is an “invasion”, will “disenfranchise us, subvert our nations, destroy our communities… destroy our culture”.</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">Given these factors, Betz concludes rather deterministically that “society has already passed the tipping point after which prevention of the eruption of violent civil conflict is impossible.” Once the civil war begins, the native population will aim to exterminate and remove the Muslim population.</span></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><strong><span style=\"font-size:12px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;muslimsceptic.com</span></span></strong><br></div><div><span style=\"font-size:11px;\"><strong><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;March 30, 2026</span></strong></span><br></div><div><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div><div><strong><span style=\"font-size:11px;\"><span class=\"theme-text-color-4-3\"><u><a href=\"https://muslimskeptic.com/2026/03/30/commentator-terrorist-agitator-david-betz-iii/\" data-attached-link=\"{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;Web&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://muslimskeptic.com/2026/03/30/commentator-terrorist-agitator-david-betz-iii/&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;https://muslimskeptic.com/2026/03/30/commentator-terrorist-agitator-david-betz-iii/&quot;}\" class=\"wz-link\">​</a><a href=\"https://muslimskeptic.com/2026/03/16/commentator-terrorist-agitator-david-betz-2/\" data-attached-link=\"{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;Web&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://muslimskeptic.com/2026/03/16/commentator-terrorist-agitator-david-betz-2/&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;https://muslimskeptic.com/2026/03/16/commentator-terrorist-agitator-david-betz-2/&quot;}\" class=\"wz-link\">To read more...</a></u></span></span></strong><span class=\"theme-text-color-3-4\"></span><br></div>","verticalAlignment":"top"},"metaData":{"position":{"left":-690,"top":2463},"size":{"width":343,"height":1389}}},{"type":"freeText","id":"id1793063744608","elementProperties":{"tagName":"DIV","behaviours":null,"isLocked":false,"name":"Text 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