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Strategy
FOR THE LONG TERM AGGRESSIVE INVESTOR
By: Larry Chlebina
- an AGGRESSIVE INDUSTRY BASED VALUE INVESTMENT PROCESS
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The Tiger Strategy starts with the number one cause of price movement in a stock – industry trends*. The Strategy seeks out value opportunities in industries that are at extreme cyclical or economic lows. These industries are evaluated for obsolescence (are they needed in the future?). If the industry is not obsolete, then by definition, the industry cannot fail and stronger companies within it should recover. Most of the work involved in the Strategy involves understanding the industry dynamics:
•Cause of industry decline
•Industry response to the decline
•Recovery response: Cyclical or singular event(s)
•Recovery timing
•Recovery magnitude
When an industry appears to be poised for recovery, companies within it are evaluated for their potential and fundamental strengths. A basket of these companies which are viewed to have the most potential are then selected for investment. This basket approach seeks to reduce company specific risk, while making the investment more of an industry bet.
Several industry baskets are invested at any time to form a portfolio. Each stock within the portfolio has a target price which may change with changing circumstances. Once the target price is approached, the stock is usually sold.
*CDA/Wiesenberger 1981-1996 Study \"Causes of Stock Price Movement\"
3/07
Securities offered by Registered Representatives through Private Client Services, Member FINRA/ SIPC. Advisory products and services offered by Investment Advisory Representatives through Chlebina Capital Management, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor that only conducts business in jurisdictions where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Private Client Services and Chlebina Capital Management, LLC are unaffiliated entities. For a list of a Registered Representative’s current registered states, please visit FINRA’s BrokerCheck. Registration is not an endorsement of the firms by securities regulators and does not mean the advisor has achieved a specific level of skill or ability.
An index is a portfolio of specific securities, the performance of which is used in our strategy as a benchmark in judging the relative performance of certain asset classes. Indexes are unmanaged portfolios and investors cannot invest directly in an index. The index returns are \"Total Returns\" with dividends reinvested, which means the return is not only the change in price for the securities in the index, but any income generated by those securities. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any particular investment. Index returns do not represent the performance of Chlebina Capital or any of its advisory clients.
All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Different types of investments involve higher and lower levels of risk. There is no guarantee that a specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for an investor’s portfolio. Asset allocation, rebalancing, and diversification will not necessarily improve an investor's returns and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. There is no guarantee that target allocations will be achieved or maintained. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals, and economic conditions may materially change how well your portfolio performs.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Historical performance returns for investment indexes and/or categories usually do not deduct transaction and/or custodial charges, or advisory fees, which would decrease historical performance results. There are no assurances that an investor’s portfolio will match or exceed a specific benchmark.